NAS100 Bullish Break & RetestNAS100 Broke above the resistance level and I think it will go up to around 22,000.
NAS100 trade ideas
Nasdaq Scalp- A Short-Term Upside PotentialBased on last week's price , the Nasdaq presents a potential for upward movement, specifically for scalping opportunities. This setup is contingent on the price sustaining acceptance above the identified zone, which could indicate a short-term bullish trend ideal for quick trades.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Scalping and trading carry significant risks and may result in substantial losses. Always exercise caution and trade responsibly.
NAS100 - Nasdaq will stabilize above 21 anytime?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the specified supply zone, you can look for Nasdaq sell positions to target the bottom of the ascending channel. Nasdaq buying positions will be at the bottom of the channel and the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement
The housing sector was in the spotlight last week. The market has regained attention following an unexpected surge in mortgage rates, which have risen by nearly 75 basis points since the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut during its September meeting. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for 30-year mortgages climbed to 6.8% in the week ending November 21, offsetting much of the reductions seen in August and September.
Existing home sales increased by 3.4% in October, breaking a two-month decline. However, it’s important to note that October’s data largely reflects homebuying activity from late September, a period when mortgage rates were trending downward.
Despite this rise, the annualized sales rate of 3.96 million units in October remains sluggish. By comparison, the 2021 average was about 6.1 million units, with current declines largely attributed to higher yields on mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Consumers remain relatively resilient, continuing to spend at a strong pace. October’s retail sales data exceeded expectations with a 0.4% increase, supported by upward revisions to previous figures. This trend indicates that households are entering the holiday season under favorable economic conditions.
In the upcoming week, durable goods orders data is anticipated. This segment, particularly aircraft orders, has experienced significant volatility in recent months. Challenges in the aviation industry are among the main reasons for this instability. While strikes may have impacted production last month, Boeing data reveals that only 63 new aircraft orders were placed in October, roughly matching the prior month’s figure. As a result, conditions in October are expected to have stabilized somewhat.
Overall, demand appears to be leveling out, yet uncertainties regarding corporate investment spending persist. Although borrowing costs and interest rates have been decreasing, the extent and intensity of these declines remain uncertain. Federal Reserve officials have recently acknowledged that, due to strong economic data and sticky inflation, rate cuts in the coming months are likely to proceed gradually and at a slower pace. Additionally, even though U.S. elections have concluded, it is still unclear which policies, particularly tariffs, will be implemented.
This week, several regional indicators—such as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—will be released. Monitoring these data points could provide a clearer picture of the U.S. economy’s health and serve as leading indicators for assessing upcoming economic releases.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated that both headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes are expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.3% and from 2.7% to 2.8%, respectively, in October. If these projections materialize, the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December.
Should the PCE report fail to offer clear guidance on the Fed’s next move, investors will turn their attention to the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting, which will be released on the same day. Additionally, other critical data, such as personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth, will be published on Wednesday.
According to CME data, market participants estimate a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting on December 18, while a 44% chance of holding rates steady is also considered. These probabilities could shift with the release of more data ahead of the meeting. Furthermore, the minutes from the November FOMC meeting are also expected this week.
NAS100 - Updated Market Analysis and Outlook1. Overview of Market Structure and Key Phases
Phase A: Establishing the Range
Selling Climax (SC): Defined at 20,254.0, marking the exhaustion of selling pressure.
Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds from SC to approximately 20,650.5, indicating short-term bullish demand.
Secondary Test (ST): Price revisits near the SC zone to confirm support. ST is evident just above 20,254.0, validating the lower boundary of the range.
Phase B: Consolidation and Cause Building
The market is oscillating in a well-defined range, with:
Support zone: Between 20,254.0 (SC) and 20,322.1.
Resistance zone: Around 20,650.5 and 20,880.0, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels and previous highs.
The ST in Phase B indicates continued accumulation, with price preparing for a breakout.
Phase C (Anticipated Next Week)
LPS (Last Point of Support): Price is expected to retest key levels around 20,322.1 to confirm support before initiating an upward move.
