US30 trade ideas
Price Targets 43,200 Amid Bullish Momentum Above 42,770Technical Analysis
The price will try to touch 43200 while above 42770, so has a bullish momentum from 42770.
Bearish confirmation will be established if the price stabilizes below 42,580.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 42770
Resistance Levels: 43210, 43350, 43650
Support Levels: 42770, 42580, 42390
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Momentum: Stabilized above 42,910
Bearish Momentum: Stabilized below 42,770
Something is not right in Dow JonesSomething is wrong lately with the behavior of the Dow Jones index, which appears in the diagrammatic analysis as particularly weakened without having that upward spark that mainly distinguished it from last July until the end of November. Then, as reflected in the daily price chart, it is as if it ran out of fuel.
In fact, the picture has worsened further since it not only breathlessly crossed the medium-term upward channel "C" downwards, but also by the fact that it broke it downwards and when it went to reassess it by testing the lower line at 43,550 points, it crashed. This indication strengthens the scenario of a new downward movement towards the next important support level of 41,350 points.
Below there, we should revise the primary upward formation, thinking about a possible sharp decline even below the limit of 40,000 points. A strong change in the bearish scenario only with the bullish grab from the 43,550 to 44,000 level by the Bulls.
Among the companies that have recorded significant losses since the beginning of last December, reaching up to -16%, are notable names such as NIKE (NKE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth Group (UNH) whose CEO Brian Thompson was shot and killed on December 4 in downtown Manhattan, Chevron (CVX) and Home Depot (HD). The only companies that have taken the uphill path are Boeing (BA), Amazon (AMZN) and the queen of global capitalizations Apple (AAPL).
US30It should go down when it touches the resistance I marked above, but we should still wait for confirmation and see how it reacts.
US30 gave a bullish intraday opportunity US30 Gave a nice bullish signal from the 42299 support level for a nice intraday opportunity.
Look for price to consolidate between the above mentioned support level and resistance level at 42900.
Look for intraday opportunities between these levels for profits until price decides to return overall bullish again.
US100, I like this if we make FVG to IFVG , i think we go higher until Buyside Liquidity!
we need just close above FVG!
Dow Jones, 12M analysisHi, a very Happy new year to all, posing my another 12M analysis
will post some additional information in the comment section shortly including 12M levels
DOWJONES Bearish iffollowing the rejection from 43400, the next support is 41650 which is a multi monthly candle consolidation area and where the trend from Oct 2023 is currently at, It's a major major area of support, if broken and confirmed below expect extreme downside price action to 36000
Dow outlook for first half of JanuaryCurrently I am inclined towards the market making a Wave C of ABC flat correction. Although its still holidays week so we can see choppy market during this time.
US30 LongThis analysis focuses on the interplay of weekly and intraday confluences, which collectively point towards a potential bullish scenario. A detailed breakdown of the price movements and key levels is provided to support the thesis.
1. Weekly Confluences
Unmet Target: The price has yet to reach its anticipated target of 45,300, indicating unfulfilled market objectives.
Order Collection Observation: A significant retracement suggests an attempt to collect orders within a specific price region.
The first notable level was 43,500, corresponding to a prior body closure. Price broke through this level and moved downward.
The second key region, 42,100, showed a rejection pattern characterized by a three-pin formation.
Pattern Analysis: An "M" pattern is apparent, signaling that the price may retest its neckline at 43,500.
2. Four-Hour Timeframe Insights
Rejection and Momentum: The price rejected the 42,100 weekly level with strong bullish momentum, forming a bullish setup with a target of 42,600.
Order Collection Confirmation : Despite the bullish target not being achieved, the retracement implies another round of order collection, this time within the 42,328 daily level.
Conclusion and Thesis:
The evidence points to a bullish outlook. While the price is gathering momentum and confirming its intentions, I will wait for clear intraday confirmations before entering the market. Patience at this stage will ensure alignment with the larger trend and reduce exposure to potential false moves.
dow jones positional viewdow jones, positonal view is that it will continue to make lower highs and lower low till march,
from there we need to see, this is classical down trend ,with reasons given in chart, hope i have justified analysis,this is similar analysis i have done with bitcoin , please check it.
