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D07 trade ideas

Rising WedgeRising Wedge noted. The wedge is also noted on the hourly timeframe. Both trendlines (orange) slope up and narrow at the apex. This pattern is not valid until the bottom line is broken and is considered a bearish signal. This pattern shows up in charts when the price moves upward with pivot highs and lows converging toward a single point known as the apex. The rising wedge is a technical chart pattern used to identify possible trend reversals. The pattern appears as an upward-sloping price chart featuring two converging trendlines. It is usually accompanied by decreasing trading volume. Wedges can either form in the rising or falling direction. A rising wedge is often considered a bearish chart pattern that indicates a potential breakout to the downside. No recommendation
AMEX:DIA
by lauralea
2
Trade Idea: Defined Risk Options Setups to Short the DIAmondsWith the DIA at fairly long-term overhead resistance, I thought I'd set out how I'd potentially take a bearish assumption directional shot using a defined risk options setup where the max loss is known from the outset. There are several ways to go about this: 1. Short Call Vertical Buy the September 15th 351 call and sell the September 15th 346 call, resulting in a five wide spread for a 2.70 ($270) credit. Max profit is realized on a finish below the short call strike at 346; max loss, on a finish above 351. Metrics: Max Loss: 2.30 ($230) Max Profit: The width of the spread (5.00) minus the credit received (2.30) or 2.70 ($270). Break Even: 348.70 Probability of Profit: 55% ROC %: 117% at max; 58.7% at 50% max. Delta/Theta: -12.03 delta, .79 theta Variations: 1) Go farther out-of-the-money with your spread, giving yourself more room to be wrong, with the trade-off being a smaller credit received and a lower ROC %-age. Example: September 15th 356/361 short call vertical, 1.09 ($109) credit on buying power effect of 3.91 ($391) (which is also your max loss). 27.9% at 50% max; 13.9% at 50% max; -10.02 delta, 1.14 theta. Max loss is realized on a finish below the short option leg of the setup (i.e., 356). 2) Widen the at-the-money spread, but to not more than a risk one/make one setup. Example: September 15th 346/354 Short Call Vertical, 3.95 credit on buying power effect of 4.05 ($405) (which is your max loss). 97.5% ROC at max; 48.8% at 50% max. -19.54 delta, 1.42 theta. Here, you're risking 4.05 to make 3.95, which is about as close to a risk one/make one setup as you can get. If you look at the delta metrics of each as an indicator of how bearish your assumption is, the out-of-the-money spread has the lowest of the bearish assumptions at -10.02 delta; the risk/one make one 8-wide 346/354, the greatest at -19.54. Generally speaking, the setup should match your assumption somewhat, so if you're presumably less confident of a retreat from this level, then you should probably go with the out-of-the money spread; more confident, with the wider, at-the-money spread. 2. Long Put Vertical Buy the September 15th 349 put and sell the September 15th 343 put, resulting in a 6-wide spread for which you pay a 2.50 debit (which is your max loss). Max profit is realized on a finish below 343; max loss on a finish above 349. Metrics: Max Loss: 2.50 ($250) Max Profit: 3.50 ($350) Break Even: 346.50 Probability of Profit: 50% ROC %-age: 140% at max; 70% at 50% max Delta/Theta: -17.95/.72 Variations: As with the short call vertical, you can naturally widen the spread, with my preference being to keep the ROC %-age metrics around a risk one to make one. 3. Long Put Diagonal Buy the September 15th -90 delta 369 put and sell the +30 delta August 18th 339 for a 21.75 ($2175) debit, resulting in a 30-wide calendarized* spread. Max Loss: 21.75 ($2175) Max Profit: 8.25 ($825) Break Even: 347.25 Probability of Profit: 54% ROC %-age: 37.9% at max; 19.0% at 50% max. Delta/Theta: -60.65/2.99 A couple of things stand out about this setup. First, look at the short delta; it's bigly at -60+. Second, look at the price tag; it's also bigly relative to the other setups. That being said, the max profit potential is also greater than the other setups, but would require a finish below the short leg at 369. It does, however, have one additional advantageous element, and that is its calendarization which allows you to roll out the short option leg for additional credit should the setup not work out immediately. This results in a reduction in cost basis for the setup, improves your break even and therefore your profit potential. On a more practical level, I personally don't look to get max profit out of this type of setup. I look to take profit at 10% of what I put it on for and then move on. Here, that would be around $220 or so; given the setup's delta, that would require a move of around 4 handles or so to the downside, which wouldn't be much to ask given price action in the underlying. 4. Zebra**/Put Ratio Spread Buy 2 x the September 15th -75 delta 375 puts (for a total of -150 delta) and sell 1 x the +50 delta put at the 345 for a 13.65 ($1365) debit. Max loss is realized on a finish above 375; max profit isn't defined. Metrics: Max Loss: 13.65 ($1365) Max Profit: Undefined*** Break Even: 347.35 Probability of Profit: 53% Delta/Theta: -101.19/-1.23 As with the long put diagonal, the short delta is bigly -- the biggest of all the setups at -100, so if the underlying moves down one handle, the setup will be in profit by 1.00 ($100). Conversely, if it moves 1.00 to the upside, it will be in the red by 1.00, at least at the outset, when its dynamic delta remains at -100. Since this setup does not reach a "max," taking profit is somewhat subjective. As with the long put diagonal, I generally take profit at 10% of what I put it on for and move on. $136 in profit isn't particularly compelling here, so I could see looking to take profit on movement toward the most recent swing low at 337, which would result in 8 handles or so of -100 delta profit ($800). An added disadvantage to hanging out in this setup for too long for "moar" is that there is some degree of assignment risk if the short put goes deep in-the-money, particularly if it does that toward expiry. 