Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry Trend is observed from an impulse run’s lowest/highest point and projected outwards in symmetrical fibonacci retracement via price/time from the first reversal candle to the end of the rally, creating crosshairs. These ‘crosshairs’ visually represent the trending ‘price distribution projection’ in price/time symmetry.
Using this concept, I draw a ‘projection trend line’ from the bottom or top of the impulse run thru the projected 78.6% price/time retracement value, to identify the price distribution structure in a linear form.
Now to introduce my STOP LOSS TRIANGLE.
This is a concept of decaying price and time as an underlying move towards our theoretical projection, where if the underlying enters our built faded cross-section, the SL is triggered to avoid sideways consolidation and decaying contract premiums.
This ‘right’ triangle that is ‘sclene’ by nature is created by taking the furthest projection in price/time symmetry (78.6%) and drawing a vertically placed straight line to the highest/lowest point in the rally previously identified. Here, I create a ‘right triangle’ by turning 90 degrees towards my final point, which is made by the nearest projection in price/time symmetry (38.2%). In its entirety, this forms the stop loss triangle.
Come follow me on X @askHVtobidIV for more!
CHEERS!
NVDA80 trade ideas
NVIDIA Breaks Out - Is a Bigger Rally Coming?NVIDIA Breaks Out - Is a Bigger Rally Coming?
NVIDIA has broken out of a bullish triangle pattern, signaling that it might be ready to climb higher. In my view, the bottom was reached at 86.00, as even market pressures from Trump couldn't push it down further.
NVIDIA seems to be waiting for more details on the US-China trade deal before making a stronger upward move.
If positive developments emerge, it could trigger a bigger bullish wave, lifting the stock even higher.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NVDA rebound after PANIC SELLING
This idea is a perfect example of how the market gives you different signs at the reversal points.
Let's recap from the beginning:
1. First, there was the CRACK pattern of the support, which warns of a bearish move.
2. There was an attempt to go higher which did not work out.
3. There was a GAP DOWN, that needed to materialize the CRACK pattern to the downside, but it did not act right, and did not spill right away and there was a bounce above the broken pink support line.
4. After #3, you would expect a Bullish move, the BLUE trajectory, since #3 acted as a real-time lookalike of a SPRING by Wyckoff methodology. But the BLUE did not materialize, so it did not "act right" according to Jesse Livermore.
5. When we started going down again on wider and wider bearish candles, this confirms again the CRACK PATTERN.
What is the CRACK PATTERN?
The crack pattern is when there is a CLEAR support/resistance line, that has been "cracked", but then there is a "retest" a false move, to the other side, as if the CRACK is the false move, but the CRACK signifies the upcoming strong move. Once the CRACK is being CRACKED again, the big explosive move should come.
6. The CRACK pattern materialized, and we got the spilldown = STRONG SHORT MOVE.
7. See my educational idea about this CRACK PATTERN, as "found" before the fact, this time it was more tricky than usual since it did not follow "the right way" as right away as usually happens on a weaker stock since NVDA has a bullish outlook. So it "put out a fight. Or in the puppet master view... if the public want to buy higher before the fall... there is no reason to sell him lower... so the price rebound and the fall did not materialized right away.
8. The moral lesson from this, is that in realtime, you need to change your hypothesis as you go. Once a signs for strong movement happen, then you want it to "ACT RIGHT". If it does not act the way you know, you need to quickly change your direction.
NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-07NVDA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-07)
Model Summaries
Grok/xAI Report
Technicals: Price $117.06 above all key EMAs; bullish MACD on 5-min and daily; RSI overbought short-term (75) but neutral daily (59); trading near upper Bollinger Bands. Sentiment: VIX elevated at 24.76; mixed news (AI rally vs. supply delays); max pain at $111 suggests some bearish undertone. Direction: Moderately bullish with caution for pullback. Trade: Buy naked $113 put (premium $0.59) anticipating pullback, stop if $119 breach, target 25–50% gain, 65% confidence.
Claude/Anthropic Report
Technicals: Strong intraday uptrend; bullish MACD and RSI neutral daily; immediate resistance at $117.68. Sentiment: Sector tailwinds, positive news, but VIX elevated and max pain at $111. Direction: Moderately bullish. Trade: Buy $121 call at $0.75, profit target 100% ($1.50), stop-loss 40% ($0.45), 65% confidence.
Llama/Meta Report
Technicals: Bullish MACD, overbought short-term RSI, mixed reversal risk. Sentiment: Mixed news; VIX rising; max pain theory. Direction: Moderately bullish but immediate entry risky—overbought, mixed signals. Trade: No trade recommended at open (confidence <60%).
DeepSeek Report
Technicals: Bullish breakout, expanding bands, RSI overbought M5 but room on daily. Sentiment: Positive AI policy news; VIX manageable; max pain unlikely to derail strong technicals. Direction: Strongly bullish (70% confidence). Trade: Buy $122 call at $0.56, target $1.12, stop if $115.86 break, size 3–5% of capital.
Gemini/Google Report
Technicals: Strong uptrend but very overbought short-term. Sentiment: Mixed news with supply concerns; VIX rising; max pain $111 adds caution. Direction: Neutral/unclear for immediate trade (confidence <60%). Trade: No trade recommended at market open. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement
Agreements
All models see a strong intraday and daily uptrend with price above key EMAs and bullish MACD. Short-term RSI is overbought, suggesting potential for pullback or consolidation. VIX is elevated (~24.8), signaling caution. Max pain at $111 introduces a bearish tether toward expiration.
Disagreements
Trade selection: Grok favors a bearish put; Claude, DeepSeek favor bullish calls; Llama and Gemini hold off. Confidence: DeepSeek is most bullish (70%), Grok and Claude are moderately bullish (65%), Llama and Gemini see too many conflicting signals for immediate action. Strike selection varies widely: $113 put, $121 call, $122 call, or no trade. Conclusion
Overall Market Direction Consensus: Moderately bullish for the week, with elevated short-term risk of pullback.
Recommended Trade
Strategy: Single-leg naked call Instrument: NVDA weekly options (expiry 2025-05-09) Strike: $122.00 Call Premium: ~ $0.56 Entry Timing: At market open Profit Target: $1.12 (100% gain) Stop-Loss: $0.34 (40% loss) Confidence: 70%
Key Risks and Considerations
M5 RSI overbought (75) risks a short-term pullback. Elevated/rising VIX may induce whipsaws. Max pain suggests potential downward drift into expiration. Monitor any fresh supply-chain or sector news at open.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "NVDA", "direction": "call", "strike": 122.0, "expiry": "2025-05-09", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.12, "stop_loss": 0.34, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.56, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-07 20:16:47 UTC-04:00" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
NVIDIA: Breakout above ascending triangle, retest confirmationNVDA has been forming an ascending triangle over the past few weeks, with declining volume. Finally, it broke out yesterday, and today, we had a retest of the resistance line. NVDA was down about 1% earlier today however after a successful retest of the resistance line, it is now up 0.8% at the time of writing.
In terms of support, it seems the price has successfully bounced off the 50-Day SMA line. While an ascending triangle is bullish, the 200-Day SMA is likely going to be a point of resistance (around $125).
This is amid the renewed overall market strength and the news related to the reduced limitations of exporting AI chips - which is contributing to the momentum.
Please note: Not financial advice.
NVIDIA Corporation: Bullish ConsolidationThe NVDA stock is facing resistance at the 0.5 Fib. extension level. This resistance was met after a higher low and above 0.618 Fib. While this is a confirmed resistance zone, market conditions are bullish.
The RSI is now above 50. It is at its highest on a rise since late January earlier this year.
Local resistance on the RSI has been broken and this oscillator is trading straight up. This is a positive and strong signal. Here is the chart:
The yellow horizontal line is the local resistance which has been broken. On a drop, this same line would now work as support. A "magic" line I should say. :D
It is magical because it helps us predict the future with a high level of accuracy and certainty; so far so good.
These dynamics: The higher low, the small stop at resistance, the bullish RSI and overall bullish market conditions are all part of a bullish consolidation period.
Let me break it down for you; the market will continue to consolidate for a while, for as long as it needs, before moving higher to hit a new high. The conditions revealed by this chart setup is that the low that was hit 7-April remains the bottom. The market can shake, NVDA can go down, it can go up but this low will never be challenged, you can set your stop-loss below it. Any short-term movements against you is just noise. Wait patiently and eventually it will grow.
If you have any questions leave a comment it will be my pleasure to answer.
Thank you for reading again.
See you tomorrow, or the next day, or yesterday-more again.
Make sure to follow. My main focus is Cryptocurrency but I also do the SPX, NVDA and TSLA. (And sometimes Gold which is bearish now.)
Namaste.
Nvidia Shows Signs of Recovery -but the Bearish Channel Remains Over the last five trading sessions, Nvidia’s stock has gained more than 9%, and short-term bullish momentum remains intact as the tech giant appears to benefit from expectations of a potential easing in trade war tariffs. Notably, the company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, recently stated that the Chinese market for artificial intelligence chips could reach $50 billion within the next two years — highlighting the importance of maintaining access to this market. This reinforces the view that a diplomatic resolution to the trade conflict is crucial for Nvidia to sustain a steady recovery.
It’s also important to note that Nvidia is scheduled to release its next earnings report on May 28, with market expectations pointing to earnings of approximately $0.88 per share. Should results meet or exceed projections, this could reignite a bullish sentiment that has been largely absent from the stock over the past several months.
Bearish channel still in play:
Since early January of this year, Nvidia’s stock has formed a steady downward channel, pushing the price even below the $100 mark at times. While a consistent upward correction is underway, it remains insufficient to confirm a definitive breakout, meaning this bearish channel is still the dominant technical structure in the short term.
ADX:
The ADX indicator has been fluctuating below the neutral 20 level, signaling a decline in volatility over the average of the last 14 sessions. As long as this continues, the current phase of price neutrality may persist.
RSI:
The RSI is showing a similar picture, hovering near the 50 level — indicating a balance between buying and selling momentum in recent sessions, and reinforcing the lack of a clear short-term trend.
Key levels to watch:
$113: Current resistance level, aligned with the upper bound of the bearish channel and the 50-period simple moving average. Continued price action in this area may extend the current phase of consolidation.
$125: A critical resistance point tied to the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout toward this level could signal the end of the bearish channel.
$100: A key psychological support level in the short term. A move below this threshold could reinforce the bearish bias and trigger a deeper downtrend within the current price structure.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Possible Targets for Nvidia on Both Upside and DownsideNvidia has surged more than 55% since the early April dip and over 40% from the second dip, as expected in our earlier post. This massive rally was supported by a softening in trade policy (Bloomberg trade uncertainty index fell to 7.67 from 16.27), Nvidia's valuation being well below historical averages, and momentum sparked by Trump’s Middle East business trip.
Despite the surge, Nvidia still trades below its historical average based on forward price-to-earnings ratios. The stock has averaged a forward P/E of 32.2x over the past year, 34.2x over the last two years, and 40.2x over the past five years. Its current forward P/E stands at 28.4x. If Nvidia were to return to these averages, the implied price would be:
1-year average (32.2x): $153.04
2-year average (34.2x): $162.20
5-year average (40.2x): $190.79
However, relying on the 5-year average may not be ideal, as Nvidia’s explosive growth potential is no longer at the same trajectory it was five years ago. The 1-year average at $153.04 could be a more realistic near-term target.
Around the 1-year p/e price target, Nvidia has also a notable technical resistance. The stock has an infamous double top at $154 that has capped price advances twice before in November and January. This suggests that a short-term bet on further upside could be risky.
If Nvidia pulls back to around 120 level, however, it may offer a good buying opportunity, with upside potential toward 150 or higher, depending on the broader macroeconomic conditions at the time.
Please also check our earlier post:
NVDA by DXY parallel channel... interesting gaps and levelsBrief thing here...but taking a NVDA price point and dividing it by the DXY to achieve a lower graph. Then taking two lows and a pinnacle high to form a parallel channel with a 50% marker.
Can see how there is little usefulness in the below chart...yet the top one is quite interesting. The circles are places of interest and some levels were gapped up without retracing and whatnot.
But what does it mean..who knows, but compare your analysis to these levels and see what may be hiding in plain sight that you could miss.
PS....here is the top to recent bottom Fib Retrace on the same points from the below graph superimposed on the NVDA chart....interesting no?
The daily chart has some interesting levels that the parallels share...so if its a little top heavy, a drop can be on any of these lower levels.
Here is the Fib Retrace but with those same circles to see correlation with parallel:
closer view of just NVDA with all goodies attached...
NVDA Looks Ready to Pop – Here’s What I’m Watching 👀
Alright, I’ve been eyeing NVDA this week, and the setup is actually pretty clean across multiple timeframes. Let me break down what I’m seeing and what I’m thinking going into the next few sessions.
🧠 My Thought Process
So on the daily, NVDA’s been slowly crawling its way up underneath this big descending trendline. It hasn’t broken out yet, but the way it’s holding higher lows and pressing toward the top of that wedge tells me it’s gearing up. MACD’s starting to curl up, Stoch RSI is lifting — I just get the sense this thing doesn’t want to stay boxed in much longer.
I zoomed into the 1-hour, and you can see it’s still respecting that upward trendline. Price pulled back a bit but didn’t break structure — in fact, it bounced and started reclaiming some levels fast. 114–115 is the zone I’m watching. If we clear that with some conviction, I’m leaning bullish for a quick move toward 117–119.
📊 Options Flow / GEX View
Now this part gets interesting. GEX is showing some heavy call interest around 115, and that’s where we’re hovering right now. If we push above and hold, the next big call wall sits at 119, and then you’ve got the Gamma Resistance wall at 120 — that could trigger a fast pop if market makers have to start hedging aggressively.
On the flip side, HVL is at 110, so if we reject again at 115, we might get a flush down toward that level.
🛠️ How I’m Thinking About Trading It
If we break and hold over 115
→ I’ll consider grabbing some short-dated calls (maybe 117c or 119c for this week), but I’ll only size in if volume confirms.
→ Also might just scalp commons for a move to 118–120.
→ Stop would be below 112.5 or the 1H trendline.
If we reject 115 and lose 113
→ I’ll wait for confirmation, but I’d consider puts targeting that 110 HVL level. Not gonna force it though — want to see the trend shift first.
Final Thoughts
Not trying to front-run this — just letting the levels play out. But NVDA is in a pressure cooker, and it won’t stay quiet for long. I’ll be watching that 115 level closely. Above it, I’m bullish with targets at 117–119. If it stalls, I’ll sit back and wait to see if it gives a better entry off a pullback.
Let me know if you’re trading this too or seeing something different. Always down to compare notes.
Not financial advice — just walking through what I’m seeing and how I’d play it.
NVDA UP -MY MVP SYSTEM-
Momentum: NVDA has been moving in a down sloping pattern; it is now breaking out to the upside
Volume: vol spike when price dipped below the downtrend line (looks like a Wykoff spring); some overall inc vol lately
Price: it is <200ma, so caution is warranted; can’t rule out this downward channel as a possible bull flag; it’s a pretty clean move
*I don’t trade NVDA. I use it as a major market indicator. Over the past 1-2wks, my alerts went off for ES, NQ, and RTY - all to the upside. It would be nice to see gold move down for more confirmation that big $ is shifting into indices.
*The RSI is still around 50 and could definitely fake to the upside & then slice all the way down through the triangle.
*Weekly & Monthly charts still show a major break in the indices. This move up does not look like a resumption of a bull trend. A lot of repair would be needed on the long term charts for that.
"Order Block Resistance vs. Bullish Momentum: Who Wins?"
🧠 Reading Higher Timeframe Trends at Order Blocks – When Bullish Momentum Meets Resistance
When we analyze the trend in a higher timeframe and notice that price action is approaching or reacting to an order block, this should be treated as a potential resistance zone—even if the indicators still show bullish strength.
✅ What Confirms a “Strong Bull” Zone?
AO and RSI are both holding above the zero line, showing no reversal waves or strong sell signals.
The market is still in a bullish trend, even at resistance—but caution is required near order blocks due to potential reversals or liquidity grabs.
🔁 How to React When Price Hits an Order Block: Reconfirm Using 15-Minute Chart
Drop down to the 15-minute timeframe and recheck the trend using the same tools:
Look at the Confirmation Trigger (ChoCH).
If price remains above the confirmation level, then the bullish trend from the higher timeframe remains intact.
If price falls below the confirmation line, that’s your early signal that:
✅ A bearish reversal is forming on the 15m.
⚠️ The higher timeframe structure may be ending or entering distribution.
Even if the Quantum zones are shifting or adapting dynamically, the confirmation level remains your anchor.
📌 Summary:
Bullish AO/RSI above the zero line = still a strong trend.
Order block = natural resistance → stay cautious.
Always return to 15-minute timeframe to verify trend alignment.
Confirmation Trigger (ChoCH) is your decision point:
🔼 Above = trend continues.
