Chart of the Day: NY1! Potential +3% counter-trend rallyAt this stage of the market, one should expect global equities to have a correlation of 1x and today's chart of the day for the NY1! can be viewed in-line with yesterday's call on the ES1!.
The NY1! should see some support at current levels as it approaches key SSR levels and test the lows of the 4th leg of the 3-Drive formation (if you prefer, Elliot Wave 5-Wave). If you increase the resolution to the 30M time frame, the basing process is apparent.
At this stage, I am looking for a counter-trend rally to the 21.8k level which be congestion zone made up of a SSR level, moving average, trend line resistance as well as the 61.8% retracement level. Why is it a counter-trend rally:-
#1 It is a trend break and unless price action breaks above the trend-line resistance, one should be looking for a ABCD move down at the minimum.
#2 The Apr'19 peak is a lower high versus the Oct'18 peak which implies the ABCD down move in #1 is actually part of a larger CD leg down.
#3 The $JPY should be viewed as a haven trade to test the lows of 107 over the medium term.
#4 As previously mentioned, Trump has left himself with no possible exit beyond total victory which includes crossing red lines set by the Chinese. While I can't opine if the Art of the Deal will prevail, I would say the odds of failure is very high. The situation is very similar in the US confrontation with Iran, there is no better alternative from the Trump administration and if Iran is pushed into a corner, the odds of a conflict is very high.
This is my 2cents and should not be viewed as a solicitation to buy or sell or trade any securities. For more information on SSR levels, please search for Relative Force Significant Support and Resistance under Scripts.
NK1! trade ideas
Elliott Wave View: Impulsive Decline in NikkeiOur Elliott Wave view on Nikkei suggests the rally to May 4, 2019 high (22505) ended wave w. This ended cycle from December 26, 2018 low and the Index is in the process of at least doing a larger 3 waves pullback. Short Term, decline in Nikkei from May 4, 2019 high is unfolding as an Elliott Wave impulse structure. Down from 22505, wave 1 ended at 21935 and wave 2 ended at 22245. Wave 3 ended at 21080 low.
Expect wave 4 bounce to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as wave 2 pivot at 22245 stays intact. Possible target for wave 4 is 23.6 – 38.2 retracement of wave 3 at 21539 – 21672. Alternatively, Index can end the entire 5 waves from May 4, 2019 high already. In this case, it should do a larger 3 waves bounce to correct the cycle from May 4 high before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the Index and expect further downside in the Index to complete a 5 waves down.
Broadening Wedge Descending Brings 83% Chance for Price TargetOnce price breaks above the pattern there is an 83% chance price target will be met.
Percentage based on a number of successful trades.
There are at least 4 line touches of the upper and lower trendiness of the pattern.
Consensus: Bullish
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Still Missing Wave 5Short Term Elliott Wave view on Nikkei Futures suggests the pullback to 20704 ended wave (2). The Index then resumed higher in wave (3) which ended at 21985. The internal of wave (3) subdivided as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20704, wave 1 ended at 21415, wave 2 ended at 20985, wave 3 ended at 21765, wave 4 ended at 21490, and wave 5 of (3) ended at 21985. We can also see the internal of wave 1, 3, and 5 all subdivide as an impulse (5 waves) of lesser degree. This is an illustration of fractal within Elliott Wave where each wave consists of smaller waves and the pattern repeats indefinitely.
Wave (4) dips appears complete after a 3 waves pullback ended at 21588+ blue box area. The internal of wave (4) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave A ended at 21735, wave B ended at 21835, and wave C ended at 21565. At this stage, Nikkei still needs to break above wave (3) at 21985 to avoid a double correction in wave (4). While dips continue to stay above wave (2) low at 20704, expect Index to extend higher in wave (5). If bounce from the blue box fails to break above (3) high and it breaks the recent low, then structure of wave (4) should become a double three Elliott Wave structure and would be labelled as WXY. We would be able to define the next blue box area for a bounce if the bounce does fail and breaks the recent low.
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Rally Likely Fails for DownsideElliott Wave view is calling an end to Nikkei’s rally from December 26, 2018 low with wave X at 21884. The Index should resume the move lower and should eventually break below wave December 26, 2018 low. Or at minimum, the Index should do a larger 3 waves pullback to correct the cycle from 19055 low. Down from wave X at 21884, the decline is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave ((a)) ended at 20680. Internal of wave ((a)) subdivides as a 5 waves impulse.
Wave ((b)) bounce is currently in progress as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20680, wave (a) ended at 21520 and wave (b) ended at 20705. Internal of wave (a) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 21520 low, wave w ended at 21410, wave x ended at 21015, and wave y of (a) ended at 21520. Internal of wave (b) ended as a zigzag at 20705. Wave a of (b) ended at 21160, wave b of (b) ended at 21505, and wave c of (b) ended at 20705. Wave (c) of ((b)) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. The rally should fail below March 4 high at 21884 for further downside. We don’t like buying the Index and expect rally to fail for further downside as far as pivot at 21884 high stays intact.
