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GOLD! GOLD! GOLD! An interesting activityFor the third day in a row, there are a number of positions on the 2080 call, which is remarkable given the downward movement of the underlying asset. However, the trading volume that took place yesterday at this strike is excessive and probably the highest for the entire 2023, at least based on our regular observations. The second factor that may signal that the most informed participants are in action is the volatility of the Gold ATM strike. As you can see in the screenshot below, the volatility of the ATM is just below average. According to our observations, it is volatility when insiders and so-called "smart money" show up.
COMEX:GCG2024Long
by ClashChartsTeam
3
Gold: Shining Bright with OpportunitiesGold is once again in the spotlight, and here’s why! Economic Cycles, PMI & Gold The US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator often used to identify turns in the economic cycle. A below 50 PMI print indicates contraction in the US manufacturing cycle, while a print above 50 suggests expansion. Generally speaking, expanding manufacturing cycles spell a boost for industrial materials, like copper, while contractionary periods spell downturns in the economy and a preference for 'flight to safety', boosting gold holdings. An interesting observation from the chart above is the correlation between the Gold/Copper ratio and the inverted US PMI, moving in tandem over the last decade. However, looking at the current scenario, the PMI has turned lower, yet the Gold/Copper ratio has remained relatively muted, suggesting that gold may currently be underpriced. Similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio shows a less pronounced but similar effect. Significant drops in the PMI below the 50 level have historically triggered notable increases in the Gold/Copper ratio. With the PMI currently below 50 for a sustained period, this might be priming the ratio for a potential upward surge. Yields, Fed Expectation & Gold As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold loses its appeal when interest rates rise, leading investors to prefer interest-yielding products. We covered the effect of a Fed rate cut on gold in a previous article here . While the Fed remains steadfast in holding rates, even the act of pausing rate hikes positively impacts gold. This effect is observed via the Gold/US10Y Yields ratio. The previous pause in rate hikes preceded a significant run-up in this ratio. Additionally, this ratio is currently near its resistance level, which it has respected multiple times over the last decade. With the Fed expected to continue holding rates, now could be an opportune time to consider adding gold to your portfolio. Gold Price Action Gold’s current price action also shows a completed cup-and-handle pattern. With an initial attempt to break higher halted, it now trades right above the handle. Additionally, gold could arguably be trading in an ascending triangle pattern, as noted by its price action as well as generally declining volume, potentially signaling a bullish continuation pattern. In summary, given the Fed's stance on holding rates, the correlation between PMI and the Gold/Copper ratio, and the bullish technical indicators in gold's price action, a positive outlook on gold seems reasonable. To express our view, we can buy the CME Gold Futures at the current level of 1962. Using the cup and handle pattern to guide the take profit level, at 2400 and stop at 1890. Each 0.10 point move in gold futures is for 10 USD. The same view can also be expressed with greater precision using the CME Micro Gold contract where the notional is one-tenth of the regular size gold contract. Here, each 0.10 point move is for 1 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
9
Gold: We are Not Messing AroundIf you read last week's post, "Is the Top in on Gold?," you will know I was preparing for a correction, which played out perfectly. Gold futures could work their way lower from here, given the amount of premium pumped into the market from the October 6th lows until the October 27th highs (+ $196.20). The Hezbollah leader already discredited widespread escalation on November 3rd that triggered an exodus of those fortunately enough to capture the previous upward move. A Hawkish Fed From the October 27th highs until this week's lows, we have only seen 1/3 of the rally retraced. Given last week's softer Non-Farm Payroll data and the correction in 10-year Treasury yields (40 bps), I expect the "floor" on Gold prices to be well above the October lows—most likely in the low $1900s, high $1800s. How do we get there? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday the Fed "is not confident it has done enough to bring inflation down." In layman's terms, "We are not messing around," and that "hawkish narrative" drives Gold down there. The CME FedWatch Tool Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a December rate hike surged from 4.8% last week to 14.6% after Powell's comments. Is he "all bark, no bite," let's be serious: economic data is declining, and credit is tightening. Can he raise it one more time? Sure, but what is he accomplishing? The softening data continues into mid-2024, when the Fed should make its first interest rate cut and end 2024 at 4.55%. I expect lower Gold prices in the near term, followed by another "leg" higher into the end of the year and 2024. Taking It to the Charts Gold futures have technically disappointed after breaking the 200 (DMA) at $1983 and continue to work lower. The next support zone is $1950 down to $1936, where a close below $1936 could spark additional selling back down to our "value area" $1910-1885. While we do not see Gold challenging the October lows, much depends on the pace of a ceasefire, Fed interest rate decisions, and investor sentiment. We saw capital inflows into Precious Metals over the past three weeks, but that capital is quick to move to other asset classes, such as the Nasdaq, Bitcoin, or "risk-free" Treasury products. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Phil_Blue_Line
