SPY Getting Ready To Break DownI have not posted in a while. My goal is to post weekly updates. I incorporate several indicators for my market sentiment model, including interest rates, EM capital flows, and gold.
All indicators are based on academic papers, most notably several by Wouter Keller.
Sentiment Model Indicators:
Interest Rates: Flipped defensive today
EM: Defensive since Feb 2nd
Gold: Defensive since Feb 2nd
We are now in a defensive regime. Financial conditions are showing signs of tightening, with HYG being the leading candidate. Markets are coming around to the idea that inflation will be higher for longer (CPI, employment, etc), and earnings compression will need to take place.
Technically, the SPY is forming a Wykoff distribution pattern. I am looking to take risk off before a breakdown lower to 380 over the next several weeks. A sustained rally above 418 will void the distribution pattern.
Comments are welcome!
VIX trade ideas
VIX .... Heads UpThis market has been in a 4 1/2 month decline.
Traditionally this market moves inversely to the SPX. Although...not so much recently.
Technically this looks like it's set up for a good risk reward trade.
This scenario fits into my expected correction in the ES in the near term. See my posted SPX idea linked below..
Market ending the last Up leg in the QQQ SP 500 ALL INDEXES The Lack of follow through on the Sp to reach what should be the min target of 4222 with the breaking down of the vix minus 8.75% today is telling me that the final up leg ideal target was 4222 min ideal 4308 is setting up to now Break ALL THE LOWS .
Vix.. The BluePrint Falling wedge.
Gapped up to resistance Friday and today, both led to rejections. Vix actually gapped outside its Bollinger bands 2 days in a row. A hold outside its Bollinger band is not sustainable with News/Catalyst.
CPI tomorrow will decide if the Vix breaks out and Equities correct or Vix heads to 17 and Equities rally.
There is a nasty double top on the hourly that will take this back to 18 quick if tomorrow turns bullish.
What Does VIX Tell Us ?The VIX pattern in yellow lines signals a high level of fear or stress in the stock market likely ahead of us, it appears we might have toped on many major indexes as well as Bitcoin. With huge uncertainty regarding big tech earnings and FOMC meeting in the following days Vix looks like a buyable dip. Specially if we borrow Elliot Wave rules this pattern looks valid, given how well i know them, this particular pattern could go right 80+ percent of time.
" This idea could turnout completely wrong "
Do your own DD
$Vix - BreakoutYeah bix is actually broken as heck, not really being used properly anymore as the big guys have found other sources of buying/selling volatility. Vix is being used only intermittently now whenever other sources are not available.
That being said, i think the Vix is braking out. I wouldn't touch it though due to the reasons i mentioned above. I've opted into buying SQQQ instead which is still well in use.
VIX: Another Warning Sign!Hello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX).
In this chart, you can see the VIX moving along a support trendline. When the VIX spikes upwards that means the markets (specifically S&P 500; generally all markets) start to move downwards. Every few years the VIX starts to slowly move upwards on a new support and resistance trend line before coming back down to the bottom support line. The current structure of the VIX looks very similar to the formation of the Great Recession so I show that on the chart as a possibility. I also note two support and resistance lines which the VIX could move on as it moves higher. Lastly noted is the RSI which is moving up a support line. This is a monthly chart so have some patience.
I may be completely wrong with the prediction of the VIX moving higher, but with the inflation issue, global economic condition, stock markets crashing, companies preparing for a downturn, interest rates moving higher, the US Dollar Index (DXY) moving higher and crypto market crashing, I would assume my prediction may be on point.
Click on the chart below on why I exited the crypto and stock market in December 2021:
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk