Waiting for GOLD to Act right!Looking for a bullish play but waiting for price to get the shakes out. It is stuck inside of rotational value on a much larger scale. Need to see it break outside of that Value.
GD1! trade ideas
No Demand and Wyckoff VSA Upthrust in Downtrend ExplainedIn this short educational video, Author and Fund Manager, Gavin Holmes, explains the key Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis trade set ups called "No Demand After Selling" and "Upthrust after selling confirmed" using Trade To Win for TradingView Pro.
The example is the NQ Nasdaq futures but this set up works in all markets and multiple timeframes.
Amid Price Uncertainty, Gold Straddle Paves the PathYellow metal prices have soared. It has been setting several new all-time highs with futures trading just shy of the USD 3,000/oz level. However, gold has struggled to breach past the crucial mark despite multiple attempts.
Some data points suggest that the rally in gold might be losing steam even though fundamental demand drivers remain intact.
A nuanced position is required at times like this. Options are tailored to help portfolio managers to position shrewdly in such dicey situations.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER
The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) remains above one hundred since 2022 which reflects sustained global uncertainty driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend has persisted for years, with recent tariff-related uncertainty adding fuel to this fire.
Data Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty
Gold, as a safe haven asset, benefits from these conditions. However, the recent bond selloff has driven Treasury rates higher which could potentially reduce demand for gold as it is a non-yielding asset.
CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOADING ON RISING GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTIES
Central banks are resuming gold purchases, with January showing an uptick, albeit below the 2024 average. The accelerating pace could signal further momentum, particularly amid rising global trade uncertainty.
Data Source: WGC
China resumed gold buying in November 2024 following a six-month hiatus. China was one of the largest buyers in 2023 and a repeat of that in 2025 will see a sharp demand spike.
LARGE GOLD FLOWS INTO THE US
The large financial institutions which serve as counterparties in the futures market have been importing significant quantities of physical gold to the US. The recent flows have surpassed levels seen during COVID pandemic.
Physical imports have been driven by fears of a tariff on gold imports. However, the pace of imports has slowed down and is starting to plateau.
Looking back at 2020, when similar conditions arose, prices remained stagnant after the sharp rally driven by physical gold imports. The risk of a repeating pattern is even more potent given the strong resistance at the USD 3,000/oz level. A strong driver may be required to allow prices to cross this threshold.
Chart Source: WGC
Another factor contributing to the temporary physical supply shock is the refining process required before gold reaches the U.S.
The physical gold reserves held in London for Good Delivery are the 400-oz bars, which must be refined into 1-kilo bars for CME delivery. This process requires an intermediate stop in Switzerland, adding delays that exacerbate supply constraints.
However, as the additional refined metals reach the U.S. in the coming weeks, supply is expected to normalize, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.
Chart Source: WGC
Other supply stress indicators are easing. Gold leasing rates, which reflect the cost of borrowing for physical use, recently surged above 5%, with near-term borrowing costs rising sharply. Leasing rates have returned to normal, albeit slightly elevated.
TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM ENCOUNTERING RESISTANCE
The summary below suggests a bullish stance in gold but prices are encountering resistance. Over the past month, prices have faced strong resistance at the USD 3,000 level despite a strongly bullish sentiment.
The resistance formed after a stunning rally which pushed gold into overbought territory, a correction at this stage is expected.
Should momentum fade, gold prices may continue to consolidate between present levels and the 100-day moving average.
Gold futures prices formed a death-cross on 5th March 2025 which may fuel a near term price correction.
GOLD VOLATILITY IS NOT LOW BUT CAN RISE HIGHER IF CONDITIONS TURNS TENSE
Gold Volatility as measured by CME’s Gold CVol printed a high of 50.13 on 18th March 2020 and a low of 8.18 on 3rd May 2019.
Presently hovering at 16.35, the implied volatility in gold is not too low but below average with the potential to spike higher should geopolitical or other shocks rock the market.
Source: CME CVol
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Fundamentals remain intact and could intensify if tariff and/or geopolitical tensions peak. That said, the phenomenal gold rally is starting to lose shine as it encounters strong resistance with death cross forming on 5th March 2025.
Supply shocks that fueled the rally in Feb are now fading.
Equity risks are elevated with expensive S&P 500 P/E multiples. Geopolitical and trade risk remain tense. These conditions support a further bullish position in gold.