Gold - Fade a The Short Squeeze RallyThe marketing team behind gold and silver are always telling dumb and dead money that they should "hedge" against a "collapsing US Petrodollar" during times of global instability by being long on metals. The trade rarely works out. Gold and silver not only routinely follow the equities markets straight to Hell, but tend to get dumped during the start of new index impulse swings. This rally while the SPX gave up its 5% rally is actually a significant anomaly. But if the propaganda never, ever worked out, the propaganda would stop working and the marketing team would be out of a job. And that more or less sums up a 10% monthly rally on gold that's killed short sellers who wanted to comfortably ride a trend down. You can see on the monthly that this price action is just more ranging, more wick plays, and there's a notable unbalanced gap under $1,800. It's really important to keep a cool head as a goldbug, especially under the condition where the establishment media is reporting that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is long several hundred tonnes worth of gold. The CCP is collapsing and everything that is going on in the world has to do with the various members of the CCP around the world, who are not of the Chinese race, scrambling to bury their skeletons while also trying to ensure they can take control of the country when the regime falls. And because of that, there's no reason to believe that a CCP that is desperately selling US Treasuries (see: Santiago Capital) for USD is going to be allowed to go plussy plus greeny green on its deeply deep goldy gold position. What hangs over the head of everyone on this planet is the Party's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million students and Disciples, a sin committed by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, that has even had the audacity to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting. Keep your distance from and wash your hands from anything related to the CCP, including the western factions that have become a particle of the Party swearing Marxist vows in Shanghai. So, here's the trade. Doesn't matter if gold takes $2,015. It's not the right overall timing for a new rally to $2,200. Instead, either go short, or wait for gold to trade under $1,800 again. There's no reason to believe gold is a new bull market until longs have been ruthlessly violated. There's no reason to believe metals are going to rally as a hedge during an international war or a major equity sell off, or a major equity rally lol.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LordWrymouth
7
The Intricacies of Gold's Current Trading LandscapeOver the long run, the inherent bias towards owning Gold has remained a steady trend, largely driven by its historical store of value and status as a hedge against economic uncertainty. However, the near-term outlook for Gold appears to be facing a series of headwinds, primarily due to recent developments in the financial landscape. In a shift from its previous dovish stance, the Federal Reserve has adopted a more hawkish tone. This change in sentiment was highlighted by the weak 30-year bond auction on 11/9, which led to higher yields. Following the bond auction, the CME FedWatch tool reflected a change in expectations of a pause in December, odds shifted from 9% to 15%. Such developments have created a challenging environment for Gold, dampening its short-term prospects. Despite these challenges, Gold had its best monthly close in October since March, following the Silicon Valley banking crisis. Three drivers to watch in metals: The first significant driver has been the anticipation of an imminent pause in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking cycle, potentially followed by rate cuts within the next 7-9 months. This projection, supported by the CME Group FedWatch tool, has instilled a sense of optimism among investors, leading them to view Gold favorably as a potential beneficiary of this impending monetary policy shift. The second critical driver contributing to Gold's appeal stems from the prevailing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty across the globe. With the outbreak of complex wars in recent years, the historical safe-haven properties of Gold have garnered renewed attention, prompting investors to seek refuge in this precious metal amidst the prevailing global turmoil. Furthermore, the third driver underpinning the case for Gold revolves around the vulnerability of the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Given the interconnected nature of the global financial system, any geopolitical disruptions or loss of confidence in the U.S. economy could potentially trigger a search for alternative assets, with Gold emerging as a viable and widely accepted option for international trade and investment. What's next? While the near-term journey for Gold might encounter some challenges in light of the recent hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and escalating bond yields, the underlying factors that traditionally favor Gold ownership, including the anticipation of future rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and the potential fragility of the U.S. dollar's dominance, continue to lend support to its enduring appeal over the long term. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
I am only going to look at five markets for the foreseeable 11.7.23 :ES Russell Gold Silver Oil. I plan to look at two bar reversals at support and resistance. We will still factor in volatility, expansion and contraction, Support and resistance, Always thinking about the smart money versus the fast money... and that's about it. I will talk about gaps which affect my trading decisions. I never use lagging indicators. I do look for patterns. I use extensions and retracements. I want to know if the market's trending or ranging. I absolutely do use multiple time frames.