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USDX trade ideas

BULLISH REVERSALThe frame of a possible trade On the Daily time frame, going back to what we can identify as the parent move price gapped to the upside, filled with wicks and candles, price moves to the upside leaving short-term lows(STL) Price retraced and took liquidity at STL On the Daily time frame, price expands violating a Daily Sell-side Imbalance Buy-side Inefficiency 05/29/25 Price gapped up, taking out liquidity at a STH If this price action implies bullishness, then price will have to take/deliver some form of sellside This is happening ahead of the Core PCE Price Index Data release on Friday 30/05/25
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by iseetrades
Dollar At Resistance; Will Lower CPI Cause New Drop? We had a volatile start of a new trading week. The dollar moved higher across the board as the US and China appear to be moving toward lowering tariffs, suggesting progress toward a potential trade deal. As a result, stock futures are also trading to the upside. However, keep in mind that sharp moves on Monday can easily be reversed through the rest of the week, possibly even today, after US CPI came out lower than expected, which can cause some weakness on yeilds, and possibly FED will be ready to cut rates after-all. So, I think that USD can still come under pressure, especially if we also consider that rise on DXY is in three legs and that a lot fo gaps from this weekend are still unfilled.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by ew-forecast
US DOLLAR INDEX Correlation Between Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates 1. Bond Prices vs. Yields Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When bond prices rise, yields fall (e.g., demand for safe-haven assets drives prices up). When bond prices fall, yields rise (e.g., selling pressure due to inflation fears). Example: A 1% Fed rate hike can cause bond prices to drop, pushing 10-year yields up by ~1.3% . 2. 10-Year Bond Yields vs. Dollar Index (DXY) Positive Correlation: Typically, higher yields attract foreign capital into USD assets, strengthening the dollar. A 1% rise in 10-year yields historically correlates with a 1–2% DXY appreciation . Risk-Off Scenarios: Investors may flock to both Treasuries (pushing yields down) and USD (DXY↑), weakening the usual correlation . Policy Divergence: If the Fed delays rate cuts amid global easing, yields and DXY may diverge temporarily . 3. Interest Rates vs. Dollar Index (DXY) Direct Relationship: Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar by attracting yield-seeking capital. A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike can boost DXY by 1–2% . Example: In 2018, Fed rate hikes to 2.5% drove DXY gains of ~8% . Inverse Impact on Bonds: Rate hikes depress bond prices (yields rise), reinforcing the DXY-yield link . 4. Interest Rates vs. Bond Yields Policy-Driven: Fed rate changes directly influence short-term yields, while long-term yields (e.g., 10-year) reflect growth/inflation expectations. The 10-year yield often leads Fed policy shifts. For example, yields fell 150 basis points ahead of 2019 rate cuts . The 2-year Treasury yield is particularly sensitive to Fed expectations, serving as a "policy barometer" . Summary Table of Relationships Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with 10-Year Yields Bond Prices ↑ DXY ↓ (safe-haven flows weaken USD) Yields ↓ (inverse bond price-yield link) 10-Year Yields ↑ DXY ↑ (capital inflows) — Interest Rates ↑ DXY ↑ (yield appeal) Yields ↑ (policy tightening) Risk-Off Sentiment DXY ↑ (safe-haven demand) Yields ↓ (bond buying) Key Exceptions and Contexts Term Premium Dynamics: Recent 10-year yield spikes (e.g., to 4.54%) are driven by market psychology (90% due to deficits/inflation fears vs. 10% fundamentals) . Economic Growth Differentials: Stronger US GDP growth (vs. peers) supports both yields and DXY, while weak growth decouples them . Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions (e.g., US-China tariffs) can strengthen DXY as a safe haven, even if yields dip . Conclusion The Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-year bond yields generally share a positive correlation, reinforced by interest rate policies and capital flows. However, this relationship can weaken during risk-off environments or when fiscal/monetary policies diverge. Bond prices and yields remain inversely tied, while Fed rate decisions directly impact both yields and the dollar. Traders should monitor growth data, inflation trends, and central bank signals to navigate these interconnected dynamics. #DOLLAR #USD #GOLD #SILVER #COPPER
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
USD vying for Monthly Doji after April Support BounceMonthly charts are often underapprecaited by many retail traders. Sure, they're not very actionable as there's only 12 per year but they can do a great job of highlighting trends and broader market themes and, of interest for this scenario, possible turns. As a case in point, back in January the US Dollar had a full head of steam, and there was nary a bear in sight. But that month showed as a doji in the USD and in February, the tariff theme started to take over. It was a mild pullback that month but collectively, after two months of bulls stalling, many were ready to pull the plug and that's what showed in March and continued through April as the January doji led into a stern sell-off and fresh multi-year lows. In April, the USD was hit hard by a combination of tariff drama and trend continuation and a major spot of support eventually came into play around Easter Monday, taken