AUD Future SEP 2018 (1d)Trading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 0.7370
Stop Loss (SL) : 0.7349
Take Profit (TP) : 0.7457, 0.7530
Description
A6 formed Double Repo Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Limit at 0.382 Level (0.7370) and place stop after 0.618 level (0.7349). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (0.7457) and 0.7530
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $133,000
Risk Management (1%) : $1,330
Position Sizing
$0.0001 = +-$10 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.0021 = -$210/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 6 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.0087 = +$870 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0.0160 = +$1,600 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$29.64
Loss = -$1,260
Gain#1 = +$2,610
Gain#2 = +$4,800
Total Gain = +$7,410
Risk/Reward Ratio = 5.75
AU1! trade ideas
Loonie turning up on longer term chartsAs commodity brokers, we are no doubt always trying to ascertain what type of market we are currently in for Commodities; Bear, Sideways or Bull, in order to better assist our client base. One of the indicators we look at are a technical analysis of the often referred to "Commodity Currencies" the Aussie Dollar and the Canadian Dollar (the Loonie), A crossover of the more sensitive , shorter term moving average is about to occur from underneath the slower, longer term SMA, indicating a potential Bull market for the Commodity Sector.
Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.
The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.
There is not an actual account trading these recommendations.
Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
Aussie Price EqulibriumAfter one week bull still can't save Aussie from edge, will this week Aussie bull save it or let the Aussie done and turn SELL on Aussie ....
Can Bull save Aussie from Crashed ???The Aussie at Critical and edge level to survive, will Aussie survive ???
Long Term Outlook for Austrailian Dollar FuturesIts been very strong so far contrarian to what most analysts are expecting... so we will see. It will be very dependent on what US does with interest rates over the next year.
Australian dollar targetAustralian dollar target is 0.83. Strength in metals is supporting the aussie. Look for buying opportunities. Probability H.
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 2.1The psychological aspect and my thought process
Hello everybody, I'm so sorry that the migration did not as fast as I'd like it to be and, finally on last it's done and I can be back on trading.
Before i touch on how i would trade, i suddenly thought sharing my thought process would make so much more sense because literally you
will understand how i use my strategies. I felt there are so many good systems around but it becomes ineffective in may cases because i
cannot execute it the way its creator does perfectly. After trading for many years, i also felt the best strategies, whether its original or
copied, will be successful if it becomes your "strategy". This requires a lot of practise, patience and perseverance to keep trying.
So if you are feeling lost out there, don't be because everyone goes through almost the same process.
I'd like to do a quick recap on what has been shared so far.
In part 1, I spoke mostly on breakout on the A6 traded on CME and then, how to use a simple pullback to trade it.
Part 2 follows up on part 1 which focus on not chasing the market if you have missed it as in most cases, from the 3rd impulse move(up)
onward as it loses momentum.
Rushing into trading a trend that has lost its momentum can keep you longer in a position longer then it should be. This exposes you to risk
which can be external (unexpected central bank announcements, data announcements, war etc) or internally which is your psychology at that
moment. If you are trading smaller account, the trade locks up your capital which may also lead to additional holding cost or opportunity risk.
In some cases, it frustrates you so much that you start doing funny things like scalping, averaging in, adjusting stops etc.
Why lose good money after bad? Trust me if you do get into such scenarios, just bite the bullet and cut it off!! Learn from it.
The worse that happened to me was, i used to average in and adjust stops frequently for a period of time and occasionally make money out of it.
Somehow, this creeps and lived in my sub conscious for a long time and unknowingly caused big draw downs and almost destroy me mentally and
financially
The next time, just practise and train yourself to be patience if you do encounter such a scenario and ask yourself 3 questions:
1) How many moves the market has made in this direction (stick to your time frame, do not use multiple time frame here!)
2) What is the risk to reward if i enter?
3) Trade smaller
Just try to do this and you will see how much you benefit from making small and simple steps that shape your thought process and produces results
which also reinforces positive psychology which is confidence!
In part 2.2, i will produce a quick peek into my thought process and share how i would trade using another simple technique.
