GSD trade ideas
$GLD lower after Friday's pop, return to 180 by Oct ExpirationGLD had a nice pop this week, but overall trend and positioning remains downside. Expecting a drift lower toward 175's put support before bouncing after 9/22 expiration toward 180+ into mid-October expiration. Follows the Gann Fan perfectly.
New bull market in Gold As per my Elliot Wave* analysis, Octobers low may mark the the mid-term bottom for gold and price has started to work on building the right hand side of the cup.
As long as 168 holds, I would expect the price to move towards next important resistance area 194-200 area. Ideally build a hand of the cup after reaching that level and break-out above 194 towards important next targets: 212-224-230.
Also notice the "Mona Lisa" of cup-and-handle pattern in GLD on a monthly time-scale
The symmetry and volume dynamics, that subsides in the handle area, is almost picture perfect.
Trading thesis : I will be looking for price to digest its rally from Oct lows, preferably around 177-180 area, creating a cheat pivot and relatively low risk entry point. This entry, if materializes, may create a good long-term opportunity to build position for the coming 2024 and potentially beyond.
* Important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have a subjective idea about sentiment and overall structural context to support, but not guide, my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
$GLD Gold Has a Double BottomIn technical analysis, a "Double Bottom" pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that typically signifies a potential change in trend from downward to upward. In the context of AMEX:GLD (Gold), spotting a Double Bottom pattern suggests that the asset has tested a support level twice and rebounded, indicating strong buying interest at that price level. This can be interpreted as a sign that the downward momentum is waning, and a bullish reversal is likely on the horizon.
Investors observing a Double Bottom in AMEX:GLD would be watching closely for a breakout above the resistance level that tops the pattern, often accompanied by increased volume, as a confirmation that the asset could be entering a new bullish phase. However, as always, it's crucial to use other forms of analysis and indicators to validate any trading decisions.
GLD Double Bull Flag From 2 Perspectives, could this be it?@Tradersweekly @tradersweeklysignal check out this perspective on gold when you zoom out. Your case was bearish short term but on these two longer time frames it looks really bullish, don't you think?
Let me know if my bull flags are inaccurate.
Thanks
Kyle
$GLD: Bulls at 180 may keep it goingSaw a big move through GLD 180 and GDX 30 today, with metals like steel ( AMEX:SLX ) potentially not far behind. Some of this correlates to persistent inflation in the market so heads up. Recently we posted about the possibility of NYSE:CF continuing through the 85 handle. If AMEX:XLB can get a bounce of 80 all the better. Good luck traders!
Short setup at $179 on GLDMy attention has been brought the past couple days to gold. It still hasn't reached my lower targets and we're getting much closer to September where I think the guidance is suggesting a longer term low. I'm still learning though as all my ideas come from my work dowsing.
I do, however, like that it's been trending down into that date. There is a suggestion of some serious selling coming, so I want to journal this one. I'll look to get in short around $179 today, assuming it reaches it and my readings still suggest a reversal down.
I will give it 3 weeks, but don't think it's going to take that long to hit my lower target. That's it.
GLD - is that it?Very very rarely will I preemptively get into a position before price breaks an MA of merit. This is one of those times. With GLD under the containment MA of 2 days of highs for 8 days, the containment ratio of 4+ is very rare and I would argue a case where one might get preemptively long. Let’s see what happens the rest of the week maybe into next. Catching the falling knife is rarely wise but this is the one case where perhaps the knife has already hit the ground.
Levels to trade GLDContrary to popular belief, gold is a risk asset, and as such, cannot serve as a reliable store of value. It also doesn’t offer better protection from inflation than equities. That is true for the long term; however, in shorter periods, the yellow metal can be a profitable trade, specifically at times of declining real interest rates and when the economy is weak. Besides, gold, with its zero-to-negative correlation to equities, can help achieve a broad portfolio diversification, which is important, as each asset class can help mitigate different risks in times of increased economic, political, and market uncertainty.
Something to watch in GLDThis is really early, but I know people like to check on gold and it's been fairly choppy and dull.
I attempted an outlook for the year kind of reading on it in April with dates for lows and highs, etc. The results of the dates were off a day or 2 usually, and weren't necessarily reflective of the bigger swings. I will keep playing with this idea though.
So, I checked in for an update, and there is something consistent from that reading to today's, and that is that there is a buying opportunity in September. And I also get a consistent low number to watch for, and that is the price of $173-74. (4% from here).
There can by some seasonality in the 4th quarter in gold, so this lines up as well.
The specific date (plus or minus a couple days) is Sept. 12th. The reading in April was referencing September as the "best buying opportunity", so at least that is consistent.
I will set alerts at $175 to keep an eye on things, and may post this idea again closer to the date. In the mean time I suppose you could try to short it because the advice is for multiple days down.
GOLD to OIL prices the RATIO ANALYSIS ( and meaning )GLD is an ETF tracking gold futures prices across a blend of durations. USO is a similar ETF
for crude oil. I was interested to see what the ratios look like and considering the trading
advise of buy low should I be trading and bartering gold to get oil or viceversa. It is applicable
for be because I am in part a commodities trader and has some activities on the leveraged forex
market.
On the daily chart dressed with a set of two long term anchored VWAP standard deviation lines ,
and some horizontal static resistance lines added, it is obvous to me that the ratio is
currently sitting on the mean VWAP band for support confluent with the lower trendline
of the ascending megaphone pattern which is typically considered demostrative of increasing
volatility. I conclude that if I am a barterer I should trade my oil for gold. If I have gold only
and dry powder I should increase my gold holdings. If I prefer trading oil I should short the
market. This is because the ratio is set up to rise. The means that gold will rise or oil will
fall or some hybrid combination of that. My entry here is when the volatility on the indicator
is green and crosses over the running average.
This is a simple demonstration of how charting with TradingView can help a trader make well-
grounded and profitable trading decisions while lowering risk and making profits more probable.
What do you think of this analysis? What are your agreements or disagreements with it?