5. High Probability of Touch Long Put Buy the September 15th 342 Long Put for a 4.55 ($455) debit Metrics: Max Loss: 4.55 ($455) Max Profit: Undefined Probability of Profit: 32% Break Even: 337.45 Delta/Theta: -40.72/-4.52 I generally don't do standalone longs for a number of reasons I won't get into here, but thought I'd set out some kind of common sense approach that utilizes one of the metrics most traders that seem inclined to use this approach don't discuss (or aren't aware of) and its "Probability of Touch" -- the likelihood that price will "touch" the strike at some point during the life of the contract. The general rule of thumb is that POT is about 2 times the delta of the strike. Given the fact that this is a -40 delta strike, the POT is around 80%, implying that the options market is pricing in about an 80% probability that price will touch the 342 strike at some point during the life of the contract. * -- It's "calendarized" because one leg is in a different expiry than the other, as compared to the short call and long put verticals, above, where both legs are in the same expiry. ** -- A "Zebra" is a "zero extrinsic back ratio" spread with the short option legs paying for all of the extrinsic in the longs, resulting in an at-the-money break even. *** -- It's technically 347.35 ($34,735), but that assumes DIA goes to zero, which (just taking a stab here) probably isn't going to happen.
AMEX:DIAShort
by NaughtyPines
2
Dow Jones Industrial Average: To 36000 Epic Milestone and BeyondDow 36,000: A New Strategy to Profit from Coming Stock Market Growth is a book published on October 1, 1999 by columnist James C. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett in which they argued that stocks were significantly undervalued in 1999 and came to the conclusion that the market will grow 4 times, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI will rise to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004. The most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: they are cheap... -  Glassman and Hasset. 1999. "Introduction". Dow 36000 However, life has made its own adjustments, and the era of "irrational optimism" (as it always happens) - came to its inevitable end. In January 2000, just about three months later the publication of the book, the Dow Jones Index reached a record high of 11,750.28 points, which subsequently remained unbeaten for the next 6 plus years. In the early 2000s, the Index fell steadily after the dot-com technology bubble burst. And after the well-known bang on the American Twin Towers happened on September 11, 2001, the Dow Jones index fell even more, reaching a minimum of 7286.27 points by October 2002. Financial crisis of 2007-09 sent the Dow Jones to even lower levels, which ultimately freed the hands of Congress and the US Treasury to uncover the money bazooka through raising national debt limits. In general, only after the second attempt to fix above DJIA 10-year moving average in the third quarter of 2011, the Dow was able to rise in a half of the predicted path (from about 10,000 to 36,000 points). Just 18 years later to the publication, in October 2017, - Dow reached milestone of 23,000 points, and the final achievement of the desired mark of 36,000 points took place only in December 2021. However, by that time just few people remembered this book and its authors, who were later called "charlatans". Given that over the 22-year period since the publication of the book, consumer spending in the US ( FRED:PCE ) has increased by more than 2.5 times overall; the prices of gasoline, oil, wheat, corn, and sugar have more than tripled, and the prices of metals such as copper and gold have risen 5 to 7 times. Closer to today's reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to follow the main uptrend trajectory formed by the US recovery from the 2007-09 Housing crisis. Dow stays for nowadays above its 10-year simple moving average that supported the index both in the third quarter of 2011 and at the time of Covid- 19 market collapse in the first quarter of 2020. At the moment Dow is being above the marked moving average by about 36.45%. Technical resistance is considered as a range of 34,000 - 34,500 points, that lost in the first quarter of 2022. Attempts to return above this strong level have been overshadowed for several months - either by a banking collapse, and later by aggravated talk about the crisis of the US national debt ceiling. In such scenarios, coupled with inflation, which remains significantly above the target level of 2 percent, despite repeated attempts to curb it by the Federal Reserve , the 36,000th milestone can for quite a long time, for a decade or even a year and a half, become a growth constraint of the world economy for quite a long time - for a decade or even fifteen years. Key facts about the Dow Jones Industrial Average: 👉 Technical chart provided by ETF AMEX:DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, generally in line with the price and yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (100:1 ratio). 👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJ:DJI ) is made up of 30 price-weighted blue-chip components of US stocks. 👉 DJIA is the oldest barometer of the US stock market, the flag and the logo of capitalism, and the most widely quoted indicator of the activity of the US stock market and world economy.