🔽 Below = potential trend reversal.
NVDA eyes on $105: Support for one last DIP before new highs?Followup to my warning about $113.56 (click)
NVDA back to the Golden Genesis Fib, a major landmark.
If we are to see one more dip from here, look for $105.08
If we continue then lookout for the Golden Covid at $122.25
.
Big picture view showing the $113.56 Golden Genesis
=======================================================
My buy view for NVIDIA stock explained My buy view for NVDA.
If positive fundamentals continue to outweigh bad news, we are likely to see NVDA push further up towards $120, $130, $140, and then its previous peak of $150.
Trade with care if you are day trading, but this baby is still selling at discount in my view
NVDA LongJust checked this stock which seems very good trade for now. With a flow of good news for the past week about the trade war between China and USA, there is a good possibility for a long trade in here. Also technically, a downtrend line has been broken, and liquidity got swept, so i cant see anything in the way of a long trade in here.
See this marked blue line, thats a down trend that got broken. Now i would be looking for this small gap to be filled and the price testing the downtrend.
Confirm on lower tf if the price would hold this trendline and wont go below it, then make an entry.
NVDA, CONFIRMED BAT, SWING TRADEWait for PA to pullback to VWAP after recent advance (100). VWAP may provide a good entry for a swing to TP2. Good risk to reward, stop just below lower band (light blue) loss = 1% of acct. 30% profit taking at TP1, exit at TP2 or if PA closes under TP1 after hitting TP1.
NVIDIA (NVDA) investors should knowHello NVIDIA (NVDA) investors,
Looking at the daily chart below, we see that NVDA briefly broke out of its long‑standing yellow descending channel only to be pulled back in; price is now testing horizontal support in the $100–150 range. In the lower pane, RSI remains negative and has yet to break its downtrend line around the 41 level.
Technical Analysis
Descending Channel:
The stock has been trading inside a long‑term descending channel. Selling pushed it back inside after a false breakout near $137–142. The upper channel line sits around $115—until we see a daily close above that, a true trend reversal is unlikely.
Horizontal Support/Resistance:
Support: $95-100 (confluence of past lows and the channel’s lower boundary)
Resistance: $147-150 (channel upper line), then $145–150 (early‑April highs)
RSI:
Currently ~41. A break above the RSI downtrend near 45–50 would signal improving momentum; if it fails, we could retest oversold territory.
Fundamental & Macro Factors
Quarterly Results:
NVDA reported strong revenue and margin growth last quarter, driven primarily by AI/data‑center demand.
AI & Data‑Center Demand:
Demand from AI‑focused servers and cloud providers remains very high, and this secular trend is expected to persist.
Trump’s Latest Tariffs:
In early March 2025, an additional %145 tariff on China‑origin semiconductors was announced. This measure may raise NVDA’s export costs to China and exert short‑term margin pressure. It also risks demand swings as Chinese buyers adjust their inventory strategies.
Strategic Recommendations
Stop‑Loss:
Consider a stop‑loss on daily closes below $90 to protect long positions.
Position Sizing:
Scale into longs near support, and take profits incrementally near resistance.
Tariff Watch:
Monitor any further U.S. export restrictions or tariff changes on China—each announcement can drive volatility
-Celil Adıgüzel
NVDA$ - possible pullback to $50 (-67% from pick) in the making.NASDAQ:NVDA have done this before (67% pullbacks after long rally).
NVDA is following very predictable patterns for many years now, despite excitement around this stock - stock made "new recent low" and current rally maybe just a part of a "head and shoulders" in the making. If "new all time high" is not reached with in the next few weeks - we will see stock pullback to $50 or less in the next 6-9 month.
Historical Volatility Bottoming on NVDANASDAQ:NVDA HV10 (bi-weekly) printed a coiled low for me on Friday May 9th, where today we saw the spring on great macro news release. I expect volatility to continue its regression journey to quarterly means throughout the company earnings report into the end of the month.
Should be a wild ride before consolidating with the broader markets.
IV on the local monthly closed 50.48% -- this leaves a divergence still from HV10 to IV of 13.05% and is leaving a premium move capture to HV63 of 31%!
This is why I love capturing a volatility sweeping move, because the premium per move is advantageous towards capital. I expect bi-weekly HV to trend up over the following week increasing our volatility range.
CHEERS!