This Shit Weird But God Got Me Happy New Years . God Bless you all , from this moment forward i will trust my process 💯
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures
The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President?
Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies
My research setup is as follow:
• I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms.
• For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term.
• The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th.
Here is what I found:
• Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%)
• Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%)
• Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term
• George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%)
• Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years
• George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively
• Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term
• Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%)
• Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%)
Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%).
Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset.
Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%!
Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures
The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market.
Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies.
• As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months
• Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year
• 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%)
An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances.
Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract.
CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio.
Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077).
Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077).
Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration:
• A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February
• He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract
• He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May
• Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August
This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts.
There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses.
The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks.
For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5).
The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive.
The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Possibility of correction It is expected that after some fluctuation and correction, the upward trend will continue.
Considering the price behavior in the resistance trend line, possible scenarios have been identified
US30 LIQUIDITYUS30 downtrend line and liquidity grab before continuing the bearish trend .
Good LUck
US30 SELL AT SUPPLY ZONE Here on Us30 price form a supply zone and is likely to fall more so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 42242.9 and stoploss of 42690.2 . Use money management
US30 Trade Scenario's and Analysis (14.01.2024)CORE PPI m/m (FORECAST 0.2%) & PPI m/m (FORECAST 0.4%) 15:30
⦁ Higher then expected signals inflation pressure. (Bearish)
⦁ Lower then expected signals a ease in inflation.(Bullish)
Lower readings reduces inflation pressure on the economy, Which generally means BULLISH, however as i explained about INITIAL MARKET MOVERS can have a volatile effect to find a clear Trend to the Market before Reacting to the Data Readings.
BULLISH SCENARIO.
A Pullback with a Rejection around 42150- 42055 can confirm the Bullish. After a clear retest around those Zones Take entries with a SL at 42000.
EXECUTING TRADES.
A Strong bounce at 42055 and holding strongly above with no break below.
Take BUY entries once the Confirmation Candle enter the Zones between 42125 - 42150 With a SL at 42055.
A Continuous Push above 42250 - 42375 and holding above it can simply just continue Bullish, Automatically turning the resistance to support. Which will then be the POI for another BUY Entry. IF it breaks above those Zones and trades above 42250 with no breaks below.
Take entries once the confirmation Candle enter 42325 - 42350 With a SL at 42250.
BEARISH SCENARIO.
A Strong break through 42055 and trading below with rejections. Can continue Bearish to Either test Support at 41775 or continue to the Weekly support at 41435
EXECUTING TRADES.
Take SELL entries once Rejection Candle enters 42000 - 41975 With a SL at 42055.
A break below 41775 - 41700 will then also be a POI for another Sell entry. I Will monitor price action if it does reach those levels.
FOR NOW FOCUS ON THE REJECTION FOR BUY ENTRIES AS THERE WAS ALREADY A BREAK THROUGH THE TRENDLINE LAST NIGHT. AS LONG AS IT TRADES ABOVE THE TRENDLINE AND HOLDS ABOVE 42055.
ONLY IF PRICE BREAKS BELOW THAT TRENDLINE AGAIN AND HOLDS BELOW 42055 I WILL LOOK AT FOR SELL ENTRIES.
DOW JONES Falling Wedge to break upwards soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Falling Wedge.
Right now it is on the MA50 (4h) after rising on a bullish wave to the pattern's top.
The pattern is very close to be completed and Falling Wedges tend to break to the upside once completed.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next pull back.
Targets:
1. 43500 (under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on higher lows, i.e. a bullish extension since December 18th. Sign that a bullish break out is ahead.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Down Jones Wave Analysis 14 January 2025
- Down Jones reversed from support level 42000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 43000.00
Down Jones index recently reversed up with the daily Piercing Line reversal pattern from the pivotal support level 42000.00, which has been reversing the price from September.
The support level 42000.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
Given the strength of the support level 42000.00 and the improvement in investor sentiment as seen across the global equity markets, Down Jones index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 43000.00.
