NIO test to change trendNIO breakout of POC and test the ema200
if it break ema200 is a good sign to test new resistant at 20$
NIO trade ideas
NIO Wedge Breakout + 200sma BeatNIO has been benefiting from the recent rise in EV stocks with price breaking up and out of a falling wedge pattern while simultaneously crossing up through the 200sma with multiple closes above it. The last time NIO closed above the 200sma prior to this recent move higher was back in November of 2021.
Looking at the moving averages(8,21,34,50,100,200) we can see that the shorter averages are rising and crossing up and above the longer averages indicating a short-term bullish trend in price. The 100ma is leveling out, the 200ma is still declining. We want to see price continue to rise going forward and for the two longest MA's to turn up to strengthen the bull case in NIO.
The PPO indicator show the green PPO line rising and trending above a rising purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum in price. Both lines trending above the 0 level indicates an intermediate to long-term bullish momentum in price.
The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line trending above the 60 level which indicates a short-term bullish trend in price. The RSI line is also above its purple signal line and in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands indicating a bullish trend. Going forward we want to see the green RSI line continue to trend between the 40-60 levels as a sign of an intermediate to long-term bullish trend. The only negative here is the RSI line putting in a lower high compared to price which is a bearish divergence and could lead to a short-term pullback.
Assuming that the stock market and EV sector specifically continue to hold it together, NIO should benefit.
Buy price for me was $10.77.
Stop loss for me is currently at $9.37.
No upper price target for now, will continue to raise my stop-loss as price sets higher lows on an anticipated continued move higher.
NIO - Falling Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout the ceiling of falling trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹Breakout resistance at 8.79 in double bottom formation.
🔹Supports at 9.3 and resistance at 13.
🔹Short-term momentum is positive with RSI above 70.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
$NIO - Long ! Continuation Play! If we pullback and bounce above 10.43
Will risk 10.30 Area
leave some runners above 11.85 if price get's there
Buying Any Break above Hod if it rips above 10.82
On Retest bounce!
NIO AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a 7.93% rally, meeting the bullish target. Right now, price could make a bearish retracement, or continue higher following the strong bullish momentum into the bearish POI at 13.22 next.
NIO BROKE the downtrendgreat,
so no we just need to accumulate and wait. Not so soon for an uptrend.
$12-$13 has a huge resistance gap.
if we can break that, up up and away.
currently looking and buying more as it goes down
Culminating Weekly Divergence! NIO1. Weekly bullish divergence
2. Trying to break the downward channel. (trading near resistance line)
3. WT_LB indicates trading at oversold band
4. MA is not yet confirmed and I am going to wait until I see a change to green line (potentially will happen at earnings release date)
5. Both gaps were filled based on previous analysis.
There are risks. Do your own research. it is just my thoughts.
$NIO Major Room For GrowthDespite news of inflation remaining near zero in China in May, Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has finally ended months of declining sales and has reached its June delivery target. Furthermore, NIO’s investment in the Australian lithium miner Greenwing Resources Ltd. may prove its importance with the expected shortage of lithium batteries as early as 2025. It is also worth noting that NIO has announced new investment from the Abu Dhabi government which could mean that expansion in the Middle East is not out of the question for NIO. All of that indicates that the NIO stock forecast could be bullish in the long term.
NIO Fundamentals
Risk of Deflation In China
With inflation reaching zero in China and being on the brink of deflation, NIO and other Chinese EV manufacturers are at risk of seeing declining sales since it can discourage spending as consumers postpone purchases in anticipation of even lower prices.
Despite inflation reaching zero in China, NIO delivered 10,707 vehicles in June ending months of declining sales and failing to break the 10,000 delivery threshold for the past couple of months. While the risk of deflation will affect Chinese EV sales, the tax exemption for EV purchases that will start in 2024 may help mitigate some of its effects and prevent sales from plummeting. In light of this, NIO could maintain its momentum over the coming months which could see NIO stock run from current levels.
Lithium Battery Shortage
Another risk NIO may be facing is the expected shortage of lithium batteries that EV manufacturers may see as early as 2025 due to a lack of investment in the production of lithium. However, NIO may be able to navigate through this expected shortage since it bought 12% of the Australian lithium miner Greenwing Resources last year for $8.1 million. This deal is now proving its worth for NIO as it will help the company avoid or at least mitigate the shortage EV manufacturers will be seeing.
Technical Analysis
NIO stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $8.79 and $9.89. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 57 and the MACD is bullish.
As for the fundamentals, NIO stock has witnessed two catalysts in the recent investment by the Abu Dhabi government which provides the company with a strong backer, and the June delivery update which saw NIO break the 10,000 delivery threshold. While the risk of deflation in China may impact NIO, the company is well-positioned to navigate through any headwinds it may face thanks to its impressive product.
NIO Forecast
With NIO reaching its delivery target for June despite inflation reaching zero in China, this indicates that the Chinese EV manufacturer may be back on track after a disappointing few months in terms of delivery. Furthermore, NIO’s investment in Greenwing Resources may help it push through the expected lithium battery shortage. NIO may also expand into the Middle East in the future, following the investment from the Abu Dhabi government that it has received. NIO and other Chinese EV manufacturers will be facing a lot of new hurdles, but at the moment, NIO seems to be equipped to navigate those hurdles, which is why NIO is certainly an exciting EV stock.
$NIO NYSE:NIO - On Friday, the NIO stock price experienced a gain of 4.50%, closing at $9.99. Throughout the trading day, the stock fluctuated by 4.45%, reaching a low of $9.66 and a high of $10.09. Recent trends show that the stock has risen in 6 out of the last 10 days, resulting in a 12% increase over the past 2 weeks. However, volume decreased by 2 million shares on the last day, with a total of 50 million shares bought and sold, amounting to approximately $503.41 million. It's important to note that falling volume on higher prices can indicate a divergence and serve as an early warning for potential changes in the coming days. Currently, the stock is positioned in the upper range of a wide and weak upward trend in the short term, which could present a favorable selling opportunity for short-term traders, as a reaction back towards the lower part of the trend may be expected. A breakout above the top trend line at $10.24 would suggest a stronger upward momentum. Based on the current short-term trend, it is anticipated that the stock will rise by 7.92% over the next 3 months. There is a 90% probability that the stock will reach a price range between $8.34 and $11.06 at the end of this 3-month period.
NIO AnalysisPrice failed to mitigate the bullish POI at 7.92 before the rally despite coming close to it. Right now, we have a change in character, but price has not given a confirmation that it wants to go higher. I want to see a solid break of structure to the upside at 10.75 and wait for a retracement before entering.
SEND ITI am buying any potential retrace.
Wether if it was orange or red count.
Have to add that the red count is less likely at this point.
Called this a month ago for bottoming .
Long term hold boys and girls.
Thanks for playing <3
LONG NIOwe JUST closed the gap from 2020... three touch points on the trendline established in 2019, touched in 2020, and now again. Very low risk entry point. And there's a gap at $27
2 potential roadsDisliking the expanding diag.
but i cant see anything else ATM
Typicall retracements after diags are 0.786
which sits at suggested wave 4
However every completed Zig zag pattern is a potential end of a correction or a wave 2
Therefore i present to you two most likely roads
NIO AnalysisPrice playing out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a nice 10.69% drop in price. My expectations remain unchanged, expecting price to potentially mitigate the bullish POI at 7.92 before looking for a confirmation to push price higher.
$NIO Is Probably DoomedI see no reason to be optimistic about this garbage stock. I still think it has a lot lower to go.
Bearish Alert : NIOHourly Chart
New bearish alert after a new relative high (positive price action)
Waiting for a bearish crossover maybe to test the long term downtrend-line.
$NIO Major Room For GrowthAfter receiving an investment from the Abu Dhabi government, a new expansion in the Middle East may not be out of the question for Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO). With this in mind, such an expansion could allow NIO to become the EV leader in the Middle East region which could lead to a substantial surge in sales considering the ongoing efforts to shift to clean energy in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the NIO stock forecast is extremely bright for the future thanks to the Chinese government recently announcing tax credits for NEV purchases in 2024 and 2025. Given that NIO recently participated in the pricing war started by Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), the company could see a boost in sales in the foreseeable future.
NIO Fundamentals
Abu Dhabi Investment
NIO caught investors by surprise when it announced receiving a $740 million investment from the Abu Dhabi government in exchange for a 7% stake in the company. Through this investment, NIO might regain some of the momentum it had in Q4 2022 since it has been struggling with deliveries so far this year – failing to push past the 10 thousand delivery threshold for two consecutive months.
Based on this investment, a race for EV dominance in the Middle East might start as Saudi Arabia is backing American EV manufacturer Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) through the Public Investment Fund (PIF). Through the PIF’s support, LCID is currently constructing a plant in Saudi Arabia that would produce 150 thousand vehicles annually and provided it with a 100 thousand vehicle delivery order from the Saudi government.
Similarly, the Abu Dhabi government could provide NIO with similar help allowing it to grow in the Middle East market. With this in mind, NIO stands to have an edge over LCID in such competition due to its production capabilities. While LCID cut its production target for 2023 to 10 thousand vehicles, NIO successfully produced 100 thousand vehicles in 2022 which shows that NIO may not find it hard to further scale production to meet the potential demand in the Middle East.
In this way, NIO would be able to enter the Middle East market in mass before LCID starts production in its Saudi Arabia plant which is expected to be completed in 2025. By doing so, NIO could capture a major market share in the Middle East – establishing itself as the EV leader in the region.
The chances of such support from the Abu Dhabi government are relatively high since the UAE is planning to invest more than $160 billion in its clean and sustainable energy vision which NIO perfectly aligns with. Based on this, the UAE might do its best to promote NIO to its citizens and neighboring countries which would lead to a substantial increase in sales.
Better Deliveries Outlook
Another reason investors should be bullish on the NIO stock forecast is the company’s improved delivery outlook after participating in the EV price war led by TSLA by announcing a ¥30 thousand price cut for all of its models earlier this month. Additionally, NIO successfully launched and began deliveries of the all-new ES6 model which could drive up sales in the second half of the year due to its impressive technology and features.
While NIO remains unlikely to meet its 250 thousand delivery target for 2023 due to its slow start this year, it is likely to have a record year in deliveries as a result of the expected stronger second half of the year.
However, the main focus should be 2024 and beyond as NIO is in a prime position to capitalize on the Chinese government’s decision to exempt NEVs purchased in 2024 and 2025 from purchase tax up to ¥30 thousand – with the exemption being halved and capped at ¥15,000 for purchases made in 2026 and 2027.
The tax exemption is likely to result in increasing demand for EVs, and considering that the Chinese EV market has seen 55% growth in 2022, the Chinese market could grow even more in 2024. In this way, NIO could be well-positioned to increase its sales which could make the 250 thousand delivery target for 2023 more feasible in 2024. In light of this, the NIO stock forecast appears to be brighter than ever for the remainder of 2023 and beyond.
NIO Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, NIO’s assets increased 7.8% QoQ from ¥89 billion to ¥96 billion, and its cash and cash equivalents increased 35% QoQ from ¥14.7 billion to ¥19.9 billion. NIO’s total liabilities increased by 12.5% QoQ from ¥40 billion to ¥45 billion.
Revenue also increased 7% YoY from ¥9.9 billion to ¥10.6 billion. Operating costs increased almost 30% from ¥12 billion to ¥15.7 billion, which contributed to the operating loss increase of 142% YoY from ¥2.1 billion to ¥5.1 billion. As a result, NIO’s net loss increased 176% YoY to ¥4.7 billion.
Technical Analysis
NIO stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $8.79 and $9.89. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200 and 50 MAs which are bullish indications, while trading below the 21 MA which is a bearish indication. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 44 and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover.
As for the fundamentals, NIO stock has witnessed a catalyst in the recent investment by the Abu Dhabi government which provides the company with a strong backer and a potential entry into the Middle East market. NIO also has a major upcoming catalyst in its June delivery update which will be the first full month with the new ES6 model which can result in a much needed delivery boost for the company.
NIO Forecast
NIO had a rough start to the year with declining sales, the EV price war that was happening, and its stock being down 6% YTD. But the new investment from Abu Dhabi may help change investors’ perspectives about NIO stock since it could allow the company to expand into the Middle East region. Furthermore, NIO’s deliveries may improve going forward since it launched its new ES6, cut its prices, and the Chinese government’s announcing a tax exemption for EVs in 2024 which might increase EV sales next year. All of that makes the NIO stock forecast extremely bullish for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
NIO: Buy ideaBuy idea on NIO as you on the chart because we have the breakout with force the resistance line by a big green candle.Thanks!
NIO AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a +21.55% move before the retracement. Price has taken liquidity above 10.03 and has show a very strong rejection at that area. I'm expecting price to make a bearish retracement from here, potentially into the bullish POI at 7.92 next.
Bullish Alert : NIOBullish alert with good price action and coming test of the ema 1d on the ema 50d.
The most recent trendline was already broken.
$NIO - Breakout From a Falling Wedge Pattern1. PATTERN: Falling Wedge
2. TRADE TRIGGER: Breakout with an above-average-sized (open to close) bullish candle and above average volume.
3. TARGET: Outlined resistance area - previous support.
4. STOP-LOSS: 1 ATR, or 1x the average candlestick size (last 14 periods) below the 10 EMA.
5. RISK TO REWARD RATIO: abt 2.90
6. POSITION SIZE / RISK MANAGEMENT:
a) No more that 1% of your total equity at risk on an single trade, therefore: (Stop Loss (set logically as per above) / Entry Point) x 100 / Total Equity < 1
b) No more than 30% of your total equity at risk at any given moment
7. IMPORTANT NOTE: Remember that drawing lines on a chart means nothing if you do not command and deploy thorough risk management principles and rules.
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