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VIX trade ideas

VIX structure is becoming like 2022 pointing to deeper dipThe VIX is following similar pattern to 2022 and gradually increasing. Using that pattern, I can compare current spx to 2022 and draw a channel to 2022. then we have a way down to go. I also agree with ContraryTrader's post on spy specially his observation on Wyckoff distribution. I have been following the news and I know that big investors like Warren Buffet and Michael Burry have been selling heavily last year because it was overvalued. So if they have sold off, would they buy back with 10% correction? They would be looking at at least 30% correction before they start buying back. Now combine that with tariff wars!
CBOE:VIXShort
by krisoz
Stocks and Yields Signal Trouble as VIX Approaches Key ResistancThe Volatility Index (VIX), commonly known as the market's "fear gauge," has reached a critical juncture, testing the pivotal 2-year support/resistance level at 18.80. Following a dramatic 40% decline from its recent high of 29.20 to 17.32, the VIX has established a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicative of an imminent breakout. Major U.S. indices, including Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow futures, and the 10-year Treasury yield, are retreating from recent rebounds, which increasingly resemble a classic "dead cat bounce" rather than sustainable recovery. The alignment of these indicators suggests the market sentiment remains fragile, raising the probability of further downside momentum. Technical Breakdown Volatility Index (VIX) The VIX is testing critical resistance at 18.80 after rebounding from the 17.30 zone. A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed, signalling potential volatility expansion. Immediate Bullish Scenario: Holding above 18.80 targets an initial rise toward 21.25 (triangle midpoint). A break above this level significantly increases the odds of a climb to 22.80 and subsequently to the triangle's upper boundary at 25.24. Beyond 25.24, the VIX could quickly escalate toward prior resistance zones at 26.75 and the recent high of 29.20. Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below 17.30 would temporarily alleviate bearish equity pressures but remains unlikely in the current uncertain climate.
TVC:VIXLong
by Rotuma
Go Long on VIX Amid Elevated Market VolatilityKey Insights: The current market scenario is characterized by significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, making the VIX an essential indicator for investors. With the VIX priced at 21.77, close attention should be paid to support and resistance levels, as a breach could provide actionable trading signals. Maintaining a long position on the VIX could be advantageous amidst ongoing market instability and the potential for further fluctuations. - Price Targets: For those considering a long position, the following targets and stops are recommended next week: - Target 1 (T1): 22.60 - Target 2 (T2): 23.50 - Stop Level 1 (S1): 21.20 - Stop Level 2 (S2): 20.60 - Recent Performance: The VIX has experienced heightened activity recently, reflecting the market's sensitivity to various risk factors, including geopolitical issues and tech market fluctuations. The current level near 21.77 points towards a phase where volatility remains above average, suggesting ongoing investor concern. - Expert Analysis: Market experts suggest maintaining vigilance in the face of potential volatility spikes. The consensus indicates that despite recent fluctuations, there is cautious optimism for relief rallies. Taking a strategic and disciplined approach amid the current market conditions is suggested, focusing on long-term quality assets while using the VIX as a barometer for short-term volatility. - News Impact: The pending FOMC meeting stands as a significant event that could influence market volatility levels. Geopolitical developments and economic data releases, such as retail sales, are also set to impact market dynamics. Notably, volatility in tech stocks and companies like Tesla demonstrates market sensitivity to external events, highlighting the importance of the VIX as an indicator under current market conditions.
TVC:VIXLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
4
VIX PARABOLIC means MAJOR DROP, we are on that zone now. After VIX's massive breakout this past few weeks -- rendering the market helpless bringing forth a bleeding season, VIX is bound for a major drop after tapping a strong resistance level. That parabolic move should warrant a weighty trim down ahead in the next few weeks. Expect markets across the board, from equities/crypto/fx majors/gold to bounce big from here on. Ideal opportunity to enter here relative to your preferred asset to trade. Spotted at 27.85 Interim target 20.0 Mid Target 15.0
TVC:VIXShort
by JSAL
1
Direct relationship between JAP 10 year yield and VIX?With reference to my previous posts on the inverse relationship between the VIX and USBTC, I want to give another instrumental relationship to monitor the trend of VIX in order to get some clues on the inverse trend of USBTC through that. The 10 year Japanese Gov. yield is in direct relationship to the VIX, though not too detailed but in line with its trends and major movements. As long we can expect the 10yJAP to increase - as it can be predicted right now due to rising inflation in Japan - we can expect the VIX as well to be elevated or rising. A break of the 10yJAP trend can be indicative of a change in the trend of the VIX and USBTC as well.
