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SGDUSD trade ideas

COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The fact that the AUD is now the second largest net-short position among the majors does not really surprise given the recent string of negative factors such as the virus situation, slowing economic data in China and falling Iron Ore prices. This week we have the RBA policy decision coming up and markets want to know how stressed the bank has become given the recent challenges. It seems that consensus is expecting the bank to cancel their planned tapering that would have started in September, with more aggressive bets forecasting the bank to announce a higher pace of QE at this week’s meeting. Either way it will be an important one to watch for the AUD. For the NZD and CAD continued to move closer to neutral positioning. For the CAD this was hardly a surprise given the stretched positioning to begin with, but the NZD was a surprise with the currency not being able to take meaningful advantage of the most hawkish central bank among the majors. This week the quarterly employment data from New Zealand will be crucially important as it will be the last big ticket data points before the August RBNZ policy decision and could either seal the deal for a hike or could push back some of those expectations in the event of a very big miss. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY remains the biggest net short among the majors, and surprisingly has failed to take any real advantage of the drop lower in US10Y. Given the wash out in treasury positions and the move towards 1.14% in US10Y the JPY has not really taken the bait to appreciate as one would have thought. Thus, even though the currency remains oversold from a positioning point of view, it does show that there is some possible asymmetry in long USDJPY right now as a move lower in yields have not negatively affected the pair, and at these lows the probability is skewed towards US10Y upside. For the Dollar, it’s going to be a very data heavy week with the main event being Friday’s July jobs report. As the Fed’s focus has shifted away from inflation and towards the labour market, the jobs data will be watched closely as a gauge to see whether we are moving towards or away from the Fed’s goal of ‘substantial further progress’. Make sure to also keep track of the data points feeding into Friday’s NFP such as the two ISM PMI reports as well as the ADP National Employment data. GBP: The Pound is still in a net-short positioning despite the fundamental outlook still remaining bullish for the currency. That is a positive in our view as it shows that a lot of the frothy positioning has been flushed out after the June FOMC meeting. This week the main event for the GBP will be the upcoming BoE policy decision coming up on Thursday. With hawkish comments from BoE’s Saunders, some participants have argued that we could see a possible dissention at this week’s meeting on whether to continue with QE or whether to cut back. For now, it seems premature for the bank to cut purchases with the furlough scheme still needing to be unwound. The bank would arguably want to see how the labour market holds up before they commit to normalization, and that means waiting until at least October, in which case they would only have about 6 weeks of purchases left, which means the higher likelihood right now is that QE runs out as expected. EUR: For the EUR net-long positioning has continued to fall with the data updated until 26 July. As expected, the EUR managed to grind out some mild gains against the greenback, but unfortunately given the choppy price action going into FOMC we weren’t able to benefit the rewards and was taken out at break-even on our long EURUSD positions. This week, with a light calendar for the EUR it’s going to be a very Dollar focused week for the EUR in general. The weak bearish bias remains intact fundamentally, so any continued upside in EURUSD into key resistance areas could set up some interesting shorting opportunities. However, with such a busy data week ahead, it might be best to wait for data points before engaging the market, especially as we are now officially in the thinner liquidity and lower volume month of August, we might be in store for some choppy price action in between key data points.
by thunderpips
5
USDSGD-Wave b) in progress may be simple or complex to 1.34 ?Market Commentary: LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO... First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE... Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP. I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action. All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS
by nmkvijay
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: Yet another 13K unwind of net long positions for the CAD in the CFTC data updated until the 20th of July means that a lot of the froth in positioning has been taken care of. Our concerns about positioning for the past few weeks meant a patient stance with CAD longs, but with the size of the unwind we think CAD longs look attractive again on a relative basis. As for the NZD, the currency still looks very ‘cheap’ at the current levels given that the RBNZ is the first major central bank that stopped QE. Apart from that, expectations for rates to go higher in the next three weeks should also provide a favourable environment for the NZD. We like NZD longs versus the Dollar going into this week’s FOMC. We remain patient on AUD with the virus escalation. The challenge for Australia when compared to places like the UK and US is that the vaccination roll out is miles behind. So, if the same type of spike in cases occur it could create a lot of economic pain as we head deeper into Q3. On the radar this week will be employment data, and if that comes in much softer than expected our preferred way to express AUD weakness would be with AUDNZD and AUDCAD downside. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY positioning remains stretched to the downside, and the fast and punchy recovery in equity markets didn’t do the JPY any favours either. However, the inverse correlation with US10Y could still see JPY pressured. We’ve seen a lot of downside in US10Y over the past few weeks, beyond what majority of market participants (us included) were anticipating. The downside in yields meant one less negative driver for the JPY. But as a ton of the stretched positioning in treasury shorts have arguably been flushed out, we could see yields regain some upside momentum again. For the USD, this week we are turning slightly more cautious on the Dollar. Yes, the USD had good reason to see the upside it enjoyed over the past few weeks. But as the markets are looking for a slightly more cautious sounding Fed this week (due to the Delta variant), and since short-term the price action is looking a bit stretched, there could be some downside for the USD going into the FOMC. GBP: The GBP put in a decent recovery from the lows this week. Monday saw some downside as participants were disappointing when the most dovish member of the BoE said some dovish things. Hardly the type of reaction one would expect, but after the comments from Saunders the week before there was some hope that the overly dovish Haskel might do the same. However, despite the Monday sell off we saw Sterling put in a solid recovery, despite ongoing tensions between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. At the current levels, especially with positioning back into net short, one has to argue that GBP is looking attractive from a value perspective. As the markets are expecting a cautious sounding Fed this week, one of the ways we would like to express potential USD weakness in the week ahead is against the GBP. Obviously, we’ll need to keep close track of any major negative escalations on the political front. EUR: The EUR has seen a sizable push lower ever since we had the less dovish than expected June FOMC meeting. After that, the Dollar has enjoyed further upside from various drivers which has kept the EUR pressured, and the ECB’s continued dovish tone sure hasn’t helped. We have been very patient in chasing the EURUSD lower after finding the support around 1.1780 – 1.1850 as a very tough nut to crack. Even though we maintain a fundamental bearish outlook on the EUR and the EURUSD one has to argue that the downside looks a tad stretched. Positioning seems to agree with this as we’ve seen a whopping 72000 reduction in net long positioning in the past 5 weeks (that’s a lot). Yes, the overall net long positioning still looks way too high for the fundamental outlook, but timing doesn’t favour chasing the EUR lower from here. At the current levels the risk-to-reward does look attractive for a possible short-term mean reversion opportunity to the upside for EURUSD going into the FOMC, that is barring any possible risk off environments which should be supportive for the USD. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 July 2021.
