VOW trade ideas
Is Volkswagen a buy?I see a lot of people on social media claiming that Volkswagen is now a good buy because the stock is undervalued, because the government will intervene, because it's not all that bad, and so on.
However, if you take a look at the weekly chart with the most basic tools, you will notice that the share is currently not sending any signs that indicate an imminent upward trend in the context of a Stage 2. The price is below a falling 30-week SMA and below a falling AVWAP from the ATH. Even though the price has risen “significantly” in the last two weeks, this should not be a reason for FOMO. Once a trend has been established, it is more likely to continue than to reverse. And as long as the chart does not improve significantly, it is more likely to be a short-term countermovement within a long-term downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. Guilty until proven innocent. For an experienced swing trader, it may be possible to take advantage of these short-term countermovements to generate profits. However, this is too risky for inexperienced traders. Sure, it could happen that the stock will continue its short term move up and establish a Stage 2 with a long term upward trend - but it is not likely. Trade the chart in front of you and listen to the market.
As Peter Lynch liked to say: "If they don't scare you out, they will wear you out."
Bottom fishing is not advisable. Let institutions do the dirty work and do not let FOMO make you trade risky setups. Wait for a clear change of the trend and sentiment.
Volkswagen - soon ready for the next bullish period (?)Today I will look at Volkswagen (VOW3).
VW has had a very tough period especially with the transition to building electric cars and uncertainty especially with european legislation and market regulations. (not a complete fundamental analysis, please search for more fundamentals elsewhere!)
My Elliott wave perspective tells me that we are closing in on a potential pivot point from where the share price could easily double and this could provide us with an excellent trading opportunity for the next years.
Volkswagen and the Crisis of the Automotive Industry in EuropeVolkswagen's recent action, with proposals to close up to three factories in Germany and the possible reduction of global wages by 10%, highlights a critical situation in the European automotive industry. Although expected, this measure reflects the challenge the sector is facing due to the passivity and lack of strategic response from European institutions. Volkswagen is taking drastic measures to ensure its profitability and competitiveness in the face of a global crisis in the sector. However, these cuts also expose a larger problem: the lack of supportive policies on the part of the European Union to maintain the competitiveness of its own companies in a challenging global market.
Europe's Inaction at a Key Competitiveness Moment
European passivity is perceived not only as a lack of response to the automotive sector, but as a reflection of an industrial policy that has lagged behind in a context of accelerating energy change. China, for example, has implemented extensive support programs for its automotive industry, focusing on innovations in electric vehicles and the production of strategic metals, such as rare earths. The energy transition in Europe, on the other hand, has included environmental constraints and penalties that could further harm local companies.
Starting January 1, 2025, Europe will impose fines on automakers that fail to meet certain emissions limits, a move that, without an adequate back-up plan, could exacerbate the financial problems of companies such as Volkswagen, Mercedes and Stellantis.
While environmental sustainability is paramount, these restrictions could be stifling the industry's ability to respond at a critical time.
Urgency of a Rescue and Competitiveness Plan
The automotive sector has historically been an economic pillar in Europe, generating employment and contributing significantly to the GDP of several countries in the region. However, without a change in approach that allows for greater competitiveness in a global environment, the industry could suffer irreparable losses. Instead of tariffs or restrictive measures against international competitors, a comprehensive plan is needed to boost the competitiveness of European companies at home and abroad.
A first step in this direction could be the removal or relaxation of certain restrictions, such as a ban on internal combustion engines from 2035, allowing a more gradual transition to more sustainable alternatives. It is also crucial to facilitate the exploitation of resources such as rare earths to ensure an adequate supply of key materials in the electric vehicle production chain.
Responsibility and Immediate Action by European Leaders
The outcry from Volkswagen and other key players in the sector represents an urgent wake-up call to the European institutions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with other leaders, must take immediate action to prevent further deterioration of the automotive industry. It is time to convene an emergency summit, where key players in the sector can discuss and design an effective plan to rescue and support the industry. This plan should include not only investments, but also a clear support policy to maintain jobs and promote innovation.
The current scenario of uncertainty and tension in the negotiations between Volkswagen and the unions represents only the tip of the iceberg. If Europe fails to act, this crisis could spread to other economic sectors, generating a chain of negative effects that would seriously affect the European economy as a whole.