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 2Hello everyone, i haven't been publishing much this week due to some platform migration issues. So, keeping my fingers
cross that all will be resolved next week, Now, i'd just concentrate on delivering my educational series and hope to
continue to benefit the trading public.
In the first part, i shared a very simple momentum trading strategy. Simplicity works and allow you to make quick decisions
if you are doing day trading. However, it does work on longer time frame as well. Do your own back testing and see how to
make a strategy yours.
So, after the strong up move, which i defined as the "impulse" move the instrument will come to a point where it loses the
momentum. Profit taking, sellers taking up new positions, some news announcement whatever the case is. It doesn't really
matter why. As a trader my thoughts are: "i want to go long assuming a longer uptrend is forming". Start to build a case
around it. You can be on the sell side if you want to but my experiences tells me the chances of it going higher is there.
What if it doesn't? Well, that is why I have a stop loss in place.
So, if you refer to the chart above, the market is in the 3rd stage of the impulse move. Usually from the 3rd to 5th move,
i don't bother too much until the uptrend line broke. So, the market has pierce through several structural resistances before
a nice shooting star formation ended the impulse up move. Why do i still want to long? Again simplicity is at work. As long as
the previous "New Structure High, Higher Low" remains intact my view does not change. There are tons of information which
you can google on these terms. Feel free to study it.
I'd be back on Part 2.1 with the actual trading plan as soon as possible! Till then, try to understand not the trading but how i
shape my thinking before i trade it. Nothing is more important as developing the thought process.
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 1. (Education)This will be a relatively shorter post and is a follow up on Part 1 (phew.... Good for me and you LOL)
So, i got this situation where there was a breakout on the 4 hour, mark with a dash line on the 1 hour.
The first thing that came to my mind will be:
A) I want to long
B) I will not short even if there is a reversal (Unless 7700 is broken)
C) Where will i long? What is my initial risk to reward?
So, instead of chasing price action, i'd use a very simple method for a certain completion of the latest low.
The key part to succeed here is you have to start watching the market and wait for a classical higher high
higher low formation usually in the form of 2 candles.
You might be asking "Don't you use some sort of indicator"? As a matter of fact, i rarely use it because i find
it too troublesome. I'm watching a lot of markets and i'm not going to throw all my eggs in one trade.
But if you want, i could use an ATR (for stop distance placement) or RSI (below 80 or above 20). That's it.
So, after the formation of "higher high, higher low", my entry is 2 pips above its last high, and 3-5 pips below
the swing low. Don't worry about it because my first target is usually conservative at 1:1 risk to reward and
likely i'd take half or one third. No right or wrong but try to fix at predetermine amount to exit.
The position size i take is never more then 2 percent of my equity but the actual size depend on the stop
placement.
Once this is achieved, i simply move my stop to break even and target 1:2 risk to reward. I may have exited fully
or still have one third of position left. I'd simply trail it with swing highs and low. Remember the golden rule that
stop can only move when it is meant to lock more profits then before.
I felt this is a very simple way to trade and is easily executable by anyone although it does take a lot of practise to
do so. Why rush anyway? Trading is a marathon and the longer you are in the race, the more you are likely to succeed!
I hope this simple method helps you. Free free to drop me any questions i'd try to answer as much as possible!
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 1. (Education) Please ignore the previous post as I lost internet connection
Dear all, as mentioned i not only want to share trading signals and ideals but more on my psychology.
There are tons of signals and ideals just on this platform itself. I do not see I'm the best out there, nor
am I not trying to be special or trying to sell something. I have always been wanting to contribute to
the community and this is one of the best way to do it. The more I share, the more i learn as well.
My view of a trading career is that it'd be one of the toughest endeavor you undertake in your life
because you need to be constantly aware of your own emotions, keeping your actions in check and
be patience. I mean, who can do this day to day? I can't for sure. There are countless days where
emotions creep in and before I knew it, I did something totally contrary to my plan. My honest
opinion is, I can never be perfect. What I do is to admit that and find ways to be better, but stop
trying to be perfect because the market never is as well. HAHA.