AMEX:DIA
by Pandorra
1
DIA - Horizontal Trend Channel🔹DIA is breakout horizontal trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹DIA has marginally broken up through resistance at 341. 🔹Overall assessed as technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:DIALong
by wavepoint99
DJIA Dow Jones in huge symm triangle - ready for massive moveThe DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is in a huge symmetrical triangle and is poised for a massive move either up or down. There is no more space within the triangle to remain undecided about the direction of the move. Both the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are near the centerline, confirming that we are ready for a move. However, everyone is wondering which direction it will be. In my humble opinion, based on chart analysis and the current economic disaster we are facing, the move is highly likely to be to the downside. Although a symmetrical triangle is typically a continuation pattern and a breakout above the upper line suggests a long position should be taken, it can also be traded to the downside. Why do I think it will break down, even though the chances are 50-50? Well, in my extended analysis, I also consider the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA). There is no chance for the DJIA to move up in a future bull market without involvement from the DJTA. If you examine the chart of DJTA, it is also in a symmetrical triangle but is struggling to move from the lower trendline. A healthy move within a triangle would involve bouncing between the upper and lower lines, rather than remaining on one for an extended period. In this case, DJTA is sitting on the lower line and cannot move. Furthermore, DJTA hasn't shown much movement in the last four months, or rather, it has been declining while the market is being propped up by the AI hype. Therefore, I give a 70% chance for both DJIA and DJTA to drop down from their symmetrical triangles and begin a several-month decline. I will change my opinion only if DJIA and DJTA break the upper line on high volume and close above it. Otherwise, the market will experience a significant and rapid decline.
AMEX:DIA
by Consistent_Trades
1
2023 support & resistanceIt's important to know where the technical levels are when investing / trading. The most basic technical principal is support and resistance levels. Stock prices move because of the overall supply and demand of all market participants combined. There is a multitude of catalysts that can affect price action, such as newsworthy current events, fundamental earnings, seasonal patterns or macroeconomics. It's essential to know your numbers to accurately read charts. The practical application of understanding support & resistance levels guides an investor / trader the likely probability of accurately buying or selling at the right price. These support & resistance levels can vary from simple to complex. There are horizontal levels, diagonal uptrend / downtrend levels, MA levels, broad range levels, R3, R2, R1, pivot, S1, S2, S3 Levels. Plus, the time frame can be short term, long term or a combination of time frames long or short analysis. The probability of support & resistance levels is accurate until there is a sustained breakout or breakdown, because market prices always change over time. To keep things basic, here's the 2023 support & resistance levels for DIA, SPY, QQQ & IWM on the 1-week (regular hours) chart 2021 to date view. 2023 support & resistance DIA R = 343.53 S = 314.97 SPY R = 418.31 S = 377.83 QQQ R = 321.63 S = 260.34 IWM R = 199.26 S = 167.46
AMEX:DIA
by Options360
Entering SDOW is the ideaDIA daily went to a sell, waiting for price action to approach the P.O.M.O Position of maximum opportunity on DIA. With such a nice risk reward why not. My idea would be to play it via SDOW This short is riskier, Vix 1hr and 15min are R/R. DIA and SPY 1hrs went green. You just want to note the daily went to sell on DIA, waiting for it to retrace up to the pomo'y area for a small risk trade. Overall trading this way (waiting for a pomo that meets your bias) is about like a sore peter, you just can't beat it. AMEX:SDOW AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY
AMEX:DIAShort
by lightningfreek
Dow Jones - DIA DJIBoy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic. Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality. This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures. We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly. This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
AMEX:DIAShort
by WorldEconomics
8
Non-farm payroll coming out tomorrow while market close Chart: SPX daily and 15 mins From tech side of analysis, SPX gave a hammer doji on daily chart, which kinda makes today's trade become very hard. Non-farm payroll and unemployment data will release tomorrow while market close, therefore, I don't think traders will do too much to bet the data and holding positions over weekend. Therefore, with no more important economic data release, SPX will likely move side way with maybe only 10 points range. So, instead of take part in this "hard trade", I prefer to choose easier one. Chart: DIA daily and 15 mins On daily chart, the DIA is still on relatively high level compare the SPY and Qs. and it's keep making lower highs and lower lows in last couple weeks. And recent pull up could not help the DIA break the prior highs, and yesterday gave an insideday pattern on daily chart, with huge extension on 8&21 EMA. Therefore, I will try to short some DIA for day trade. From 15 mins chart, 332ish level was prior 4 hr support level, so, I am expecting some tech buyers possibly will enter here.
AMEX:DIA
by SoundsgoodTFtalks