Technical aspect
Volkswagen (Ticker AT: VOW3.GE) has currently been unwinding a cycle closure initiated in 2020. Since March 2021 the company has been consistently losing value, down approximately -65.5%. Since August 6 the company has been moving in a range between €99.26 and its all-time low of €87.50. It is currently located in an area testing the lows and if it manages to sustain the value could move again to the 100 euros area to test possible perforations of the bearish channel. Given the evolution of the automotive company's drift, it will not be unusual to see a continuation of the channel towards lower prices if it pierces the current support. The downward pressure is relatively strong, even though the company is trying to remain in a price zone close to 90 euros per share. The checkpoint is fragmented because in August this year its strong zone was around 120 euros per share and the current POC is above 114 euros. The RSI is slightly oversold at 46.15%. We will have to see the factors related to the company to see if the RSI advances with more downward pressure or on the contrary corrects.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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VW BULLISH SENTIMENTVolkswagen plans to focus solely on profitability amid cutthroat competition from the Chinese automakers. Volkswagen said it would not participate in the discount battle like its Chinese competitors. Instead of expanding its market share and sales volume, the German carmaker plans to leverage its strong market position to build a sustainable business.
The company's deliveries for April 2023 jumped 39% year-on-year to 720,200 cars.
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Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotiVolkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotive industry is undergoing a transition to electric vehicles. These companies hold strong positions, but they need to successfully navigate this transformation against competitors like Tesla and Polestar (lol).
Rewards
Trading at 79.2% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 6.14% per year
Earnings grew by 24.2% over the past year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Risk Analysis
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Dividend of 9.77% is not well covered by free cash flows
VW - The rise and fall of a giantFUNDEMENTALS
Volkwagen - the people's car, once upon a time this was the world's most valuable automobile company. So what happened to this car manufacturing giant? Unfortunately, they had installed software to cheat emissions test, causing a 40% drop in the stock price. That was back in 2015 and once again we are approaching are the same price level once again.
What does the future hold? Can they survive the competitive landscape of this industry, with the rise of the Chinese EVs? Can the tariffs have a meaningful impact and save this business from collapse?
TECHNICALS
Looking at the price chart, this is a great example of Elliot Wave theory. I think we are only getting started and there's lower to come. I have been short since 150 Euros and will compound my short with any rips that may occur. Restructuring plans and cost saving might bring a relief rally, which is where i'll be looking to add more to my position.
DYOR, not financial advice.
Volkswagen AGThe price is currently around 101.50 EUR.
The chart suggests two potential scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: A red arrow suggests a possible further decline to the long-term support level around 63.37 EUR before potentially rebounding.
Bullish Scenario: A blue arrow suggests a strong upward move that could occur after a potential bottom or a breakout. This move could potentially target levels above 500 EUR, which might be a longer-term projection if the price breaks out of the downward sloping black trendline.
Volkswagen: BUYThe Doji on the Monthly chart shows that the downtrend is exhausted at historic Change of Polarity support. Stochastics are oversold. Price hit the Monthly Bollinger lower band and Yearly Pivots Fibonacci S1 support. Target is next major Fibonacci level above which coincides with Daily chart Falling Window resistance.
Long: 105.70
Target: 125.00
SL: 100.7
Max 10% of trading capital.
Volkswagen (VOW3): Potential Climb to €150Volkswagen AG is currently a highly interesting stock for us, especially given that it is a massive enterprise and the European market has seen significant sell-offs, in contrast to most American automakers which remain relatively high. However, it's important to note that automakers are typically quite volatile. If not for the high dividend yield, which currently stands at 15%—exceptionally high for a company of this size—it might not even be worth considering. Looking at the daily chart, we've observed a decline from 252€ to a low of 97.83€, marking the nadir of the overarching Wave II.
We placed our very first entry at the start of this cycle at 101€, which is now at 121€. We have yet to break out from the major trend channel. A new, smaller trend channel has formed, suggesting that an upward breakout could potentially lead us out of both channels, providing a short-term boost. This could bring us to the level of Wave (X), around 150€, concluding the Wave (1).
We successfully entered a new position on the 2-hour chart for Volkswagen, as we placed a limit order at the 50% retracement level, which was reached yesterday. This entry should give us a significant boost, aiming to challenge the trend channel line again and potentially reaching new local highs around 130€. There's also a dividend distribution coming up next month for Volkswagen, which might influence market behavior as investors could decide to take profits afterwards.
We are not trying to predict short-term movements; instead, we aim to position ourselves for the long term and hold our investments for extended periods. We have strategically placed our stop-loss below Wave ((ii)) to only get stopped out if the scenario is invalidated. However, we see theoretically huge potential upwards, with 150€ being just an initial target.
