Emerging markets euro correlationEUR will probably go up... Judging by past data russian emerging market is correlated with euro. Russian market is likely to reprice higher than 2008 in terms of usd, so eur will follow this trend.
RTSI trade ideas
Bear engulfing opens downtrendThe bear engulfing candle pattern, appeared after false breakthrought of resistance level, gives strong and confident signal for bear market begining.
RTS is ready to go downwave 5 of iii has topped. see today spike being wave b of A of flat correction in wave iv. expect a 10-15% correction into early July.
RTS UpdateProvided that my count in the USDRUB is correct, this is what can happen to RTS very soon.
The second option, more preferable.This option is more preferable because the fall converges with my expectations about the EUR/RUB, all the waves are poorly formed driving waves, the last moving wave in particular. Accordingly, we need to think about the composition of this index.
Consists of:
1) GAZP - 15.00%(Most likely there will be a correction)
2) SBER -13.84%(Most likely there will be a correction)
3) LKOH - 13.43%(Most likely there will be a correction)
4) GMKN - 6.26%(Most likely there will be a correction)
5) YNDX - 5.31%(Most likely there will be a correction)
6) NVTK - 5.31%(Most likely there will be a correction)
7) TATN - 4.50%(There may be a lateral correction)
8) ROSN - 4.41%(Most likely there will be a correction)
Continuation "RTS index"Consist of:
1) GAZP - 15,00%
2) SBER -13,84%
3) LKOH-13,43%
4) GMKN - 6,26%
5) YNDX - 5,31%
6) NVTK - 5,31%
7) TATN - 4,50%
8) ROSN - 4,41%
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Traditional|RTSI|LongLong RTSI
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
The author recommends the use of anchoring fixed the blue zone, this variation is less risky.
If there is increased volatility in the market and the price is held for more than 2-3 minutes behind the activation zone after the breakdown, then the activation of the idea occurs at the prices behind the activation zone.
The idea is to work out the resistance level .
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
+ Maybe right now we will go even lower, then it's okay, the idea is not activated and simply canceled.
+ ! - zone highlighted by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, in this area there is a possible reversal for a correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zones - take zones.
The red zone - stop zone.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Orange arrow - the direction of take.
Black arrow - neutral scenario without activating the trade.
The red arrow - the direction of the stop.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
It's this time of the year againIt's this time of the year again, and once again RTS is going down while SPX sets a new high. Then all indices are supposed to crash after payrolls and Chinese NY. All looks just like the last year, but the problem is that markets never repeat themselves: whatever looks "just like the last time" will eventually turn very dissimilar.
This means that the crash will either happen much faster than LY - China starts selling Treasuries after holidays and all crashes in 2 weeks, or will happen much slower (taking the entire Feb and Spring), or won't happen at all for some reason.
Anyways, all instruments are ready for a big drop, the EUR is reversing, the EUR crosses move in a very correlated way with Treasuries as I had expected, and VIX is ready for a big spike after after payrolls.
RTSI Long Term View UpdateYah, I know the triangle is far from being perfect. But I start to think it is just the way the modern markets are. Ending diagonal labelled (5) at the top was also ugly.
Index RTSThe important level 1290 has been both support and resistance at various times. During the week, I expect the price to change in the area of this level with the possibility of going down to 1233 and even to 1190. For upward growth, volumes are needed, which it doesn't have yet.
RTSI and RI1! update the index shows a nice triangle while RI1! (futures) spiked at the open (good that I did not have stops) and ruined my smaller timeframe count.
