Head and Shoulder patternNVDIA forming a head and shoulder pattern in the 4H. I will wait for a confirmation before targeting an entry for the downside.
NVDA19 trade ideas
Is the AI Revolution Built on a House of Cards?In the treacherous landscape of technological ambition, Nvidia emerges as a cautionary tale of unchecked corporate hubris and potentially unsustainable growth. What appeared to be an unstoppable technological juggernaut now reveals deep fissures in its seemingly impenetrable facade, with mounting challenges threatening to unravel its carefully constructed narrative of AI dominance. Specific challenges underscore this fragility: comments from Microsoft's Satya Nadella suggest a potential moderation in AI chip demand, while Alphabet's Sundar Pichai has highlighted that "the low-hanging fruit is gone" in AI model development.
Beneath the glossy veneer of technological innovation lies a troubling reality of regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. Nvidia faces a perfect storm of challenges: a potential slowdown in AI chip demand, an aggressive antitrust investigation by Chinese regulators, and growing skepticism from industry leaders. The competition is intensifying, with Amazon developing its own Trainium AI chips, and Broadcom positioning itself to capture significant market share with custom AI chip solutions projected to reach $90 billion in the next three years. OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever's stark statement that "we've achieved peak data" further undermines the narrative of unbridled AI growth.
The broader implications are profound and deeply concerning. Nvidia's struggles represent a microcosm of the larger technological ecosystem—a world where innovation is increasingly constrained by geopolitical tensions, regulatory challenges, and the harsh economic realities of diminishing returns. Despite massive capital expenditures by tech giants—with Microsoft nearly doubling its spending to $20 billion and Meta increasing expenses by 36%—only 4% of US workers use AI daily. This stark disconnect between investment and actual utility exposes the potential fragility of Nvidia's market position, with analysts suggesting that 2024 may have been the peak in terms of percentage increase for AI-related infrastructure spending.
NVIDIA's Declined over 10%, Why? When will be the Buy timing? NVIDIA fell nearly 4% today before narrowing the loss to 1.22%. Since hitting a record closing high of $148.88 in early November, the AI chip maker's stock has dropped over 10%.
So, what is causing NVIDIA's decline?
Firstly, Supply Chain Issues and Challenges
NVIDIA faces multiple challenges in its supply chain, a significant factor in its stock decline.
First, according to the latest data, the order volume and schedules for the GB200 and GB300 have been adjusted. Particularly, the mass production and shipment of GB series products have been postponed until after the Lunar New Year in February, increasing market uncertainty. Additionally, the small-scale production plans for GB300 face tight deadlines, putting pressure on GB200's mass production.
Specific supply chain issues include CoWoS-L packaging technology, heating problems, copper cable connections, and leakage issues. These not only affect product yield rates but also increase system integration time costs. Consequently, NVIDIA has suggested customers purchase the B200 8-card HGX as a transitional solution, and clients like Microsoft are considering switching their orders. These supply chain issues affect NVIDIA's product delivery capabilities and reduce market expectations for its future performance.
Secondly, Market Competition and Narrative Changes
ASICs are gaining market recognition as a competitive narrative.
ASICs are chips designed for specific tasks, akin to custom running shoes for a race. For certain tasks, ASICs outperform NVIDIA's GPUs (widely used for computing tasks) and are potentially cheaper.
OpenAI co-founder Ilya and industry leaders like Microsoft's CEO Satya have started discussing the importance of not only training AI models but also ensuring they can quickly and accurately make decisions in real applications. This shift in perspective gives ASICs an advantage in some scenarios, as they are designed for rapid, precise execution of tasks.
This raises questions about the cost of NVIDIA's GPUs. While powerful, they are expensive and require significant electricity and cooling. As ASICs perform better at lower costs for some tasks, there's consideration of replacing NVIDIA's GPUs with ASICs.
Additionally, changes in scaling law narratives and the strengthening of inference narratives pose threats to NVIDIA.
Scaling laws suggest that increasing AI model size (e.g., more neurons or layers) typically improves performance, but these gains are not infinite and require significant computational resources. This means NVIDIA must continually invest resources to improve product performance, potentially increasing costs.
Moreover, companies like BTC, Tesla, and Google are investing heavily in their own AI chips or solutions. This intensifies market competition and challenges NVIDIA's leadership.