Spring Potential: A brief dip below 20,254.0 may occur to trap sellers, followed by a sharp reversal (a bullish signal).
2. Key Price Levels and Volume Analysis
Support Levels
20,322.1: Major support and the current accumulation boundary.
20,254.0: Critical invalidation level; a break below signals bearish continuation.
20,219.8: Absolute support and long-term invalidation point (Wave 0 breakdown).
Resistance Levels
20,650.5: The 0.382 Fibonacci level and immediate resistance.
20,880.0: Key resistance from the horizontal volume profile, marking the top of the accumulation range.
21,033.5: A breakout level aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
21,245.7: High-probability target and Wave 1 invalidation level.
Volume Profile
Point of Control (POC): Centered near 20,257.1, indicating the area of highest trading activity and a magnet for price.
Low-Volume Gaps: Between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5, suggesting fast movement if these levels are broken.
3. Elliott Wave Analysis
Wave Progression
Wave i: Completed upward move from SC to AR (20,650.5).
Wave ii: A corrective wave that retested support near 20,322.1.
Wave iii: A projected bullish move targeting 20,880.0, with potential to extend toward 21,033.5.
Wave iv: Anticipated short correction before final upward move.
Wave v: A bullish breakout toward 21,245.7 and above.
Invalidation Levels
A failure to hold 20,254.0 invalidates the current wave structure.
A break above 21,245.7 invalidates bearish momentum and signals a shift to a long-term uptrend.
4. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Price confirms support at 20,322.1 or performs a Spring below 20,254.0, leading to:
A rally toward 20,880.0 (resistance).
Further bullish breakout to 21,033.5 and 21,245.7.
Transition into Phase D (Mark-Up) with sustained higher highs and higher lows.
Bearish Scenario
Price breaks below 20,254.0 without a recovery, leading to:
A retest of 20,219.8 (support).
Continuation of the downtrend toward new lows, invalidating the accumulation.
5. Projected Timeline
Monday to Wednesday
Price likely consolidates between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5.
Possible Spring and recovery by midweek.
Thursday to Friday
Anticipated breakout above 20,880.0, confirming bullish momentum.
Potential test of 21,033.5 and beyond.
6. Trading Recommendations
Long Positions
Entry Zones:
Near 20,322.1: On confirmation of support.
Spring setup below 20,254.0: Look for reversal signs.
Targets:
Short-term: 20,650.5.
Medium-term: 20,880.0 and 21,033.5.
Long-term: 21,245.7.
Stop-Loss: Below 20,219.8.
Short Positions
Entry Zones:
Near 20,880.0: On rejection or bearish reversal patterns.
Targets:
Short-term: 20,322.1.
Long-term: 20,254.0.
Stop-Loss: Above 21,033.5.
Critical Zones Ahead for NAS100!
Here is a detailed breakdown and trading plan for the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) based on the provided chart analysis, using the same structured format for clarity.
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Market Breakdown & Trading Plan
1. Market Context and Structure
Phase and Current Movement:
Left Chart (1H):
NAS100 is in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave sequence, moving within a corrective phase.
Wave 5 is expected to bring a final push higher before transitioning into a larger correction.
Price is showing a potential weakened Wave A, followed by a shallow corrective structure, suggesting upward movement toward a key resistance area near 20,771.9–21,045.3.
Right Chart (4H):
The current market is within a distribution phase (Phase C) after breaking above a Volume-Divergence by Wave 5 zone (22,061.9) on a previous attempt.
A strong rejection in the resistance zone is anticipated, followed by a markdown phase targeting lower support levels.
2. Expected Price Movement
Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion)
Target Levels:
First target: 20,771.9 (Wave A peak resistance).
Primary target: 21,045.3 (Fibonacci 0.786 retracement and divergence level).
Stretch target: 21,247.5 (weakened high resistance on the daily chart).
Invalidation: Reversal below 20,500.0 before reaching 20,771.9 invalidates Wave 5 completion.
Correction and Markdown Phase:
Key Reversal Zone:
A strong rejection at 21,045.3–21,247.5 is expected to trigger the markdown phase.