*** Please bear with my "English", I've a lot to improve on for myself on that. ***
I'm breaking down this into a few series because it can be very dry to read all at one shot.
OK, let me start by going back to the very beginning in which a 4 hour Bullish Bat is discovered. If I
go to a larger time frame, we can see that A6 has been on an uptrend on a longer term basis when
it broke 7700. Momentum was good. This move began on 13th July and lasted all the way to 27th.
(The first part is dedicated to momentum and swing traders)
It's always easy when we are conducting post mortem analysis on price action. Who can't see its an
uptrend and we should go long? While that is true, there ain't much ways to learn besides that.
I don't see much of a issue if, you already have a trade plan that encompass a entry, stop loss
and viable risk to reward ratio. Such post mortem exercise are only useful if you do it in a meaningful
way.
So, with the beginning of the break on 7700, this instrument should already be on your radar.
The first thing that comes into my mind is:
1) This breakout is confirmed as the close above 7700 is confirmed.
You have to believe in it because you can't execute or take action if you don't. This is the point
where previous false breakout creeps into your mind and says: "haha you are not going to fool me!".
If you develop such habitual thinking, you are going to face a lot of execution problems and this
is where many attempt to trade "tops" or reversals, in total contrary to a swing trade long.
Trading requires a lot of muscle memory. To be successful trading momentum and swing, you must
constantly cast away contradicting signals and focus on your predetermined swing or momentum quantifiers.
Build it into your subconscious by practice.
2) Accept that the best plan will fail.
Having said the first point, are we going to be stubborn and keep trading?
The answer is no. You see, even the best get it wrong. So, I personally propose let the market decide on that.
If you have a plan, you always have a stop loss. A stop loss is there to tell you to review your trade plan if
you got stop out. By the way, if you have the habit of moving your stops, I'd suggest you practice to keep it.
Personally, I only move stops when my trade becomes profitable. Once an entry is triggered, believe in your
plan and let the market decide.
3) Do not be greedy.
Again, I cannot emphasize enough on sticking to the plan. In the last 10 years, greed has been one of the emotions
that affects my trades a lot. Who doesn't want a winner? Umpteen times with good profits I failed to capture and
ended up being stop out. "Revenge" is sweet. The vicious cycle of doubling up, moving my stop loss began and by
the time I realize it, I had a big loss. So, when you enter the market, a stop loss and profit targets is a must.
A6 retraces back into range but into favorable long positionSame for A6. So currently, on my watch list to long is A6, E6, GC and short ES(Active)
Breakout or reversal?
Pardon me for not cleaning up the chart because I want to use it as a form of reminder
how precarious trading can be if I am too obstinate on certain directions in the market
and how fast market can change its opinion.
Ok, now for A6, i'm ready to take a trade if there is a lower high lower low candle being
form on the 1 hour. In classical candlestick reading, i'd need a 3 bar formation which
confirms a reversal, place my stop above the high. I'd first target the nearest support and
then the next one. This is a counter trend trade with higher risk but if you want to trade
it go ahead.
Hell of a mess on the A6!
Hi i just want to flash the chart of A6 because it was one of the hardest to trade recently.
The good thing is, i did not trade it because
A) My Bullish 4 Hour pattern was not filled
B) The down channel broke before i could trade
C) The bearish Bat on 1 hour was invalidated when price takes out point X
I decided to use this as education material and i'm going to do a write up during this weekend.
A nice short term channel to short - 1hr/15min + Bullish Bat
There is an underneath nice Bullish bat on the 4 hour, and a bearish channel to trade on short term.
Here is how i picture it:
Short the AUD/USD with 15min and plan for a longer term entry as the downward channel leads
price to the Bullish Bat pattern. My trading on the channel is a vision that price gets overbought
on the high of the channel, coupled with RSI overbought or, a structure short level.
On the Bullish Bat, stop is below point X, and target is along 38.2% and 61.8% retracement from entry
D point back to C point.