Thirdly, Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
Market sentiment and capital flow significantly impact NVIDIA's stock price. As the year ends, retail investors, ETFs, and institutions adjust their portfolios. Fluctuations in tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google affect tech stocks like NVIDIA. Investors are more cautious, favoring stable, promising companies.
Given these conditions, NVIDIA faces pressure on its stock price due to supply chain issues and competition. Lowered expectations for NVIDIA's future performance lead to capital outflows and stock price declines.
Fourthly, Future Outlook and Catalysts
Despite current challenges, NVIDIA has opportunities for a turnaround.
First, NVIDIA needs to resolve supply chain issues, improve product yield, and delivery capabilities. Second, strengthening its presence in software and applications is crucial to addressing market competition. Additionally, NVIDIA should explore new computing narratives to expand its computing potential.
Fifthly, Technical Analysis and Price Divergence
Previously, prices rose continuously, but volume and KDJ began to decline, showing divergence. Without capital support, upward momentum was insufficient, leading to a short-term adjustment and a break below the mid-term trend line, resulting in a mid-term callback.
When Might a New Rally Occur?
From a technical analysis perspective: After two prior mid-term adjustments, breaking the downward trend line may signal the start of a new rally. Thus, this new rally must first break the resistance line.
From a catalyst perspective: While January's CES and the earnings release in late February may not bring major surprises, March's GTC is worth anticipating. NVIDIA needs to showcase new technologies and products at this event to restore market confidence. If NVIDIA can introduce groundbreaking innovations, a stock rebound is possible.
NVDA RANGE BOUNDWe have the resistance in and new phase of Quantum and AI stocks boosting gains QUBT, RZLV to name a few. Cheers!
NVDA at a Key Level! Trade Setups and GEX Insights for Dec. 181. Daily Chart Overview (1D)
* Trend: NVDA has been in a strong downward move but is currently showing signs of potential consolidation after hitting a low of 126.86.
* Support/Resistance:
* Immediate resistance: 132.55 – a psychological level for a potential breakout.
* Major support: 126.86 – a key area where buyers have stepped in.
* Volume: The volume has been increasing, suggesting a possible reversal attempt if bulls take control.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Showing a potential bullish crossover, signaling a momentum shift.
* EMA: Price is approaching the 9 EMA. A close above the 9 EMA could validate a reversal toward higher resistance levels.
2. Hourly Chart Overview (1H)
* Trend: NVDA broke out of a falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal signal.
* Key Levels:
* Support: 130 – the breakout level of the wedge.
* Resistance: 134 – target area where sellers could return.
* Volume: Increasing volume confirms buyer strength near the wedge breakout.
* MACD: Positive divergence indicates upside momentum aligning with the breakout signal.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights
* Key GEX Levels:
* 135: Highest positive Gamma (CALL Wall), acting as strong resistance.
* 128: PUT Support (negative gamma), which served as a critical support level.
* Gamma Activity:
* CALL walls dominate above 135 and 140, signaling heavy hedging activity and potential upward momentum.
* Strong PUT walls at 128 and 124 show where buyers previously defended NVDA.
* Options Oscillator Metrics:
* IVR: 29.7% (implying moderately elevated volatility).
* IVx: 51.8% (implied move for the week).
* CALLs: 64% of the volume.
* GEX: Bullish bias, indicating a potential move higher if price holds above key levels.
Trade Setups
1. Intraday Scalping
* Entry: Long above 130.50 with confirmation.
* Target: 132.50–133.00.
* Stop-Loss: Below 129.00.
2. Swing Trade Setup
* Entry: Long on a confirmed break of 132.55.
* Target: 135.00–140.00 (CALL walls).
* Stop-Loss: Below 130.00 (support zone).
Conclusion
NVDA is showing bullish signs after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern. With support from rising volume, bullish momentum on MACD, and key GEX levels indicating resistance at 135, traders can look for a potential short-term upside move. Key levels to watch are 130–135, with stops placed strategically to manage risk.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Let me know if you need further adjustments! 🚀
HEAD & SHOULDER spotted?H&S spotted on NVDA , for this case , we will use $128-$130 as the H&S support.
if price break down below $128, will expect market dive down to 200MAs at $115 ,and next strong support would be sitting at $95 - $100.
if $128 supported well, we may expect a bounce up to $140 zone.
