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#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Market only went lower through spikes, which were followed by a pullback. This is not as strong as it looks and I do think it’s likely that bears get disappointed next week. 2600 is possible but that is the lowest I can see this going for now. Any long closer to 2626 is an amazing trade. I have an open bull gap there and I highly doubt bears will be able to close it. For now bears have turned the daily 20ema into resistance and if you want higher probability on your longs, wait for a breakout above 2725. Quote from last week: comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price. comment : Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo. current market cycle: Best guess right now is a bigger trading range 2600-2800. key levels: 2600 - 2800 bull case: Bulls failed at 2700 and if they don’t close a daily bar above 2720 soon, we could test down to 2600, which is where I expect many more buyers to enter the market again. We have an open bull gap, the October low and the weekly 20 ema in the price area. I do think the closer you can long to 2600, the better the trade. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears had 2 spikes down now and they could get a third before I see this going higher again. Bears know that each sell spike was followed by a bull bar, so the trend down is weak and will likely find it’s bottom soon. Bears will likely wait for another pullback higher to daily 20ema and/or bear trend line around 2710, before trying for a third leg down. Invalidation is above 2730. outlook last week: short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710. → Last Sunday we traded 2749 and now we are at 2694. Good outlook, market got even 50 points lower than my target. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2600 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more. Update: Changed 2700 to 2600, since market broke strongly below 2700 already. Trading range is still my preferred path forward, just the lower end went down 100 points. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD OUTLOOK for the rest of Q4 2024 and Weekly Outlook In this outlook I share my elite edge that I've never shared before with anyone, in hopes that it will help you with obtaining the biggest moves in your trading career. In my opinion, I believe that we have capped the high for the Gold trading year, and now we are trading the closing wick back into the overall range. In this broadcast I share projections and insights that should help you get on side with the market so that you can participate in the massive move on the near horizon. Thanks and enjoy.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by chaarate
Commodities: Safeguarding Your Wealth in Uncertain TimesInvesting in Commodities: A Comprehensive Guide In the quest for a balanced investment portfolio, commodities emerge as a crucial component, contributing to diversification and risk management. Commodities refer to raw materials or primary agricultural products traded globally, ranging from oil and gold to corn and wheat. Their unique characteristics offer investors opportunities to safeguard their assets and potentially profit during economic fluctuations, making them an essential element in mitigating risks associated with stock and bond markets. At their core, commodities are fundamental materials employed in the production of goods and services, acting as a foundation for the global economy. These assets can be traded, bought, or sold, with their market value primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics. Unlike equities or fixed-income instruments, which represent ownership stakes or debt commitments, commodities are tangible resources that investors can physically possess or leverage for financial gain. The primary allure of commodities lies in their potential to hedge against inflation and enhance portfolio diversification. Their often independent price movements compared to traditional asset classes, like stocks and bonds, make them valuable during times of economic uncertainty. For instance, when inflation rises, the prices of commodities frequently increase, preserving investor purchasing power and protecting against currency devaluation. Commodities can be broadly classified into two categories: - Hard Commodities: This group includes energy resources such as oil and natural gas, as well as metals like gold, silver, and platinum. - Soft Commodities: These encompass agricultural products like wheat, corn, and coffee, along with livestock such as cattle and hogs. By diversifying investments across both categories, investors can tap into various market trends and opportunities, whether it’s responding to geopolitical events affecting oil prices or poor harvests leading to increases in agricultural commodity costs. Investing in commodities can take several forms, each with distinct characteristics and associated risks. Here are the main avenues available to investors: - Direct Purchase Buying physical commodities—like gold bars or silver coins—allows investors to own tangible assets. This method provides a straightforward hedge against inflation but comes with challenges in terms of storage and security, particularly for significant investments. - Futures Contracts Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a specified quantity of a commodity at a predetermined price on a future date. While futures trading can yield high returns due to leverage, it also poses substantial risks, requiring a thorough understanding of market dynamics and careful management. - Commodity ETFs Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that track the prices of individual commodities or a basket of them offer a more passive investment option. These funds provide liquidity and diversification without the need for physical ownership or the complexities of futures trading. - Commodity Stocks Rather than investing directly in commodities, one can consider buying shares of companies engaged in the production of commodities, such as mining firms or oil companies. This strategy allows investors to benefit indirectly from commodity price movements while also receiving dividends. - Contracts for Difference (CFDs) CFDs are agreements that enable investors to speculate on commodity price movements without owning the underlying assets. This trading method is well-suited for experienced investors looking to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations but comes with amplified risks due to leverage. Gold Futures Monthly Chart from 1975 - Hedge Against Inflation Commodities are often viewed as a safe haven during inflationary periods. As general prices rise, so too do commodity values, making them an effective strategy for preserving purchasing power. - Portfolio Diversification Incorporating commodities into an investment strategy can enhance diversification. They generally exhibit low or negative correlations with stocks and bonds, helping to cushion portfolios against market downturns. - Cyclical Performance Commodities typically respond to economic cycles, performing well during times of growth when demand increases. Conversely, they may benefit from investor behavior during market instability, particularly in the case of precious metals. - Supply and Demand Insights Investors can leverage the fundamental principles of supply and demand to identify profitable investment opportunities. For instance, seasonal changes or geopolitical disruptions may create market imbalances affecting commodity prices. While the potential rewards of commodity investing are considerable, the associated risks warrant careful consideration: - Price Volatility Commodity markets can be highly volatile. Investors may face sharp price swings, influenced by speculation, macroeconomic trends, or unexpected changes in supply and demand, which can lead to significant financial losses. - Geopolitical Instability Conflicts and political events can disrupt commodity supply chains, spurring unexpected price changes. For example, sanctions on oil-exporting countries can impact global supply and drive up prices. - Environmental Changes Natural events, including droughts and extreme weather, significantly impact agricultural commodities, while environmental regulations can affect energy-related assets. These factors introduce unpredictability and risk into commodity investments. Silver Futures Monthly Chart from 1975 Interested in exploring commodity investments? Here’s a step-by-step guide to help navigate this investment landscape: - Evaluate Your Risk Appetite Before you commence commodity trading, assess your risk tolerance. If you prefer stable investments, consider allocating funds to less volatile commodities or diversified commodity ETFs. Conversely, if you’re open to high-risk scenarios, explore potential opportunities in more volatile markets. - Select the Right Commodities Research and identify commodities that align with your financial goals. For instance, gold may serve as a hedge against inflation, while industrial metals may thrive during economic growth phases. - Determine Your Investment Method Choose from various investment methods, whether direct purchases, futures, ETFs, stocks, or CFDs. Each approach carries its risk/reward profile, so it’s paramount to select one that suits your investment strategy. Cocoa Futures Monthly Chart from 1980 Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, several trends will shape the landscape of commodity investing: - Transition to Green Energy The ongoing shift toward renewable energy is poised to affect traditional fossil fuels, especially oil. As nations aim to reduce carbon footprints, the demand for oil may taper, albeit gradually, while renewable energy commodities like lithium and cobalt gain momentum. - Emerging Markets Demand Countries in rapid industrialization, particularly in Asia, are expected to drive demand for industrial metals. Investors should keep a close watch on these markets as they become increasingly vital players in the global commodity landscape. - Rising Interest in Renewable Commodities As the world gravitates toward sustainable practices, the demand for renewable commodities essential for electric vehicles and clean energy technologies is anticipated to surge. This shift presents exciting investment opportunities aligned with the growing push for decarbonization. Copper Futures Monthly Chart from 1988 In conclusion, investing in commodities presents both opportunities and challenges. For those looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation, commodities can be an attractive option. However, the inherent volatility and unique risks make it crucial for investors to carefully consider their financial objectives and risk tolerance. By staying informed about market trends, employing sound strategies, and understanding the dynamics of both supply and demand, investors can navigate the complex world of commodities to potentially achieve long-term success. Embracing this asset class effectively entails a proactive approach, ensuring alignment with broader investment goals in an ever-evolving financial landscape. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by FOREXN1
1
2024-11-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bullish target was met with 2650 and now it’s big decision time. Bear trend line and daily 20ema was hit. By Friday we will know which way market wants to go. Expecting sideways to down tomorrow but everything below 2600 would surprise me. comment : Very bullish week so far to potentially big resistance. My preferred path is a two legged correction and we are in the A of it. Market has to pull back soon but if bulls get above 2660, we will see 2700 soon. Last thing I want to do this week is looking for shorts in this. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2620 - 2700 bull case: Bulls are in control again. They now only need a strong close above the daily ema to make the last bears run for the exits. Can they get it before a pullback? I doubt that. Not much more magic to it. Big bull trend is still valid but the peak euphoria is over and we will likely see more bearish legs in between since bears made big money previous 2 weeks. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears who sold late are trapped, they need a pullback to get out of their position. They are at 3 very important prices. Breakout retest is around 2650-2660, daily ema is here and the 50% retracement is at 2672. If these are not good enough for the market to pull back to 2600 or lower, nothing will. Invalidation is above 2670. short term : Neutral. Expecting a pullback and then another big rally to at least 2750. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-17: Tough call for the rest of the year. If I had to guess I’d say that we rally to 2800 again before year end, just so we can sell off beginning of 2024 but it’s pure guesswork as of now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 2625, which market tried for 3 hours to close a 15m bar below and could not. Buying it was good for 350 ticks.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Is it possible for gold prices to reach $5000?Is it possible for gold prices to reach $5000? Gold reached $2,600 an ounce on Monday, recovering after a week of record declines in 2021 as the U.S. dollar stabilized. The latest U.S. data show that retail sales rose more than expected in October, revealing the strength of the economy. Last week, comments by some Federal Reserve officials added uncertainty about possible rate cuts and their timing. At the moment, markets estimate about a 65 percent probability of a 25 percent rate cut in December. Investors now focus on upcoming statements by other Fed policymakers during this week, hoping to get clearer indications of the direction of interest rates in the United States in the coming months. After the Republican candidate's victory in the presidential election, investors rushed to Wall Street to put their money in various assets, such as stocks (SP500) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD), which has soared to an impressive 90,000. However, there seems to have been one asset that did not benefit from this celebration: gold (XAUUSD). The price of spot gold (XAUUSD) fell by 6.44 percent. This decrease can be attributed to the fact that gold-usually considered a safe haven asset-is not particularly attractive when Trump's tax cut and tariff policies promise to stimulate the Wall Street stock market. Currently, the market seems unconcerned about U.S. credit risk. If excessive fiscal deficits or loss of independence were a real Gold prices have fallen significantly recently, but we expect a stop to this trend soon. Our target of $2850 in the short term remains valid. There are several options for investing in gold. One can opt for a euro ETF to protect against currency risk or choose a dollar ETF. Another interesting alternative is to buy a share in a gold mining company. One of the most interesting sectors is gold mining, particularly NEWMONT(NEM). Currently, Newmont's value is significantly underestimated at $45 per share, considering the scenario of a significant increase in the price of gold by 2025. With its vast gold reserves, low production costs, solid balance sheet, and high dividend yield, we believe the current price is an excellent entry point for investors. Based on the company's historically low P/E ratio, we suggest that there may be a 50 percent discount to its potential long-term value, with a price target between $90-100 per share over the next 18-24 months. The recent election has only confirmed my concerns about a dramatic increase in inflation rates next year. This will put a strain on foreign investors, international central banks, hedge funds and other large investors who will be looking for safe hedging. In addition, as demand for and supply of gold (and also silver and platinum) grows and dwindles, the precious metal will be increasingly in demand as a “store of value” and “safe currency,” likely driving prices well above $3,000 an ounce in 2024. During Trump's first term, which ran from January 2017 to January 2021, investors who owned gold and Newmont stocks reaped significant benefits. With tax cuts, the Fed's growth in money printing, and the adoption of trade tariffs, the perfect combination to encourage safe gold-related investments has repeated itself. And this scenario could well repeat itself in the future. At the geopolitical level, current tensions in the Middle East and the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia could lead to an increase in safe-haven assets, providing further support for the gold price. In addition, with the continued risk of conflict between Taiwan and China, gold prices could exceed $4,000.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
A bearish outlook on Gold: Waiting for the right entry pointsRecent Performance: Gold has displayed signs of volatility recently, with a notable decline of over 4%, marking its largest sell-off of the year. Prices dropped sharply from recent highs, reaching crucial support levels around $2,550. Despite managing to remain above an important yearly opening price at $2,066, the overall market sentiment leans bearish due to profit-taking and a strengthened US dollar. - Key Insights: Traders are advised to exercise caution and wait for potential pullbacks before entering new sell positions. Current market conditions present opportunities for buying gold with confirmation rather than impulsively. The significant shift in institutional activity suggests a growing bearish sentiment towards long positions in gold. - Expert Analysis: Market analysts and traders expect continued selling pressure on gold, particularly if it breaches the $2,550 support level. The upcoming FOMC meeting in December may provide additional direction, but for now, a bearish trend seems likely to carry into next week. The environment of economic uncertainty may still encourage cautious buying. - Price Targets: Based on the wisdom of all professional traders, the following targets and stops have been established: Next week targets: - Target 1: $2,400 - Target 2: $2,600 Stop levels: - Stop 1: $2,300 - Stop 2: $2,200 Longer-term targets suggest a potential bounce back to $2,800 by early next year. - News Impact: The dollar's continued strength and shifts in interest rates are impacting gold prices negatively. Additionally, significant global movements, such as increased buying interest from BRICS nations, reflect changing dynamics in the precious metals market, which are likely to influence gold's trajectory in the weeks ahead. Gold remains under pressure, and its performance next week will hinge on the strength of key support levels and broader market sentiment.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. This selling is bonkers tbh. It’s so unbelievably rare that markets have such a strong rally and do not respect the trend line at all at such important prices like 2700 and 2600. A bounce is overdue but man, being bullish on Gold has not paid for more than 2 weeks. 