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GOLD MARKET OVERVIEW The precious metal closed at $2,327 per ounce, sweeping liquidity as prices are expected to re-ranges around the 2360s. With the third quarter of the year approaching and ongoing instability, involving the Feds and central banks in East and Central Asia recurs as gold remains a valuable asset and a safe haven with growth potential. Despite expectations of rising inflation and the possibility of the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates this year, gold prices are still declining. For a confirmed sell momentum, we need to see a decisive break back to the preliminary supply zone at $2,370-$2,385.follow for more insights as the next insights will be published via the comment section ......boost idea and comment .
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Ak_capitalist
3
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Gold comment: 2350 is the big line in the sand for both sides. Bears did it big time by closing below the big bull trend line from March and consecutive daily closes below the 20ema. Problem for them is, 2300 - 2350 was huge support for 2 months now and I doubt bears can break it that easily. My bear channel from the weekly outlook is still valid though. current market cycle: tight trading range key levels: 2350 - 2380 bull case: Big support 2300-2350 and bulls need a daily close above the ema (2380) again. Right now they have not shown strength but neither have the bears or we would have traded lower already. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Bears see this as a small pull-back in the new bear trend (started with the double top on the daily chart) down to 2170-2200. They need much bigger selling pressure to get below 2300 though. Invalidation is above 2390. short term: Completely neutral inside given range. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long low of last week 2349 after bar 3 (signal bar) - bar 4 = entry bar
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Gold shock correction nears endMarket participants will also be closely watching comments from Fed officials next week. The chance that the Fed will adjust policy in September remains slightly above 50%, according to data from the CME Fed Watch Tool. Market positioning suggests the dollar could face selling pressure if Fed policymakers leave the door open to a rate cut in September. On the other hand, if Fed officials favor a rate cut closer to the end of the year, the U.S. dollar may hold its ground, making it difficult for gold to gain traction. However, policymakers still have several inflation and employment data to assess before September, and they may not send any clear signals on the timing of a policy shift. The market will also see appearances from several regional Fed presidents. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina. New York Fed President Williams will speak at a conference in California; Fed Governor Cook will speak in Washington, D.C., and Chicago Fed President Goolsby will speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota. In terms of short-term rhythm, looking at the market price in four hours, the pressure position is obviously at the integer mark of 2,400 US dollars, and there is no physical closing line above 2,400 US dollars. At best, it was suppressed by a virtual break of $2,400. However, as the market price hit the $2,400 mark many times and failed to form an effective breakthrough, it then adjusted downward and corrected, which is what we often talk about accumulating strength. If US$2,400 to US$2,292 is regarded as the first wave downward revision, then US$2,252 to US$2,282 is the third wave downward revision. The correction decline is not a decline in the main trend, and the maximum correction wave does not exceed three waves. And the decline in each wave will be compressed. This wave, which is the third wave correction, will be based on the high point of $2327. Combined with the double bottom position of 2267, there is a high probability that the correction will be completed at the $2267 line. So that means the area around $2,267 is what we think is the correction low. In terms of specific layout, the third wave of downward revision has not yet completed, and next week it is still necessary to make a high-altitude pullback layout, and then retrace $2,267 before making a backhand. At the beginning of the week, focus on 2310 to suppress the first short-selling layout. Below, focus on the 2292, 2282 and 2267 positions. Focus on the first-line opportunity of touching 2267, and start to place long orders on the backhand. When the correction is completed, the bulls will return! Taken together, in terms of short-term gold operation ideas next week, Jin Shengfu recommends to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus will be on the 2308-2310 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term will focus on the 2265-2267 first-line support. All friends must keep up. Rhythm. It is necessary to control positions and stop loss issues, set stop losses strictly, and never resist orders. The recent market turmoil has been relatively large, and opportunities and risks coexist. Control risks and gain profits.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Kevin-analyst9
2
GOLD analysis Gold began the week with a downward trend but has seen some recovery. This movement is influenced by the weakening US Dollar, driven by disappointing PMI data that indicates a slowdown in private sector growth. Additionally, a lower-than-expected GDP growth rate and persistent inflationary pressures have contributed to gold's recent price movements​. Sentiment analysis shows mixed signals with some expecting continued consolidation within the $2,400-$2,450 range, while others foresee potential upward movement towards $2,500 as economic conditions evolve.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TFXBR
Gold fluctuates repeatedly in downward trendTraders see a 64% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates will make holding non-yielding gold more attractive. Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April, while year-on-year wage growth fell below 4.0% for the first time in nearly three years. New York Fed President Williams said on Monday that the Fed will lower its interest rate target at an undetermined point. Investors are paying close attention to the latest developments in the conflict in the Middle East. Palestinian militant group Hamas agreed on Monday to a Gaza ceasefire proposal put forward by mediators, but Israel said the conditions did not meet its demands and continued its strikes in Rafah while planning to continue negotiations to reach an agreement. The gold market continues to face significant upward pressure as it is used to protect wealth from devaluation as well as global geopolitical issues. Gold technical analysis: Gold prices maintained an upward trend on Monday. In early trading, the price fell back to the 2291 line and rebounded. Asian, European and American markets continued to fluctuate and rise, reaching a maximum of 2332 and closing at 2324. The price fluctuates in the range of 2335-2277. Today, continue to focus on the upper resistance 2332-2338 and the lower support 2281-2277. The short defensive position is currently at the 2352 line. Only by breaking through and stabilizing the 2352 line can the end of this downward trend be confirmed. In terms of gold's short-term operation today, it is recommended to go short on rebounds and long on callbacks. The upper short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 2330-2332, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2281-2277 first-line support.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Kevin-analyst9