Projected Downside Targets:
Short-term target: 20,647.3 (short-term support at key Fibonacci level).
Medium-term target: 20,408.1 (Wave B triangle boundary and critical support).
Extended downside: 20,309.1 (invalidates bullish structure; Phase C SC line).
3. Key Price Levels to Monitor
Bullish Resistance Zones:
20,771.9: Wave A high; primary resistance where rejection could occur.
21,045.3: 0.786 Fibonacci retracement; key resistance and divergence zone.
21,247.5: Stretch target; weakened high likely to attract liquidity before reversal.
Support Zones:
20,647.3: Fibonacci 0.5 retracement; potential bounce zone during markdown.
20,408.1: Triangle boundary (Wave B support) and critical level for bullish continuation.
20,309.1: SC accumulation level; loss here confirms bearish continuation.
4. Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5
Setup: Look for bullish continuation toward resistance levels if price holds above 20,647.3.
Entry:
Enter long positions on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0 with clear bullish momentum.
Targets:
First target: 20,771.9.
Primary target: 21,045.3.
Stretch target: 21,247.5.
Invalidation: A failure to hold above 20,500.0 signals early markdown, invalidating this scenario.
Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5 Completion
Setup: Look for rejection at the 21,045.3–21,247.5 resistance zone to confirm markdown.
Short Entry Criteria:
Rejection from the resistance zone with lower highs on lower timeframes.
Confirmation via bearish momentum and failure to break above resistance.
Targets:
Short-term target: 20,647.3.
Medium-term target: 20,408.1.
Extended target: 20,309.1.
Stop-Loss: Above 21,247.5 (upper resistance zone) to limit risk.
Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion
Setup: If price fails to break 20,771.9 or reverses early:
Watch for signs of markdown with a breakdown below 20,500.0.
Short Setup:
Enter on confirmation of bearish breakdown below 20,500.0.
Targets:
Short-term target: 20,408.1.
Medium-term target: 20,309.1.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 20,771.9 invalidates bearish markdown bias.
5. Commentary for Your Audience
What to Expect This Week:
NAS100 is likely to push higher to test resistance at 20,771.9–21,045.3, potentially hitting the stretch target at 21,247.5.
A strong reversal is expected from these levels, leading to a markdown phase targeting lower support levels like 20,647.3, 20,408.1, and 20,309.1.
How to Trade:
For Long Traders:
Enter longs on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0, targeting 21,045.3.
Be cautious near resistance; take profits and prepare for a reversal.
For Short Traders:
Look for bearish rejection signals near 21,045.3–21,247.5 and enter shorts.
Target the markdown phase toward 20,408.1 or deeper.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss:
For longs, place stops below 20,500.0.
For shorts, place stops above 21,247.5.
Position Sizing: Adjust leverage for high volatility near key levels.
Discipline: Avoid over-trading and wait for clear confirmation of setups.
NAS100 Technical Analysis and Next Week's Trading PlanTrend Overview:
NAS100 has recently completed Wave 5 of a higher-degree impulsive structure, indicating a potential trend reversal or a corrective move is imminent. This is consistent with Elliott Wave Theory, where after a 5-wave move, the market typically retraces in a corrective 3-wave pattern (ABC).
Key Structural Observations:
Wave 5 Characteristics: Sharp rally towards 21,247.5 suggests exhaustion of bullish momentum as it aligns with a liquidity zone.
Significant Break of Structure (BOS): A bearish BOS at the daily level signals potential trend weakness.
2. Technical Components
A. Elliott Wave Analysis
Current Count:
Wave 5 Completion: The chart shows Wave 5 at 21,247.5.
Expectation: A corrective Wave ABC towards lower levels, targeting key support zones.
Next Move:
Wave A: Likely to move toward the dealing range low (20,465.8).
Wave B: A shallow retracement before further downside.
B. Harmonic Patterns
Bearish Harmonic Pattern Completion:
The harmonic structure completes near 21,247.5, a confluence zone marked by Fibonacci extensions (0.786 of Wave 4 and 1.272 extension of Wave 3).