With prices expected to swing either way, portfolio managers are best positioned to have a convex position that gains from sharp moves in either direction.
To express this ambivalent view on the path ahead for gold prices, portfolio managers can utilize CME Micro Gold Options to establish a long straddle (combination of long put & long call) that gains from (a) deep pull back in prices (puts gain in value), or (b) sharp rally (calls deliver the gains), and (c) implied volatility expansion (where both puts & calls gain in value).
Conversely, this trade will incur losses if prices remain flat and if volatility shrinks.
The pay-off of the hypothetical long straddle set up using CME Micro Gold Options June 2025 contract expiring on 27th May 2025 is illustrated below.
The long call at a strike of 2,945 will cost USD 84.9 per lot and the long put at the same strike will cost USD 86.9 per lot adding up to USD 171.80 per lot in total premiums. The long straddle will generate positive returns at expiry if the underlying futures prices are (a) above the upper break even point of USD 3,116.80/oz, or (b) below the lower break even point of USD 2,732.20/oz.
Source: QuikStrike Strategy Simulator
If the underlying futures prices stay within the break-even points, this straddle is exposed to a maximum loss of USD 171.80/lot representing the total premium. Happy Investing.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Gold 05-08 long, pullback continue to longGold, last Friday's non-farm payrolls did not give a clear direction, and continued to fluctuate within a large range. The key pressure above remained at the 30 line, while the support below continued to be accompanied by constant shocks, and the lows continued to rise. However, the range has not been broken, and the daily moving average system is also concentrated here. Near the position, the lower mid-rail position and the short-term moving average position have also continued to move upward, providing effective support to the bulls. In the short term, we will also maintain above this position and continue to wait for long positions. With the long-term sideways trading in the range, we currently need more patience to wait for the later breakthrough and continue to follow up, and the hour The line is also expected to form an upward triangle consolidation interval. Once it continues to break through in the later period, the amplitude can be imagined. Moreover, the daily line also closed in the form of a cross star with a negative line on Friday, and the upper and lower top and bottom positions of this position are also the key support and pressure points in the later period. Therefore, we will first maintain a long position near the lower support of 2900 and wait, with the target around 20-30. If it breaks upward, it can still look up to around 50. If it retreats below 2900 for a long time, this position is basically equivalent to the 5-day line position of the weekly line. Once it breaks down, we need to consider adjusting our thinking.
3.10 Gold is still bearish todayAlthough the non-agricultural data on Friday was significantly bullish for gold, the daily pressure level has not been broken for three consecutive days. Today's idea is still to short when the daily pressure level ranges from 2919.50 to 2930, or to short directly at 2928.50.
Support and pressure levels of gold in various cycles:
Gold weekly support level 2715.00 area, gold daily pressure level 2919 to 2930 range, gold 4-hour support level 2904.00 area
Today's suggestion: short gold in the 2910.50 area, stop loss 2920, take profit 2890
Or short the 2920 range if the small cycle falls below the support level and rebounds to the pressure level
GC - Golden Rocketship To The U-MLHWe got on the Rocket-Ship earlier and took profit.
If you're still in with a position, or if you can manage to get in with a decent Risk/Reward, you may want to aim for the U-MLH.
The Stars look good and profits are twinkling §8-)
If the 1/4 line is cracked, we will see a follow-through.
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Market Forecast: Mar 10-14 In this video, we will analyze the GOLD Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
Gold has consolidated for the last half of the previous week. Trading in a ranging market is not recommended! But waiting until there is an obvious sweep of the high or low liquidity pools can give us an indication which side the market will break the consolidation. Patience and a watchful eye will allow us to take advantage of the momentous opportunity.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.3-7.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 17th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). As expected, the pivot forecast on March 3 reversed gold upward from the extreme forecast level of October 28 (2850 on current futures). A new base cycle cannot be ruled out, though technical confirmation is lacking. The usual cycle length for gold is closer to 20 weeks, so we remain in the final phase, and anything is possible—traders must react accordingly.
👉 Pivot forecast trade on February 24 yielded a $3K–$5K per contract move into retrograde Venus on March 3—congrats to those who entered, a solid trade.
A long position was opened at the March 3 extreme forecast, which is now at breakeven.
⚠️ Next extreme forecast: March 17—coinciding with the start of retrograde Mercury.
