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ES3 trade ideas

Short down phase with possible reboundStarting off with the daily, PPM1 is still solidly in trend mode, which means the 10SMA will still act as a strong support initially. That said, the trajectory of PPM1 is still down. However PPM2 is predicted to be rising. Hence even if the 10SMA is breached, the 21SMA is likely to hold the line. PPM3 is not giving any useful info for now as it is trendless and predicted to stay trendless for the time being. Moving over to the weekly, all 3 PPMs are in uptrend, though PPMs 1 and 2 are below their derivatives. Expect a breach of their respective SMAs but I'm not expecting any major downturn any time soon. The angle of attack of the 21SMA is still significant, hence it is likely to maintain that trend for the next 2 to 3 bars unless something drastic happens to the price.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Beware bear trapOnce bitten twice shy. As much as the weekly and daily charts look depressing, it doesn't change the fact that the weekly PPMs are all still strongly in uptrend. Starting at the daily, PPMs 1 and 3 are under their derivatives and not in any trend. Algo also says more of the same. However PPM2 is still in between the 2 derivatives (though not for long it seems) so we may see some action around the 21SMA for a bit. Looking over to the weekly chart, we may test the 10SMA by the looks of the PPM1. However it is still likely to hold for now. The angle of attack of all 3 SMAs are too positive for a sudden drop anytime soon. No fib targets in play for now so my guess is to test the 10SMA on the weekly before we see where things go.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Clear path ahead?Since the last update, while the price did come down to hit the 10SMA, it didn't start a downtrend. It went back up instead. Now looking forward, the daily is once again showing signs of weakness. Looking at the PPM 1, though it is still in trend mode, the algo seems to suggest a lost in momentum. PPM 3 also seems to suggest a lost in momentum although from a no trend mode. We could see a break of the 10SMA into the 40SMA before bouncing back up again. Why I say bouncing back up again is because the weekly PPMs are still all in uptrend. Hence it is difficult to suggest otherwise as last time. In fact, the 40SMA on the daily is similar in position to the 10SMA on the weekly at this point in time, so it could materialize this way over the next few sessions.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
And...Down we goMomentum is lost on the daily chart. After floundering around for so long at the peak, price has started to come down. While the daily PPMs are still not in a downtrend, they are all below their derivatives. This means weakness in the momentum. It is quite likely that the 40SMA at 3.3614 will not act as much support for the price in the coming days. The algo is still predicting its downward momentum to continue. Moving on to the weekly chart, it looks like the top is clearly in. However although PPM1 has just gone below its 1st derivative, it is still clearly in an uptrend. Hence my guess is the 10SMA at 3.3534 will likely hold for the 1st bounce. Hence I'll be looking for the price to go past 3.3614 down to 3.3534 before stopping and hovering around there for the week.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
2
Weekly momentum not looking goodThe daily chart today shows a loss of momentum with all the PPMs trendless and their algos pointing to the downside. Furthermore, price has just gone below the 10SMA. This is somehow to be expected as the PPM1 is below its 2 derivatives. I doubt the price can go much above the 10SMA in the near future. PPMs 2 and 3 are also surprisingly under their 2 derivatives. This means the daily chart has likely peaked and is likely going to pull back for now. Moving on to the weekly chart, we are seeing 2 weekly candles in a row that look like gravestone dojis. Even though PPMs 1 and 2 are still in uptrend, these 2 previous candles look ominous. Superstitions aside, the fact that PPMs 1 and 2 are still above their 2 derivatives means the uptrend is still somewhat in play. The daily chart may be bearish but the weekly 10SMA is still likely to hold, though that's quite a ways down from the current price. I still can't say if it has topped on the weekly, we will have to see how the daily plays out first. Next week will be important for the bulls to put in their last stand.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Not much has changedNot much has changed since the last update. As the PPMs start to show a loss of momentum, the price starts tapering off. The upward momentum of price has been stopped. Today's rise seems to have broken above the trading range, but I'm not sure if it can continue its momentum upwards for too much longer. The PPMs on the daily chart show none in trend. The weekly chart though shows PPMs 1 and 2 still in trend but heading downwards. Of course, the markets can continue an upwards trend longer than you expect it. But to me, it seems frothy as of now. It may hit the weekly high fib target of 3.43 before anything else happens. But it may be a slow crawl there.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Don't get too happyDaily chart looks like its going to start another run up with the algos on the SMAs looking positively sloped. However looking down at the PPMs tell a different story. PPMs 1 and 2 are still in trend mode, however note that PPM1 is below its 1st derivative so while price can still continue to go up, it looks to be a wealth transfer. PPM2 is still going strong though, which means we can still expect the 21SMA to hold when price drops initially. But that too will likely not last as the momentum dies down after that. Looking at the weekly chart, the shorter time frame PPMs are still in trend but already look to be heading down soon. This can also be seen in the SMA lines. The 10SMA is looking to top and start going back down. If this algo plays out, it is likely to dip back down to first test the daily fib target at 3.259. However, this is still too far out to see clearly.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