Expect strong selling pressure near this level.
Harmonic Implications:
Downward targets align with Fibonacci retracements:
38.2% at 20,758 (minor support).
61.8% at 19,777.5 (major support).
C. Order Flow and Liquidity
Liquidity Zones:
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): Stops above 21,247.5 represent trapped buyers in the rally, making this level a magnet for liquidity grabs.
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Stops below 20,465.8 will likely get targeted during the correction.
Point of Control (POC):
POC at 19,493.2: A high-volume area that aligns with the lower end of the dealing range, marking a potential demand zone.
D. Volume Profile
Volume Concentration:
Significant buying volume occurred in the range 20,758–19,888, suggesting this range will act as initial support during a pullback.
Low Volume Areas (LVAs):
Thin volume between 21,000 and 21,247 indicates potential for a rapid decline if selling pressure emerges.
3. Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
21,247.5:
Major swing high and harmonic completion zone.
High-probability reversal area.
Support Levels:
20,758: Minor support (38.2% retracement).
19,777.5: Major support (61.8% retracement).
19,493.2: Final support zone (Point of Control and low of dealing range).
4. Next Week's Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bearish Move (Primary Plan)
Short Setup:
Entry: Enter short positions near 21,247.5, targeting liquidity above this level.
Stop Loss: Set stops above 21,300 (beyond the invalidation of Wave 5).
Profit Targets:
Target 1: 20,465.8 (sell-side liquidity zone).
Target 2: 19,777.5 (major Fibonacci support).
Target 3: 19,493.2 (POC/demand zone).
Rationale:
Exhaustion of Wave 5 aligns with harmonic completion and liquidity grab.
Scenario 2: Bullish Move (Secondary Plan)
Bullish Setup:
Entry: Enter long positions if price retraces to 20,758–19,777.5 and shows bullish rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle).
Stop Loss: Set stops below 19,424.3 (final invalidation of bullish structure).
Profit Targets:
Target 1: 21,138.9 (prior swing high).
Target 2: 21,247.5 (retest of highs).
Rationale:
The correction might end within the identified dealing range, providing a favorable risk-reward for longs.
5. Key Validation and Invalidation Levels
Bearish Bias Invalidated:
Sustained break above 21,300 suggests continued bullish momentum.
Bullish Bias Invalidated:
Break below 19,424.3 invalidates bullish correction, signaling deeper retracement.
6. Risk Management
Position Sizing: Keep risk per trade between 1-2% of capital.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for 3:1 or higher.
Max Loss for the Week: Do not exceed 5% drawdown.
7. Additional Considerations
Economic Calendar: Monitor macroeconomic data that could impact U.S. indices.
Market Sentiment: Watch for news and earnings that may affect NAS100 components.
Live Order Flow: Track changes in real-time to confirm bearish/bullish moves.
NAS100 US Election Rally Buy NAS100 @ 19970 - 19940🏦NAS100🏢 US Election Rally
💎Buy NAS100 @ 19970 - 19940💎
Tuesday 11/05/2024 07 PM
19880 StopLoss —>
19975 BreakEven+
Scalp
TakeProfit 1: 19990
TakeProfit 2: 20010
TakeProfit 3: 20030
Daily
TakeProfit 4: 20050
TakeProfit 5: 20070
Swing
TakeProfit 10: 20170
TakeProfit 20: 20370
TakeProfit 30: 20570
Position
TakeProfit 50: 20970
TakeProfit 100: 21970
TakeProfit 200: 23970
TakeProfit 300: 25970
Richard Eyo ~ The Wizard 🧙♂️
NAS THANKSGIVING WEEKWhat an awesome Sunday Open!
21000 is my next "bank level" target 🎯
If it goes to the downside, my "bank level" target is 20750 🎯
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week
The Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
- S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
1. FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
2. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
- Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
- Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
US 100 Buscando Liquidez Would go down to break the trend
load Gas and generate liquidity again
Accumulate and continue trending
but (but breaks 3 times)
already looking for the low.
