#TRNFP - Strategic company.Good day, dear investors.
We continue to look positively at assets and enterprises located in the Russian Federation, especially those with the characteristic of "natural monopoly".
Transneft is the world's largest oil pipeline company, the owner of the oil transportation system of the Soviet Union. 68 thousand kilometers of main pipelines, more than 500 pumping stations, 24 million cubic meters of storage capacity. The company transports 83% of the oil produced and 30% of oil products in Russia. Owner of port infrastructure: Port Primorsk, Port Ust-Luga, Port Novorossiysk, Port Kozmino.
Before us is an infrastructure company of strategic importance, the profit of which does not depend on fluctuations in energy prices.
The company's net profit continues to grow from year to year, the debt is decreasing, despite the growth of capital expenditures, the growth of Cash on the balance sheet is positive in the context of high CBR rates. Transneft indexes the cost of its services annually by the amount of inflation + 0.3%.
The average dividend yield for 10 years is: 94.44 ₽, for 5 years: 117 ₽.
The Russian government owns 78% of voting shares. Which is both a plus and a minus. The minuses include the direction of the company's profits for purposes not related to commercialization. This includes an increase in taxes from 20 to 40%, which was approved on December 2. The plus is protection from takeovers and splitting of the company, and in the event of a decrease in the state's share to 50% + 1 share, there will be an increase in the value of both ordinary and preferred shares. We consider this scenario probable in the current conditions.
The technical picture remains bearish, the company is in a downward trend, the range of which is 1831-699, which is 70% lower than the ATX. The current movement that is forming at the moment shows signs of a double bottom.
Given the dividend yield, financial indicators and strategic importance of the company, we have a positive view of these shares.
Levels that we consider acceptable for forming a position: 969-790.
Levels at which it is possible to increase positions above standard risks are 493-308.
With respect to you,
Daniel Drozdov.
CIS Market Analyst VokCapital
Disclaimer:
The information above is not an investment recommendation.
