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GSD trade ideas

Something to watch in GLDThis is really early, but I know people like to check on gold and it's been fairly choppy and dull. I attempted an outlook for the year kind of reading on it in April with dates for lows and highs, etc. The results of the dates were off a day or 2 usually, and weren't necessarily reflective of the bigger swings. I will keep playing with this idea though. So, I checked in for an update, and there is something consistent from that reading to today's, and that is that there is a buying opportunity in September. And I also get a consistent low number to watch for, and that is the price of $173-74. (4% from here). There can by some seasonality in the 4th quarter in gold, so this lines up as well. The specific date (plus or minus a couple days) is Sept. 12th. The reading in April was referencing September as the "best buying opportunity", so at least that is consistent. I will set alerts at $175 to keep an eye on things, and may post this idea again closer to the date. In the mean time I suppose you could try to short it because the advice is for multiple days down.
AMEX:GLD
by JenRz
GOLD to OIL prices the RATIO ANALYSIS ( and meaning )GLD is an ETF tracking gold futures prices across a blend of durations. USO is a similar ETF for crude oil. I was interested to see what the ratios look like and considering the trading advise of buy low should I be trading and bartering gold to get oil or viceversa. It is applicable for be because I am in part a commodities trader and has some activities on the leveraged forex market. On the daily chart dressed with a set of two long term anchored VWAP standard deviation lines , and some horizontal static resistance lines added, it is obvous to me that the ratio is currently sitting on the mean VWAP band for support confluent with the lower trendline of the ascending megaphone pattern which is typically considered demostrative of increasing volatility. I conclude that if I am a barterer I should trade my oil for gold. If I have gold only and dry powder I should increase my gold holdings. If I prefer trading oil I should short the market. This is because the ratio is set up to rise. The means that gold will rise or oil will fall or some hybrid combination of that. My entry here is when the volatility on the indicator is green and crosses over the running average. This is a simple demonstration of how charting with TradingView can help a trader make well- grounded and profitable trading decisions while lowering risk and making profits more probable. What do you think of this analysis? What are your agreements or disagreements with it?
AMEX:GLD
by AwesomeAvani
2
GLD is the high volume EFT that is tracking the gold bullrun which started two weeks ago on July 3rd after a downtrend for two months starting on May 2nd. This is not a leveraged ETF as so a bit less volatile than JNUG or GDXU. On the 2H chart, I have added a VWAP band line setup anchored into the pivot high. On my analysis: 1. GLD is ascending through VWAP band lines in a VWAP breakout. 2. Volume is steady 3. The Price Volume Trend Oscillator went from a diminishing negative/red histogram into green on July 5th. 4. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines crossed while under the histogram reversing a descent on July 17th and marking the end of a minor correction of the uptrend then confirmed by those lines crossing the zero-line the following day. I conclude that GLD is set up for a long trade. While others might simply take a trade of stocks I will use call options to take a long position. My target is $190 between the second and third positive standard deviations of the mean VWAP. I will purchase 50 options contracts for about $37 each expiring August 4th. I will hold all of them until July 27th and liquidate half of them at the high of day on that Thursday expecting Friday to be a down day. The remaining 25 contracts will be sold at the rate of 6 contracts per day until the overall position is closed. Overall, I expect to realize 200% in profits over the 12-13 trading days in the trade. I plan for a 15% stop loss and expect the trade to be above break-even with the first stop loss advance which I expect will be on Friday.
AMEX:GLDLong
by AwesomeAvani
GLD , a bullish gold ETF LongGLD on the 4H chart has downtrended for 2 months. However, the supertrend is that of a gradual trend up as shown by the green ascending line. The two indicators point to a reversal. The MACD shows a cross of the K / D lines under a positive histogram and impending cross over the horizontal zero line. The Chris Moody with dual RSI plots shows the RSI on the weekly time frame in black to be trending down from 70 and settling at 50. The daily time frame in blue bottomed at 29 and is now 44. This is a bullish divergence of the RSI as compared with the price trend. Overall I expect a reversal with a trend up targeting $192 which is the approximate pivot high of early May also confluent with two standard deviations above the mean VWAP anchored to 2/1/23. The stop loss is to be set below the ascending support at $176. Accordingly, a potential loss of $2 until the stop loss is raised to break-even once price gets to $182.00. After that, the trade will be both risk and stress free.
AMEX:GLDLong
by AwesomeAvani
GLD - Bullish OutlookIntermediate-term formation pattern appears to be a wave extension completing soon followed by a move higher. Looking for stronger support at the 40 week moving average a few points lower but willing to buy a pilot position at this level. My main GLD position is an Iron Condor option position selling puts at the 165 strike and calls at the 200 strike. Adding shares at this level give some protection should GLD surge above 200 prior to the option position's expiration. Downside risk appears to be down to the 160 level should the Long Term Reverse Head and Shoulders formation build out. More GLD updates should price break lower.