CLOSED MARKET Review on Upcoming Week for Gold!Taking the time to empty out my thoughts as we get ready for another week. NFP last week held up a lot of price action that could of happened. now that we are past it we should get some significant moves. just have to wait for the killzones.
Gold Futures (COMEX) - 1H Chart Technical Analysis1. Price Action & Trend Analysis
The current price is $2,917.7, showing a slight decline of -0.02%.
The chart reflects a sideways consolidation phase, as seen within the highlighted blue rectangular range.
A support zone is forming around $2,900 - $2,910, while resistance appears near $2,930 - $2,940.
There are two possible price projections:
Bullish Scenario (Red Projection): If price sustains above the Point of Control (POC: $2,927.8), it could move upwards toward $2,950 - $2,980.
Bearish Scenario (Blue Projection): If price fails to hold $2,910, further downside toward $2,870 - $2,850 is likely.
2. Volume Profile & Point of Control (POC)
POC: $2,927.8 is the area with the highest traded volume, acting as a key resistance level.
Volume Analysis:
Last 60 bars show up volume (295.541K) < down volume (243.149K), suggesting bearish dominance with 15.47% more selling pressure.
If price remains below POC, a bearish breakdown is possible.
3. Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: $2,927 - $2,930 (POC level)
Next Resistance: $2,950 - $2,980 (Projected upside)
Immediate Support: $2,910 - $2,900 (Lower range)
Key Support Zone: $2,870 - $2,850 (Bearish target if breakdown occurs)
4. Trend Channels & Market Structure
Two projected channels are present:
Bullish Channel (Red) suggests an upward breakout could lead to $2,950 - $2,980.
Bearish Channel (Blue) shows a breakdown could target $2,870 - $2,850.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions
Bullish Bias:
A breakout above $2,930 - $2,940 could push price toward $2,950 - $2,980.
Buy if price sustains above POC ($2,927.8) with a stop-loss below $2,910.
Bearish Bias:
A breakdown below $2,910 could trigger a drop to $2,870 - $2,850.
Sell if price fails at $2,927.8 and breaks below $2,910, with a stop-loss above $2,930.
Conclusion
POC ($2,927.8) is the key level to watch for direction.
If price stays below POC, expect further bearish movement.
A breakout above $2,930 could trigger bullish continuation.
The volume analysis favors bears slightly, but confirmation is needed.
Gold Futures (COMEX) - 1H Trade Setup & Risk Management
Since the market is in consolidation near the Point of Control (POC: $2,927.8), we will set up both bullish and bearish trade scenarios based on price action.
📈 Bullish Trade Setup (Breakout Above $2,930 - $2,940)
Entry:
Buy above $2,932 - $2,935 (Confirmation of breakout & retest).
Wait for a strong candle close above resistance ($2,930) with increasing volume.
Target Levels:
Target 1: $2,950
Target 2: $2,970
Target 3: $2,980
Stop-Loss:
Place SL below $2,910 (Strong support level).
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Target 1: ~1:2
Target 2: ~1:3
Target 3: ~1:4
📉 Bearish Trade Setup (Breakdown Below $2,910)
Entry:
Sell below $2,907 - $2,905 after a clear breakdown with strong volume.
Ideally, wait for a retest of $2,910 as resistance before shorting.
Target Levels:
Target 1: $2,880
Target 2: $2,870
Target 3: $2,850
Stop-Loss:
Place SL above $2,930 (Key resistance level & POC).
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Target 1: ~1:2
Target 2: ~1:3
Target 3: ~1:4
🔹 Risk Management Tips
✅ Trade only after confirmation (Breakout or breakdown with volume).
✅ Risk per trade: Keep it 1-2% of your capital.
✅ Avoid trading inside the range ($2,910 - $2,930) unless there's a strong move.
✅ Use trailing stop-loss to secure profits once price moves in favor.
🔥 Final Thoughts
If price holds above POC ($2,927.8) → Expect bullish move toward $2,950 - $2,980.
If price rejects POC & breaks $2,910, expect bearish drop to $2,870 - $2,850.
Volume favors bears slightly, but confirmation is key before taking trades.
Bullish Movement in hidingThe Gold chart has a lot of info in display.If you go with the most current structure, you will see an (M) formation first,then a Bullish Flag and when you zoom out you notice a bigger structure of an Inverse Head and Shoulders(IHnS).
