$DXY last gasp before the monetary reset. Sad.3-3-5 watching the expected rejection at the median line of the channel probably before pivoting and falling out the bottom. Sad times for many..
USDX trade ideas
U.S. Dollar (USD Index) Nears Key Support at 97.4
The U.S. dollar approaches key support at 97.4, with strong selling pressure recently. A shift to the upside may not happen quickly, but we could see a potential rebound in Q3.
dxy aka usd 22 April 2025Price seems to be ranging, if top channel hold, we could see a retest of the low, meaning usd should continue lower.
Good luck
DXY – Time & Price Analysis via Gann GeometryThe TVC:DXY just broke below the 1×1 descending angle within a Gann weekly square, confirming the end of the bullish cycle initiated around the September 2022 high.
Key observations:
📉 Next time–price supports: 89.91 → 84.95
🕰️ Major timing intersections ahead:
Dec 16, 2024 → marks a quarter cycle completion.
Sep 8, 2025 → opposite timing leg to Sep 2022 high.
RSI is weakening, but price remains a function of time.
If these time zones hold, a reversal window opens.
Otherwise, we're heading deeper into the southern square.
📐 Time governs trend – price obeys.
#Gann #TimeCycles #DXY #USD #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
DXYU.S Dollar Index
- Breakout of Demand Zone
- Exp FIAT as an corrective pattern in Long Time Frame
- Change of Characteristics
- Break of Structure
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " AB " Corrective Waves
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Part Two)📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar: Part Two 🔄🔥
Part 1:
As we kick off the week on April 21st, we find gold hitting historic highs of $3,400 while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to slide — down 1.42% and firmly below the psychological 100 level. 📉 The breakdown at 99.3 confirms what we mapped out months ago.
Back in February, I highlighted the rejection at the 107.5 level and predicted that 2025 would mark The Year of the Normalized Dollar. That vision is unfolding exactly as drawn.
🔍 Technical Breakdown Recap
Rejection Zone: 107.5
Mid Support Breached: 100.95
Breakdown Level: 99.3
Next Target Range: 94.6–93.7 🧭
The visuals attached here are not new drawings — this is the same framework from my February 25th analysis, and it's playing out beautifully. 📊 The DXY is on a structural path toward normalization, aligning with macro policy shifts.
🗣️ Policy Catalyst
The dollar’s weakness isn’t just technical — it’s political and economic. Trump’s continued pressure on the Fed to slash interest rates, combined with tariff talk and geopolitical realignment, is creating a push toward a weaker but more "normalized" dollar.
From the Executive Order remarks on Jan 23, 2025:
“I'd like to see interest rates come down a lot. When oil comes down, prices come down — and then no inflation.”
These aren't just words — they're shaping market expectations and price action.
💬 Is this the soft landing the Fed is hoping for? Or the beginning of something bigger for DXY bears?
Drop your thoughts below and let’s keep the conversation rolling.
🎯 Charts attached for reference.
📢 Follow for more macro breakdowns & chart-focused insights.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
DXY Roadmap April 2025This was the highest likelihood trade based on Trumpian policy and asymmetric positioning at the start of the year. People will never learn it seems
dollar index just as explained in my videos, we can see it has been bearish a some while now, so price action would tell us our right direction on this index. watch and follow for more
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar! 🔥
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness after breaching key support levels. With interest rate cuts on the horizon and a shift in economic policy, we may be entering a new phase for the dollar’s normalization.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Resistance: 107.5 (Immediate resistance)
🔹 Key Mid Support: 100.95 (Next major level)
🔹 Final Target: 94.8 (Major support & potential bottom)
📰 Fundamental Factors Driving the Move
💡 Trump’s Dollar Policy: Historically, Trump has favored a weaker dollar to boost exports. His recent remarks during the Executive Order signing on January 23, 2025, reinforce this stance, as he pushes for interest rate cuts and lower energy costs.
Remarks by President Trump at Executive Order Signing (January 23, 2025):
Q: Mr. President, you said earlier that you would like to see interest rates come down.
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.
Q: How much would you like to see them come down?
THE PRESIDENT: A lot.
Q: And will you talk with Powell?
THE PRESIDENT: I’d like to see them come down a lot, and oil prices will come down. And when oil prices come down, everything is going to be cheaper for the American people — and actually for the world — but for the American people. So, I’d like to see oil prices come down.
Q: Are you worried that there’s too much going on at once if you’re trying to bring interest rates down and get the economy back going?
THE PRESIDENT: No, no. It just works that way. I mean, it just economically works that way. When the oil comes down, it’ll bring down prices, then you won’t have inflation, and then the interest rates will come down.
Q: You said that you would demand that the interest rates come down. Do you expect the Fed to listen to you?
