KSE100 | Double Top OR Break Out?The KSE 100 Index concluded its most recent trading session at 66,570, registering a gain of 663.7 points (1.01%). Presently, the index has breached its trend line and is encountering resistance from its new all-time high at 67,093. This level has the potential to form a double top pattern, indicating a possible rejection. However, a break above this level could signify the onset of a new bullish market cycle.
KSE100 trade ideas
KSE 100 Index analysisPakistan is currently in discussions regarding the final tranche of the IMF loan and the potential acquisition of a new loan through the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). As the country wraps up the IMF review process, recent developments in inflation, reaching 23.06% year-on-year as of February 2024, have intensified discussions around key monetary policy decisions and the terms of the IMF deal.
Given the prevailing inflationary pressures, it's unlikely that the central bank will opt for a rate cut to address inflation until it's under control. The interest rate serves as a pivotal tool in managing the country's inflation dynamics. Looking ahead, expectations are set for a reduction in the CPI inflation rate to 20% by March 2024. This anticipated moderation could pave the way for a potential decrease in the monetary policy rate during the subsequent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting slated for April 29, 2024.
Should inflation align with projections and the monetary policy rate sees a reduction in the upcoming meeting, it could indicate a positive sentiment in the Pakistan Stock Exchange market, charting a positive trajectory forward. ๐๐
KSE100 Index Set To RetraceThe KSE100 Index is currently exhibiting a trend rejection, evident from its recent performance, particularly in the last two trading sessions characterized by lackluster volume and a decline in the index value. Consequently, a further downward movement is anticipated. In light of this observation, it is advisable to capitalize on profits by liquidating positions in stocks acquired during dips. Additionally, investors may contemplate acquiring shares at lower prices to optimize their average cost in the event of a subsequent rebound. Notably, the support level for the index is situated around 64,800, and its ability to maintain this level is crucial for initiating a potential recovery. Recommended stocks which can be accumulate on dip are DGKC, MLCF, PRL, ATRL, HCAR, EFERT, KEL, PPL, OGDC, PSO, FFC, SYS, FCCL, POL, MTL & HUBC.
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KSE100The KSE 100 Index closed its latest trading session at 63,704, marking a notable gain of 484.4 points (0.77%). Currently, the index breaks its descending trend line, with initial resistance observed at 64,196; surpassing this level may prompt a test of secondary resistance near 65,200. Vigilance regarding stop-loss levels is advisable. Conversely, a closure below 61,650 could instigate downward momentum.
KSE100 IndexThe KSE 100 Index closed its latest trading session at 63,306, marking a notable gain of 490 points (0.78%). Currently, the index is testing its descending trend line, with initial resistance observed at 64,196; surpassing this level may prompt a test of secondary resistance near 65,200. Vigilance regarding stop-loss levels is advisable. Conversely, a closure below 61,650 could instigate downward momentum.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ฑ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ฑ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ก ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ.
In short-term scenario (Q1-Q2, 2024) ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ฑ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐, if it sustains above the critical area it will definitely go up towards the new all time high milestone.
๐ด๐๐กโ๐๐ข๐โ ๐๐ก โ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐๐ข๐ ๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐, but if it could not sustain above the critical area, then it might ๐ ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง all the way between ๐๐๐ - ๐๐๐ or in more severe conditions ๐๐๐ - ๐๐๐.
In my view it would not go very deep down below 55K, however sustainability over critical area is very important.
I hope that the ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐
๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐.
Therefore, ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐
๐๐.
KSE100 KSE100 ANALYSIS
In last 10 years,
> 7/10 times KSE100 ended on Bullish note Year-wise
> 7/10 times January was Positive
> 61796 is an Important Support Level that should
be Sustained Initially
> Next Important Support is 58427
> However, if 67100 is broken and sustained this time,
we may witness 72500 and then 80000
KSE 100 is BullishKSE-100 is extremely bullish for 2024, specifically for the upcoming month of January 2024. There has been no divergence on the RSI, which is a classic indication of trend reversal, moreover the recent pull back is healthy as a new higher low is defined. In the coming weeks, market is more likely to recover and print new higher highs, breaking the previous all time high. The projection of AB=CD pattern indicates that the rally could continue till 80k. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
KSE 100 is BullishKSE-100 is currently facing selling pressure after a parabolic move, it has printed an all time high of 67k, and is currently undergoing a correction, which could possibly define a new higher low for this bullish rally. No divergence on RSI is a clear indicator that the rally is not finished, and there is still some room for upward movement.
Bears are lostThe KSE 100 Index concluded its most recent trading session at 66,223, indicating a positive gain of 1505.56 points or 2.33%. Significantly, the index demonstrates bullish momentum. We advise investors for a cautious stance and focus to explore day trading opportunities with a strict stop loss policy.
Hanging Man Candlestick on KSE100Introduction:
Over the last five months, the KSE 100 Index has displayed a remarkable rally, surging from 39,894 in June 2023 to 56,873 as of today, November 14, 2023โan impressive 42.5% return in a relatively short period. While investors have enjoyed these gains, the current market situation requires a discerning eye.
The Hanging Man Candlestick: A Signal to Exercise Caution:
Today, the KSE 100 Index has formed a hanging man candlestick, indicating a potential reversal. Notably, a similar pattern emerged on October 24, 2023, when the index reached a high of 51121. Surprisingly, that hanging man did not result in a reversal, and the bullish trend persisted.
Precautionary Measures:
While a hanging man candlestick alone doesn't guarantee a trend reversal, historical context prompts us to consider precautionary measures:
Review Portfolio Allocation:
Assess your portfolio allocation and ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance and investment objectives. Consider rebalancing if necessary to maintain a diversified and resilient portfolio.
Set Stop-Loss Orders:
Establish clear stop-loss orders: to limit potential losses in the event of a significant market downturn. This disciplined approach helps protect gains and manage risk.
Stay Informed:
Keep a close eye on market news and economic indicators . Any unexpected developments could impact market sentiment and trigger rapid market movements.
Consider Hedging Strategies:
Conclusion:
As we navigate these dynamic markets, it's crucial to balance technical analysis with historical context. The previous hanging man candle on October 24, 2023, reminds us that not every signal leads to a reversal. Stay vigilant, review your strategies, and adapt to market conditions. #MarketAnalysis #InvestingWisdom #RiskManagement #PSX #KSE100
Testing all times highToday's closing is very important for the index as market is testing major resistance level which was seen 6 years ago. Please be alert to close positions in profit where possible if shares were bought for trading.
If market closes on an upward trend, market can show bullish momentum