Pending for a confirmation.
NVDA Back to Bullish?NASDAQ:NVDA is at the top of the current Golden Zone. If it can stay above this zone, I like the continuation back to all time highs. Watching the close today.
False H&S: LONG NVDA for next 3 MonthsThere's no bull market without the chips. I think this is a false head & shoulders pattern and this resolves much higher.
I think we rally hard with the Santa Claus Rally once we get this fed meeting out of the way.
I think we find ourselves over $150 in a month or so.
I think the $130 level is now turning into support if we can hold it over the next few days.
Entered with 200 shares @ $128.50
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE*
NVDA - Multiple conjunctions. What will happen?NVDA signals are in conjunction:
Head and shoulders
150 SMA
Weekly 50% fibo level
NVIDIA - Arguments For BearsAs in my last post "Arguments For Bulls" I do my Analysis for NVDA with eyes of a Bear.
We see the red down sloping Pendulum Swing Pitchfork. Because the A-Point is LOWER than the C Point, it's a Pullback Fork that would give us the potential downfall target at the Center-Line, before the Pendulum of price would swing to the upside again.
- the "Trend Barrier Dow" was breached
- price reacted to the tick multiple times at the U-MLH (White Rectangle) (Upper-Medianline-Parallel). This is clear resistance.
- Price just filled the GAP from 3 Days ago, so it can continue in the opposite direction (down) again.
So, that's it.
You have 3 ways to play this:
Long, Short, Flat.
Earnings of such a Market influential underlying is a pure gamble. I grab some Pop-Corn and watch the show and see, which of the cases is wrong and right. §8-)
Happy Profits all
Nvidia on a cliff edge50% drop in play if that rising support line fails...
#nvda #nvidia #recession
NVDA SHORT. YES ACTUALLY.My fibs have major resistance being retested again on the daily. We lost the move to the high on the daily and we are retesting this level. Some would call it a head and shoulders. We will need to hold the next level down to go higher. If we dont hold here we are going to the bottom box. The level at $112 is tested already and I would expect lower. Longs in the bottom box and final pt on short.
Very easy stop loss right above all time highs on this short trade. Let me know what you think!
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Falls to a Two-Month LowNvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Falls to a Two-Month Low
While the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) climbed to an all-time high, Nvidia's (NVDA) stock price dropped below $131 during yesterday's trading session for the first time since mid-October. This bearish behaviour suggests a weakening of Nvidia's leading position. What is the reason?
A key driver could be the significant surge in Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) shares, a competitor to Nvidia. Following a roughly 20% price increase for AVGO in one day, another growth day followed, as we anticipated yesterday. As a result, amid Broadcom's strong forecast for 2025, AVGO shares have risen by 54% since early December, and investors may be reallocating their portfolios, selling NVDA and buying AVGO.
Technical analysis of Nvidia's (NVDA) stock chart reveals a concerning picture — bears may break the lower boundary of the blue channel, which has acted as support throughout 2024. Importantly, bears managed to push the price downwards both from the $150 level and the $140 level (indicated by arrows).
According to the Nasdaq exchange, NVDA's stock price in today's pre-market trading has fallen below $130. If this does not trigger demand for the stock of one of the leading companies in the AI boom, it will be another worrying signal.
According to TipRanks, analysts remain optimistic for now:
→ 37 out of 40 analysts recommend buying NVDA shares.
→ The average price target for NVDA is $177 within 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Long scalp: Follow up on previous postTo follow up on my previous post, as expected, this morning we have a perfect pre-market test of the .232. There's the entry, scalp bounce incoming. Longing the 129.5 (.232) level, SL is an hourly below the .232, TP is the next northern fib. Then likely GET OUT🤙
SHORT NVDA! Double-Top against SPYThe risk-to-reward is there
Short NVDA / Long SPY
The trade is simple...It's invalidated at some point higher than the double top AND higher than all the liquidity created by stop-losses.
Target the large gap but manage the trade along the way.
Keep the stops WIDE. There will be PLENTY of people trying to Buy-the-Dip and hoping to re-create the massive run up.
NVDA in weekly divergenceThe vol on NVDA has faded and succumb to weekly divergent signaling. The imbalance range seems to be pulling on price for a rebalance.