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.
📉 What’s Next for the Dollar?
🔸 If 100.95 breaks, we could see further downside, testing the 94.8 region.
🔸 A retest of resistance at 107.5 would be a key test before further declines.
🔸 The global macro environment (oil prices, inflation, and geopolitical shifts) will heavily influence the dollar’s trajectory.
🌍 Economic & Geopolitical Impact
Beyond monetary policy, Trump’s trade and labor policies are also playing a role in shaping the inflation outlook. His push for tariffs and tighter immigration policies has led to higher labor costs, causing short-term inflation. However, on the global stage, Trump's potential deal with Putin to resolve the Ukraine conflict could help ease inflation worldwide by stabilizing supply chains and reducing geopolitical risks.
With Trump pushing for rate cuts, the Fed under pressure, and DXY losing momentum, could we see a full-scale dollar correction in 2025? Let’s discuss! ⏬
📢 Follow for more macro insights & market analysis!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
.DXY M30 ANALYSIS UPDATES
🕒 **DXY M30 Analysis**
📉 Price touched the **support zone** at **97.70 – 97.78** after a strong sell-off.
🔁 A **potential reversal** is forming at this level – key area to watch!
📈 If bulls take control, next targets:
- 🔹 **98.60** (interim resistance)
- 🔹 **99.62 – 99.70** (major resistance zone)
⚠️ Keep an eye on price action around 98.06 – confirmation needed before any long entries.
#DXY #M30 #ForexAnalysis #USD #ReversalZone 🚀📊
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Dollar has next 4 years (Be greedy when others are fearful)The world is changing fast, and the next four years may be strong for the U.S. dollar . This is not random— it's part of a cycle . Greed-fear cycle
Right now, humanity is entering a time where AI will take over most service-based jobs . Lawyers, designers, consultants—even coders—are slowly being replaced by machines. The entire service economy is becoming automated.
When that happens, only countries with real manufacturing will survive.
That’s why what President Trump said earlier about “bringing back manufacturing” makes full sense now.
When services become automated, tangible assets rise.
And the dollar may lead this shift.
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the 100 mark in April 2025 due to a combination of trade tensions, shifting investor sentiment, and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. Key reasons include:
1. Trade War and Tariff Impact
President Donald Trump's imposition of aggressive tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese imports) and China’s retaliatory tariffs have sparked fears of a full-blown global trade war. This has unsettled financial markets, leading investors to reduce exposure to U.S. assets and the dollar.
The tariffs have disrupted trade flows, increased inflationary pressures, and raised concerns about slower economic growth in the U.S., which undermines the dollar’s appeal.
2. Declining Safe-Haven Demand
Traditionally, the dollar benefits as a safe-haven currency during global uncertainty. However, in 2025, investors are increasingly turning to gold, which hit record highs above $3,300and headed to 3400 as an alternative safe haven. This shift reflects doubts about the dollar’s reliability amid trade tensions and fiscal imbalances.
3. Concerns Over U.S. Economic Growth and Recession Risks
Rising fears of a U.S. recession, fueled by tariff-induced economic headwinds and slowing corporate earnings, have dampened confidence in the dollar.
The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and signals of potential rate cuts later in 2025 have also contributed to weakening the dollar, as lower interest rates reduce the currency's yield advantage.
4. Political and Policy Uncertainty
Market unease has been heightened by President Trump’s public threats to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence and future monetary policy direction.
Political noise and uncertainty over trade negotiations, especially with China, have further pressured the dollar.
5. Technical and Market Sentiment Factors
Technically, the DXY has broken below key support levels, including the 200-day simple moving average (~104.6) and the psychologically important 100 level, signaling bearish momentum.
Summary Table of Factors Driving DXY Below 100
Factor Impact on DXY
Trade War Tariffs = Reduced dollar demand, increased volatility
Shift to Gold as Safe Haven= Dollar loses safe-haven status
U.S. Economic Slowdown Fears= Weaker growth outlook dampens dollar strength
Fed Policy Uncertainty = Rate cut expectations reduce dollar yield
Political Risks = Fed independence concerns add to uncertainty
Technical Breakdown = Breach of key supports fuels bearish momentum
Conclusion
The DXY’s fall below 100 reflects a complex mix of trade-related economic risks, diminished safe-haven demand, political uncertainty, and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Unless these issues ease—such as through trade deal progress, clearer Fed guidance, or economic stabilization—the dollar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
DXY BEARISH LONG TERM I've been in this trade since January, thought I posted it. Anyways Longterm its bearish to 85K region if price doesn't close strong the redline
Long term Long!Hello all. as you see my last Long term forecast was exact and I think it is time to go up. it is risky.(wink)
Bearish sentiment on the USD index (DXY)TVC:DXY
On this trading week (April 14-18), we have not seen much volatility in the USD index, with its highest trading point at approximately 100.3 and lowest 99.2, partly due to a long bank holiday for Good Friday and Easter on the following Monday. On last week's Friday, price briefly tapped into the weekly demand zone and gave a quick reaction upwards to the 4-hour supply zone, which then quickly rejected and cooled price back down. Currently, price is still sitting at the lower point of the weekly range, we can expect DXY to have a very short-term push back to this strong 4-hour swap zone above, possibly creating a higher high, before pushing it back down. Price is very likely to take out the weekly lows and continue to push towards the bottom of the weekly demand zone.
