Entering SDOW is the ideaDIA daily went to a sell, waiting for price action to approach the P.O.M.O Position of maximum opportunity on DIA. With such a nice risk reward why not. My idea would be to play it via SDOW
This short is riskier, Vix 1hr and 15min are R/R. DIA and SPY 1hrs went green. You just want to note the daily went to sell on DIA, waiting for it to retrace up to the pomo'y area for a small risk trade.
Overall trading this way (waiting for a pomo that meets your bias) is about like a sore peter, you just can't beat it.
AMEX:SDOW
AMEX:DIA
AMEX:SPY
D07 trade ideas
Dow Jones - DIA DJIBoy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic.
Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality.
This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures.
We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly.
This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
Non-farm payroll coming out tomorrow while market close
Chart: SPX daily and 15 mins
From tech side of analysis, SPX gave a hammer doji on daily chart, which kinda makes today's trade become very hard. Non-farm payroll and unemployment data will release tomorrow while market close, therefore, I don't think traders will do too much to bet the data and holding positions over weekend. Therefore, with no more important economic data release, SPX will likely move side way with maybe only 10 points range. So, instead of take part in this "hard trade", I prefer to choose easier one.
Chart: DIA daily and 15 mins
On daily chart, the DIA is still on relatively high level compare the SPY and Qs. and it's keep making lower highs and lower lows in last couple weeks. And recent pull up could not help the DIA break the prior highs, and yesterday gave an insideday pattern on daily chart, with huge extension on 8&21 EMA. Therefore, I will try to short some DIA for day trade. From 15 mins chart, 332ish level was prior 4 hr support level, so, I am expecting some tech buyers possibly will enter here.
Opening (IRA): DIA June 16th 285 Short Put... for a 2.99 credit.
Comments: I don't usually play DIA because its volatility is generally lower than the rest of the majors (which is why I'm having to go out to June to get paid for a <16 delta short put). My IWM, QQQ, and SPY positions are getting somewhat crowded here, so just putting a smidge on. As usual, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Short 08/03/23 DIAPrice broke a triangle after going sideways, went below the 100 MA, retested, and is now forming a bearish engulfing candle
Asset and Time frame - DIA, Daily-Weekly
Entry Price - 327.39
Exit(Stop Loss) -336.79
Exit(Take Profit) - 293.65
Technical Analysis - Price broke a contracting triangle, made a few undecisive doji candles near the 100 MA, then closed below it, now, price action has retested the triangle and is forming a bearish engulfing candle(depending on the close of the candle), the prior daily candle closed below the daily 100MA
Good luck to all of us
DJIA daily - time for bear pull backDJIA has found support at the BigRed level, just as I analyzed in the last report. It bounced back strongly and nicely and is now close to a resistance area. We will have to wait and see what it does next, but for now, it seems more likely to experience a bear pullback than a bullish pattern.
Volume does not confirm the price action, as it hasn't moved above 20 days average volume. Therefore, this move is considered bearish or a fake move.
The price bounced from the 200-day MA, which is a bullish sign, but it is still below the rest of the major MAs, which is bearish.
The RSI is neutral, and the MACD histogram is ticking a smaller red tick, which could be a bullish sign. The MACD line is trying to cross above the signal line, but both lines are below the zero line, so we still need to wait to determine if it is bullish.
Overall: DJIA broke down from a symmetrical triangle and found support, which is a common pattern. Prices tend to test prior support levels before continuing in the direction of the breakout, in this case, the bearish direction. The price is very close to the 20 and 50-day MAs, which will act as resistance. Additionally, there is a trendline from the symmetrical triangle, which will also act as resistance. Therefore, for bulls, they need to gather strength and break through that resistance with significant volume before I can say it is bullish and we could go up.
Otherwise, I will see this only as a textbook bear pullback after a pattern break and would call a drop below the BigRed level almost certain in the next two weeks.
The sell signal would be flipped to the buy signal only if we cross that resistance area with a strong volume.