Raise to nearest liquidity point
and then goes down to load liquids
again to continue trajectory
A BIG bearish signal has appeared in the NASDAQ🔴 A BIG bearish signal has appeared in the NASDAQ
Few days ago NASDAQ:NDX reached new highs. Most people think the market is still in a strong bull trend, but be cautious because a rare but VERY important signal has appeared.
The market is creating a rising wedge. This kind of pattern usually appears at the END of trends and can be the first signal of a neutral or bearish market.
Reaching new highs was such a bull signal for NASDAQ:NDX and also broke the chart pattern. But when the price come back to the pattern so quickly, this is usually a FALSE break and is what most people call BULL TRAP.
A BULL TRAP is thought to let people buy at a very high price and then be forced to sell later, helping the market to fall further.
✅ When will the BULL TRAP be confirmed?
The bull trap will be confirmed in 2 steps.
1. If the price loses the blue trendline, breaking the pattern to the other side, this is a FIRST ALERT that the market is no longer bullish.
2. Breaking the previous support level (red dotted line) is another confirmation of the trend change.
💰 How to trade this chart pattern?
Be ready to start shorting with tight stops at each confirmation. This could easily move the market to the $18,000 zone, where there is high volume and previous supports.
Translated to money:
1. Use tight stop loss of 2-3%
2. Use a take profits of aprox 10%.
The returns are 4 to 5 times the risk , so enjoy the journey while risking such a small percentage.
🛡️ The risk management strategy
As we have done in so many previous ideas, remember you can split the position in 2.
If 50% of your position seeks for a 2-3% take profits you could easily enter a risk-free trade with the other 50%, where the stop loss is paid by the first order and you can potentially win a 10% or more.
You can learn more in this NASDAQ:DLTR idea:
A Groundbreaking Weekly Close: Is a Big Move Loading?
🔥 The market has spoken, and it’s speaking LOUD. 🔥
This past week’s historic close is nothing short of monumental. For the first time, the market confidently surged above the previous All-Time High (ATH) — breaking through with conviction backed by exceptional volume. But what does this mean for the days ahead? Let’s break it down.
A Look Back: What History Tells Us
📈 Reversal That Changed the Game:
Earlier this year, the market reversed from a minor dip at the ATH with a surge in liquidity. That move ignited a massive 10% rally. And now, we see the same conditions emerging:
Liquidity ✔️
Strong volume ✔️
Breakthrough resistance ✔️
🔎 The Election Week Trap:
Sometimes, the market plays tricks. The US Election Week candle gave us a massive move but was immediately retraced the following week. This teaches us an important lesson: ignore the noise and focus on what truly matters — consistent price action backed by volume.
Why This Weekly Close Stands Out
✅ Exceptional Volume: Unlike election-driven volatility, this close is supported by sustained buying pressure.
✅ Breaking Major Resistance: The market isn’t just flirting with the ATH; it’s clearing it decisively.
✅ Momentum Reset: We’re now undoing the noise from previous eventful candles and focusing on the real trajectory.
What’s Next: Is Another 10% Rally in the Cards?
The stars are aligning for a potential repeat of history. With liquidity unlocked and resistance broken, the market could be gearing up for an even bigger move in the coming days. This past week’s candle could be the foundation for a new bullish wave, signaling a continuation to higher highs.
🧠 Key Takeaways for Traders
💡 Ignore the distraction of single-event candles like the election weeks — focus on volume-backed closes.
💡 Watch for sustained momentum — this close is a signal, not just a moment.
💡 Be prepared for potential follow-through that could mirror the prior 10% move or even exceed it.
⚡ Conclusion: The Market Is Ready to Make a Move ⚡
This isn’t just a weekly close; it’s a statement. The market is poised, primed, and ready to go. Are you ready to ride the wave?
➡️ A major move is loading… and you don’t want to miss it.
🔔 Stay sharp, stay focused, and let the market show its hand!
Critical NASDAQ Breakdown: Major Reversal or Fakeout Ahead?Current Market Structure Overview
Key Swing Highs & Lows:
The price has formed a weak high around the 21,245.7 level, which indicates potential liquidity above this zone.
