Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 26 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
Unfortunately I woke up to my positions from yesterday being taken out at entry :(
I did take one third partial profit last night a few minutes before closing as I knew it was a risk to leave it open overnight (especially as the D candle was about to close red below the day 0.618 sell fib level) and I wanted some reward for yesterday's trading.
M TF - remains bullish and sets the tone of the overall, big picture, market sentiment.
W TF - looking at the line chart and imagining this week's candle would be dominated by bears, one can see a potential weekly DT neckline at the yellow highlight. If candles start closing below this point then the market would turn very bearish.
D TF - Yesterday the D candle closed red below the D 0.618 sell fib level. This is a bearish signal and bulls will need strength to break this level upwards.
4H - drawing the sell fib from swing hight at B. to swing low at A., it is evident that the 4H 0.50 sell fib level lines up with the pivot point (an area of confluence for a sell) and the 4H 0.618 sell fib level lines up with the D 0.618 sell fib level (super strong area of confluence). Bulls will need incredible strength and momentum to break these levels upwards. Need to watch out. But the 23:00 4H candle closed with a very long wick down to the higher TF's buy fib levels. This indicates that buyers stepped in at these levels.
All Lower TF EMA's are below price at time of writing (4H, 1H and 30min) this might provide dynamic support to help boost price upwards. Note - 4H EMA drawn in by me indicated the position of the EMA at some point in the day, now, many hours after, the EMA has moved.
If the 4H candle closes at 7am, creating a DB with the neckline broken upwards, I will enter.
As the day progressed:
The 4H candle that closes at 7am (in my time zone) did indeed close higher than the neckline and break the neckline upwards
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on 4H TF formed with the neckline broken upwards (indicated by the blue lines). At the same time there was a kind of DB / H&S on the 1H TF.
2. S&R - At time of market pattern formation, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support. We also have a strong 4H resistance turned to support area (refer to yesterday's post about keeping 5x 4H candles down)
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - as a trend trader I always want to trade with the trend. Get in on a retracement (indicated by fib levels) and then ride the trend.
4. Fib - DB forming right above the 4H 0.618 fib level
5. Candlesticks - 2 x long wick 4H candles wicking down to the D 0.50 fib level, indicating a strong bullish reaction at this level. Candles are also closing above the 4H EMA which shows bullish strength.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line roughly half the height of the 4H DB, but below the 4H EMA for extra protection. I always use mental stops because Nas is so wild and volatile that hard stops will often take you out at a loss. For me, what matters is how candles close.
Price ultimately went my way and I closed the majority of my positions at the higher hand icon, when a DT formed on the 5min TF. I left a runner open but price wicked me out at C.
Starting to wonder if I would make more money taking profit at 1000 pips daily. Market has been very volatile these past days and perhaps that is why I feel this way, because I know for sure that taking profit at 1000 pips would not be a good strategy when Nas truly starts running / seriously trending. I will start taking detailed notes over the next few months and come back to you on my observations.
Catch ya tomorrow! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