Wave C of B low is in place wave C up has startedThe chart posted has now pulled back to the Target low and cycles are now Up and in full force wave C up has two targets 1st is 35185 in the Dow the 2 nd is the retest of the old high . into late march21 to alt date april 2nd from that high the second leg of the super cycle Bear market should see a Crash phase with No Place to Hide. Best of trades WAVETIMER
DOW - Any relief rally is guilty until proven otherwise !Seems to me like this could unfold as a complexe correction if bulls are to remain in power longer term.
We could see soon a move up but if it stays sideways it's most likely going to be a wave (b) of higher degree Y imho.
Look for individual names showing relative strength right now, those are most likely to be the next big leaders.
Symmetrical TrianglePrice is beneath the bottom line of the triangle so support has been broken.
Possible M pattern forming.
Price is just above the .236 of the trend up, so in the scheme of things this has not really lost too much ground even though it feels like it has. The intermittent rallies up are making this a very slow process.
No recommendation.
″ I haven’t seen anything all day. I have been trying to climb this rock.”
$DIA$DIA Long Trade Idea
$DIA is likely to bounce off at retest of 200 SMA to upside to continue movement with in the triangle.
My trade plan: Entry 325.65, Stop loss 321.1, Profit exit 339.5 (at top of the pattern and max volume in fixed range volume profile) Risk/Reward 3.03
Not an investment or trade recommendation. Do your own due diligence
Learn to STRATEGICALLY take SOME profits $DIA exampleInvestments tend to fall in value FASTER than increase
(even in bull markets)
IMO always take profits STRATEGICALLY
This works for ALL investments that have tried it on including, but not limited to Crypto, , Commodities, Bond Yields, and Currencies
AVG
1-2 = 3 weeks
2-3 = WEEK!
3-4 = Almost month
4-5 = WEEK!
5-6 = 3 weeks
6-7 = WEEK!
Example $DIA
Use Resistance & Support levels to help with #INVESTING
Warning, Warning, Warning! Major drop ahead.DJIA has broken below the symmetrical triangle, indicating the end of the bull market. The price has dropped below the 50-day moving average and trend line with no significant support acting at all. This suggests a weak market with no real buyers while sellers are expected to enter soon. Smart traders are exiting the market, while most retail traders will panic and sell along with algorithmic trading systems after the significant support line is breached, aka BigRed.
The price is currently below all major moving averages, except for the BigRed.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining significantly, indicating a negative trend.
The MACD histogram is also showing a strong downward trend, with the MACD line expected to fall below the zero line in the coming days.
Overall: after such a strong drop below a significant support line, it is unlikely for DJIA to recover or rebound. Bears are currently taking control, and the price drop could be rapid. However, it is expected that the price will retest the trend line, as it typically acts as prior support before turning into resistance. The BigRed may act as a support, but it is not guaranteed to be strong support.
From a bullish perspective, traders would need to step in and buy today, pushing the price back into the symmetrical triangle. If this occurs, it would indicate a false breakout, and the market could be ready to explode to the upside. However, the probability of this scenario is below 20%.
DJIA fall out of the symmetrical triangle, sell signal confirmedDJIA was in for a long long time in this huge symmetrical triangle and wasn't able to move in any direction. Now it's finally dropped out of it. Will it stay out and have a huge red day, we will see today, on Friday.
Volume does confirm price action as it is much bigger on drop day, however, it is still below 20 days average volume.
It is below 8 and 20 days MA but still above 50 and 200 days MA which will likely change today. 50 days mMA is DJIA's last support zone before it declared drop to the big red with almost certain.
RSI is neutral.
MACD ticking lower while the MACD line did cross below the signal line which is very bearish and signals a new trend is forming.
Overall: not too many things to say here. 50 days MA will be DJIA's last support line before major drops are triggered. It is less likely support will hold and it is likely we will test Bigred which should provide some support zone. From the bullish perspective only a close above 344 only the daily candles would be bullish and would we would be able to say now it is a confirmed bull market in DJIA. The possibility of that is only 10%.