1
Momentum waningLooking at the daily chart, it seems like the short term momentum is waning a little. PPM1 is on its way down and has just crossed its first derivative, suggesting we have at least temporarily topped. The 10 SMA is also showing downside movement. The PPMs 2 and 3 are still holding on it seems. So are the upward slopes of their respective SMAs. So we could get support at the 21 or the 40 SMAs. Moving on the the weekly chart, things look a little more negative. Looking at the PPM1, momentum is shifting downwards. However it is still at 0.61 - very much in trend. So while it may still hold for a week or 2 to find the top, it seems like the bulk of the move up is done. PPM2 is also looking to head downwards. The trajectory of the 21 SMA is starting to flatten out as well, meaning if price gets there, it is not likely to hold support.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Mixed signalsThe daily chart is currently showing the momentum fading on the PPM1. It looks to be heading down after finding a near term top. As we can see price already trading in a range, it could mean that the market is trying to find a direction. This could either be finding a top or gathering momentum to continue upwards. For more clues, we turn to the weekly chart. We can see that the weekly chart is past the first high fib target of 3.308. Momentum is still likely to be on the upside even though PPM3 is slightly under water (no trend so for now it is irrelevant). PPM1 shows some more upside for the next week or so before dropping off in momentum. This could mean we may try to reach for high fib target 2 at 3.384. Note that even if momentum drops off, as long as we stay in trend mode, there is still potential for price to continue rising to find a top.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Continued upward momentumUpward momentum continues to look stable. when looking at the charts for the next few days. The daily chart still shows stable momentum in PPM1 even as PPM2 and PPM3 are still struggling along. This may mean that the upward momentum will carry on for some time but is prone to suddenly dropping off. Note that PPM1 is only at 0.1928, not exactly a very strong trend. Looking over to the weekly, momentum still points upward for now with PPM1 and PPM2 in uptrend. PPM1 still looks to have more upside and PPM2 looks to be stabilising at this area. So at least for the next 2 weeks or so, generally expect some more upside. Price is already close to hitting the first high fib target of 3.308. If it hits the target this week, we could see a push to the second fib target of 3.384 before momentum runs out of steam. Currently, momentum is projected to run out of steam on the week of 6 May. From there price may top out and look to come back down.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Shallow pullback and higher reboundLooking at the daily chart, it seems momentum is waning. PPM2 can't seem to maintain its position above the first derivative for much longer. Same goes for PPM3. While it seems like its all doom and gloom, note that the PPMs are only hovering around 0, not going into a trend. Looking at the weekly chart though, we see momentum looking to pick up, with PPM1 looking to inch back to trend mode. PPM3 looks to be taking a dip soon though so may need to look out for that. Overall, it seems price has reached a mini top, and may go for a dip over the next few days before resuming its upward trajectory.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Momentum stabilisingMomentum on both daily and weekly charts seem to be stabilising. We start off with the daily where we see PPM1 in trend mode up. Looking at the 10 SMA, it shows a continuous slope up as well. Price could hit the high fib targets above at 3.257 if the momentum boost in the algo for today plays out. PPM2 is also looking to spike up today at the open meaning the 21 SMA is starting to turn around. We move to the weekly where we see the algos on the MAs stabilising and then gradually shifting up. The PPMs are stabilising, though still without and visible trend. That said, the high fib targets have been there for 2 weeks now. If they continue to be there this week, we may see price touch those in the coming weeks.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Momentum recovers?Looking at the weekly chart, we see that while there is no major change in the slower momentums, the faster one looks to be moving back up again. PPM1 is starting to recover some momentum even as it is still in a downtrend. While price looks like it is starting to recover as a result, I'm not convinced of this recovery. However, price has already hit the low fib target of 3.12 and bounced off it to close last week higher. So while I may not expect a full recovery right away, we may have already seen the lows. Daily momentum seems to have fully lost its downtrend. All PPMs are now trendless. And the algos still point to further recovery of momentum followed by a dip slightly down the road. While the 10SMA is not likely to be a good support beneath, the general direction for now should be up.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Downtrend continuesAs the selling continues, it has brought the PPMs 1 and 2 on the daily and the weekly charts into downtrends. While the PPM3 of both daily and weekly charts are still trendless, they are already in negative territory. However, not all hope is lost. The algos on the PPM1 across both charts are looking at a stabilisation in momentum. Weekly PPM1 algo looks to stabilise at this range over the next few weeks, albeit at this level. Hence it is still going to be in downtrend for awhile. This could mean searching for a bottom over the next few weeks. The daily chart is also showing stabilisation of PPMs 1 and 2 followed by a return to 0. This could mean searching for a temporary floor possibly at the first low fib target at 3.096.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Are the lows in?Looking at the PPMs on the weekly chart, it seems like there will be some sort of recovery of weekly short term momentum over the next couple of weeks. PPM1 looks to be slowly recovering, which means momentum to the downside could slow down as it slowly approaches the 0 line. While the lows are still not in, price could be searching for a floor within the next few weeks. However, we still need some time to confirm the validity of the algos. There is still a chance of hitting the low fib target 1 at 3.12. If that fails, watch out for the SXT next week. Looking over to the daily chart, we see some recovery of the PPMs in the algos. However, note that PPM1 is still in downtrend, so I'm not expecting any fast recovery in price yet. Just some stabilisation maybe.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Not the best time to longWhile the daily shows a spike in momentum coming up tomorrow on the PPM1 with a corresponding spike in the 10 SMA, the weekly chart still looks bearish with momentum not yet in downtrend but all underwater. PPM1 on the weekly looks to head further south and the 10 SMA with it. The direction of the longer period SMAs are also looking to only stabilise after possibly April. While this counter is not that prone to "extreme mood swings", do just keep in mind the past 2 week's trading range when deciding to long or short.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Mixed outlookLooking at today's charts, there are mixed outlooks. On one hand, the daily outlook looks slightly more rosy with a spike in momentum being predicted in the coming few days. PPM1 looks to be waiting to pounce. The algo on the 10 SMA is showing the same thing. This can only mean that price is likely to push upwards. However, the weekly chart is still showing signs that over the next 2 weeks, there will be a sudden downturn again. There is an abrupt drop in the algo for 10 SMA and the corresponding PPM1. With the PPMs 2 and 3 being more or less flat and their corresponding SMAs converging downwards, price still seems more likely to go sideways to down for now. Barring the occasional spikes either way like what we saw last week, it should be a slow burn to the downside for the foreseeable future.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Wicked start to the weekAs cautioned last week, we begin the new lunar year with a sell off. There is still more down side expected looking at the weekly chart. All the PPMs are under water, though not in downtrend yet. But the algos on the SMAs are looking down. Algos on PPMs 2 and 3 are pretty flat looking ahead, but not indicating a return to 0 line. PPM1 looks to be headed for more down side in the weeks ahead. The market grid has already turned down again. However the low fib targets are still not moving lower, hence they could be in play sometime over the next few weeks if the selling doesn't let up. On to the daily chart, all the PPMs are also under water but PPM3 is looking to head further down, which means the 40 SMA is likely going to turn slightly negatively sloped. Short term looks like price is going to be more negative than not. More work needs to be done before a reversal is in the cards.
SGX:ES3Short
by tanreu
Stabilization still in the worksFriday's jump while unexpected did not continue in today's opening trade. Hence we could be seeing some more stabilization with possibly a larger range. Algos on the daily PPMs show banding around the 0 line, which means the SMAs will start bunching together, which also means stabilization and range trading for some time. On the weekly chart, momentum looks weak with the algos on the PPMs looking to bring them further down. PPM1 has just gone below trend mode while PPM2 is now in a down trend. If we close today below 3.22, PPM1 could close the day with no trend, that means none of the weekly PPMs are signaling a trend up. The only up side is that the low fib targets have been adjusted higher and are on their 2nd week despite the sell off this morning. Hence I would not be too bearish yet. The floor is not going to collapse, though it is sloping downwards for now.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
StabilizationAs mentioned previously, there is some stabilization going on for now. The daily PPMs are showing some signs of recovery and the algos on the SMAs are slowly turning back up. However, the weekly algos are still contradicting this short term view, with all PPMs and SMAs pointing to a sharp drop in the upcoming weeks. Of course this is subject to daily revisions as the stabilization works its way to the weekly algos. For now though, bulls should keep their stops tight or just sit tight on their hands.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Momentum NosedivesIt seems like momentum is heading south, fast. The algo on the weekly SMAs are already south bound with the 10 SMA being the strongest indicator yet of a train wreck incoming. While the PPMs are still not in a down trend, the algo looking out seems to signal a downside bias for the momentum. On to the daily charts, the PPMs 1 and 2 are already heading down while the PPM 3 is still catching up. That said, the algos on the PPMs are not predicting much more downside momentum. PPM1 is already in down trend mode but the algo is predicting no more further deterioration in momentum and instead a return to no-trend. This explains the abrupt floor beneath the 10 SMA. This means that there might be a relief stabilisation over the next few sessions only for the selling to resume. Bulls to look out for warning signs on the weekly charts. If the signs do not change, the bears will win this race.
SGX:ES3Short
by tanreu