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Is the bull run in gold prices coming to an end?Is the bull run in gold prices coming to an end? Gold prices are slightly lower today in response to rising U.S. bond yields. However, gold remains an important investment tool for many people seeking stability and protection in the financial market. A crucial factor that will affect the gold market in the near future will be the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. If we notice an increase in yields, this could lead to the price of gold falling below $1,974, a key support level to watch. There is a clear inverse relationship between this and the U.S. 10-year bond yield. Data last Friday revealed that U.S. job growth declined during October and annual wage growth was the lowest in two and a half years, suggesting a weakening labor market situation. After the release of the employment report, there is an expectation that the Fed may have ended its policy of raising rates, which led to a drop in the dollar to a six-week low. There is increasingly good news for gold investors as the SPDR® Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), the world's largest gold-traded fund, announced a 0.20 percent increase in its holdings last Friday to 863.24 tons. Recently, gold has been under pressure due to rising real yields on U.S. Treasuries. However, the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attacks caused the metal to overshoot, reversing this trend. The reason gold prices rise at the start of a war is because there is an expected impact on real yields. Although higher oil prices and rising military spending should theoretically lower real bond yields, in reality, there have been rises because of concern about possible increases by the Fed. Gold-Monthly ChartGold-Monthly Chart There are several options for investing in gold. The first option is physical gold, which includes gold coins, bars, and jewelry. Another avenue is gold futures, which involves a commitment to buy gold at a later date. Alternatively, investors and traders can opt for gold-related stocks, such as gold-focused ETFs like the renowned SPDR Gold Trust (P:GLD) or stocks of gold mining companies. From a technical perspective, the situation on gold is neutral with an uncertain phase. The primary trend remains upward and this is also confirmed by the close above the slow-moving average. The stochastic (42.3) is also in the lower part of its range, without yet providing any indication as to whether we are at the beginning of a bullish phase or whether short-term congestion will continue. As those who follow me can attest, I am not a big fan of gold. I do not expect U.S. 10-year bond yields or the value of the dollar to decline significantly in the last quarter of the year. This means that barring a global conflict, the run-up in gold prices has come to an end because there is an inverse correlation between gold and bonds and the dollar. I expect gold prices to remain stable in the coming months, staying within the range of 1800 to 2000.
COMEX:GC1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
GOLD potential support detectedThe naked put on Gold 1950 with a break-even point around 1930 is becoming increasingly active. For those unfamiliar with the options market: naked options are used by experienced options traders to create a synthetic breakeven position by adding a long futures. As a result, the owner of such a portfolio makes risk-free profits when the underlying asset goes up, and loses nothing when it goes down. ***We do the best research as we can to find new opportunities in the massive amount of information every day to help you make data-driven trading decision. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all!***
COMEX:GCZ2023
by ClashChartsTeam
Why Is Gold Outpacing the Stock Market?Looking back to 1928, when the time series for the S&P 500 began, U.S. equities have had an average annual price return of 5.9%. But gold isn’t far behind with an average yearly gain of 4.9%. It can be instructive to reprice equities in gold terms by dividing the S&P 500 index by the dollar price of gold. The S&P 500 to gold ratio has been through broad swings over the past century, with stocks falling by 86% in gold terms between 1929 and 1942; rising by 1165% versus gold from 1942 to 1967; falling by 95% versus gold from 1967 to 1980; soaring 4000% versus gold between 1980 and 2000; and then falling by 89% between 2000 and 2011. More recently, the S&P 500 rose by 350% versus gold between 2011 and 2021 but has since dropped back by around 15%. Gold tends to outperform stocks during periods of fiscal and monetary expansion, price instability, and periods of geopolitical conflict and uncertainty. As such, one might wonder if gold might be the outperformer for the remainder of the 2020s. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!
by CME_Group
15
Is the Top in on Gold?After punching through $2000/oz for the first time since July, Gold and Silver have found themselves in a peculiar position, suddenly competing with the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. Perhaps the $175/oz rally over the past three weeks left investors "itching" to find the next "quick buck." While Bitcoin has proven a viable asset class, retail investors and Central Banks will quickly purchase any correction in precious metals. Next Weeks Federal Reserve Meeting The Fed meets next week and is near completing its fastest interest rate hike cycle in American history. Many call this wreckless given the unprecedented Government Debt, leaving almost no foreseeable way out. Once the Federal Reserve pauses its interest rate hike cycle, they have historically cut rates within 7-9 months. According to the CME Group Fed Watch Tool, there is better than a 50% probability the Fed will cut rates by at least 25bps by July 2024, and should have bullish implications for precious metals. In addition, Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain on everyone's radar, with two very complex wars breaking out over the past two years. The risks of safely traveling abroad seem higher than ever before, and with the Global divide continuing to expand, one must ask themselves, are we on the verge of WWIII? The Technicals Gold futures have broken above the psychological $2000/oz and have opened the door for higher prices. Traders will note that several levels remain on the charts defined as "critical support," with the first being the 200 DMA at $1983, the psychological $1950, and finally, the 50 DMA at $1929. Gold will need a close above $2000 and a stronger session to extend the rally to $2050. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
''The Spot Price Of Gold is $2,002.15''Gold maintains its value. When the stock market crashes gold goes up in price. Once you understand how to buy gold you will become a trading expert. Gold is considered as international money. In order to learn more about the ''rocket booster'' strategy rocket boost this content. Gold is used in manufacturing of gold coins. Gold is a safe heaven asset. You can know the right time to buy Gold using the ''rocket booster strategy'' According to the world gold council the spot price of gold is $2,002.15 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice do your own research before you trade, hence do not buy or sell anything i recommend. Rocket boost this content to learn more.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi