Dollar under pressure, is the bear trend gonna end soon?President Trump's aggressive tariff implementations, particularly on electronics and critical imports, have introduced volatility into U.S. markets. These measures have led to decreased investor confidence and capital outflows from U.S. assets, contributing to the dollar's weakness.
There's growing concern among global investors about the reliability of U.S. economic policies. A Bank of America survey indicated record pessimism towards U.S. assets, with over 60% of fund managers anticipating further depreciation of the dollar.
The Trump administration's economic approach, informally dubbed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," aims to deliberately weaken the dollar to boost U.S. exports and reduce trade deficits. While this strategy seeks to make American goods more competitive, it risks destabilizing global financial markets and undermining the dollar's reserve currency status.
Differences in monetary policies between the U.S. and other major economies have widened. While the Federal Reserve has been cautious with rate cuts, other central banks, like the European Central Bank, have been more aggressive, making their currencies more attractive to investors.
In all these Chaos can dollar bounce back?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.23—down about 1.5% over the past week and roughly 4% lower so far in April, its worst monthly performance since mid‑2022
That 99.0–99.5 zone lines up with both the April swing lows and the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart—classic territory where “oversold” signals often lead to a rebound.
The 14‑day RSI is hovering near 30, the canonical “oversold” threshold where prior rallies have begun
Markets now price in three rate cuts by year‑end, a sharp turn from December’s hawkish Fed rhetoric. If the Fed leans dovish in the May minutes, yield differentials could narrow—supporting a dollar bounce
Heightened trade‑war uncertainty (tariffs on critical minerals, spiking gold) often drives investors back into dollars as a haven—another buffer at current lows.
Technically the chart is still bullish on daily and certainly near the support zone, both scenario are in play for now, if it continues to drop sharply towards 96 then it may totally reverse back to 107.
Considering Dollar bottom is near we can plan a swing trade with a huge potential, with awesome risk and reward.
Good luck trade safe.