Good Evening and I hope you are well.gold futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320. comment: Market got it’s 2450 and some, formed a higher high double top and sold off for 127 points. We are right at the lower bull channel trend line and it’s a higher low. Bad place to trade or make predictions. I do think 2454 is a credible high for a decade. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2290 - 2454 bull case: Bulls met all targets above imo and had their retest and the double top. They need to keep this above 2330 to not risk an accelerated selling. Above 2350 would be better to trade back inside the bull channel again. It’s still a small pull-back on the weekly chart and the weekly 20ema is around 2250, that’s far away. I expect bulls to get a pull-back here to at least the daily 20ema at 2360 or the breakout price 2380. bear case: Bears printed 2 big consecutive bear bars last week and the selling was strong enough to get a second leg. Measured move would bring us right to 2200, so naturally I drew a nice channel for you. R:R here is clearly on the short side. Bears need to keep it below 2380 and make lower lows below 2285. Will write an update on Gold in my Monday after hours. outlook last week: “Small pull-back before another test of 2448 (typo said 2348) or higher. Invalid below 2370.” → Last Sunday we traded 2417 and now we are at 2334. Thought small pull-back and then gave an update on Monday that I entered swing short at 2429 and gave that for free in my after hour update. That positions is now 950 ticks in profit. Hope you made some. short term: Sideways to up - Expecting a pull-back to 2360/2380 where the next move is decided. I prefer a second leg down, after the pull-back, which then transforms into a bear trend down to 2200. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. current swing trade: Still holding some shorts since 2429. SL is 2352. Chart update: Added new preferred bear channel
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
Gold: Do not slacken! 🥱Gold could not yet gain significantly more upward momentum. Therefore, we still consider it 40% likely that the precious metal will drop directly below the support at $2285, thus confirming an already established high of the turquoise wave alt.B. In this case, our turquoise Target Zone would not be reached anymore. Primarily, however, we stick to our expectation that Gold will rise into our turquoise Zone between $2510 and $2631 to place the top of the regular wave B there.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by MarketIntel
Gold remains bearishThe strong performance of the U.S. ADP employment data in April provided new challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In this context, the reaction of the gold market is particularly worthy of attention. After the data was released, gold fell back 4 US dollars in the short term and then rebounded. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 192,000 in April, far exceeding the expected 175,000, showing the strength of the labor market. Salary growth slowed: Salary growth for those who changed jobs fell from 10.1% to 9.3% year-on-year. Although it is still higher than the level at the beginning of the year, it shows a certain slowing trend. ​ Against the backdrop of strong ADP employment data, the Fed's monetary policy decisions have become more complicated. The gold market will pay close attention to the Fed's next moves, as these decisions will directly affect gold's safe-haven demand and investment value. Investors should remain vigilant during this critical period and carefully evaluate market dynamics. The market is in a weak position, with pressure at 2306 and 2315. Therefore, if you want to short during the day, you must first pay attention to whether 2300 breaks. If 2300 does not break, gold will go short under such extremely weak conditions. Look at the trend point below at 2250. If 2300 breaks and the strength changes, this wave can still rise to 2315 and 2330 highs.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Kevin-analyst9
1
2024-05-22 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Another round of all time highs but bears printed some bigger bear bars on higher volume but in the overall picture it’s still a trading range around the all time highs for stock indexes. To have any meaning, bears would need strong follow through tomorrow and make meaningful lower lows and test the daily 20ema. Commodities actually can have a red day. What a time to be alive. Copper sold off for almost 6% and Gold printed a big bear bar too, exciting. NVIDIA: The stock that saves the market because AI is the reason no asset valuation metric is important anymore. Stock hit 997.9 after hours and my best guess is that most institutions will use this spike as a gift to take more profits. Will see about that in the next 4 weeks. Gold comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now. current market cycle: Small bear trend in bigger trading range 2300-2454 key levels: 2300 - 2450 bull case: Daily 20ema is at 2370, so bulls still closed above it and that means the market is still mostly bullish. Since we printed another ath on Monday, some pull-back was expected. Bulls would like to keep it above 2380 because it’s the most recent support under 2400. They want a big pull-back to make bears question the strength of the selling. Their first target is 2400 and then a breakout of the bear channel. Invalid below 2375. bear case: Bears got consecutive bear bars on the daily chart. They also see the formed channel and they want to keep the pull-back sideways and as neutral as it gets before a second leg down. My preferred target for the pull-back is at least 2400 inside the drawn channel. It could be that my channel is wrong and we see a faster and steeper drop to 2350 but i highly doubt that. Ultimately, bears want 2300 again soon. I watch the 15m and 1h 20ema closely for shorts. My swing position is very green. short term: Sideways to up. Had big down today, now a pull-back is expected. Please watch my chart. Invalid below 2372. medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged current swing trade: Shorted 2429 on Tuesday - target 2375, sl 2390. Took 25% off at 2380. +480 so far. trade of the day: Strong selling with follow through below 2400, given that market could not trade above the 1h 20ema, should have been short since 2414 or once we broke 2400.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds