Inminent breakout on EURSEK ?We could see an inminent bullish breakout today at NFP´s . Adjust Stop below 9.37 . It price reverses today below mentioned level I will turn bearish till 9.25 .
SEKEUR trade ideas
EURSEK - Selling on better macro dataSweden could say "Thanks, we are doing fine, no risk of deflation" , based on just released CPI numbers.
After yesterday daily hammer, EURSEK turning down from range top again.
Daily: Price action should be considered as consolidation within a wider range, right now ard equilibrium level. The strategic short position is recommended only below 9,39 and 9,25 key levels, with further confirmation signals (DMI reversal, Chikou cross, Price break below Kumo)
4 Hrs: Price back below Kijun Sen, Senkou B and 100 WMA, DMI turning bearish with the heavy selling seen in last candle. Sell the spikes and/or get ready for size up after Price breaks 9,3950.
p.s.: as Sweden's economy really depends on EU economy, now we have a very good question: if Sweden is doing so well, is there really such a bad situation in Europe? Is there really a threat of deflation?
EURSEK - Short, and maybe short more laterDaily: Yes, long term it is still bullish trending, but pressure on EUR is increasing, while actually macro numbers coming from Sweden are quite good. Also the technical picture says there is more room to the downside in short term. But can it break even lower and start finally a longer term bearish move?
Indicators:
- Price is still above the current Kumo, but below Kijun Sen and below Senkou B line (that means Future Kumo overshades Price). Chikou span lost its open space.
- Weak Tenkan/Kijun bearsih cross -> bull wave lost momentum
- DMI is closing in, ADX started to decrease -> bullish momentum is decreasing
- MACD is bearish, Slow Stoch is bearish
So far it looks like a swing back in the bullish trend channel. If it will be only a correction again then Price drop should stop somewhere ard 9,28-9,32 area. But if once 9,25 key level is cleared, EURSEK will make a huge bearish reversal with 9,00 and 8,80 in primer focus.
4 Hrs:
Bearish. Looks like each and every Kijun Sen retest is a good sell entry point. DMI-ADX is just about to start increasing, which means the bearish momentum is just starting now. (I think, yesterday spike from 9,3950 to 9,4300 in the afternoon was due to a huge NOKSEK bearish position unwind. Lot of people jumped on the story that NOKSEK should go to/below parity, but with Oil correction NOK quickly reversed and forced NOKSEK stops too.)
Slow Stoch just crossed down again, we may see testing 9,3260 even today.
EURSEK - A possible future alternative to switch from EUR The major trend is still up, but during the last 4 months EURSEK has been moving rather sideaway within the horizontal range and the trend channel. It had a false break of the trendline in October, followed by a spike up, espec after Riksbank unexpectedly cut base rate.
Ichimoku lines are flat, Chikou Span is hitting Price candles too, MACD has no clear signal either. Tenkan is still below Kijun Sen and for last few days Price action is refusing each spikes above Kijun Sen. (Actually I think all these spikes were proxy moves due to NOK weakness). ADX is very low too. All in all for now it is all just moving sideaways, the bullish trend has lost its momentum.
The support and resistance levels are getting more and more important now. If you zoom out, you can see the upper resistance is exactly at the double top highs of 2011. However the lower levels are getting even more important. By the end 2014 - beginning of 2015 the trendline and Kumo bottom (Senkou B) will stay together. In case EUR will remain under pressure, this support area (marked with the rectangle) might be attacked and finally a trend reversal could take place. Keep in mind, that both classic trend break and reversal theory and Ichimoku Kumo breakout strategy requires a confirmation in form of a lower low, or say a break of previous horizontal low. So the first short entry point would come around 9,14 - 9,1450, the second below 9,07.
For now this is just a food for thought, not a firm trade recommendation as it is defenately not yet time to go short, but this chart will be defenately interesting to follow if you stay bearish on EUR.
ERUSEK a short from neckline retestFrom larger timeframe I can take a strong bearish week below 3 months low.
I am now looking at a neckline retest and there is a channel of sorts with macd divergence from the recent peaks.
Price remains below the f6 from the downflow that I have identified.
My bias is wrong if it should day CLOSE strongly below the green lines.
Spikes are not considered SL for me.
TP i can look to aim at recent low and have the other portion extended to below.
EURSEK - Quick update, strategy is still hold shortDaily: What we have seen in last two days was a fake bullish reversal attempt. Price action finally ended up in a bearish candle yesterday, buying was rejected at Key Level (which was previously a multi month support for Bulls).