Elliott Wave View: Further Rally in Nikkei FavoredShort-term Elliott wave view in Nikkei suggests that the Index has ended correction at 20169 as wave ((X)) and starts a new leg higher. Decline to 20169 on 8 February took the form of an Elliott Wave Expanded Flat. An Elliott Wave Flat structure has an ABC label with subdivision of 3-3-5. We can see from the 1 hour chart wave (B) of this FLAT ended at 20970 and wave (C) ended at 20169. Subdivision of wave (C) unfolded as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 20970, wave 1 ended at 20815, and wave 2 ended at 20895. Wave 3 ended at 20270, wave 4 ended at 20370, and wave 5 ended at 20169.
The Index has since rallied and broke above the previous high on February 5th, suggesting the next leg higher has started. Rally from Feb 9th low (20169) is unfolding as a 5 waves Impulse structure. Up from 20169, wave 1 ended at 20480 and wave 2 ended at 20390, wave 3 at 21198 and wave 4 at 21060 low. Expect ideally 1 more leg higher in the Index to end the 5 waves up. Afterwards, it should pullback to correct the cycle from Feb 9 low within wave (B) in 3, 7, or 11 swing. As far as pullback stays above 20390 low, expect the Index to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Index.
Risk on catching market off guard,high conviction Long Nikkei225Weekly Insidebar pushing higher towards 22500 level.
Risk on continues, JGB yields bottomed. Path higher is clear
bear flag in the nikkeiHeaded for continued downtrend. Moving down in tandem with all global markets
NIKKEI 225 FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 20815
Stop Loss (SL) : 20990
Take Profit (TP) : 20465
Description
NYH2019 formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (20815) and place stop after 0.618 level (20990). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (20465)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
5 = +-$25
Commission fee = -$3.02/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $175 = -$875/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 3 standard contracts
EP to TP = $350 = +$1,750 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$18.12
Loss = -$2,625
Gain = +$5,250
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.98
NIKKEI 225 FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 19740
Stop Loss (SL) : 19445
Take Profit (TP) : 20455, 21290
Description
NYH2019 formed Double Repo Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Limit at 0.382 Level (19740) and place stop after 0.618 level (19445). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (20455) and 21290
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
5 = +-$25
Commission fee = -$3.02/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $295 = -$1,475/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 2 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $715 = +$3,575 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $1550 = +$7,750 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$12.08
Loss = -$2,950
Gain#1 = +$3,575
Gain#2 = +$7,750
Total Gain = +$11,325
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.82
Can Aggressive Elliott Wave View In Nikkei Will Play Out?Nikkei short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the cycle from 10/01/2018 peak is showing 5 swings bearish sequence. This favor more downside to 19073-16773 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area to be reached in 7 swings before support for bigger 3 wave bounce is seen at least. The decline from 10/01 peak is showing overlapping price action thus suggests that decline is unfolding in a corrective sequence i.e could be unfolding as double three structure.
Currently, the decline to 21075 low blue wave (W) lower. Above from there, a bounce in blue wave (X) took place as a Flat correction where red wave A ended at 21735 high. Wave B ended at 20950 low and red wave C ended at 21923 high which also completed blue wave (X). Down from there, blue wave (Y) can be completed at 19278 low. Above from there the index is expected to do a bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings within blue (X)(X) of a possible triple correction lower. We expect short-term sellers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings on a bounce in blue wave (X)(X).
Time GuesstimateWe are watching a bearish movement based on the drive of the time target. A probable uptrend after the second time target and then downtrend after the third time target.
Nikkei Futures / H1 / Technical ChartNikkei Futures / H1 / Technical Chart
Bat Pattern was trigger at 21680 levels
good luck
Nikkei225 i H&S Perfect inverse hs in forming, if breaking 21660 successfully, it will hit 21900 and form a bigger I H&S which is targeting 22700
LionTrade Nikkei 225 December Futures Contract Nikkei 225 is currently trading at the 21860 level
Analysing the hourly chart, we can see a head and shoulders pattern has formed, with the neckline at the 22000 to 22250 level. When measuring the price from the head to the right shoulder, we can see a downward movement of 1543 points. When measuring this 1543 points downward movement from the shoulder downward, we see a drop from 21860 (current price) to 21591
Trading a USD account with LionTrade where the domestic currency is ZAR (Rand)
IMR:
1 lot * 1 contract * 0.005 IMR * 21860 current price = JPY 109.30
JPY 109.30 / USDJPY 113.13 = USD 0.97
USD 0.97 * USDZAR 14.68 = ZAR 14.18 required margin
Potential profit is:
* 1 contract = $ 13.6391 * 14.68 USDZAR
$ 13.6391 * 14.68 USDZAR = R200 profit
Potential Return:
* 100 = 1362%
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