So basically, there should be a short term sell to complete 90% of the M before moving upwards. This would mean placing a reminder at 2895.3 for the reversal of the M.
As for the Bullish Flag it should be at 2904.0 but this can lead to a stop loss hunt if your SL
isnt big enough to anticipate a wick all the way to 2892.0 or slitely further.
Finally, the as for the Inverse Head and Shoulders(IHnS), the best entry would be at 2895.3
MGC4hr Bullish
30m Bullish
I will be looking for longs on MGC, really liking the price action rn. We also have new at 12:30pm EST so try not to be in a trade during those hours! See you tomorrow!
MGCI am liking Gold for longs this Thursday.
4hr is bullish
30m is pushing bullish
5m waiting
1m waiting
Setting the Stage to Break the ManipulationSilver and gold have held up well during the recent sell off and now with the dropping dollar, we may undergo some serious moves until the DXY cycle low
Remaining Bullish on Goldyesterday was the Non Farm Payroll news. Price stalled till it was time for news then pulled back to fill in a H4 Gap. Now I'm looking for price to continue bullish. There is not Area that they did not fill in so I'm thinking they might just come out the gate running soon as we are inside of the killzone. waiting for the killzone is the key though.
MGCLooking at Gold on the 30m time frame we are breaking into new highs and inside this 30m range. I am bullish on Gold and want to see price move higher during London and NY session and provide opportunities inside the lower time frames like 5m and then 1m.
I want to see the 30m highe at 2939.8 get broken tomorrow NY session.
Gold Confirms its Bullish for the week!The bullish play that I was looking for ended up playing out. Now I'm looking for it to continue but sitting on hands till it gives up a solid entry point. Waiting for the killzone is key.
GOLD AssertationNot 100% confident in this trade Based on whats been happening in the market Missing about two confluence to be More Confident But Will See How This Works Out and Learn From my Mistake Even if i Am Right Originally my confidence in this wasnt there So i will dissect That Reason To better Pin Point High Confluence Trades
Gold Futures - Potential Springtime ReversalGold futures have been on a rally, but recent price action suggests a potential shift. Could we be witnessing a Wyckoff distribution forming?
Understanding Wyckoff Distribution
The Wyckoff distribution pattern occurs when large institutions begin selling off their positions to retail traders before a downtrend begins. This phase is often characterized by sideways price movement, false breakouts, and key "Signs of Weakness" (SOW) that hint at an impending sell-off.
A Recent Sign of Weakness in Gold Futures
A possible sign of weakness in gold futures was observed recently when prices gave a false break out at what retail traders would label "key levels".
Historical Seasonal Trends: Spring Reversals
Looking at historical data, Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI.com) has tracked seasonal gold price patterns for over 40 years. Their findings indicate that gold often experiences price reversals during the spring months. This aligns with the idea that we could be heading into a seasonally weak period, increasing the likelihood of a distribution phase playing out.
What Traders Should Watch For
As Gold rallies back towards a new all time high we should be aware that it may be just a false break to form the final phases of a distribution schematic. This would form an upthrust, and upthrust after distribution, followed by a sharp retracement back into the range and ultimately leading to a sell off and market reversal.
Final Thoughts
While nothing is certain, the combination of the financial institutions footprint and historical seasonal data suggests gold traders should proceed with caution. Whether you’re trading futures or investing in physical gold, staying aware of these patterns can help you make informed decisions.
Do you think a Wyckoff distribution is playing out in gold? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Gold in Strong Uptrend, but Is a Correction Looming?Gold remains well-positioned in a strong bullish trend, although prices have struggled to break above the rising trendline of the ascending channel. Considering that this move could represent the fifth wave of a larger-degree Elliott Wave structure, I’m on high alert for a potential correction. A pullback could bring prices back toward the $2,600 area. However, as of now, there are no clear signs of weakness, and the trend remains decisively bullish. 📈🔥
LETS GOOOO!!! NEW WEEK ON GOLD!!!Looking for the moves an I think we will come out the gate moving bullish all week. Practicing patience and waiting for the killzone before getting active on anything. Expecting some good moves starting tonight.
GOLD FUTURES MADE TREND LINE BREAKOUTgold if comes above 85000 again can make strong bullish trend
also can make new all time high