Tenkan/Kijun still in strong bearish cross, price is below Kumo and Kijun Sen, Chikou Span is below Price and Kumo, future Kumo is bearish.
I think if we see one more selling attack at 9,1100, then the trendline will succesfully break. Otherwise the triangle remains intact, and Price can go higher to test 9,2000+ again. Still, after yesterday I give somehow bigger chance for a bearish continuation from here. Upper supports are: 9,1500 / 9,1650 / 9,2250
4 Hrs: Looks like a similar kind of false break of 100 WMA and the Kumo as seen on 26-28 September, now Price is back below 100 WMA and touch below Kumo too. But to make sure bearish position is still reasonably good to hold, Price should dip below Kijun Sen at 9,1100, pulling down Chikou Span and also forcing DMI to bearish again
Now it is even more clear how important the 9,1100 level is.
Strategy: Short entry at 9,1100 stop if offered. Stop loss above 9,1510.
EURSEK - False breakout and great turnEURSEK turned so nice today, it's a beauty. I expect it to rally in the coming days, and if 9.35 breaks, I expect a wild ride for a few weeks. Impulse is green, candle is very bullish, everything is in place for a rally!
Weekly chart in the related charts section, we are still in a rally!
EURSEK - It can break, so increase shorts! No more comment, pls see my previous posts on EURSEK.
Daily: The trend line is still there to hold.
4 Hrs: Given the oversold Slow Stoch, we may still see a pull back, which can be a really good opportunity to sell
Important note: On SEK general mkt positionning is extremely short! SEK bears will be grilled at some point.
EURSEK - Sooner or later, but not yet.I think at some point it can become one of the next major EUR cross shorts. But not yet.
It is still moving sideaway, with maybe some bearish bias now.
Why do I put this chart on then? The reason is that if once it breaks the key support, it can start a massive bearish trend. The Key levels are still the same: 9,1440 - horizontal support below the Kumo and more importantly 9,10 - the long term uptrend line.
Of course there is still possibility that the major uptrend may continue, but given the ECB's dovishness and the fact that the mkt is pretty short on SEK in general (mainly vs USD), the probability of a trend reversal is somehow increasing.
Place your alerts, not to miss it! Anyway, I will call your attention in time, so if you keep on following me, you'll have the alert in time. :-)
EURSEK - Get ready for...?... for a move. Direction is still unclear. Given the sufferring of the EUR I'd say we'll rather see a bearish breakout, but I am not yet sure. The good old advise is: wait until it happens! You may miss some of the early move, but you'll have a lot better risk-reward.
Daily: It has been moving sideaway for about a month now! DMI-ADX is clueless, so is the Slow Stoch and MACD.
At mom Price is trading in the Kumo. Tenkan, Kijun, and future Kumo components (Senkou A and B) all flat. It seems until there is no story in SEK, or until model portfolios start to see some macro, relative value or technical change, it can not breakout in any directions.
For a strategic trend change, the lower support/resistance levels to watch are: 9,1400 and most importantly 9,1000. If the cross breaks below that it will have a nice open space to drop.
Upper barrier is 9,2385 and 9,2975.
4 Hrs: Total trendless. Both Ichimoku setup and DMI-ADX shows a complete undecision. However we have lower highs and thus a decrasing triangle is forming, so we have slightly bigger chance for a break on the lower side at some point, but it can still take some time and some more swings within the tightenning range.
Watch the barriers carefully!
EURSEK - daily entryWeekly chart is pointing up (see chart in the linked section), time to look for daily entries. This chart looks fantastic. A corrective double bottom with a divergence at a strong support area, while the weekly stands at value. It can't get much better than this.
I'm looking to build up a position, and not to take one signle trade. As with all my position trades, I'm using a soft stop. Hopefully, Mr. Draghi won't make any dovish comments tommorow at Jackson Hole.
EURSEK - Weekly analysisEURSEK started an uptrend and it doesn't look like theres anything to stop it. I think higher prices are going to come. 10.0000 is a great level to watch for.
EURSEK - Daily bearish Kumo break may get confirmationActually so far rather the EURNOK bearish move has put some pressure on EURSEK too. But it's time to watch this pair for more closely as it has more room to accelerate, if it starts to live some independent life.
I've been short for a while based on my previous idea (see link below), now I am thinking about to add.
Daily: Price is touch below the Kumo, but it really needs to break this horizontal Kes Support to gain more power. And still there will be the 9,08 trendline to fight with. That has chance to block the move initially, but by then Price will be a lot below the Kumo, and any pull backs will be likely a good chance to watch for building a strategic short position.
