EUSTX50 trade ideas
MOY0 - Eurostoxx 50 Monthly PictureMy long term view on Eurostoxx 50, (which is basically mirroring my view on many worldwide indices)
As per my previous posts on the Eurostoxx 50 index here:
I was shorting around 3780 looking for an 3 wave ABC retracement - which is near complete now...
There is a MAJOR fibonacci level around 2670 - 2630 comprising of:
- 61.8% retracement of the 2011 low and the 2015 high
- 88.6% retracement of the 2013 low to the 2015 high
- 0-A equal move B-C
- 161.8% fib external retracement of the A-B leg
A potential support zone still could offer some support at 2807, I will only enter here if a shorter term setup presents itself
Seeing there is 4x levels at a previous support zone I would not be surprised to see a rally from this level so will be scouring lower time frames to find a lower risk entry,
There is an unfilled gap at 3284, so will be targeting that level which is also the long term trend line
Indicators are near oversold territory and the RSI is still above 40 so at this stage it is still just a retracement in an uptrend
I don't want to cry wolf, but it just doesn't look healthy...Guys, this broader European equity index is sick!
Weekly:
- Bearish Ichimoku setup!!!
- Price action showed some correction in last few weeks, but momentum is extremely weak! Price could not move back above Kijun and into neutral Kumo zone. Smoothed haDelta still below zero line!
- EWO is bearish!
Daily:
- Year end saved by a neutral Ichimoku picture as Bulls managed to keep price within Kumo in a really choppy fight.
- Price action looks like a possible bearish flag for me! In case 3235 breaks, tgt will be sub 3000!
- Heikin-Ashi momentum is extremely weak: see candle patterns, small bodies and haDelta/SMA3
- EWO is close to zero, but still bearish!
I seriously have a feeling that we'll see a bearish action soon, in early 2016! So New Year will be happy... for the BEARS!
Santa rally? Bull? Deer? - Oh dear...Weekly:
- Below Ichimoku cloud!
- Bearish Heikin Ashi
- EWO decreases again
Daily:
- Almost a bearish Kumo breakout. Best of Santa was to push it back to neutral Ichimoku... for now.
- Price refusing Kijun and horizontal resistance
- Heikin-Ashi hesitation, can turn bearish again -> haDelta lost power
- EWO still shows bearish sentiment
Short term may keep 3200-3350 neutral range, but the big picture is BEARISH!
No more momentum without Draghi talking?Daily:
- Ichimoku still bullish biased, but for continuation price should make a higher high above 3500
- After the spike, Heikin-Ashi started to signal loss of momentum and undecision again. Right now it looks like price fails to gain more moentum to reach at least 3525 trendline support in this wave. haDelta will be a question at zero line!
This is not too healthy. It means mkt can not go higher without ECB "intervention". No confidence without Draghi talking 3-4 times a week? Strange.
4H:
- Ichimoku has some bullish bias, but the averages show there is no real bullish momentum
- Heikin Ashi pattern shows consolidation. haDelta/SMA3 stuck around zero line. Short term there is no trend.
I generally started to think Central Banks started to lose control over markets. It is very simpole. Maybe there is just not too high level of cash positions at real money investors. Less cash means less buying power. Meanwhile probably long leverage is high enough.
I also have a strange feeling that with current monetary policy divergence Central Banks just simply dig the grave for the next recession and markets meltdown: the lower they push EURUSD, the lower commodity prices will go -> lower inflation and lower inflation expectations for futures. Also more trouble for EM countries and problem for US corporate earnings. Of course bonds go even bigger bubble then ever
I really doubt at the end this very big push in USD will cause any good to markets. It would be really funny to see that finally the idiot ECB QE will cause the burst in risky assets bubble :-)
Mixed picture - short term 3290 support testedFirst of all pls note that I added EWO (Elliot Wave Oscillator) to may charts, to be consistent with my Twitter posts, where I use this indicator to confirm trend bias and waves.
Weekly - Neutral, with bearish bias
- The long term Head and Shoulders pattern building is still possible, but Price shot higher into the Kumo during last 3 weeks, so the pattern would be assimetric in case.
- Ichimoku is neutral, Price enterred and trades in a thick Kumo. Warning: Kumo is bearish twisted ahead.
- Heikin Ashi signalled a possible reversal at the end of last week, and turned bearish bias today (the week is still long ahead). Looks like 3290+ support managed to block further seling this morning. 3290 is a very important strategic level.
- Another bearish warning: EWO could not come back above zero line: wave pressure remains bearish.
Daily - bullish bias, but momentum is a question due to shocks
- Ichimoku turns neutral as Price got hit to Kumo support. However thick Kumo and Kijun together should provide enough support for bulls. EQO also kept above zero, no real danger for now.
- Heikin Ashi signal is bearish, but haDelta spikes up again after hitting extreme low earlier. It looks like short term panic is over.
- Next question is can we see a higher high, can we see a test of bearish trendline and continuation above 3500 later?
After short term 3290 support got tested and proved to hold, I think mkt can go a bit higher again from here. But in the long run I think risks of a bear market are still not negligable!
Ain't bullish... turns down from Kumo. 3100-3150 retest?Eurostoxx50 had a decent counter trend / bear mkt rally (short squeeze?), but picture here is a lot different than in SP500. Actually this index is still very weak!
Please see my SPX and my previous long term STOXX50 posts!
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral, with a thick Kumo ahead of price, and with Chikou Span at past candles. Market has had a high level of volatility recently, this will not change in short term.
- Heikin Ashi possible top signal yesterday, confirmed by bearish signal today. Price started to decline again after testing Kumo (bearish support).
- Lower supp/res area is 3100-3150, this will likely be retested.
- Will it make a short term inverse Head and Shoulders patter there later and spike again, or will it break down and target 3000, this is uncertain and would be very subjective to forcast now!
4H:
- Bullish technical picture and momentum is deteriorating. Ichimoku losing bullish bias.
- Heikin Ashi is increasing bearish, with a lower low today
- Possible supp/res levels 3190 / 3150 / 3122
Story of a giant grizzly's Head and ShouldersIt takes extremely long time to develope such a pattern on a weekly chart. But when it is confirmed, it will have a very serious consequence.
Weekly:
- Bearish Ichimoku setup, but not strategic bearish until clearing previous low of 3000.
In fact I think this market is building a huge bearish Head and Shoulders pattern. I think we still have 3-4 months to finish the right shoulder, and during this long time period market has chance to move in this wide range of 3000-3350! After all, there is ECB money printing, so 3000 will likely be bought from time to time.
However the really good risk reward is to sell spikes on any visible weekly exhaustion, so short this index in 3250-3350 range from time to time.
- Heikin Ashi signal is counter bullish. You have to watch price action on lower time frames too whenever haDelta's SMA3 reches zero line again.
Daily:
- Due to short squeeze price retested Kumo and changed Ichimoku setup to more neutral from extreme bearish. Thick Kumo ahead.
- Heikin Ashi has a clear warning signal for bullish exhaustion! Look at candle position and haDelta. Since this possible exhaustion is happening ard Kumo resistance, it can easily turn into a pull back to retest 3100-3150 again.
- Market has to be treated as Bearish until trades below 3330!
Get out of all longs, open some counter shorts
Consolidation followed by bearish continuationWeekly:
- Ichimoku turns firm bearish! Price continues to drop below the Kumo. Chikou Span may give confirmation signal soon by crossing below past Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi is increasingly bearish. After minor consolidation for 2 weeks, we have a firm bearish signal: red candle without upper wick + haDelta/SMA3 bearish cross below zero line.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is firm bearish. Price turned down from Kijun Sen.
- After some longer consolidation and a lot of noise, Heikin Ashi turns firm bearish again with increasing momentum.
European equities trade neutral before NFPShort term bullish idea worked yesterday, but later price action faded after briefly touching 3290 resistance. By now it is back to neutral.
- 4H Ichimoku setup is absolutely neutral: Price, Tenkan and Kijun all within Kumo, Chikou hit past candles. Price trades around equilibrium (Kijun Sen) (0)
- There is some possible short term bullish trend bias, and a medium bullish Tenkan/Kijun (+)
- Heikin Ashi is bearish biased, but for further bearish acceleration candles should continue printing new lows. (-)
- Bullish above 3245 and especially above 3290. Bearish below 3185.
I have no clue how it will move, but looking at other risk measuring instruments and drivers (EURUSD, Gold, Oil, EM ccys), I don't see the matrix as too bearish short term. Maybe 55-45 chance that equities will catch up and trade higher by the end of the day, but this is not enough to bet, and we are not gamblers. Stay tuned, place your stop buy and/or stop sell orders, and trade when you see a reliable signal.
Mixed signals, consolidation. More up if ECB dovish?Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish, with key suppport ard 3330-3340. However this index is quite volatile, can move very agressively, it easily penetrates and crosses averages.