The recent low at 20,309.1 is protected, suggesting that the market may seek support in this area if downward momentum prevails.
Consolidation Phase:
The price is currently in a balanced range, with accumulation near the 20,700 region and resistance around 21,138.9.
Volume Profile Insights:
High-volume nodes (POC - Point of Control) around 21,138.9 and 20,700 provide significant areas for price reaction. A break above or below these areas will guide future direction.
Bullish Case 📈
Initial Targets:
If price moves above 21,138.9, the weak high at 21,245.7 becomes a primary target for a liquidity grab.
Beyond this, any sustained push could result in a bullish breakout toward 21,428.5.
Support Levels:
Key support lies at 20,700, which aligns with prior accumulation and a possible re-test zone.
Failure to break below this zone will likely keep bulls in control for further upward movement.
Buy-Side Scenarios:
Look for a pullback into 20,700 with strong rejection or bullish momentum signals. A reversal here may trigger buying opportunities targeting 21,138.9 and beyond.
Bearish Case 📉
Break of Support:
A breakdown below 20,700 could trigger further downside into 20,309.1, where key liquidity resides.
Target Zones:
If 20,309.1 fails, the next immediate area of interest is the 50% retracement level at 19,772.5.
The ultimate bearish target for the week is near 19,500, aligning with broader liquidity and demand zones.
Sell-Side Scenarios:
A rejection from the resistance zone at 21,138.9 or a failure to sustain above 21,245.7 could offer short-selling opportunities targeting 20,700 and below.
Key Management Points
Risk Control:
Trade with tight stop-loss placements, especially when entering near high-probability zones like 20,700 or 21,138.9.
Limit risk to 1-2% per trade.
Position Scaling:
Scale into trades gradually, especially when price consolidates around significant levels (e.g., 20,700).
Avoid over-leveraging in choppy or unclear zones.
Patience is Key:
Allow the price to react to key levels like 21,138.9 and 20,700.
Wait for confirmation candles (rejections, breakouts, or significant volume) before committing to any trades.
US100 Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 20,793.1.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 21,500.9 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NAS100 Targets 20929.44 for Further UpsideHello,
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 has responded positively to the 1W/1D PP and is targeting further gains towards 20929.44. If it crosses and sustains above this level, additional upside potential is expected.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
UPDATE NQ Like as i share before but some changes has happend. Broke the sup then fall little more , but top will be in after some weeks . We’r gonna see so much higher than this prices then the bulls will run out of juice.
NAS100 FUTURE EXPECTATIONBullish: Until the All time high if the current SIBI FVG is invalidated I want it to act as support
NAS100 morning analysisBullish count for NAS100.
This count sees price action from 5 August 2024 low as a leading diagonal ((1)), rather than an ending diagonal ((5)).
Wave ((2)) would be a zigzag, with c likely finishing between 19k-20k.
In this scenario, wave v would likely top out near 30k.
Liquidity Engineering and Buying Opportunities on NAS100USDGreetings Traders!
Current Outlook📊:
Despite the bullish trend on NAS100USD, the market has been consolidating throughout the day. We need to analyze the price action carefully to make an informed decision moving forward.
Key Observations👀:
Consolidation Range: Price is holding above the 50% Fibonacci level and near the extreme high of 20,842.4.
Liquidity Engineering: The market is consolidating in a premium price zone, suggesting that liquidity is being engineered. Retail patterns like trendlines and support/resistance may mislead traders into expecting price to respect these levels. In reality, this is often a manipulation tactic by smart money to trigger stops and gather liquidity.
Trading Plan🎯:
Focus: Rather than selling at resistance, look for buying opportunities targeting liquidity pools above the current consolidation zone.
Target: Liquidity areas where smart money is likely to enter, above the identified resistance.
Feel free to share your analysis, discuss insights, or ask questions below in the comments. Let’s learn and grow together!
Best Regards,
The_Architect
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week
The Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
- S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
1. FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
2. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
- Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
- Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