4 Hrs: Bearish, but has been struggling a bit. Obviously 9,1450-9,1500 has to be cleared. There's some chance It will do it soon, the Kumo is thick enough above the Price. Watch the ADX if that can get momentum after the bearish DMI cross.
EURSEK - Bearish Kumo break on 4 HrsDaily: Bullish trend got exhausted. ADX down sub 20. Price enterring Kumo, and Chikou Span is slowly coming below Price candles. Real bearish reversal would take place below 9,1450, bearish acceleration would come below 9,04.
MACD bearish, Slow Stoch sell signal.
4 Hrs: Bearish DMI cross with ADX at 28. Price dips below recent Kumo and the bullish trendline. Tenkan/Kijun weak bearish cross. Chikou below Price.
Go short in 9,1870 - 9,2150 area with 9,2525 stop. First tgt 9,10.
EURSEK - Will it keep long term bullish trend or ... ?... will it trade in a wider range top? It is hard to tell now.
In fact it is very hard to be bullish on EUR, and frankly speaking SEK has not strengthen any against Euro so far this year. I still believe later this year this can be one of the biggest and best reversal trades. But do not forget, you can not predict anything. Price goes where it wants to go. You can expect a reversal, but I think this is the biggest common mistake among traders (both private and professional ones), that quite some times they trade assumptions, early expectations and biases based on these. A recersal takes place, when indicators justify and confirm it really took place. That's all. And for this reason (besides several other reasons too) Ichimoku is a very useful system.
For now you can trade EURSEK in two ways:
A) You sell it ard this level (in 9,11 - 9,14 range), betting it is rather at range top. In this case you can put a quite tight stop on the short position at 9,1630. Target for the trade can be 9,04 - 9,06. Since the basic trend is still bullish, it is recommended to trade it only with 0,5 trade unit size.
B) If you like longer term trades and try to go with the trend, then wait for the pull back, and go long closer to 9,00 handle. In this case I give you one advise! Do not place a limit buy order in advance, as you can burn your hands if you run into some sharp moves like the one that happened to EURNOK last week. Always place a price alert first touch above the level where you would start looking at long entry. Then if you have enough additional info, you can put on the position with a limit buy or with a stop buy entry. This way you can not run into a situation, when suddenly price clears all supports at once and prints that reversal, which I was writing above.
EURSEK - Maybe topped, maybe not, but worths to watchThis chart is really interesting and worth to put it on the radar from now. Actually SEK is a lagging ccy against EUR. It has not performed at all during the EUR selloff since mkt started to price ECB decisions and not even since ECB announced its decisions.
Daily: Bearish DMI and slowly turning but still very low ADX / MACD bearish / Slow Stoch bearish.
What is very interesting, that Ichimoku setup still looks bullish somehow. But is it really bullish? If you check the components closer, you can see that both Kijun Sen, Senkou A and Senkou B (the cloud upper and lower lines) are flat. Tenkan started to point down, and future Senkou lines started to converge. Chikou Span is also at Price and pointing down. The Kumo held as support six times, but now it seems price may penetrate it deeper.
All in all I think these signs should ring the bell for the bulls.
On 4 Hrs time frame we also see rather bearish signals (SMI, Slow Stoch, and Price below Kumo. On 4 Hrs chart price should break below the lower line of the triangle to stay bearish biased, and to be able to push price on the higher daily time frame down into the Kumo cloud.
At mom it looks like EUSEK has a chance to test the bottom of the Kumo ard 8,9670. However that level might be a good support first together with the trend line.
If you think EUR weakness will persist later this year, it really worths to watch this cross from now, as in case it manages to break below 8,95 at some point, it can become a really good strategic short.
EURSEK - Signals of bull exhaustion?This post is rather an observation than a trade idea.
While the trend and daily Ichimoku setup is massive bullish, I think these are tipical signals of a possible short term trend exhaustion, when one being long should think about taking partial profit:
- Daily MACD turning down
- Slow Stoch turning down
- DI+ line crosses the ADX at high level
- pin bars and kind of doji trading at long term key resistance
There is some chance to see minimum a small pull back to 9,0640, or in case EUR will be generally under pressure, then a nice counter trend as well down to 8,99 - 9,00.
No real short signals yet. Even if you think about top hunting here, watch lower (4 Hrs and 1 Hr) time frames and trade according to their signals.
