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ROMANIAN LEU / U.S. DOLLAR

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RONUSD trade ideas

Romania is focusing on how to respond to the impact of pandemicThe Romanian leu manages to gain against the US dollar yesterday and today, but it is widely expected that the buck will still have the upper hand in the coming days. The US dollar to Romanian leu exchange rate should head to its resistance level in the first half of October as bullish investors look to redeem their losses from the initial days of the pandemic. Right now, Romania is closely focusing on how it will respond to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its economy. Just recently, it was reported that the European Commission approved the reallocation of about 550 million euros in the blocโ€™s cohesion policy to the funding of the countryโ€™s pandemic response budget. The financial aid will be granted to more than 120,000 enterprises and businesses in the country, helping them cope with the crippling impact of the pandemic. This, however, has not helped the cause of the Romanian leu, allowing the buck to seize the opportunity to gain.
Long
by Financebroker
The Romanian leu continues to drag the US dollarThe Romanian leu continues to drag the US dollar following the failed attempt of bullish investors to regain the momentum. The price should go down to its support level, hitting ranges last seen in September 2018, erasing almost two years-rally by bulls. Itโ€™s no new news that the US dollar is currently weakening against most assets because itโ€™s pressured by a ton of factors. This includes the political uncertainties ahead of the much-awaited presidential elections in November. In the past, the United States President Donald Trump suggested that the elections could be delayed until people can safely and securely vote. However, just this week, Trumpโ€™s advisers clarified that the elections will continue on November 3 as initially planned. As for the Romanian leu, its primary strength comes from its correlation to other currencies in the region. Most Central European currencies are rallying and the positive sentiment in the bloc is expected to last longer.
Short
by Financebroker
USDRON: Important test ahead for the next 6 months.USDRON is currently on a strong 1D selling sequence (RSI = 38.588, MACD = -0.024, ADX = 36.022) that is testing the middle trend-line of its long-term Channel Up. On top of that it has formed a 1D Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200). Last time the pair formed this pattern, the price tested the middle trend-line of the Channel Up but after a rebound to the 1D MA50, it broke below it and initiated a 6-month bearish sequence towards the bottom of the Channel. Monitor the price action close to that line and if broken, be prepared to trade a similar pattern. ** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
by InvestingScope
2
USD/RONHere's my take on USD/RON evolution: Looking at USD/RON chart the following may be taken into account, from a technical perspective: * USD has been on an ascending channel (highlighted in gray) vs RON starting Apr'18; * the 50 day Moving Average (MA) highlighted in dark green has been acting as support since then - 4.5 range; * the 200 day MA (light green) is huge support - it has never been pierced (currently sitting at around 4.3); * The graph printed out a huge bull pole (the red ellipse) right when COVID pandemic hit US's stock-market. USD got highly appreciated then, as investors liquidated their positions on the stock market and found refuge in the all-mighty USD. The bull pole maxed out at 4.56 and began printing out the rest of the flag since then, around the 50 MA (4.5); * The purple channel below the graph - the Relative Strength Index doesn't show we're in the overbought or oversold side - it's bang in the middle; All technicals indicate to a strong buy for USD. AB-CD Fibonnaci analysis point out to the next target around 4.68 to be hit by the end of July'20. Stepping back from the technical perspective and seeing the bigger picture in correlation with the graph, we've got the following: * Shelter at home, lock-downs are still in place and may well be up to the end of June'20. This means that the helicopter money US gave out are harder to reach the markets. US should be safe for the next 2 months now from inflation. Personally I'm not a fan of the optimist stagflation scenario. It's not that i don't want it, but I find it really hard to be put into play - it means changing american's mindset from a behavioral economic stance or implying social restrictions (spending caps) - that defies all american's freedom concept and land of possibilities. When US is going to be hit by inflation - shit's gonna hit the fan. I fear for Romania if/when that's going to happen. * I think US's Q2 fillings scheduled for mid July are going to bring up the same kind of reaction the market had in March, refusing the DowJone's and S&P 500's recovery and confirming it as a dead cat bounce, further strengthening USD's position. * Romania's Central Bank has less and less reserves to defend the RON against external pressure. Efforts are made, and attention is distributed in supporting the domestic economy; * Romania's Central bank rate was reduced from 2.5 to 2% on the 23rd of March. Romania's 10Y GOV Bond Yield is about 4.4% (0.4%/year). It's more attractive than what US is offering but why invest in Romania to begin with?; * Standard and Poor's marks Romania as a "BBB-" class country (from a scale of 1 to 18, BBB- is on the 10th position). We're a position away from the "Non Investment Grade Speculative" class. Having these in mind, I'm not offering an investment advice, but based on the above I'm seeing it as a strong buy on USD.
by AlexandruCiocoiu
USD/RON is expected to continue its upwards movement๐”น๐•–๐•—๐• ๐•ฃ๐•– ๐•ช๐• ๐•ฆ ๐•ฃ๐•–๐•’๐•• ๐•ฅ๐•™๐•š๐•ค ๐•š๐••๐•–๐•’, ๐•ก๐•๐•–๐•’๐•ค๐•–, ๐•”๐•๐•š๐•”๐•œ ๐•ฅ๐•™๐•– ๐‹๐ˆ๐Š๐„ ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐•ฅ๐•  ๐•ค๐•ฆ๐•ก๐•ก๐• ๐•ฃ๐•ฅ ๐•ž๐•ช ๐•จ๐• ๐•ฃ๐•œ. ๐•€ ๐•จ๐• ๐•ฆ๐•๐•• ๐•’๐•ก๐•ก๐•ฃ๐•–๐•”๐•š๐•’๐•ฅ๐•– ๐•š๐•ฅ. The pair is expected to continue its upwards movement after it bounced back from an uptrend support line. Romania has been the next target of US militarization. The shift in the US defense strategy comes amid the widening gap in the relationship between Washington and Ankara. The United States was already able to establish a strong relation with the V4 Nations (Hungary, Poland, Czeckia, and Slovakia). However, among the eastern bloc, Romania was the most vulnerable. The country was also sitting is a major geopolitical location as it borders Ukraine. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimean, a Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is a candidate for accession in the European Union and the US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) alliance. The US has recently appointed a Resident Legal Advisor to Romania to help the country combat corruption, money laundering, organized crime, and possibly to shrug off any Chinese influence.
by Financebroker
USDRON: Long opportunity on the 1M Channel Up.The pair has started to rebound after last week's Higher Low within the 1M Channel Up (RSI = 61.167, MACD = 0.070, Highs/Lows = 0.0555). The 1D RSI has still room to rise before reaching the 68.35 - 72.00 peak zone. Since every Higher Low within the Channel Up has extended at least a +4.83% we calculate the next Higher High around 4.4500. Our Target Zone is 4.4000 - 4.4500. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Long
by InvestingScope