NIO THE RIPPER OF CHINESE EV'SOverhead supply here on NIO. Will take it a week or so to start eating through it. Watch the rocket ship above 44.27.
NIO trade ideas
NIO Fib retracements and time series.Moving average lines crossed again and we can see a swing up to ATHs by EOY and a Rally to new ATHs by mid March.
NIO short term bearish after earningsSqueeze momentum indicator loosing steam, rsi overextended and ARTC almost hitting the upper channel.
NIO Setting Up + Upcoming Catalyst NIO DAYNIO, the electric vehicle company is setting up again after being on a serious downtrend since its surge in January. This surge was the result of lots of "hype" around the name, the rise of Tesla, and its upcoming NIO day which happened on January 9th, 2021. We saw a massive run up the month before, around 60%.
This year, NIO day is happening on Dec 18th, 2021. This should cause an influx of volume and talk about the name. Keep an eye on this one.
In order to confirm the Elliot waves, we still need to create the (E) section of the triangle. Once this is confirmed, I believe we can start rising. However, with NIO day approaching soon, there is the possibility of NIO ripping before the set up completes. I will be watching for any signs of a pullback and be entering calls and shares around the 38-40$ mark.
Definitely keep this one on watch because we know from previous bullish runs, that this thing can RUN. The upside potential is very high here.
NioI think NIO will possibly return to the all time high.
Need to see if the upper resistance trend line is broken
RSI already revving up, so be careful.
I'm long NIO, holding for years to come.
Monthly bull flag bioI think Nio is making bull flag pattern. And it is current in a D of ABCD and after Pull back from D we will fly from E.
Waiting for the Triangle pattern to be finished | NIOToday we will take a look at the current formation on NIO
From a technical perspective, we are observing a triangle pattern. But what is a triangle pattern?
Ralph Nelson Elliott one of the fathers of modern technical analysis, and the creator of the Elliott Wave theory, Identified that the price moves on impulse and corrective sequences.
One is followed by the other one. Based on that he defined 4 types of corrective patterns
-Flat
-Zig-Zag
-Irregular
-Triangle
He also created a system that helps us know when a pattern is finished or we should keep waiting. The example we will use is a triangle pattern. Triangle patterns have 5 waves ABCDE, once we are able to count those waves and we can define clear edges both on the top and bottom of the pattern, we can think about breakouts and the beginning of a new impulse.
In the current situation of NIO, we can count ABCD, and we should wait for E to be sure that the pattern is finished. Once we have that, we can define activation levels as you can see on the chart, and we can define invalidation levels below the structure. The targets of these structures can be defined using fibo extensions or cloned channels.
The main purpose of this is to find situations that we are sure are finished and avoid engaging on charts that we don't have certainty about that.
So my conclusion on NIO is that the pattern is not finished yet, and I would like to see that E wave before thinking about the idea of a new bullish trend happening. Thanks for reading!
NIO Elliot wave detail analysis Nio is currently showing a pendant flag with a break out possibility. The correction impulse had ended on October before the Q3 2021 report and are currently building momentum for a 5 step impulse wave.
Drawing a visible range from the drawback from ATH , the price is currently extremely close to the strongest support for the year.
The ema 20,50,200 further confirm the price is currently at a very right range, showing a promising buying point , they are ready to pull away from each other.
The potential upside gain is more than 50%
Triangle Consolidation to the upsideLooks like a clear monthly triangle consolidation pattern.
Earning look solid. Off we go?
NIO: Most important KEY POINTS to pay attention!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing today!
After our last analysis, NIO went up, as expected, and now we see some weakness sign in the 1h chart. The bullish momentum was broken at the moment it did a lower low yesterday, as evidenced by the red arrow.
However, we don’t see a clear lower high yet. Maybe the 21 ema will work as a ceiling for NIO, and it’ll drop from here, doing a new low, and confirming once for all a bear trend. NIO could easily drop more, but the daily chart is looking interesting:
NIO just hit the 21 ema in the daily chart, and it seems the price stabilized over there. The recent drop seems to be just a pullback to the ema for now, but NIO must react quickly in this area if it wants to resume the bullish bias.
A reversal would occur if NIO defeats today’s high in the next few days, eventually, defeating the 21 ema in the 1h chart too. On the other hand, it must not lose today’s low, or drop too much below the 21 ema in the daily chart, otherwise, it might turn bearish for a while.
Now NIO is in a decisive moment, and regardless if it’ll drop or resume the trend, we’ll have our answer soon. Let’s just stick with these key points for now.
If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates on stocks and indices!
Have a good day.
NIO's Q3 Earnings Call: Here's Everything You Need to KnowThe company is considering IPO in Hong Kong.
NIO reported its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday morning Beijing Time and held an analyst conference call afterward to address the most important concerns of investors.
Here's a summary from CnEVPost, and there's also a live text of our transcript of the call at the end of the article.
Vehicle Deliveries
Current NIO deliveries are primarily affected by supply chain volatility and are expected to reach 23,500 to 25,500 units in the fourth quarter, said William Li, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO.
