SEKUSD trade ideas
SEK is the cheapest G10 currency=> Here we are shorting the dollar against SEK as we see a fresh leg down in the dollar for September flows.
=> Markets have gone overboard on risk premium and we are looking to get advantage of the Swedish elections coming up in two weeks.
=> Fundamentals are improving in both Sweden and Europe and a rising Euro will help move SEK as collateral here.
=> GL
(Entry at MKT; Stop 9.25; Targets 8.85 and 7.90)
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Short-term increase expectedThe US Dollar has been depreciating against the Swedish Krona in a short-term descending channel since the middle of August. This gradual decrease in price began when the rate reversed from the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel at 9.2290.
The pair reversed from the lower boundary of the junior channel during Thursday's morning hours. The common scenario would be a surge towards the upper channel line located circa 9.0800. However, technical indicators suggest that this advance might not be immediate, as the pair is being pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs.
Important level to look out for is the monthly PP at 9.0637.
USDSEK bounce imminent: high probability, RR of 2.It is all in the chart :)
From experience & instinct there is a high probability USDSEK is going to bounce now.
Bullish divergence is my condition to enter a trade and it is filled.
I will update this idea as this pair moves.
I do not know what the perfect way to scale in is. I do not own a quantum fund.
My scaling is small large medium (example: 0.2 lot 1 lot 0.5 lot), I do not know if this is the best, but this is how I like it. I do not want to go big too high in case I got stopped, just enough to not miss out if it bounces early, and not too low or I will miss all winners and only get filled big on losers.
1W Channel Up. Long.USDSEK is trading within a long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 67.172, MACD = 0.190, Highs/Lows = 0.1401, B/BP = 0.3894), which has just tested the first Support at 9.03686. If it doesn't continue higher from here then the Higher Low will be made at the lower Support on 8.93186. Both are technical long entries with TP = 9.35123.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Rate tests 55-day SMAUpside risks prevailed in the market at the beginning of July, thus sending the US Dollar 3.10% higher against the Swedish Krona. Half of these gains were erased during the previous trading week, as the pair had returned near the 8.80 mark at the time of this analysis.
The Greenback has already fallen below the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs. If the 55-day one likewise surrenders at 8.7950, it might be considered that a medium-term decline is in sight.
The following trading days are likely to come with a slight correction north until the monthly PP and the 55-period SMA at 8.85, as bears could lack the necessary momentum to dash through the 55-day SMA at first. This up-move might also lead the rate until a trend-line located near 8.92 is reached.