RTS alternativeBased on USDRUB alternative posted earlier. Wave 2 retraced too high far. Now I am less confident in the count.
RI1! trade ideas
RTS UpdateThis is potentially a good moment for RTS shorts. Or at least to liquidate long posiitons in stocks.
RTS UpdateWave 2 (circle) extended and made me update the count. Shorts are aching and invalidation level is near. Nevertheless, I hold short and long USDRUB as there is a similar picture.
RTS UpdateI am getting increasingly worried about RTS. The only way to label the wave down is expanding diagonal which is not always good to base your count on as it is statistically rare. On a higher level there is another expanding diagonal. On another hand may be these are fractals - the sign that the count is correct.
An alternative is in red and I do not like it. One reason is that the breakout from the previous triangle b was shallow. The other reason is what I see on the minute time frames (to be posted next). Here I must be cautious as low level timeframes are often illusive.
RTS UpdateA minor intraday update to RTS. A bump is expected to finish off wave 2 and restest the trendline formed by the triangle before the downtrend resumes.
RTS UpdateMy previous count was invalidated. Here I make a case for expanding leading diagonal. Wave 4 is just by a hairthin longer than wave 2 but otherwise the rules are intact.
RTS UpdateThe Russian market took a dive at the open and recovered. On daily chart there is a nice green pinbar which may be the sing that the bull market is starting. More proportionate looking alternative however is that it was just the first wave out of five and the market will keep sliding for one more week.
RTS UpdateReiterating a longer-term picture for RTS. After speking to colleagues in the office today I decided to stress that the Russian stock market is giving a glimpse of hope that we will have good news for all of the world by the end of the year. But first some shit will happen. Hopefully, just a technical decline to finish off the broader market revaluation.
RTS UpdateRTS Russian Index in USD might is singalling a sharp drop is ahead to finish wave 2 before long ascend. Hopefully this happens on the back fo US indexes expected drop and not due to geopolitics.
Longer term chart RTS A fuller view. I am very close to give up on the bearish case. Perhaps this is how it should feel at the tip of wave 2 ))).
RTS educational case All right, our contest continues. The price did break up to the upside from the triangle and Andrey's bullish case (the brick one) seems confirmed. I am carrying the loss on the trade and continue seeking out bearish interpretations (white or grey labels). And you know what? It is almost always possible to twist a chart in both ways.
What I did change is that I have simplifeid the count quite a bit and am now looking at even more bearish scenario (grey labels) that says that big move can come within the next 48 hours with wave (3) of c (circle).
To be clear. The market looks bullish, the triangle looks very bullish, oil is going up like crazy (I am long oil and long offshore driller RIG). The broader market (US) is also bullish. If no big geopolitical events the Russian market should go up as well. However, I smell bear in a bush and I cannot really explain why. Maybe because the previous advance does not look like a motive wave to me.
RTS Update (educational one)All right, the educational case is nearing the end. I made a bet that despite the market looks conventionally bullish (consolidating in a triangle on a way up), it is actually bearish.
I have lost some degree of confidence (as the market indeed looks bullish). However the area highlighted by the rectnagle makes me seek out bearish confrimations.
You can see that the current traingle can be twisted either way. That is why understanding previous structures and the bigger picture is so important. 🤞 let's see how this one resolves.
RTS - an educational chartIt is interesting how the same Elliott Wave technique can result in diametrically opposite views. I almost never watch anybody else's charts. I find it distracting and almost ... useless. With the exception of t.me by Andrey Tsvetkov. It happened that I kept it among my Telegram news channels as I like how steady this guy is. He records videos every week sharing his views with detailed explanations.
Despite my respect for his knowledge and for his efforts I almost never agree with the guy. And today I felt that I want to start capturing differences in view and test whose EW technique wins. If I am wrong when the guy is right - I will use it to correct my biases. If I am right most of the time - I will increase my confidence for future trades.
Probably I could backtest my and his ideas to get an instant result - but it just takes too much time.
So, let's see the first example.
Denis technique - grey labels.
I have been bearish on the Russian Market and on the ruble. Last week the market traced a couple of impulse waves down that I now label as ABC in W and then ended the week with a thrust up grilling my shorts. Today I sit in front of the screen and I still refuse to give up the bearish case. When I look at Moving Averages I feel with the back of my skull that the market is bearish and most probably is forming complex nested waves that ultimately will take shape of an ending diagonal.
Andrey Technique - orange labels.
Andrey's projection (orange) has been that this is one big impulse wave in the making. I do not like the way he labelled wave 1 - a leading diagonal but technically looks acceptable. I do not like wave 3 - it does not look right. But certainly what is happening now resembles a triangle as wave 4 in the making.
RTS Sell Short-term count within the broader bearish scenario. Short-term counts can be elusive though.
RTX Long : Double Bottom !After a downtrend, we have a double bottom pattern which is a good reversal signal !
Wait for average breakout as entry confirmation !
Best of Luck !
HUGE potential on RTS index (188888 on 8.8.18)? I like to trade H&S formations because there is usually a good base for managing a trade. As long as price stays above H&S neckline (>107777) you can long with no fear, no doubts, no panic. Remember that RTSi is a high-risk asset because rush moves sometimes happen, so RM is absolutely mandatory here. There are no simple trades.
MOEX:RIH2022To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die, to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to, 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes calamity of so long life;
RTS UpdateA radical interpretation of what is going on in the Russian market. I expect volatility to rise again. The chart also correlates with my thinking on the US and Gold markets.
Idex Russia RTS / MICEX in USD Target priceTo 2022 target price by chart pattern, usind next futures for got this movement, look also to USD/RUB for below 70$ target price