NIO's new orders continue to grow, with a record high of new orders in October, he said.
Chip supply is now better than the worst of the third quarter, but still faces challenges. The good thing is that NIO has adapted to the situation and always finds some solutions when possible, Li said.
Compared to the automotive industry as a whole, NIO has a relatively small share of sales, so it faces fewer difficulties compared to established car companies, he said.
Many of NIO's domain controllers are developed by itself, so it has some advantages in finding alternative chips.
Power battery giant CATL is trying to ensure the supply of batteries to NIO, but this is still the ceiling of NIO's delivery volume.
The JAC NIO plant will have a few more upgrades to follow, but they won't have as big an impact as they did in October. New NIO models will be built in the new plant, and there will be a capacity creep, but it won't have an impact on the production of existing models, Li said.
ET7 and New Models
NIO plans to have the ET7 available in showrooms around the Chinese New Year, which comes on February 1, according to Li.
The release of the ET7's assisted driving capabilities will be a long-term process, and NIO will consider a number of factors, including regulations, safety and reliability, and will not deliberately make demonstrations of autonomous driving.
NIO's 150 kWh battery is moving forward on schedule, with availability scheduled for the fourth quarter of next year, and is still on track.
Development of NIO's NAD hardware and software systems is well underway, and in addition to the ET7, development of two other new models based on the NT2.0 platform is on schedule, with deliveries to customers expected to begin in the second half of next year, Li said.
With the growth in scale, NIO's long-term target for the margin of vehicles based on NT2 models is 25 percent. NIO will reach that goal if it reaches 300,000 units of annual production capacity.
NIO's current models will be upgraded to the NT2 platform, but it will manage the pace carefully. The development work for the upgrade is already underway.
Many of NIO's new models are being developed in parallel, and the costs will be reflected in the financial statements over time.
NIO will offer some hardware upgrades to existing models next year when they become available. The company has considered the possibility of upgrades in the design of its products.
New Plant and Capacity Growth
In addition to the upgrade of the JAC NIO plant, the construction of NIO's second plant in NeoPark is proceeding on schedule.
Construction of the plant started on April 29 and the main structure was topped out on August 26. Equipment installation will start at the end of November and the plant will be officially put into operation in the third quarter of next year.
With the completion of NIO's second plant, the two plants can reach a maximum annual capacity of 600,000 units with double shifts, which can meet the needs in the short term.
About Norway and European Expansion
NIO's work in Norway has met expectations, with a quarter of the test drive customers placing orders, much more efficiently than in China.
NIO ES8 orders in Norway exceeded expectations, with 92 percent of consumers choosing the battery rental service BaaS, Li said.
NIO hopes to establish an after-sales service system in Norway before aggressively pushing sales.
The company's low deliveries in Norway in September and October were not due to a lack of orders, but rather a controlled pace, and NIO's deliveries in Norway will increase significantly in November.
NIO will enter at least five additional European countries next year, all offering NT2-based products. The ES8, based on the first-generation platform, will only be available in Norway.
Regulatory Credits and Subsidy Withdrawal
Most of NIO's sales of regulatory credits materialized in the third quarter, earlier than last year.
Li said NEV penetration has risen quickly this year, as has the price of regulatory credits, and expects that next year the price of regulatory credits may be lower than it is now.
In response to a question about China's subsidy rollback for NEVs, Li said the average selling price of NIO vehicles is high and the expected subsidy rollback won't have much of an impact on it.
The following is the text of CnEVPost's live report of the conference call:
NIO's new orders continue to grow, with a record high of new orders in October, said William Li, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO.
Current NIO deliveries are mainly affected by supply fluctuations, and total deliveries are expected to reach 23,500 to 25,500 units in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Development of NIO's NAD hardware and software systems is well underway, and in addition to the ET7, development of two other new models based on the NT2.0 platform is on schedule for delivery to customers starting in the second half of next year, Li said.
In addition to the upgrade of the JAC NIO plant, NIO's second plant in NeoPark will start installing equipment at the end of November and will be officially put into operation in the third quarter of next year, said Li.
NIO ES8 orders in Norway exceeded expectations, with 92 percent of consumers opting for the company's battery rental service BaaS, Li said.
The JAC NIO plant will have small amount of renovations to follow, but they won't have as big an impact as they did in October. New NIO models will be built in the new plant and there will be a capacity creep, but it won't have an impact on the production of existing models, Li said.
Most of the sales of regulatory credits occurred in the third quarter, earlier than last year.
With the growth in scale, NIO's long-term target for vehicle margin based on the NT2 platform is 25 percent.
NIO plans to have the ET7 available in showrooms around Chinese New Year, which arrives on February 1, Li said.
The current chip supply is better than the worst third quarter, but still faces challenges. The good thing is that NIO has adapted to the situation and always finds some solutions as much as possible.
Compared to the whole automotive industry, NIO's sales account for a relatively small percentage, so the difficulties it faces are also relatively smaller than those of established car companies.
