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POLISH ZLOTY / EURO

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PLNEUR trade ideas

EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Slight upside potential aheadThe Euro has been trading in an ascending channel against the Polish Zloty since late December, 2017. The most recent test of this senior pattern occurred mid-June when the pair reversed from the 4.26 area. It has since been guided by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs in a junior channel up. Technical indicators on longer-term time-frames demonstrate that there is still some upside potential for a bullish surge. Thus, it is expected that the Euro continues to trade in line with the junior and senior patterns, thus going for a test of the upper wedge line near 4.3750/4.3760 this week. The 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, the monthly R1 and the weekly R2 are likewise located in this territory. At this point, this upward movement might have exhausted itself, thus letting bears to take over the market. This scenario would be confirmed by a downside breakout of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Euro bound to breach wedgeThe appreciation of EUR/PLN has been guided by a medium-term rising wedge since early April. This has allowed the pair to strengthen by 4.50% up to its one-year high of 4.34 reached on May 30. It seems that this pattern might soon reach its maturity, thus pointing to a soon breakout. From technical point of view, the bottom boundary of this wedge should surrender. This assumption is likewise supported by technical indicators on the 1D time-frame which are located at the oversold territory. Thus, a medium-term depreciation is the more likely scenario. In the meantime, the Euro might be reluctant to breach the bottom wedge line near 4.31 on the first occasion, as this level is supported by the 200-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs. In case upside momentum prevails in the short term, the aforementioned yearly high should remain intact.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Bearish signals prevailThe EUR/PLN exchange rate has shown no significant changes to its movement during the past two weeks, as it has remained trading in the 4.24/29 trading range. This movement sideways has occurred near the upper boundaries of both long– and medium-term channels. This situation demonstrates that the pair could be ready to abandon its four-week surge and turn to the downside. This scenario is likewise confirmed by converging technical indicators on the 4H and 1D time-frames. There is still some slight upside potential that could guide the Euro to the monthly R2 and the weekly R1 at 4.30. This should be followed by a test of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs near 4.2615. A successful breakout of this area should send the pair even lower down to the monthly PP and the weekly S2 at 4.21.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Bearish sentiment allaysThe Euro has depreciated substantially against the Polish Zloty since March 21. The pair reversed from the senior channel located near 4.24 during the given session and began trading in a new channel down. The pair’s trading range within this pattern has diminished, as it has failed to reach its bottom boundary for the past two weeks. This suggests that the Euro might be ready for a bullish breakout. In case this scenario occurs, the pair should target the upper boundary of the senior channel circa 4.22. There are some notable resistance levels along the way that could hinder the pair for some time, including, the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP at 4.1965 and 4.21, respectively. On the other hand, the rate might still edge slightly lower down to a medium-term channel circa 4.17. A fall below the 4.1650 is not expected.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Bearish wave in sightThe common European currency has shown solid growth against the Polish Zloty since February 20. Bulls have managed to push the rate 2.63% higher during this time, thus reaching a four-month peak of 4.2420 earlier today. The pair’s current movement has been confined in an ascending channel. The Euro, however, has failed to maintain the steep positioning and has therefore diminished its trading range. Technical indicators on the four-hour time-frame are located in the overbought region, thus pointing to the beginning of a new medium-term decline. The same message is conveyed by shorter-term indicators, especially when the nearest resistance is set by the strong weekly and monthly R2s circa 4.2425. The expected fall might not be very steep during the following sessions, as the southern barrier is protected by several support levels. Additional bearish momentum should be provided when the Euro breaches the weekly PP, the monthly R1 and the 200-hour SMA at 4.21.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
2018 POLAND ECONOMIC GROWTH OFF TO STRONG START, EU GROWTH HELPSPLN has come under pressure after the National Bank of Poland reiterated its dovish stance at its policy meeting yesterday. Governor Glapinski suggested that the NBP may raise rates at the end of 2019 at the earliest, but current projections show no reason to raise rates before the end of 2020. This comes after the NBP revised its inflation forecasts marginally lower in 2018/19 while upgrading its GDP forecasts. Further dovish rhetoric suggesting rates on hold for a prolonged period of time, causing the market to price out hikes, could weigh on PLN from an interest rate differential perspective The NBP is likely to raise rates in 2019, AFTER the ECB. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop in Poland remains very strong, with solid growth and an improving external balance. Moreover, an improving Euro area backdrop should also benefit the zloty. We think such strong growth dynamics will ultimately support gradual PLN gains over the medium term. In addition, valuation looks attractive and the authorities continue to appear comfortable with zloty appreciation. In terms of risks, we acknowledge that we may see the zloty remain under pressure in the near term as rate expectations adjust. Credit to Morgan Stanley Research & Bloomberg wbj.pl
Short
by itzbert
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Surge in medium term expectedFollowing a rebound from a 2,5-year low of 4.1317 late in January, the EUR/PLN exchange began moving higher in an ascending channel. This junior pattern proved to be strong enough to allow for a breakout of the dominant five-month channel last week (dashed lines). Technical indicators suggest that some upside potential still exists in the market. It could be capped near 4.2050 where the upper boundary of a medium-term channel, the monthly and weekly R1s and the 38.20% Fibo retracement are located. Given this significant resistance area, it is likely that the Euro corrects southwards and falls down to the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 4.19. If looking at the pair’s movement during the two following weeks, the medium-term channel could surrender under the bullish pressure, thus paving the way for a surge in the medium term.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690