by thunderpips
7
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDSGDTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.3580). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . USDSGD is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 79. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.3706 TP2= @ 1.3784 TP3= @ 1.3859 TP4= @ 1.3935 TP5= @ 1.3975 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
14
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDSGDTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.3580). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . USDSGD is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 79. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.3706 TP2= @ 1.3784 TP3= @ 1.3859 TP4= @ 1.3935 TP5= @ 1.3975 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
4
USDSGD-Expecting for correction for b) wave...labelling changed.Market Commentary: LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO... First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE... Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP. I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action. All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS
by nmkvijay
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It’s important to keep in mind that since the RBNZ meeting took place on Tuesday, we won’t see a lot of the upside in the currency we had this past week reflected in the CFTC data as yet. After the hawkish tilt by the bank as well as the solid beat in Q2 CPI data, expectations for hikes this year have risen substantially, and barring any major risk off tones we would expect a favourable environment for the NZD going into the August meeting. For the CAD, the fact that we it was one of the biggest position unwinds makes a lot of sense, as it shared a similar fate with the other two biggest net long currencies among the majors (EUR and GBP). The bias for the CAD remains tilted to the upside, but with a lot of the positives already reflected in the price, it will take a lot more positive news to see more meaningful upside in the currency. For the AUD, the virus situation is a negative driver to keep on the radar. Two of the largest cities in the country is already in snap-lockdowns, and further aggravation of the situation could develop into a key sentiment driver in the short-term, so definitely one to watch. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY saw quite a sizeable lift in terms of positioning, with another big batch of short positions being dumped. The hefty increases in short-term positioning over the past few weeks was arguably driven by the fundamental outlook, partly driven by summer liquidity ramping up carry trade activity. Thus, the currency is always going to be vulnerable to see some of that unwind, especially when we have bouts of risk off flows as we’ve seen occur over the past two weeks. For the US Dollar, as the fundamental bias remains neutral and as we are well within the summer liquidity period, the main driver for the USD has been the incoming economic events as expected. This past week we had Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where his persistent dovish tone, despite rising inflation data, saw some minor downside in the greenback, but retail sales also saw some additional excitement. This week will be a very quiet one for the Dollar in terms of events, so be on the lookout for Fed speak, and also keep track of the overall risk sentiment. GBP: Doves turning into hawks. This past week saw some very interesting comments coming out from the more dovish leaning members of the BoE, with BoE’s Saunders paving the way expectations that the bank could announce an early end to their QE program at their next meeting. This saw decent upside in Sterling, as it confirmed the market’s ongoing expectations that the BoE will be reducing accommodative policy in the weeks ahead, but also due to the fact that these hawkish comments came from a dovish member of the bank. This week we look to comments from BoE’s Haskel who is considered as the most dovish member of the bank. If he paints a similar picture to that of Saunders, the markets will arguably be quick to price in a tapering announcement for the upcoming meeting. Keep in mind the upside in Sterling occurred at the latter part of the week which means the CFTC data does not reflect it. The big reduction in net-longs is in line with more unwind in the biggest net-long positions versus the US Dollar. EUR: Despite the big reductions we’ve seen in EUR net-long positioning, the currency remains the biggest net-long position versus the greenback among the majors. With the Dollar’s fundamental outlook turning more neutral, the outlook for the EUR remains tilted to the downside. Majority of the upside in the EUR from expectations about a EU economic recovery going in Q3 was already reflected in the price before the recent FOMC meeting, which left the EUR exposed to lots of downside from a positioning point of view. Even though the bias for the EUR remains weak bearish, the amount of one-sided price action post the June FOMC meeting has seen the currency lose a lot of ground, which means we do want to be mindful of some reprieve from some possible mean reversion. This week we have the July policy meeting which was made more important by comments from ECB President Lagarde who stated that markets can expect updated forward guidance at the meeting in line with their new strategic framework, even though Friday sources pieces suggest otherwise. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 July 2021.
by thunderpips
2