Many domain controllers are developed by NIO itself, so it has some advantages in finding alternative chips.
CATL is trying its best to ensure the supply of batteries to NIO, but it is still the ceiling of NIO's delivery volume.
The average selling price of NIO vehicles is high, and the expected subsidy withdrawal will not have much impact on it.
The release of ET7's assisted driving capability will be a long-term process, and NIO will consider a number of factors including regulations, safety, and reliability, and will not deliberately go for autonomous driving demonstrations.
NIO's 150 kWh battery is advancing on schedule, with plans to deliver in the fourth quarter of next year, and is still on track.
If NIO reaches an annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles, it will be able to achieve a 25% vehicle gross margin.
NIO's current models will be upgraded to the NT2 platform, but NIO will manage the pace carefully. R&D work for the upgrade is already underway.
NEV penetration has risen rapidly this year, as has the price of regulatory credits, and next year the price of regulatory credits may be lower than it is now.
NIO's work in Norway has met expectations, with a quarter of the test drive users placing orders, much more efficiently than in China.
NIO hopes to establish an after-sales service system in Norway before aggressively pushing sales. The company did not deliver much in Norway in September and October, not because there were not enough orders, but because it was controlling the pace. NIO's deliveries in Norway will increase significantly in November.
NIO will enter at least five additional European countries next year, all offering NT2-based products. The ES8, based on the first-generation platform, will only be offered in Norway.
Many of NIO's new models are being developed in parallel, and the costs will be reflected in the financial statements over time.
With the completion of NIO's second plant, the two plants can reach a maximum annual capacity of 600,000 units with double shifts.
NIO will offer some hardware upgrades to existing models next year when the time comes. The company has considered the possibility of upgrades in the design of its products.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NIO Q3 Earnings: What to ExpectWill the chip shortage affect Nio's Q3 results?
NIO will report unaudited third-quarter earnings on November 9 after the US market closes. So what can investors expect?
NIO has already released data showing that it delivered 24,439 vehicles in the third quarter, up 100 percent year-on-year and 11.6 percent from the second quarter. Of those, 5,418 ES8s, 11,271 ES6s, and 7,750 EC6s were delivered.
In a research note sent to investors on November 3, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team said the delivery figures were largely in line with their latest forecast.
The team expects NIO's revenue to be CNY 9.33 billion in the third quarter, representing a 106.1 percent year-on-year increase and a 10.4 percent increase from the second quarter.
Yu's team expects NIO to report a gross margin of 17.0 percent in the third quarter and a vehicle margin of 18.6 percent. As a comparison, the company had a gross margin of 18.6 percent and a vehicle margin of 20.3 percent in the second quarter.
The team attributed their lower gross margin forecast to higher depreciation amortization.
Based on these figures, the team expects NIO to report a loss of CNY 0.82 per ADS in the third quarter. This compares with a figure of CNY 0.21 in the second quarter.
For the fourth-quarter outlook, Yu's team expects NIO's management to likely give guidance of 24,000-25,000 deliveries, considering that October's downtime resulted in only 3,667 deliveries for the month.
NIO's management has hinted that their order book has exceeded 10,000 units for several months in a row, so Yu's team expects NIO's deliveries in November and December to improve back to more than 10,000 units, and expects the company's guidance for fourth-quarter revenue may be in the CNY 9.5 billion-10 billion range.
NIO has previously said it aims to deliver three models next year, including its flagship sedan ET7, Yu's team noted, adding that they don't think NIO's management will do a complete refresh of its current models next year, as it believes they can remain competitive with the most competing German luxury models with minor updates.
Yu's team raised NIO's delivery forecast for next year from 150k to 160k and for 2023 from 245k to 285k.
Based on the latest delivery forecast, the team raised its price target on NIO by USD10 to USD70, still based on 8x 2023E EV/sales.
In a separate report sent to investors on November 4, Yu's team noted that NIO's stock has significantly underperformed its local peers over the past three months, but that could change soon.
The team believes that there are 2-3 potential catalysts that could help change the narrative on the stock next. Here's what they say:
1) 3Q21 earnings on 11/9: management will provide 4Q guidance that shows large step-up in volume recovery for Nov/Dec and while official consensus is likely too high, we believe buy-side expectations have already been reset.
2) November monthly deliveries: likely reported on 12/1 and should confirm robust demand for existing models despite greater competition.
3) NIO Day: will be held on 12/18 and we expect new models/technology to be unveiled that should boost both investor and consumer sentiment.
Notably, the team also cautioned that risks including further constraints from the supply chain, a sudden shift in EV investor sentiment and poor initial acceptance of new products could also invalidate these judgments.
NIO shares are up about 10 percent so far this month and up about 20 percent in the past month.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
Nio failed breakout (10 Nov 2021)Nio seemed to fail to breakout. Price will head back down. Keep a lookout.
NIO SHORT NYSE:NIO NYSE:NIO
NIO Need to break out $44 and close above. If not We may see it going down to 38-40.