Volkswagen in Focus: Analysis and Initial SuccessesVolkswagen's chart has been performing well, aligning nicely with our expectations, though it might not apply universally for all Elliott Wave Analysts. We've made three entries into Volkswagen, closing one while still holding two. Our first buying decision was timed during significant pressure on the German stock market, particularly impacting the automotive sector. Since then, the movement has been favorable, and broadly speaking, we believe we entered near what appears to be a foundational low. Whether this proves to be the absolute bottom or if a new bottom emerges in the years ahead remains to be seen. However, we can confidently state we entered at a local low, with our positions showing a 12% increase since the last entry and a 23% increase from the first open entry.
We're keenly interested in how Volkswagen's dividend yield will play out and what the future holds, which looks promising at this stage. We'll continue to closely monitor and analyze this stock, keeping our positions open without any current reason to close. Having already secured some profits and adjusted our stop-loss to our entry price, we're well-positioned. Should any changes be made, we'll certainly keep you informed.
Volkswagen: Limit Order Set for Surge to €200!At Volkswagen, we're now placing a limit order for Wave (ii), as we've once again failed to master and reclaim the trend channel. Consequently, we've fallen below it again. However, we believe we're dealing with Wave (ii) and anticipate a significant push upwards after a bit more selling pressure. This situation has a somewhat sour aspect, as it's possible we're facing an unfinished Wave ((ii)). In such a scenario, we should form a double bottom, given that the currently assumed Wave (i) is precisely at 100% of the overarching Wave ((ii)). Therefore, we want to set an relatively larger stop-loss to ensure safety and avoid being stopped out. Looking upwards, we have high expectations for Volkswagen and therefore have no concerns about sacrificing a few percentage points downward, as the upward potential is significant, with a minimum level of euros up to 200€. Hence, we see no issue in slightly increasing the stop-loss.
Changes in the EU's Green Deal could spur growth for VolkswagenVolkswagen’s shares have been on a downward trajectory for about three years now, dropping by more than 50%. However, after finding a bottom (presumably) in October 2023, the company’s stock has been ticking higher and forming an upward-sloping channel. While it is yet to be seen whether these shares have really bottomed out, certain developments might boost the company’s outlook going forward. Due to mounting protests from farmers and others, discussions about the European Union’s Green Deal and its feasibility have emerged recently. It is becoming increasingly apparent that ambitious plans might not be achievable within the initial deadline set in the deal. Furthermore, the question of the cost of achieving these goals has become a major subject of talks among members of the European Parliament. So far, European lawmakers have scrapped some of the initial rules, mainly affecting the agricultural sector. Nevertheless, it is possible that phasing out of combustion engine cars and reducing emissions will undergo a similar reassessment that could positively affect European carmakers, including Volkswagen, which is somewhat behind in electrifying its fleet compared to its competitors.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of Volkswagen stock. Currently, the price is trading near the lower bound of the upward-sloping channel that acts as a support. If this support holds, it will be positive for the stock in the short term.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Volkswagen: Assessing Momentum and Potential Opportunities
Title:
Volkswagen: Assessing Momentum and Potential Opportunities
Analysis:
Hello Traders,
Volkswagen presents an intriguing opportunity as we assess its current momentum and potential for further gains.
XETR:VOW3
Volume and Momentum Analysis:
Volume trends suggest increasing market activity and growing confidence in Volkswagen 's price movement. This surge in volume aligns well with the ongoing upward momentum, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Technical Analysis:
The price action favours upward movement, with Volkswagen exhibiting strength in its bullish trend. Technical indicators support the notion of further gains, providing a positive outlook for traders.
Conclusion:
Given the supportive volume and technical signals, traders may find opportunities to capitalize on the upward momentum in Volkswagen . However, it's essential to remain vigilant and implement risk management strategies to navigate potential market fluctuations.
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Happy trading!
VOLKWAGEN moving up towards $126 in new impulse up.The stock displayed an impulsive rise between Oct-Dec 2023 and a subsequent correction of the same through the months of dec-jan.
The correction was almost an 61.8% retracement of the impulse and the price shot up quite strongly as soon as the corrective wave was over.
Now the stock is already in wave 3 structure and with sub-divisions or without them $126 is the projected target zone for the stock.
VOW3 about to hit resistance line started in 2009...As we can see in the graph, VOW3 is about to hit a resistance line which started on March 9th, 2009. This line was solidified on March 18th, 2020. Morningstar currently classifies Volkswagen as five stars, with almost 70% discount to fair value. The extremely large dividend yield is ice on the cake...