CBOE:VIX
by Woerle
Harmonic Potentials On SPY & VIX Signal Huge ReversalUsing a harmonic pattern detection script developed by reees alongside RSI with a 15 minute timeframe, we see that AMEX:SPY has a huge upside potential to ~$588 while the TVC:VIX is showing that it has a high chance to sell off. With the RSI break above its moving average for AMEX:SPY and below the moving average for TVC:VIX , the patterns potential completion is strengthened. Usually, based on historical data, when both these instruments show an anti-symmetric pattern potential, it typically has a high chance of succeeding and reaching the potential price zone.
TVC:VIX
by Zimad
1
Backwardated Volatility Curve: A Thesis on Fear and OpportunityWhen the ephemeral grip of fear tightens, it often manifests as a divergence in the volatility landscape. Specifically, when the immediate dread, captured by spot VIX, surges beyond the horizon of longer-term anxieties, represented by VIX 3M, a unique market condition arises: the inverted, or backwardated, volatility term structure. Beyond a mere statistical anomaly, this phenomenon paints a vivid portrait of market psychology. The thesis posits that such an inversion reflects a market bracing for immediate shocks, a perception of heightened risk that overshadows longer-term outlooks. In essence, fear is front-loaded. The implications are profound. This surge in short-term implied volatility, driven by a desperate scramble for immediate protection via options, can trigger dramatic price swings. In its heightened state, the market often succumbs to panic, driving asset prices lower. Yet, the contrarian thesis finds its footing in this very panic, this acute manifestation of fear. The core argument rests on the dichotomy between panic and fundamentals. While short-term volatility spikes may reflect a visceral reaction to immediate threats, the longer-term view, as expressed by VIX 3M, suggests a belief in the eventual dissipation or moderation of these uncertainties. Thus, the inversion becomes a signal, a potential harbinger of near-term capitulation. Historically, when spot VIX eclipses VIX 3M to levels associated with market troughs, astute observers recognize an opportunity. The logic is compelling: once the immediate storm passes, spot VIX should revert, realigning with or falling below VIX 3M. This normalization and the potential for a stock market rebound form the basis of the contrarian play. The underlying principle is that volatility, by its nature, exhibits mean reversion. Extreme deviations, such as a significantly elevated spot VIX relative to longer-term measures, are often unsustainable. The expectation is that volatility will normalize, paving the way for market stabilization or a resurgence. However, a critical caveat remains. The backwardated curve is not a panacea. It can reflect genuine, persistent risks. Major unforeseen events can sustain or even amplify the inversion. Therefore, a contrarian stance is inherently risky. Yet, for those who believe in the market's tendency to overreact, the inverted volatility curve transcends a mere threat. It becomes an opportunity, a moment where the market's fear, though palpable, may be fleeting, paving the way for potential gains. This thesis invites a nuanced perspective, urging traders to discern between transient panic and enduring risk and to recognize the potential for opportunity within perceived chaos.
CBOE:VIXLong
by JonLamb
Vix Showing us Relief Ahead? The market volatility has taken a toll on many emotions over the last 2 weeks as we have broken many records for fear, panic, and short interest in the market. It is very clear that this drop has spooked many market participants out of their positions. However, statistics do suggest that these opportunities generally lead to rallies as the market reaches extreme oversold conditions. Above, I have illustrated a potential Bearish Harmonic pattern, with the key fibonacci retracement levels marked on the pivots. The VIX chart illustrates the nature of the Call / Put relationship, by representing panic levels above 20. As we can see , this harmonic pattern would suggest that a rally may be coming in the near future as panic begins to decline, or as the short traders start getting squeezed out of the market.
TVC:VIXShort
by afurs1