2570 is a bad spot to trade. We can easily test down to 2500 before we see a bigger bounce. Can’t be anything but neutral. Quote from last week: comment: Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo. comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable. current market cycle: Bull trend on the brink of being over, either bulls turn hard and go above 2600 or 2400 awaits. It’s possible that we have already transitioned into a trading range and the ath 2801 will be the top of it. key levels: 2500 - 2800 bull case: Right at the weekly 20ema, which has been bought for over a year. Also retested the July high, which was previous resistance for 5 months until the market finally broke strongly above it. And also trading at the lower bull trend line which started in February. Those are more than enough perfect reasons to buy this dip and I do expect bulls to try at least retesting 2620 early next week and likely the current bear trend line around 2650. The 4h 20ema has been resistance since the selling began and once bulls conquer it again, we could see acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears know the selling is climactic and a proper bounce is overdue. Can they get 2500 before we get 2650 is the biggest question imo and as always, I don’t have a crystal ball. I will see if 2560 continues to be support on Monday and if we can break above 2580, which was been big resistance on Friday. Bears want to stay below 2600 and the longer they can, the less aggressive the bulls will be. 4h 20ema was resistance for the whole move down and until claimed, it continues to be. Invalidation is above 2630. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again. → Last Sunday we traded 2694 and now we are at 2570. Bad outlook. Bears were much stronger than expected. short term: Neutral until bulls claim 2630 again. 2540 just has to hold or if we spike down to 2500 we would have to see huge buying or this will flush down more. Bears are in full control until market trades above the 4h ema again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-17: Tough call for the rest of the year. If I had to guess I’d say that we rally to 2800 again before year end, just so we can sell off beginning of 2024 but it’s pure guesswork as of now. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted possible bear trend lines and deleted closed bull gap.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Gold Futures exactly at mid channel support. Gold futures are exactly at Mid-Channel Support for Gold Enthusiasts. Mother line support is already broken after head and shoulders formation in Gold. Gold Futures CMP is 75200. If Mid-Channel support 74436 (Major Support) is broken we can see gold fall to 73175 or even 71192 levels where Gold will come down to meet the Father line support of 200 days EMA. Resistances for gold on the upper side seem to be at 75836 (Major Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA). 76498, 77683 and 79K. Gold is looking little weak on charts and if Mid-Channel support is broken 74436 it will become vulnerable. To Know more about Parallel Channel and Mother, Father and Small Child theory mentioned in the above message. Do read my book (The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation) available in E-version on Google Play books and Kindle. Paperback Edition is available on Amazon. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
MCX:GOLD1!
by Happy_Candles_Investment
11/12/2024 GOLD daily and hourly. Watch 2626 price reaction.Oct 31 hourly sell signal hit, daily chart has just targeted at 2800. continued push down has not put price below Daily sell line. 2624. I will be playing continued downside moves, while also watching for a CHOC. However--->>A hourly buy point 2656 and daily buy point of 2652 is extremely likely to hit, since lots of orders will be sitting there. Hourly charts needs to hold above 2626 first. Watch 2626 price reaction.... will buyers take over and hold, or will sellers hold and push to new lows.
COMEX:GC1!
by dnelsonsp
GOLD THE S&P 11.8.24 I that some of these markets are overbought and that there should be some corrections lower. up the gold market corrected about $10,000 and then it reversed about $7000.... but it looks like it might go lower to the lower range box which I explained in the video . I thought I needed to put in realistic stops because you need to know what they are. if I tell you gold is a great trade because I think $2000 stop is a small stop... you and I may not agree on what a small stop is. but if I can risk $2000 to make $9000 that is a risk of willing to take. you still have to know what a stop looks like not just the range and you do that through looking at the chart a daily or a four-hour chart. in addition, there are subtle changes in the market that can give you a clue that you can stay in longer or that you should get out sooner and so you look for these behaviors.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
The #1 Reason Why Buying Gold Is Hard Right NowBuying gold is a bit of a challenge for me because I am so used to buying bitcoin But what i have noticed is that When bitcoin goes up gold goes down and vice versa.. so my idea of buying gold Is to buy it at the same time as bitcoin but account for the drawdown of about 5% its not pretty but it will work in the long run Again am not a fun of trading gold COMEX:GC1! With margin but its a good one to consider right now that the market is quiet from good entries and we are standing on the sidelines during this crazy market mania. Even though am thinking You can still buy Bitcoin but look at the stochastic RSI below the chart you can see the moving averages crossing. The only challenge with trading Gold and silver is the volatility is crazy so if you dont mind the ride Then you can take it just remember to use the stochastic rsi as your guide to know whether the price is cheap or not. Personally, i have re-entered the Bitcoin CME:BTC1! price action, It may crash next week But at least your Bitcoin Buy should sustain you with some profit. So for this one Buy Gold, silver and Bitcoin according to this chart Buy Gold using the daily stochastic rsi chart after the Bitcoin buy signal Also, this price action follows the rocket booster strategy To learn more about this strategy check out the references below Remember to rocket boost this content to learn more Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies. Because you will Lose money whether you like it or not.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi