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NG1! trade ideas

Natural Gas: Over storage due to recency bias?So far we’ve covered Natural Gas twice, once in October 2022 , followed by another in May 2023 . As highlighted in both pieces we are generally longer-term bullish on natural gas but we do see some opportunities for a short-term tactical position now. As winter approaches, the harrowing memories of natural gas price movements during the previous winter seasons keep us vigilant. Some key points we find interesting now include the natural gas storage levels in the EU and US, unseasonal weather, price seasonality, and natural gas price action. Natural gas storage Natural Gas storage typically follows two clear seasonal trends: the winter withdrawal season and the summer injection season, with the summer months being April to October and winter from November to March. The chart below shows the storage level across time in the US. Current US Storage levels are close to the previous high in 2020. While in the EU, current gas storage levels are the highest they've been over the last five years. These high storage levels come off the back of a massive rally in natural gas prices in the 2021-2022 period. Which leads us to question, could this be attributed to recency bias? Have markets become over-prepared, with storage levels so high? Unseasonal weather One rationale for high storage levels is preparation for a harsh winter. The build-up of gas storage in the EU, particularly, was spurred by a warmer-than-expected start to the winter, resulting in less gas usage for heating. Forecasts also predict the 2023 winter in the EU & US to be warmer than average. A recent Bloomberg article on Natural Gas states: “Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades.” The EIA adds: “We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic (Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors.” High storage levels, coupled with lower-than-expected demand due to warm weather, could signal further weakness for Natural Gas… Price Seasonality Adding to this is the general price seasonality of Natural Gas. Over the past six years, the August to end-of-October period generally sees a gradual rise, followed by a decline from December to January. With this year’s price behavior aligning with past trends, we could very likely see a downturn in prices heading towards the end of the year and into January. Price Action On a longer-term time frame, the 3.610 level has repeatedly served as both support and resistance. On a shorter timeframe, natural gas has been trading in a defined broadening formation, likely indicating increased price volatility. To express our short-term bearish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures at the current level of 3.089, setting the stop at the resistance above at 3.26 and take profit of 2.62. Each 0.001 point move in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is for 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by inspirante
2
Natural Gas Future Prediction - 17.11.2023 - Trading Marcos LeveNatural Gas MCX Future - November Intraday Trend Analysis for 17.11.2023 Buy at: 265.05 with Target 1 - 265.75 and Target 2 - 272.7 Add one lot: 262.9 Sell at 260.75 with Target 1 - 243.25 and Target 2 - 236.3 Stoploss: Buy Position SL: 260 Sale Position SL: 266 This Natural Gas MCX Future analysis is for educational purposes and one should attempt a paper trade on the above mentioned levels for an Intraday Range of 18.2 Points on 17.11.2023 Comment here to let me know your experience.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by NumroTrader
2
Can Bulls Will take Control of $MCX:NATURALGAS1!Dear Followers, I wanted to keep you informed about the latest developments in the natural gas market. Recent trends indicate a potential Uptrend in natural gas prices. This presents a potential opportunity for a Long position. Key Points: 🔹 Natural gas prices have shown a consistent downward movement over the past weeks. 🔹 Supply levels have been relatively stable, while demand has experienced some fluctuations. 🔹 Experts suggest a short-term Bullish outlook for natural gas. Action Plan: Considering the above factors, it might be prudent to consider a Long position in the natural gas November MCX:NATURALGAS1! Contracts. Natural gas will try to face 1st Support Near 260-262 and If its break then Probably We Can See 243-245 level and if its break then it will test 230-233 level. Buy Near 258-260 Stop Loss 250 Target 275,280,288 Investment Required - 70000 Maximum Loss – 12500 Profit Upto 36000 Risk Management: As with any investment decision, there are inherent risks. Natural gas prices can be volatile, and sudden market shifts can impact your investment. Ensure you have a risk management plan in place. Please note that market conditions can change rapidly. We recommend staying updated with real-time market data and consulting with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Feel free to reach out to us if you have any questions or need further assistance. Best regards, Ajay Metha
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by PrachiMetha
TRADE SETUP_25% UP MOVE IN NATURAL GASThe Natural gas is seen in an Elliot wave structure since Jun.2023 bottom. The current pullback shall be considered as a wave IV pullback(until the wave I high of 3.015 does not get violated). From current levels though what should be expected should be a 25% rally (wave V) towards the 4$ mark. Also note that the wave markings have been done on an hourly chart but the daily chart is being posted here for the sake of better picture quality. In case anyone interested in having a look at all the internal markings on hourly, they could let me know. Note*- Futures trading involves leverage and carry significant risks. Please trade with caution and do your own analysis before taking up any financial position.
RUS:NG1!Long
by neeraj_2_sharma
2
NATURAL GAS: Rebound expected near the 1D MA50.Natural Gas is on a six day bearish streak, turning neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.415, MACD = 0.105, ADX = 27.914). The pattern since April is a Bullish Megaphone and every pullback like this, has been a buy opportunity. The last one reversed just before it hit the 1D MA50, and as the 1D RSI is also near the S1 level, we turn bullish, targeting the R1 level (TP = 3.645). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by InvestingScope
2