Once price clears this imbalance we will be looking for signs of bullishness in technicals.
Is Nvidia really going to play out this H&S?I hate formation trading. I love a H&S on RSI, but on the price chart - they're just so obvious that I can convince myself they "must" play out, which has hurt me in the past.
With that said, this one is pretty nice. Sure... you'd prefer the right shoulder to be lower than the left, but I think that's just being picky. So then...IS Nvidia REALLY going to play out this 25% total H&S dump while the rest of the tech sector makes new ATHs day after day? I THINK SO, YEA
As TQQQ made new ATHs today, NVIDIA continued with the girthy red candle party and officially broke the most optimistic bull's daily neckline, and so gun to my head I'd say yes, the H&S measured move to $120-$115 is where the smart money is. First sign NDQ pulls back and NVIDIA is going to the dump.
With that said, I love to make small counter trades of my own expectations to try to keep my head honest. So while I am currently big account short, I have a speculative scalp long based on the following bullish hopium:
As you can see, the .382 fib got front run, which I ALWAYS consider bullish until proven otherwise. I would expect a retest of the .382. premarket tomorrow, and bounce or not will decide vector. Nvidia also respected the daily 200ema, which is the last line of hope on any chart I markup. The weekly 20ema is being respected thus far, which is often the line in the sand in bull markets. You also have hourly and 4 hour oversold bullish divergence on RSI. Oh and finally... rising rides and all... No healthy charts are red right now.
Scalp long entry is 130.5, SL is an hourly close below the .382 fib which is 129.6, TP is .618 138.6🤙
Current short calls for entry at 129.5 once .382 confirms failed, then enjoy a complete local retrace to $115🤙
NVDA out of gas?H&S on the daily with 132.67 as the neckline. We also have another H&S that has played out and was followed by a double top, now failing once again under support. I'm in puts now with a stop-loss at 133. This is also where i would flip bias for potential squeeze at 133 after a backtest of 132.67
NVDA in a Clear Head and Shoulders PatternGiven the performance of the QQQ of late, and multiple congruent levels and patterns on NVDA's chart, here are some interesting levels to consider.
nvda orderflowThe average price target for Nvidia is $176.14. This is based on 40 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months. The highest analyst price target is $220.00 ,the lowest forecast is $135.00. The average price target represents 28.25% Increase from the current price of $137.34.
NVDA Falling Wedge Pattern Setup: $127 SL - $153 TargetA falling wedge pattern has formed on NVDA's daily chart, with price action contained between two converging downward trendlines. The stock shows a potential bullish reversal setup after reaching recent highs around $145. Volume has been declining during the pattern formation, which is characteristic of a falling wedge. The setup offers a clear risk-reward with stop loss at $127 and target at $153, with entry planned on a break above the upper trendline.
NVDA to come down to $35-50 areaNVDA to come down to $35-50 area
Based upon previous 2020-2021
And also 2015-2018 patterns
Understanding Market Dynamics: When Effort Meets Resistance and volume dynamics. For instance, there are moments when stocks rise with high volume, yet the price barely moves. This phenomenon can be a critical signal for traders, reflecting the market's internal mechanics.
In general, there are four key states to observe in the relationship between price and volume:
High Volume, Low Price Movement – A potential sign of resistance or distribution.
Low Volume, High Price Movement – Indicates lack of conviction or speculative activity.
High Volume, High Price Movement – Suggests strength or accumulation.
Low Volume, Low Price Movement – Reflects consolidation or market indecision.
These dynamics highlight the importance of not just looking at price charts, but truly understanding the story they tell. Sometimes, the market signals "buy" during peak momentum, but soon after, prices find their way downward effortlessly, leaving behind effort without result—a classic sign of exhaustion or distribution phases.
Take NVIDIA as an example. While I currently avoid trading it due to its strong fundamental standing and lack of immediate alternatives, sometime fools can become smart when it's punpy ride. the chart itself reveals fascinating patterns. These patterns often follow the laws of physics—momentum, inertia, and resistance—all playing out visually in the markets.
Remember, this is not trading advice but an invitation to explore how combining technical and fundamental analysis can provide deeper insights into market behavior. Every trader should develop their own system and evaluate risk accordingly.
i don't know if it will go up or down, but as i see from the behavior of the price i can only guess :) let's find out