- Heikin Ashi seemed bearish agaon for last two days, but again, there was no lower low yesterday. Bearish momentum disappeared, candle turned bullish again, while haDelta/SMA3 tries to cross back up above zero line again. (short term more bullish biased)
- In fact we see a choppy consolidation after the huge panic selloff. In case ECB goes dovish today, Price may retest to 3335... and who knows... maybe even higher, but it's way too early to discuss this possibility.
4H:
- Price moved back into the Kumo, Chikou back above past candles. Tenkan Kijun and Senkou lines stay all together, so Ichimoku picture has become absolutely neutral. Would turn to bullish again above 3335 (100 WMA), bearish below 3150.
- Heikin Ashi is short term bullish, but on this lower time frame it can change very quickly.
Let's see what Mr. Draghi delivers to these nervous markets!
China is closed too for two days, so possibly we can see some more "melt-up" in equities in general.
European equity bull may take a pauseWeekly:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup, Price back above Kijun Sen, but could not yet make a higher high this week, and candle body close is ard the level of the last green candle's close. So the momentum has lost a little bit by the end of the week.
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, but for continuation haDelta shd make a decisive cross above SMA3 next week.
Daily:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup, but price faces some short term resistance ard 3700
- Heikin Ashi signals a drop in bullish momentum. Today closing will be very important, as then we'll have more clue from the candle position and haDelta if we'll see some consolidation.
Looking at the daily setup now, I think there is increasing chance we'll see a pull back first which could push price back to 3600 (or maybe even to 3500 later but that is hard to see in advance), then we'll see how market reacts at supports.
For bullish continuation Price should close above 3695.
p.s.: I opened 0,5 counter short today with initial stop above 3700.
EUSTX50 - In case Greek problem is solved...... then the European recovery can go further on. Which also means that with ECB still printing money, while there is absolutely no deflationary threath (there has never been really IMHO!) European stocks will shoot higher again and will perform a lot better relative to US stocks.
It is clear that the risk picture is already changing.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish. Price is moving higher from Kijun Sen support. A break back above Tenkan Sen would mean confirmation of the new bullish wave. Lower supports are still at 3400 and 3310.
- We possibly have a Heikin Ashi bullish reversal signal developing.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish. The question is what Price will do ard Kijun Sen. Anyway, if it breaks above 3600, that will be a point of reversal to bullish again. If it happens, the Index becomes a buy on dips.
- Heikin Ashi already signalled a possible swing up during last few trading days, as after the long wicked doji candle we had a small green one, while haDelta crossed above SMA3. Today candle is impressive bullish too: pricing a satisfying solution for Greece?
I am not involved in European equities right now. Still too volatile for me, and I have enough other playgrounds now where I feel more comfortable.
EUSTOXX50 - One day fear? Up or down? It is neutral and volatileWeekly:
- Not surprising, Ichimoku setup is still bullish.
- Heikin Ashi weekly signal is bullish again, haDelta/SMA3 going higher, try to get above zero line.
Daily:
- Neutral Ichimoku setup, with very volatile trading in the Kumo. Both Kijun and below that Tenkan acted as good support yesterday and today. Lowest level was at Tenkan Sen, Price closed above Kijun Sen. Price is ard equilibrium: trades ard the flat future Senkou B line (orange)
- Heikin Ashi signals undecision on a volatile market: today candle is a doji with very long wicks. Given the fact that Price is still above Kijun Sen and that haDelta/SMA3 may do a bullish cross and get above zero line again, there is some minor bullish bias within the neutral zone of the Kumo. It could become really bullish if breaks above 3700-3725.
I don't have any strong view on European equities now. Chances of direction are more or less equal, and I try to be a trend follower, not a trend predictor. I can not see from recent setup which way it finally will break out.
p.s.: On US equities I am rather bearish biased, but I have to admit, technical setup is still not bearish there either. I hold small shorts in SP500 and NAS100.
Eurostoxx 50 Daily Bullish Cypher/ Gartley PatternEurostoxx 50 Daily Bullish Cypher/ Gartley Pattern
This is a little late, but there is a bullish gartley/ bat pattern on the Eurostoxx50
While I am actually short and longer term bearish based on the monthly chart, there could be a short term opportunity to trade it back up to around 3715 without too much trouble
I will not be taking this trade as it is too late but it is important to remain neutral to see both sides
Like I said, I am actually short on the monthly but see a bullish pattern on the daily - good old multi timeframe analysis!! =)
EUSTOXX50 - Next leg down to 3600 is possible- After three days drop Price started to consolidate a bit around Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. It even tried to break back above these averages, but both yesterday and so far today the Bulls fail to get back in control. -> This means Ichimoku setup is slowly turning neutral: with next leg down we could have a weak Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross, Chikou Span also hits Price candles.
