NOVOB80 trade ideas
NVO Novo Nordisk Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVO Novo Nordisk prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the $162.5 strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-18,
for a premium of approximately $6.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
mean reversion with enhancementsIm looking for mean reversion opportunities in this stock currently. My SL is bassed on time to profit ratio. i dont use stop losses but will get out if theres a 50% decline. I tested for probalistic monthly sharpe ratio outperformance of the s and p 500.
I tested for monthly normality with the kolmogrov smirnov statistic. and looked for a non-significant p-value in order to signify the distibution fitting
I measured the annual sharpe ratio outperformance. I also measured the uler,calmar,sterling and martin ratio to compare ma drawdown, avg drawdown and loss after previous loss using the ulcer index.
I used the hurst exponent to measure if the return distributions are indeed mean reverting then lastly i created a portfolio based around a basket of qualified stocks and maximized its sharpe ratio.
Novo is still in an ascending trendMy post is primarily a technical analysis. It is important you understand a technical analysis is a forecast and has a probability, and not a statement that it will be absolutely certain.
Fundamental analysts (25) have on Trading View a price target of 1020. There is a wide spread, but most are positive about the stock.
Novo is still in an ascending trend as evidenced by the price movements and the moving averages.
The price has broken through the resistance at 966, where there is support now.
There are two REC, where the big one has an object about 1050 and the small an object about 1030.
There is a poor correlation between price peaks and volume peaks. This weakens the trend.
RSI just over 50. RSI and OBV do not go up as the price from the beginning of February.
From mid-February, the price has divergences to the stochastic oscillator %D.
The sum of oscillators and moving averages is from one day to a month on purchase.
Considering the stock technically positive for a medium length of time, one to 6 months.
Disclaimer: I hold a position in the stock.
Remember you need do your own research and assessment before buying and selling.
Sources: Trading View
A defensive stock in a rising trend
Measured by value, Novo Nordisk is Northern Europe's largest business and headquartered in Bagsværd, Denmark.
It's a defensive stock that's done well. It is considered a bit of a weakness that they have the majority of their income on few products, but on the other hand they are good at what they are doing. There are some medicine companies that have spread too much and have had to give up some of what they have been doing.
This link provides a very good insight into the issue around Q2. It's in Danish.
app.marketingplatform.com
Price target: Trading View a year 860. Handelsbanken SE 3 years 925. Danske Bank 900.
This chart is YTD, but the trend lines are drawn after a longer chart 1Y.
Novo Nordisk is on a rising trend as evidenced by MA.
Volume supports the trend as price top respond to volume top and price bottom respond to volume bottom. On volume balance OVB rising 22 days back.
There was a dive after Q2 on August 4th, but the next day there are more people buying in than selling out on the first day.
RSI 21 slightly below 50.
Oscillators and MA stand on sell one day, neutral a week and buy a month.
Considers the stock technically positive for medium long time.
Disclaimer: I have a position in the stock.
Remember you need do your own research and assessment before buying and selling.
Sources: Trading View.
Is $NVO ready to push higher on the right side of its base?Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings
* Pays out dividends
* Forming a base for the past ~8 months
* Testing the 50 day line as support for the past 4 sessions
* Bouncing off the 50 day line with higher than average volume and printed a pocket pivot
Technicals:
Sector: Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - General
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.62
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.24
U/D Ratio: 1.02
Base Depth: 18.33%
Distance from breakout buy point: -8.94%
Volume 44.56% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just bouncing off of its 50 day line with tonnes of volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you might find one around the 110.5 area
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 14.27% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 14.07% to 14.47% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 1.57% away from its 50 EMA
WATCH $NVO BEARISH HINTS EVERYWHEREBearish
Fundamental
- Highly inflationary Macro environment / Q3 earning going to disappoint sentiment
- Funds Distribution
- Decent PE
- Negative PEG
- Decent P/FCF
- Top Sector / Industry / Leader
- Definitely niche sector but with highly inflationary environment and hints of bearish below technical
Technical
- - Momentum Theory Indicator - bearish divergence
- Price action formation ( rising wedge )
- Price rotating clockwise
- Still above upward Trend line
- Still holding 200MA
- Above POC
- Holding ST
- MACD divergence
Entry idea
- For members
Stop loss depending on entry and risk appetite. But always set meaningful stops.
"all things are difficult before they are easy"
Cheers and happy trading!
$NVO giving another entry opportunity before moving higher?* Good earnings
* Very strong up trend in the long term
* Broke out of a ~4month base and now retested it as support
* Sector: Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - General
* Relative Strength vs. Sector: 8.35
* Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.56
* U/D Ratio: 2.21
* Base Depth: 26.05%
* Distance from breakout buy point: 1.01%
* Volume 145.18% above its 15 day average.
Trade Idea:
* Given the amount of volume that came in around $116.55, it seems like there's quite a bit of demand for this stock around this price.
* You can look to enter now as the price is very close to the broken base
* The U/D ratio indicates that the stock's under accumulation
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look to enter around $115.16