On fundamentals, Bank of America's analysts had identified close relationship of its depreciating USD, with its falling US asset and equities values. Economic activities have also declined due to trade wars and huge uncertainty of the upcoming policy changes by the Trump administration; asset managers and central banks may also continue to sell USD. Besides, the US is very likely to continue reducing its interest rates in order to boost its economic activity. One of the reasons why Trump imposed high tariffs into many countries was to reduce international dependency on the manufacturing sector and trade deficits, and to attract foreign investments to set up factories in the US, in order to sell to consumers at the 'good price'. However, it is still very controversial on how effective it is, business owners abroad may perceive Trump's policies as bipolar, which changes depending on his mood, therefore, majority of businesses would rather partner elsewhere than to put themselves through this hassle. USD has also dropped 10% since the start of 2025 and has reached its lowest in three years.
References:
www.investing.com
www.cbsnews.com
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.22
1st Support: 97.47
1st Resistance: 101.83
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DXY bullish Here is my technical analysis on dxy and it's very looking bullish from a high timeframe of monthly to till to 4h. Buy dxy at current market.
Dollar index (DXY) Analysis DXY Analysis – General Outlook
This week’s analysis is more of a general overview, and it closely aligns with my view on EUR/USD. While I don’t trade DXY directly, I use it heavily as a confluence tool, so marking out its likely direction is key for aligning trades across other USD-related pairs.
At the moment, I’m favouring Scenario A, where I expect DXY to move a bit lower, accumulate, and then react from the 2-day demand zone. If that happens, we could see a bullish move on DXY, which would naturally result in bearish pressure for other pairs like EU and GU.
However, if price decides to retrace upwards first, there’s a clean supply zone that still needs to be mitigated. If that zone holds, DXY could continue its bearish structure for longer—meaning more bullish momentum across other major pairs.
DXY SINGLING DANGER! UPTADE! Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong....
Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower.
What a difference 2 months can make!
Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring.
CAUTION is in order!!
Target not reached! Forced on me.
As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen.
As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression!
WARNING!
DXY SINGLING DANGER!Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen!
With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming.
Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian Currency Crisis. Russian ruble & economic collapse is now a certainty! Russia has lost the war no matter what they are trying to do on the battlefield it is irrelevant as the economy is now suffering from Dutch Disease. (So Much for the BRICS fantasy!)
Most Americans believe a strong dollar is good. They are wrong. Here are a few things to know about a strong US Dollar.
1. A strong dollar weakens exports, costing American jobs as everything America made becomes more expensive to the rest of the world.
2. US Imports increase as everything internationally made becomes cheaper.
3. Acquiring USD as foreign reserves becomes much more difficult and expensive. As exporters to the US have to produce more for less $s.
4. US investment in international currency collapses, forcing inflation, rates higher making borrowing/investment in foreign economies weaker. Leading to a snowball effect.
5. Commodities are traded in USD. As such energy/food to many poor nations will become a problem as they are net importers with already limited access to NYSE:S it will be magnified.
6. Finally (I could go on but I won't you get the point) when everyone leans on one side of the boat it capsizes. Meaning when everyone is running to invest in the US & the dollar.
Techanically how high can the USD go?
-120 is likely. (hopefully not much more)
-Longer term if things get bad enough it can break all-time highs of 165 as we have this massive bottoming inverse HEAD & SHOULDERS in place. CARNAGE!
- What I hope will happen is that it hits previous recent highs of 115 and that will be it for the upside. HOWEVER!
We do have a rising structure that needs to be corrected. As such when it does correct there is a good possibility it tests previous lows.
For now, if you live in the US. enjoy dollar strength and think about how much worse inflation would have been if the $ was weakening. ))
Long till 100.267The DXY has shown bullish market structure with bullish fair value gap forming on the 4 hourly chart. Price is likely to head up to 100.267 before bearish reversal occurs.
DXY - soon to the longWe are currently withdrawing liquidity that has accumulated over a couple of years and will go to close the gaps at the top