from a trendline projection as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2022 major move. The bounce wasn't automatic, as there was a slow grind of higher-highs and higher-lows that got another boost around the FOMC rate decision earlier in May. That rally ran all the way until a major spot of resistance came into play at 102, at which sellers reacted. But at this point they've been stalled at another major spot on the chart of 98.98, which is helping to set a higher-low. And from the monthly chart, the USD is currently showing a doji on the monthly bar for May, which sets the table for a possible turn as we trade into the summer months. Key for this coming to fruition will be continued recovery in USD/JPY, which has had a major impact in the USD of late. And if we do see that theme of USD-strength continue, I still favor EUR/USD as a major pair of interest for that theme. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental AnalysisDXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental Analysis DXY has reclaimed momentum, trading at 99.300, after strong U.S. economic data and a hawkish tone from Fed officials signaled policy stability — boosting short-term confidence in the U.S. dollar. On the 15-minute chart, we’re seeing a bullish structure reinforced by clean liquidity manipulation and institutional flow. Price confirmed bullish intent after breaking above minor key resistance at 99.250, triggering a wave of buy-side momentum. A brief liquidity hunt below 99.250 followed — a textbook manipulation phase — before buyers stepped back in. DXY then formed Higher Highs and Higher Lows, indicating a well-supported uptrend. Price is now sitting inside the liquidity zone, where smart money often positions for the next leg up. 📊 Trade Setup 📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 99.140 (Buy Limit) 🛡 Stop-Loss: 98.990 (Below liquidity grab and minor support) 🎯 Take Profit: 99.610 (Next minor resistance / 1:3 RR) This setup aligns with institutional behavior, offering a high-probability entry for short-term trend continuation. 📰 Fundamental Outlook 🇺🇸 USD Strength Backed by Short-Term Fundamentals Resilient U.S. Data: Retail sales and durable goods orders beat forecasts, signaling economic strength and limiting downside for the dollar. Fed Stays Hawkish: Policymakers have reiterated their "higher for longer" stance, reducing expectations for rate cuts and supporting the dollar. Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical concerns and weak economic data abroad have driven flows back into the USD as investors seek stability. Yield Support: Elevated U.S. bond yields continue to attract foreign capital, giving additional strength to DXY. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by RebornFXTrader
Beware, the US dollar is at a technical crossroads 1) The US Dollar remains the weakest major Forex currency in 2025 The US dollar has had a difficult year on the foreign exchange market (Forex), recording a decline of over 9% against the world's major currencies, despite the Federal Reserve's continuing rigid monetary policy. Technically speaking, the DXY index has reached several theoretical bearish targets, notably according to Elliot analysis, but has not yet touched the key objective of the A=C movement. This dynamic is also evident in the strong chartist compression in weekly data, placing the USD at a potential breakout point. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs are also in long-term hinge configurations, and institutional positions remain broadly bearish on the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. Two interesting charts on the current situation are presented below: the first shows Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, and the second is a theoretical reminder of how Elliott waves work. As long as the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (DXY) remains below the indicated pivot line, the trend remains bearish, with a target of 95/96 points. Conversely, a rebound above the hinged pivot line would put an end to the US dollar's annual correction, with the starting point for a technical recovery. 2) A weakening dollar despite an inflexible Fed: how to explain this paradox? The apparent paradox of a falling US dollar while US interest rates remain high and the Fed does not expect to cut rates before September/October, goes beyond simple rate differentials. At a time when the ECB has already embarked on a policy of monetary easing, the rate differential with the Fed should normally support the USD. However, other factors are taking over: the markets' growing mistrust of US assets, fuelled by trade tensions and uncertainty over Trump's fiscal policy, is weakening demand for dollars. Added to this is a major liquidity factor: the recent increase in the money supply (M2) in the United States and the decline in reverse repo operations, which reflect an implicit easing of financial conditions. This easing is encouraging persistent downward pressure on the greenback, despite a Fed that remains intransigent on rates. The next release of US PCE inflation, scheduled for Friday May 30, could play an important catalytic role: a higher-than-expected figure would strengthen the case for an even firmer Fed, which could offer the USD a temporary technical rebound. Conversely, confirmation of disinflation would fuel bets on future easing and accentuate selling pressure. In short, the US dollar is not only at a technical crossroads, but also a fundamental one, suspended between forthcoming monetary action and deeper signals from the global liquidity market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote