D07 trade ideas
Bearish Bat Completed In DOW Industrials Using DIA As ProxyThis is the second DOW sell chart I am submitting. The first was daily, this one is HOURLY. My suggestion is that if you have an idea for an hour chart, do a fractal at least three times longer in time duration (i.e. one hour equals three hour fractal). The purpose of this submission is to see if the hourly chart is close to the daily. In this case they are. With the DOW positive for the year 2016, a Bearish Bat formation has completed. Here is the step by step setup: A 50% retracement of Impulse leg X to A is DOW 16,580; the C to B impulse leg approximated a point D downward reversal at 17,032 (a Fibonacci 1.618 level); the X to A impulse leg suggested a downward reversal at 17,235 (a Fibonacci .786 level); the DOW reversal at point D went slightly higher, but has started to sell down and should retrace to the .786 level of the C to D impulse leg, or 15,989 (red line on chart). If support fails in this area, a 1.618 retracement is approximately 14,237. The current RSI is coming off its highest levels of 2016, suggesting an extremely overbought condition. I did not include RSI in this submission because the bearish formation is the key of this work. Also, the end of impulse leg C to D is the fifth lower top for the DOW dating back to November of 2015. I believe this is yet another bearish confirmation. I do own DOG, as well as SH and RWM. These three issues rise as the DOW 30, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 fall. Needless to say I think the markets are setting up for some large declines. I offer these suggestions for your consideration. Best regards, Don.
DOW JONES Industrials Selloff Forecast (DIA As Proxy): The SetupWith the DOW positive for the year 2016, a Bearish Bat formation is developing. Here is the step by step setup: A 50% retracement of Impulse leg X to A is DOW 16,576; the C to B impulse leg approximated a point D downward reversal at 17,150 (a Fibonacci 1.618 level); the X to A impulse leg suggested a downward reversal at 17,233 (a Fibonacci .786 level); the DOW reversal at point D went slightly higher, but should retrace to the .786 level of the C to D impulse leg, or 15,976. If support fails in this area, a 1.618 retracement is approximately 14,231. The current RSI is coming off its highest levels of 2016, suggesting an extremely overbought condition. I do own DOG, as well as SH and RWM. These three issues rise as the DOW 30, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 fall. Needless to say I think the markets are setting up for some large declines. All of my technical work is based on daily chart time calculations. I offer these suggestions for your consideration. Best regards, Don.
$DIA big week ahead, could attempt breakout or continue wedgeNeutral right now, waiting to see if this stays in the wedge or breaks to the upside.
DIA approaching first Major resistanceDIA will approach its first major resistance around 176.6. That's about another 100 points higher. If it breaks that level, we could be changing market directions, but as of now, we still have a lower high.
Buying shares from UK to Colombia for exports results:This spread of data helps investors know what they are like to get back based upon the 5 year historical data to currently now for when investing into the company hence doing a detailed analysis. In the future better to do future contracts via Barclays Bank as share prices varies using ETFs as high volatility occurs so beta value is 1.08 currently yet higher risk higher reward applies here. However, Barclays company uses CAFE as another wway to invest but dependent upon the fund Manager to invest as they desire using future contracts on monthly basis which means lower risk and reaping profits when preferred.
Composite Monthly - Green or Red Hammer?A composite of major indices funds - DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM - suggests Monday's close could be pivotal in the final result of this month's candlestick. Presently barely green. Individual indices all have similar patterns. Took a look back to see how similar candlesticks played out, whether green or red...
Indices are in a pivot for continuing to new ATHs this year, or visiting support at their respective 38.2% retraces.
Obviously one can't trade this chart.
Supply resistance levels shown. Markets will go down.Supply resistance levels shown. Markets will go down.
DIA short A whole lot of resistance above us. not much support below us . I think we move lower next week. but of course with fed intervention anything can happen. I am position into puts on a couple stocks and rather heavily. I have planned my trade and am trading my plan. I feel they will pay off well. but tuesday will tell all. good luck everyone.
DIA MARCH 18TH IRON CONDORBecause my layered on setups in SPY are getting "a little busy" as far as number of setups on and their location strike-wise, I figured I'd briefly move my iron condoring to DIA for a little while to allow my SPY setups to clean themselves up (one way or another).
Here's a March 18h setup:
DIA March 18th 142/146/170/174 iron condor
Probability of Profit %: 67%
Max Profit: $96/contract
Buying Power Effect: $304/contract
Notes: Look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit. Should one side near max profit, roll the entire spread/wing approaching max profit toward current price within the same expiration if it is reasonably profitable to do so. With these particular setups in index ETF's where vol skew is involved, I generally do any call side roll to not greater than the edge of the expected move on the call side (the 75% probability OTM strike) and any put side roll to the 1 SD line (the 84% probability OTM strike).
On a test of a side, look to roll the tested side out at the same strikes and sell an oppositional side against the rolled out side for a credit greater than what it cost to roll out the tested side. (This frequently requires looking at a number of different expirations to see what works best in the individual setup's circumstance). I generally do this no later than 3 or 4 DTE.
$DIA $DJIA bounces off of 1st Yearly Support. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index $DJIA $DIA found support right on the YearlyS1 Pivot point. This was the spot to cover remaining shorts and look for new short term long opportunities. That is what one of the Pivots we use at PivotalPivots.com
Standing On the Precipice - DOW EditionThis post is very similar to my previous post regarding SPY (See "Links to Related Posts" below). I am very bearish on the DOW overall and I think we will see that translate into selloffs of DIA to retest the $171.00 level. The trading during the shortened New Years week was lower in volume, but still indicative of an overall bearish sentiment in the market. My forecast is that Monday or Tuesday may see DIA hovering around the $172.50 level before retreating even further to $171.00 later in the week. There is not much propping up the DOW at this point and I feel like we are on the precipice of another major selloff like we saw in August, with lower highs and lower lows preceding a breakdown to the $160's.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Candle: Solid Red Candle (Bearish-Sellers had control of the market all of last Wednesday and most of Thursday)
Volume: Increasing selling volume (Bearish)
Stochastic (Slow): %D hovering around 30-40, %K descending, but greater than %D (Bearish-Sellers have control of the market)
MACD: Histogram very slightly positive, but falling back quickly towards 0, MACD moving towards a crossover of signal (Very Bearish)
Overall Trend: Downward-20 day EMA (Blue Line) nearing a crossover of 200 day EMA (Blue Circles) (Bearish)
Agree? Disagree? Any feedback would be greatly appreciated! Thanks, and happy trading!
a possible move in Dow Jones Index - and how to tradewhy long? i see a bullish trend by the used moving averages and a bullish flag - if the last high at 17966 is hit when i prefere to go long with a protective stop at 50 % Retracement an a 1. target at the 1.61,8 % extension.
