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US Volatility Index

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VIX trade ideas

VIX - A strong warning to inexperienced investors! In September 2022, we warned investors about the volatility creeping back into the market and set price targets of 30 USD and 35 USD. Subsequently, in the following days after our warning, VIX skyrocketed, hit our price target of 30 USD, and halted its rise at 34.88 USD. Despite the index halting its climb merely 0.12 USD below our price target, we remain very bullish. Indeed, we still expect our short-term price target of 35 USD to be reached within days or weeks. However, we believe that VIX will not stop there but will continue higher, increasing the odds of a market crash. In our opinion, once VIX breaks above the range shown in the title picture, the market volatility conditions will start to resemble the market crash in 2020. That would align with what we outlined about the general stock market progressing into the second stage of the bear market, which will be confirmed by declining corporate earnings over time. As a result, we expect trading conditions to become substantially more challenging; therefore, we voice a word of caution to inexperienced and lay traders. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of VIX and two trendlines highlighting the uptrend. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Nasdaq continuous futures, which have declined more than 30%. Additionally, the graph shows other major U.S. indices, all in the bear market territory. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
If fear continues to dump, it might be lights out for the bears!Traders, Everything is playing out exactly as anticipated. U.S. Dollar topped. S&P500 looks to be double-bottoming. Bitcoin has broken to the top side of a year-long bullish descending wedge. And fear continues to dump. If all these charts continue to work in correlation together, it might be indicating "lights out" for those bears. Watch these things closely or follow me as I keep you all up to date on the progress on all. Best, Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
1
VIX - Volatility is likely to continue higher In tandem with our expectations, VIX reached our short-term price target of 30 USD during the FED meeting, constituting a new high. This development hints at a deepening bear market, which foreshadows a more significant spike in volatility over the coming months. We draw this conclusion from a combination of factors. These include fundamental factors on the level of central banks, like higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and technical factors associated with major stock market indices, all pointing to more weakness ahead. Due to that, we have no reason to change our bullish bias on the volatility index. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 35 USD; however, we would like to change it from a medium-term price target to a short-term price target. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
14
VIX Another RejectionIt looks like VIX 4hr has had yet another rejection off the key structure resistance. There were quite a few big out of the money call buyers on the Nov 16 calls and they all cashed in at resistance again which is always interesting to watch. This is mostly institutional buyers. Meanwhile the retail stock option traders are holding record put options on stocks totaling over 34 million contracts. Was it a massive bear trap that we saw on stocks? Time will tell how much short covering we see in this attempted rally.
CBOE:VIX
by TheTradersBias
VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 14.08% for this week, decrising from the 14.3% from the last week. Currently there is around 35.5% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 37.72 BOT 28.28 The current volatility percentile is around 15th. With this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 12.73% AVG weekly bear candle = 9.15% With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around TOP 37.2 BOT 29.98 At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bearish candle, there is currently a 37% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 35, and there is a 60% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 29.4 From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 92% agreement that the market is in a bearish trend ( the current price is above those moving averages) News that can affect the price of this asset this week: - Monday 3 October : ISM PMI - Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job - Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release - Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report - Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
TVC:VIXLong
by exlux
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the $VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario. From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022. This head fake has allowed the $VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run. It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the $VIX right into the midterm elections... To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on $SPY $QQQ and $DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer. Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg. Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on the volatility of $VIX $TLT and $DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
TVC:VIXLong
by zwburger