USDX trade ideas
[4H] DXY - Mid-Term Analysis Under Donald TrumpThe U.S. dollar experienced heightened volatility on the day of Donald Trump’s hypothetical inauguration for a second term as president, reflecting market uncertainty around his policy agenda. Below is an analysis of potential drivers for the dollar’s trajectory, incorporating short-term dynamics and longer-term risks:
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1. Tariffs, Inflation, and the Fed’s Response
A renewed push for reciprocal—and potentially universal (due to practicality)—tariffs could disrupt global trade flows, raising import costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. Coupled with an already tight labor market, these pressures could accelerate inflation. Elevated input costs (e.g., raw materials, manufactured goods) might manifest in key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as early as Q2 2024 (March-May), particularly if supply chains face renewed bottlenecks.
In this scenario, the Federal Reserve —which remains staunchly data-dependent—could respond with rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Higher interest rates would likely bolster the dollar’s appeal in the near term, attracting foreign capital seeking yield advantages in U.S. Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. Markets may price in this hawkish pivot ahead of official Fed action, amplifying short-term dollar strength.
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2. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Risks
Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric (e.g., targeting China, the EU, or emerging markets) risks sparking retaliatory measures, reviving fears of a global trade war. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty could drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. This dynamic would likely support the DXY (Dollar Index) in the short term, particularly if equity markets react negatively to protectionist policies.
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3. Long-Term Risks: Economic Slowdown and Eroded Confidence
While tariffs and inflation may initially buoy the dollar, their prolonged implementation could backfire. Sticky or increased inflation combined with higher borrowing costs (from Fed hikes) might dampen consumer spending, corporate investment, and GDP growth. Simultaneously, trade barriers could shrink export opportunities for U.S. industries, exacerbating economic headwinds.
Over a multi-year horizon, these factors could undermine confidence in the dollar’s stability, especially if deficits widen or growth stagnates ( stagflation risks ). Markets are forward-looking, however, and may begin discounting these risks earlier—potentially as soon as late 2024—if trade tensions escalate or growth indicators falter.
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Conclusion: Volatility as the Only Certainty
The dollar’s path will hinge on the speed and scale of policy implementation, the Fed’s reaction function, and global market sentiment. While short-term strength is plausible due to rate hike expectations and safe-haven flows, structural risks loom on the horizon. Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style adds layers of uncertainty, suggesting the dollar could face a turbulent, news-driven cycle. Investors should brace for whipsaw moves in the DXY, with tactical opportunities in the near term countered by longer-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
Key Watchpoints: CPI prints (Q2 2024), Fed meeting language, trade negotiation timelines, and global central bank responses to U.S. protectionism.
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This analysis balances immediate catalysts with structural shifts, acknowledging the dollar’s role as both a haven and a victim of its own policy successes.
DXYDXY approching a demand floor on daily ,the price action is strong .
if that demand holds ,then mid term gains of AUDUSD,EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY,GOLD ,SILVER,COPPER WILL be affected on technical and not on fundamental.
DXY Trading Journal Feb 13 Analysis DXY Trading Journal
Feb 13 Analysis
Price did gravitate to 15M and rebalance in Asia and London and lowered to the sell side and equal lows, Price did react and come to the 50 in NY before furthering it decline for lower prices, seeking another key low.
Note I stated yesterday that I suspected a long in NY, and it only came up to the CE of the dealers range, leading me to think that we are in fact a bearish bias.
Price is in discount on the weekly, and daily an previous sessions range.
🇺🇸 Is Trump Really Making America Great Again? Or Is DXY Telli🇺🇸 Is Trump Really Making America Great Again? Or Is DXY Telling a Different Story? 💰
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical crossroads, pulling back to weekly support while sitting at deep Fibonacci retracement levels.
This is a key area to watch—if support holds, we could see a strong rebound. But if it fails, a deeper pullback and correction may be on the horizon.
Keep an eye on this level—the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead. 📉📈
DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders
We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00.
Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
Feb 13
I like how Price did seek to complete rebalancing the Volume gap and lowered to just shy of .79. Spot on analysis, celebrate!
Then I suggested that Price would react at that level and it did.
Today Price opens in a double discount on the previous days range, and session range.
Its likely that Price will gravitate to 15M and rebalance in Asia and London. Will it lower to the sell side equal lows, before seeking higher Price in NY? News In New York which is really pushing price around in search of liquidity. Im mainly bullish looking for longs!
How I see dollar indexI see dollar index bearish in next 3 month
so we can assume and search for buys in following pairs
1. #eurusd
2. #gbpusd
3. #audusd
4. #nzdusd
5. #xauusd
6. #S&P and #NQ
Skyrocket Inflation at 3%!Previous U.S. Inflation Rate: 2.9%
New U.S. Inflation Rate: 3%
U.S inflation rate has rocketed up once again, which comes as no surprise. An excuse they’ll use to keep interest rates high, which effects the everyday person. Part of the game they’re playing📈
DXY: Dollar Surges Amid Inflation Pressures! Hi Traders
Since the CPI came in higher than expected (0.5% vs 0.3%), this signals continued inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even consider raising them if inflation continues to rise.
The dollar could gain strength 💪 due to expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish. Markets may experience significant volatility ⚠️, especially in dollar pairs and U.S. indices.
DXY Analysis Before CPI News📊 DXY Analysis Before CPI News
🔹 The price is still bouncing from the marked zone, showing some buying strength.
🔹 But be cautious! Today's CPI news will have a significant impact on the dollar.
🔹 If CPI comes in weak, we might see a bearish breakout below this zone.
🔹 On the other hand, if CPI is strong, it could support a further bounce upwards.
💬 What do you think about the possible scenarios? 🚀
DXYThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with forecasts anticipating an annual CPI increase of 2.9%, matching the previous reading. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is predicted to remain above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) target at 3.1% year-over-year. Monthly forecasts suggest a 0.3% increase in both CPI metrics.
Potential Market Impact:
US Dollar (DXY): The CPI data might influence the US Dollar’s (USD) price action in the short term. Higher-than-expected CPI figures may strengthen the USD, while lower figures could weaken it. Rising inflationary expectations may get a nod if the US CPI comes in higher than expected. The US Dollar Index is rallying off range support, opening the door for extended gains if the CPI data fuels a DXY rally.
A stronger dollar typically has a negative correlation with the price of gold, as gold is often priced in U.S. dollars while The Fed is expected to maintain its hawkish stance. The market anticipates the central bank will likely begin its easing cycle in June
there is on going Uncertainty about tariffs and trade policy change which could weigh on the US Dollar Index (DXY). The rising inflationary expectations may get a nod if the US CPI comes in higher than expected, while any new tariff announcements will likely add to the USDs appeal.
If the core CPI m/m exceeds the expected 0.3%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) could experience a boost
A higher-than-expected core CPI reading could make it more likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates
Higher interest rates typically make the dollar more attractive to investors, leading to increased demand and a stronger dollar
An increase in the CPI prints, particularly the core reading could then in theory be responsible for another leg higher in the US Dollar index (DXY
EURUSD,AUDUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY,USDZAR,USDCHF, will be watched on highers than expected data print to win in the direction of DOLLAR
possibility of uptrendIt is expected that the corrective and fluctuating trend will continue until the specified support levels are formed, then there is a possibility of a trend change and the upward trend will begin.
DXY Trading Journal Feb 12DXY Trading Journal
Feb 12
HTF price is rebalancing a weekly SIBI and a daily SIBI.
Monday Price continues to deliver in a premium, and first seeks lower prices to rebalancing the volume gap. Note how it worked the upper portion of the imbalance indicating that it is a bearish. Prices closes in the lower half of the FVG.
Note how for the daily range is so heavy it can not even make it to 50 level.
Note how price created equal highs.
Note how Price did a raid on buys stops on late Monday to set up seeking lowers prices Tuesday.
Price opens Tuesday heavy seeks to rebalance the volume imbalance and seeks the sell stops target. Classic take liquidity and lower.
Today Price is opening in a Premium on previous days range and current range. I suspect that Price will seek to complete rebalancing the Volume gap it is in right now. Potentially could come as low as the .79 level watch for reactions.
The dollar rebounds from 1.618 and exits safely to the top in thThe dollar rebounds from 1.618 and exits safely to the top in th
DXY Possible ideaDXY has been bullish for quite some time now. From what we can see, it has been breaking highs with momentum. It has recently retraced back just above an unmitigated demand zone, where lots of liquidity is currently hovering above. It could use this liquidity to fuel its move to the upside after it mitigates this demand area, breaking the latest weak high that awaits a liquidity run.
DXY 4hBearish reaction from -OB , we find support in a local OB so we should see that SIBI taken as a iFVG and print Higher to the $$$/ 50% of this local -OB after that i want to see it push harder till we go to the +OB 50% now that is a good entry point for Longs atm i m looking for Scalp Shorts from mentioned resistance area and a runner till +OB
DXY Short The weekly and daily are bearish so it just a matter of following the trend and giving that a lot of US news this week, let's watch
USD: Rates, tariffs and energy all helpThe DXY dollar index is staying relatively bid above 108.00 as markets remain gripped by the tariff threat. 'Reciprocal' tariffs could be due any day and the market remains uncertain whether these would apply only to certain key sectors, such as autos, pharma or semiconductors – or more broadly. US President Donald Trump is supposedly set to sign another batch of executive orders today at 1600CET, so let's see.
Also helping the dollar have been energy prices. The Rest of the World views purchases of US LNG as a key balm to soothe impending tariffs. This week it is Indian energy importers ready to sign new LNG deals ahead of PM Narendra Modi's visit to Washington. This comes at a time when natural gas prices are rising as Europe deals with a cold snap and declining Russian gas imports. Higher gas prices and more geopolitical deals to purchase US LNG are dollar-positive.
It is a quiet day on the US data calendar, where US small business optimism should largely hold onto the surge seen after last November's election result. In focus, however, will be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate at 1600CET. We doubt he needs to sound any more dovish at the moment and we see his speech as a neutral/positive event risk for the dollar.
DXY could nudge up towards the 109.00 area if Trump announces broader reciprocal tariffs today.
Dollar index prediction.A. If You’re Looking to Go Long (Buy):
Entry Point 1: Wait for a breakout above 108.064. Look for a candle closing above this resistance with strong volume to confirm the breakout.
Entry Point 2: If the price pulls back to 107.700 (support level) and shows bullish reversal signals (like a hammer candle or bullish engulfing pattern), consider entering a buy position.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below 107.700 to protect against a false breakout or a larger downtrend.
Take-Profit: Target the upper resistance level near 108.800.
B. If You’re Looking to Go Short (Sell):
Entry Point 1: If the price gets rejected at 108.064 and shows bearish signals (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing), consider entering a short position.
Entry Point 2: If the price breaks below 107.700 and retests this level from below, it confirms a potential downtrend.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss just above 108.064 or above the retest candle.
Take-Profit: Target the lower trendline near 107.200.
DXY Dollar $ Dollar update, im looking at this chart seeing just a buy opportunity to daily Buyside LQ zone or maybe higher then were looking for a sell after that
Bullish dollarIf price breaks above the resistance zone above, wait for retest and ride long. Dollar to a new all time high.
