#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls got a clean breakout but they need follow through on Monday/Tuesday. The current channel fit’s nicely but we only know market is respecting it when we see a pullback. If this breakout is strong, bulls would not let the market fall below 2600 again. A weaker trend would pull back to the daily ema around 2600 before continuing. As long as we hold above the daily ema there is a very good chance we will see 2700 next. Small chance this trend is accelerating and breaking above the drawn channel and we would see 3 strong legs up which could lead to 2800.
Quote from last week:
comment: Finally the breakout above and the 2600 print. All bullish targets are now met for me so no interest in buying this high. I think the odds that bulls break above the wedge and start a new bull rally are very low and much more likely is a trap over the next 1-5 days and then a reversal down to at least 2540. That’s all I have to write about this right now.
comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2570 - 2700
bull case : Bulls had the fastest and most shallow two legged pullback there is on Tuesday/Wednesday and continued with max bullishness for 2650. By now every bear has given up and we will truly find out how high this can go over the next months. As of now my preferred pattern is the bull channel and since we are at the highs, bulls would need another strong bar like Friday to break above it. Can they get it? Absolutely. Am I betting on it? No.
Invalidation is below 2570.
bear case: No idea where and how strong they come around. Will most likely be more bulls taking profits rather than strong selling. Lower bull trend line is 50 points lower and I doubt we hit it on Monday. Buying 2640 is a bad trade and bears know it but I rather wait and see where we go. On the 1h tf we have not traded below it since Thursday’s Globex session. Currently very hard for bears to make money so make your life easier and look for longs.
Invalidation is above 2660.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. I need to see bear strength before selling this. No interest in longs above 2600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2610 and now we are at 2646. Meh outlook because bulls were much stronger and broke above again but I also advised against shorts until bears come around. They did not.
short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback.
medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Added bull wedge.