AMEX:GLDLong
by AssetDesign
Gold - War Breaking Out?Many would like to perceive the pause in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve as a bullish take for markets at large. However the forward direction by Powell signals towards the bigger picture; inflation cannot be stopped by the Fed. March 2022, shortly after the invasion of the Donbas region by Russia the Fed began significant hikes in the Discount rate. See comparaison to SPX. This has put pressure on domestic and international markets. As foreign central banks try to follow along with hikes to avoid capital outflows, they have not been able to keep up. The international value of the US Dollar has risen considerably since January 2021, the trend accelerating as flight to quality has driven capital towards the US in the face of war. See below US02-year and US10-year treasuries plotted on the same axis, compared to the US Dollar Index. During this time, the price of gold COMEX:GC1! has made a few rallies towards the 2011 high, relating to geopolitical and sovereign risk. This price level in gold could prove very significant moving forwards. The market has indicated towards a long-term trend. It should be noted, that entities involved in potential geopolitical conflicts will move assets accordingly in advance. It is inevitable that war will continue to escalate, and so long as it does inflation will persist across the globe. In spite of capital flows towards the United States, global scarcity driven by shortages, insurance rate increases, impaired logistics and corrupt governments will continue to erode the domestic value of the dollar. The inflation we have been experiencing is war inflation, and no central bank has the power to stop the reactionary shock in financial markets that occurs when capital must seek cover. There appears to be political turmoil in Russia, but the question unanswered is why? It must be understood, that there is a strong belief in Russia that Putin has been too restrained by only invading the Donbas region. What is being stoked by NATO, is an ethnic conflict. Subtle difference in language and religion separate two relatively new nations, Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv the home of the Russian Orthodox church, established in what was the capital of a greater empire, collapsing in the late 1800s. That is to say, the contested regions in this war are hotbeds for an ethnic conflict. Paramilitary groups in Russia and Ukraine (of which there are many) have quite a well known and gruesome history between them, despite receiving little attention since 2022. With neither government viewed at large as capable, there is a massive tailwind risk with the US' approach to funding. It seems well established by now there is nobody accountable for how the weapons and munitions being shipped to Ukraine are being handled, and Nazism is rampant in the army. In addition to repeated attempts on Putin's life, the US is now discussing giving Zelensky of Ukraine access to nuclear weapons. With a "coup" having now taken place, it must be clear that there is a quickly growing threat of war escalating quickly. No attempts at negotiation have been made by Ukraine, despite massive loss of life on both sides. Therein lies our why. Consider the paramilitary groups are now willing to march against Moscow, what prevents them from marching on Kyiv? The negotiation between them has been settled, a new leader appointed and separation from the Russia government is complete. The dogs of hell let loose. Gold, Silver COMEX:SI1! and mentioned in a previous post, Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! , are all forming lows after making new major highs. Inflation will persist and push the nominal price of gold up, but capital flows will nullify that effect to NY COMEX gold prices, as AMEX:GLD follows. This market is pushing towards a significant breakout, and this will move the price as global markets respond by moving capital. Gold becomes a target for flight to quality at this time. Friday was an ideal major low, the market may continue to make minor lows but a sustained rally to 2000 and beyond should be considered a bullish sign.
AMEX:GLD
by FPS_Denny
GLD Bullish Outlook 06/26-30/2023AMEX:GLD is hot on my watch list as uncertainty in the world markets should cause investors to park their money in gold. AMEX:GLD is down -4% for the quarter and is due for a rebound. Technical Analysis: AMEX:GLD has been consolidating in a falling wedge and is approaching the .618 retrace at 177.24. I lean bullish on AMEX:GLD as long as we don’t break the falling wedge structure and can hold above the gap at 176.18. I am expecting a gap fill to the upside at 181.37. Bears will want to see this falling wedge invalidate with a gap to fill to the downside at 173.80. Upside Targets: 178.75 → 179.84 → 181.08 → 181.97 → 183.21 Downside Targets: 177.78 → 176.82 → 176.20 → 174.83 → 174.46
AMEX:GLD
by peterjames_6
🔥 Why A Bitcoin ETF Is Hyper Bullish: See Gold!There's been a lot of bullish news recently surrounding a potential Bitcoin ETF. This ETF has been filed by both Blackrock and Fidelty. The potential approval of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) has the crypto community buzzing with excitement. A Bitcoin spot ETF could be a game-changer, fueling bullish momentum across the entire crypto market. A Bitcoin spot ETF would simplify the investment process, making Bitcoin more accessible to a broader range of investors. It would eliminate barriers like complex wallets and security concerns, attracting retail and institutional players and driving increased adoption. In order to determine the potential effects on the markets, we can take a look at a more recent approval of a commodity ETF: Gold. As seen on the chart, Gold saw a massive ~310% gain over the span of 6.5 years once the ETF had been approved. It's hard to determine whether BTC will experience a similar growth path, but I think it's quite safe to assume that it's 100% bullish if more people can easily invest in this asset.
AMEX:GLDLong
by FieryTrading
1
GLD - waiting on move higher, no guarantee it comesGLD sits below like what I like to call the pivot band. Draw the flattest MA possible (nearest to zero slope). For upside trigger, the initial trigger would be the flattest MA of lows. I like to use the MA of lows, then the MA of medians then the MA of highs. If price breaks above the MA of lows and doesn't progress but regresses then the MA of medians would then become the trigger. So I have these MAs on the chart and they are sufficiently proximate to consider a break in the next week or so if they oblige. I'll post similar for other markets I follow. If anyone has a market they are watching, TSLA, NVDA, etc. let me know I'll do similar work up.
AMEX:GLDLong
by MAgicTrx