BVA trade ideas
Path 1 or 2 for TopGlove next?TG has two short-term paths now, either path 1 or path 2.
To enter path 1, TG must close above RM 5.70 quickly then yes likely will go back into the green channel. But this channel isn't any good news for everyone yet as it is still a downward channel and likely huge selling wall will be around RM6. Meaning further downside pressure in weeks ahead is still very likely.
If TG fails to close back above RM5.70 quickly in next few days, likely it will choose path 2 which is to go down further to RM 4.50 region.
Therefore, set stop loss to protect yourself. Take care and be safe always!
Topglov - FA or TA? Who wins? (Learning Notes #10)Hello Traders,
I am currently learning Technical Analysis , and the ideas I post are what I call ("Learning Notes").
Comments on my analysis are very much welcome and will be greatly appreciated.
If you like my analysis, kindly drop a like and follow me! :)
Let us learn together, and grow together to be a better trader!
Sincerely,
Kenneth Lee
Disclaimer:
This is not a long/short recommendation, nor should it lead to any market actions and/or activities. Trade at your own risk.
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BERHAD (29-DECEMBER-2020)The price eventually breached below the neckline and completed the double top pattern, marking the completion of distribution phase. Since the last update on 24-Nov-2020, the price made several attempts to penetrate above 50-day EMA but futile. The bearishness is further strengthened as the price is now currently trading below 200-day EMA as the last support and below the red-kumo cloud.
The price is expected to continue its down-selling pressure on mark-down phase with an immediate short term target price of RM5.3 which coincides with 50% retracement of previous rally.
The Star newspaper made a positive headline on Top Glove today. In a nutshell, the company is confident of robust demand over the next two years. This news may indicate a positive recurring income and super profit in the future with possible high dividend payout. Thus, it is foreseen that this current downtrend provides a golden opportunity to buy back the shares at a lower price in order to get more dividend entitlement as well as to increase the controlling power of the company.
Note: This trading idea is for education purpose only and not to be construed as a buy call. The mantra of TAYOR and caveat emptor shall apply.
Has Top Glove bottomed? RM10 incoming? RM13 incoming?Awhile ago, we have started to see a M shape starting to form on Top Glove. In textbook, we call it the double top meaning price will reverse back to original level soon.
This link will help you to study about double top, www.finvids.com
But we have no confirmation yet until today 5pm we saw TG closed below RM6.11 key support level also called as the neckline. This therefore now serves as the first confirmation sign TG price will likely soon go lower than RM6. Second confirmation is to see TG breaking RM6 before we can confirm it will be heading to RM5.
2 more things to support this analysis:
- All key moving averages have been broken. Look at all the colourful lines, TG is trading below all the main colorful lines now.
- There has been a formation of 3 black crows on pass 3 days trading pattern. (Lower lows and lower highs were formed, this indicates further drops in days and weeks ahead.)
To study about 3 black crows, please visit the link below:
traderlaunch.com
With all of these, I think the hope of seeing RM10 and RM 13 per TG will still be far away. The likelihood of incoming RM 4.50 to RM 5.50 per TG has higher chance now.
Trade carefully everyone, cutting loss is also a profit taking strategy if you are not comfortable to see this falling knife upon your hard earned savings! More updates ahead soon!
Wishing you all a happy new year 2021!
Is JP Morgan's call of RM3.50 for Top Glove valid? I believe JP Morgan's call for RM3.50 is a valid call. Fundamentally, the company is making money but this is a seasonal business. Top Glove won't be able to sustain such a business volume forever. With vaccines coming out, the business volume of Top Glove will certainly be in downward trend. If a business comes because of covid-19, it will leave when covid-19 becomes a history. That is basic logic.
Putting fundamental aside, let see what is the chart telling us after a new high was made on 7th August 2020. The chart shows a clear double top formation which is always a bearish chart pattern. However how can we dive in deeper to get some confirmation on that? Elliot's wave theory of impulsive move 12345 and corrective move ABC are in play in this chart.
Right after 7th August new high was made, immediately a sell off happened. The correction from 7th August to 10th September can clearly be seen as a wave A correction move. How do we know that? Because the wave consists of a small "abc" move. The first "a" move was between 7th August to 17th August, a move from 9.765 to 7.135. Then immediately from 18th August to 24th August we saw a bounce to 9.505 which is a "b" way move up. B wave always is a small impulsive move up. Then immediately followed by a "c" wave move down again to 6.15 on 10 September. This first cycle completed the first impulsive A wave move down.
Then we saw a capital B big wave move up from 11th September to 16th October then sent TG to 9.72 range again. This move is a B wave up movement mainly because it consists of 5 smaller waves called 12345. But this wave got rejected again at 9.70 range. In my chart, you can clearly see all 5 waves that I have labelled them in blue. This therefore gives more weight to call it a B wave.
Next final move is of course the C wave down again. How far can we see this C wave goes? C wave can go as far as 168% of A wave's length. In other words, it means 1.68 times longer than the downward move between 7th August to 10th September. How long was August A wave move? It was 9.765 - 6.15 = 3.615. So a 168% extension of this move will give us 6.0732 downward pressure. Just substract 6.0732 from a recent high made on 19th October will give us a possible target price for next move which is 9.72 - 6.07 = 3.65. So yes, next bearish move of this C wave will possibly send TG down to 3.65 level. This level is also a Fibonacci 78% retracement level from the swing high made in August and swing low made in March 16, at about 1.90. And therefore this is the confluence area of how low TG price could go.
For now, for TG to be in bullish momentum again, it needs to break and close above 7.20 level to see further upside momentum.
In conclusion, through technical perspective wise, RM 3.50 call is possible. However this is not a financial advice, always do your own research. Thank you!
<TradeVSA> Topglov - Inverse Pullback & Continuation Mark-Down Sign of Weakness in the chart
1. Red Pentagon + Price breaking below 20/40MA
- Potential change of trend from Distribution to Mark-Down
2. Confirmation on mark-down and inverse pullback with Up-Thrust
- Rejection on 40MA
3. Green Pentagon but no follow thru above 20/40MA
- Confirmation on weakness in the background
4. No Demand appeared on 40MA
5. Up-thrust at 40MA.
- Price reject again to change the trend
Hit the "LIKE" button to support us :)
Disclaimer
This information only serves as reference information and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Conduct your own research and assessment before deciding to buy or sell any stock
TOPGLOVE LONG at Major Support Technical Analysis
I think the right question to ask right now is has Top Gloves bottomed? From chart perspective wise, I believe Top Glove has hit major Support Area 6.11 - 6.40. I would like to treat Support/Resistance as an Area rather than a Line.
We could see further downside pressure if it breaks therefore cut loss is important. I used Low of the Strong Support 6.11 - 1 ATR (0.28 for the date i drew the graph) = 5.83 (My Stop Loss Point)
It is at a very crucial level now that bulls must protect.
Fundamentally Analysis
Top Glove FPE after next 2 quarters should be around FPE = 6. MYX:TOPGLOV
Top Glove Expected upcoming quarter PAT is expected to reach around 3b PAT.
As the pandemic still ongoing, their high Profits margins will remain strong and intact at least for another 6-9 months.
For current price at major support and Low PE, the risks-to-rewards is favourable.
In all circumstances, there is always hope, lets hope Top Gloves to rebound !
Trend Analysis Top GloveJust like any sports games, the middle line is the most important zone to watch as it will indicate which side is in control of the game. Bear started to control the playing field and pushed the price below the middle line.
Joe Biden will become the next US President on 20 Jan 2021 and his presidential speech will move US dollars and see heavy unwinding of carry trade.
TOPGLOV is so close to the deciding time
TG is so close to the deciding time soon. Hope to see, it spikes up from that squeeze to 715x2 - 615 = ,,,
that green BUY is the mid pt of this downward staircase. the 2nd half down was due to courtesy of vaccine news with shocking >90% effective followed by 94.5%.
THE LESS THE BETTER - Clearer Picture on Topglove ChartWEEKLY
We get many TA stating that its a double top. Yes its clear that its a double top on a Shorter time frame
When we look at a weekly timeframe which paints a stronger picture, we have already ended with the double top drop or it has yet to happen
DOUBLE TOPS
If we were to say its a double top, traders would have already exited at 7.4x
WHY ?
From the weekly timeframe, the double tops Pullback would hold much more weight if touches the lower wick of other candles
hence Double Tops are well formed.
if everyone looks at double tops, The double tops should be ending by this week or the next week where reversal candle has shown.
DOUBLE TOPS THAT YET TO BREAK FROM THE PULLBACK
Where many might be wondering, when will topglove break lower to Rm3. From the candles, for 3 weeks Topglove has been hovering at D1
D1 is a well respected demand zone.
Topglove has tested to break lower but we will need to see the next weekly/daily candle.
Worst case Scenario. The next stronger demand zone would be at D2 .... no stock will drop forever, there will always be a technical rebound.
JPMORGAN also did not mentioned when 3.50 will come, for some obvious reason we all know that it will come when the ASP price starts to decrease. Not even JPMorgan could tell when will it come. JPMorgan is right but do you think it will drop straight to 3 tomorrow or next month ?
The view is up to yours, Check your time frames.. Higher timeframes has much clearer and better picture of where topglove is going.
Do your homework on TA and FA, The lesser the indicator & lines the better your view
May the trend be with you !
*NOTE**
not a buy sell call, please do your homework and chart and analysis is purely based on personal opinion and experience
TOPGLOV sell off seems likelyCNA - "Malaysia's Top Glove reports death of worker due to COVID-19, first since outbreak at firm."
basic market cycle lined up with fundementals, if I'm wrong the market's wrong
TOPGLOV Stock BUY/LONG IDEA THOSE WHO WANNA BUY TOPGLOVE STOCK, WAIT FOR THE PRICE TO GO IN THIS AREA BEFORE BUYING, IF PRICE CONTINUES GOING UPWARD, WE WAIT FOR RETRACEMENT
TOPGLOV - The Beast is coming back soonTopglov results beat all sell-side consensus. As shown, TopGlov issue is never about fundamentals and earnings. Their problem has been the PR/Corporate image impact due to Covid-19 and the labor issue.
After declaring a quarterly dividend, at the current price, the yield is around 2.3%, what's next!? Perhaps, Christmas rally or CNY Ang Pao? HAHAHAA :)
Not a buy call, however as a good investor, it is always wise to buy the dip and hold.
All the best!
TOPGLOV 09122020TG been sideways at support zone 6.50-7.00.. seeing potential bounce to 7.50
break above 7.50 can go to 8.
TOPGLOV A BEARISH BUY !DAILY
In daily chart, Topglov consolidates on the red area, we can see strong demand on rm6.XX ,
We call a buy as Vaccine news, Windfall tax, CBP news, Migrant worker, foreign labour has all priced in
We will see Topglov to hover at rm6 for roughly around another week before trend going bullish again
We might see topglove to be bullish around 2021 !
Checkout the Index Idea for Healthcare Sector:
THE BEAR IS LOSING ITS MOMENTUM !
RSI: Shows it rebounded on oversold area: BUY
MACD: Shows a flat Buy cross, a sign where Topglov is still in accumulation phase !
Buy: Rm6.60
Stop Loss: Rm6 - Rm5.9X
Upside: +RM2