- Heikin Ashi candles show undecision after the first drop. So far today the candle has lower low and small red body compared to the candle yesterday. Very important to watch haDelta/SMA3, as if that can not climb back above zero line, but makes a bearish cross again below key level, that will bring further profit taking and sellers will push the index down towards 3600 support. HA oscillator is still red.
- All in all a major bearish reversal is not very likely (unless Greece defaults), as the Kumo is thick below price and thus gives a strong bullish support. Rather the volatility should increase, and we will see agressive swings back and forth.
Hold your shorts, and trail your protective stops to break even!
Euro Stoxx 50 Monthly Bearish Gartley/ Wave 5 fib clusterEuro Stoxx 50 Monthly Bearish Gartley/ Wave 5 fib cluster
Monthly bar not closed yet, but if it closes where it is I will be selling any break below the April monthly range or hunting for shorter term shorts
EUSTOXX50 - Adjusted wedge breaks?Weekly:
- Strong bullish trend, but looks a bit overbought, Price far above equilibrium level
- Weekly Tenkan Sen is first support ard 3600
Daiy:
- Ichimoku setup to remain bullish, but the repositionned wedge trend line may be broken today.
- heikin Ashi signal: doji, doji, red. haDelta/SMA3 below zero line now, Oscillator turns red.
Pull back to 3700 or maybe even to 3600+ is possible.
EUSTOXX50 - Wedge retested with no higher highDaily:
- the broken wedge was retested yesterday and today, but so far price could not make a higher high
- Heikin Ashi candles signal some undecision (not yet bearish), haDelta may cross below SMA3. It can be a sign for diminishing bullish power.
4H:
- Price popped up again after retesting the Kumo.
- DMI and Heikin Ashi signal turns short term bearish again, after Price could not make a higher high
- Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bullish
- Watch 3675 as first support (Kijun and 100 WMA)! If Price breaks it, the next bearish Kumo attack can be succesful.
Top consolidation has clearly started. It is too early to decide if it will end in a deeper correction, or keeps moving more sideaway in 3630-3740 range. Maybe we should just trade the range, trying to sell these tops, and in case there is no follow through, close it with few % profit.
STOXX50 - Breaks the wedge, start to hedge!Daily:
- Rising wedge is broken
- Heikin Ashi setup turns bearish: yesterday long wicked doji, followed by massive red candle today. haDelta/SMA3 further down below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish
- MACD sell signal is firm now
- First daily support is at 3600 Kijun Sen (almost reached today). A break below needed to see more correction to next support level which is ard 3500. The real strong bullish support is 3400.
4H:
- Price reached first important support at Kumo bottom and horizontal line. I think this should hold short term as Price is a bit oversold. But any spike will be a sell opportunity, as the bullish Ichimoku setup is falling apart: Chikou below Price (still above past Kumo), weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. 3650-3700 will act as resistance o upside from now.
- DMI switches to bearish, but ADX has not yet started to increase. It will when we see a bearish Kumo break below 3620.
- Heikin Ashisetup is absolutely bearish, btu ha/delta reached an extreme low: this means short term mkt is a bit oversold. Try to wait for a pull back first and sell higher. Sell more on the next dip when Price breaks the Kumo.
I don't think we'll see a trend reversal. (not until Price stays above 3400), but we'll have a healthy correction to 3500 +/-.There we will have to look for buy signals again and close counter shorts, and maybe enter longs again. But for now the strategy is close longs on spikes and enter counter short position.
EUSTOXX50 - To the roof. Wedge is still in play.Weekly:
- price reaching some long term resistance
- Market has become overbought, as priceis too far from long term equilibrium levels (Kijun and Kumo)
- Ichimoku setup is very bullish, but sooner or later a pull back will have to happen.
- Weekly supports are: 3400 and 3291 (very strong support)
Daily:
- Still very bullish Ichimoku setup
- The wedge is still intact. Correction can come only if Price breaks the rising wedge and closes below Tenkan Sen.
- After two days of small hesitation (two small body red candles) Price tries to break higher again. Green candle with haDelta/SMA3 cross above zero line.
- It may go further up, maybe a blow off top will happen around 3750-3800.
The move is obviously vertical, but don't try to fade it and do not try to hunt for the top until the wedge is not broken. Price tested it two times already, but couldn't break below. Just watch and be patient, the time for the swing short will come.
