XAUUSD trade ideas
BREXIT ALERT: POSSIBLE BREAKOUT IN XAUGBPGold priced in British Pounds has made a tentative break today.
This is not necessarily a Gold trade, but a warning that the British Pound is weak, and a further breakdown is imminent. Gold is caught in a bullish Dollar's crossfire, but Gold relative to GBP is telling is that a substantial currency move may be coming.
The GBPUSD has been grinding support for weeks. Retail investors are bullish.
Today, there is evidence that the British PM has lied. She has refused to publish the full legal advice she received from the deal she signed.
We await the Bank of England's commentary tomorrow (Tuesday), but the picture does not look good for the GBP.
If support breaks imminently, I expect a 1-2 month downturn in GBPUSD, after which the market may find its footing, in anticipation of a clear Brexit outcome next March.
Gold Priced In GBPThis is an interesting chart. Gold priced in Pounds was rejected at the Hypotenuse resistance of a descending triangle, reflecting a bounce in the Pound.
This is a bearish formation and indicates either a) incoming extreme Gold weakness, or b) a period of possible GBP strength.
Since the fundamentals favor the Dollar, I am prepared to bet against its inversely-correlated asset -Gold, and that a falling Gold price in Pounds would reflect a mark down in a Dollar-denominated asset across the board.
Nevertheless, it is interesting that we are approaching a climax in the Brexit saga - news events could spark volatility at this juncture, and the Gold price in GBP is foretelling this.
Bears finding Gold in the woods XAU/GBP pairing
Admittedly the pound hasn't the the strongest, albeit terrible of late since brexit scaremongering was initiated.
Looking at the .618 fib for support or resistance to be found before assuming trend direction however this setup is looking fairly solid. typical market cycle, overbought conditions stretched to inflection point before making a move down. Looking at £840 levels for golds next stop where if support is found a bounce should occur to resistance. Sure gold is in scarce supply and the pound is weak however probability suggests that the pound will go up and gold down. this is the perfect combination for a short entry, more so than with a dollar pairing.
Basil
Gold/GBP - Brexit Traders Dream!Bullish longer term, waiting on confirmation from the charts to follow on from events in the political spectrum.
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Trade on your own judgement. This is just to help you put the picture together and figure out what you might want to do when the deadline approaches.