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O87 trade ideas

Trade Idea: GLD March 18th 140/September 17th 165 LCD*... long call diagonal. Comments: Here, I'm preliminarily pricing out a bullish assumption GLD setup, buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month at-the-money call. I'd prefer to deploy this at that obvious support level at 160, which has resulted in some buying interest previously. If that occurs, I'd have to tweak the strikes slightly, selling an at-the-money 160, for example, and then buying whatever the 90 delta strike in the back month. The Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 22.79 ($2279) Max Profit: The Width of the Diagonal Spread (25.00) Minus the Debit Paid (22.79) = 2.21 ($221) ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.21/22.79 = 9.7% Break Even: The Long Call Strike (140) + the Debit Paid (22.79) = 162.79 versus a spot price of 164.64 Trade Management: Take profit on the setup's approach of max (which would be 25.00). Otherwise, roll out the short call to a strike at or above your break even of 164.64 to reduce setup cost basis. Variations: Preliminarily, I'm pricing out the setup with a fairly long-dated back month. To get in with less buying power effect, look to buy a shorter duration back month 90 delta, with the trade-off being that you'll have less time to reduce cost basis via the short call in the event that gold prices keep on going down. To look for more profit potential, sell a less monied call (e.g., the 30 delta) to give the trade more room to the upside.
AMEX:GLDLong
by NaughtyPines
19
Inflation surprise + no Fed policy change = GoldGold has jumped above its exponential moving averages on both the daily and weekly charts after inflation numbers came in red-hot yesterday and today. Despite the hot inflation numbers, Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell signaled this morning that the Fed will stay the course on easy monetary policy and still expects inflation to be temporary. That means that more inflation surprises could lay ahead, and traders may look to inflation hedges like TIPS, crypto, and gold. All three popped today, with the iShares TIPS bond ETF making a new all-time high. Gold's got potentially a lot of upside in the horizontal channel here. Note that August tends to be seasonally the strongest month for gold, perhaps because traders rotate to the relative safety of gold as a hedge against the weakest months of the year for stocks (August and September). I also like gold miners right now, with the P/E on GDX at about 17 and the P/FCF at just over 8 making this a relatively inexpensive sector. I will say as a caveat that this is not a high-conviction trade for me, so I'm not going in very heavy. I've been a little underwhelmed by the intraday price action lately, with lots of strong opens and weak closes. But given the news headlines and the seasonality here, I've decided it's worth taking a position.
AMEX:GLDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
Closing (IRA): GLD September 17th 150/July 23rd 166... long call diagonal for a 15.43/contract credit. Comments: Money, taking, running on this (which was pretty much my original intention if I got the move). My cost basis was 13.88, (See Post Below), so my profit is the difference between what I closed it for (15.43) minus my cost basis (13.88) or 1.55 ($155)/contract. 1.55/13.88 = 11.2% ROC. Naturally, there could be continuation, but the most I can make out of this diagonal is the width of the spread (16.00), and I'm not sure I want to hang out another 17 days (the duration of the front month), since it's been flopping back and forth across that 166 mark for a bit (which is where I'd need price to finish above to realize max).
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
Rolling (IRA): GLD July 16th 166 to July 23rd 166... for a .36/contract credit. Comments: Here, just rolling the short option leg of my GLD diagonal (See Post Below) while price is right at the short call strike to bring in a little bit more credit, reduce cost basis further, and improve my break even a smidge. I originally filled this for 14.24 (See Post Below), so my cost basis is now 14.24 - .36 or 13.88 and my break even 150 (the long call strike) + 13.88 or 163.88. Max profit potential now the width of the spread (16) minus my cost basis of 13.88 or 2.12.
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): GLD September 17th 150/July 16th 166 LCV*Comments: Pre-market, this is showing bid 13.89/mid 14.05/ask 14.21. Going long call vertical on gold weakness here (and taking a little advantage of call side skew), buying the back month 90 and selling the front month at-the-money. A sixteen-wide for which I'll be paying no worse (at least currently) 14.21, so a max profit potential of the width of the diagonal minus what I paid or 1.79 with an ROC at max of 12.6%. I'll have several opportunities to roll out the short call for additional cost basis reduction in the event that this weakness isn't over. * -- Long call vertical.
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
Gold forming similar topping pattern Many have observed that gold (using GLD here as a reliable proxy) might be forming a huge cup-and-handle pattern (1,2). That may prove to be the case. However, at the moment, the similarity of the unfolding trend to the 2011-13 topping pattern seems noteworthy in itself. Perhaps we’re seeing the start of the cup-and-handle leading to an upward bull run, or perhaps it will be a rerun of the 2011-13 pattern with gold going into a sustained decline. Imo, persuasive arguments can be made for either outcome, so I’ll just wait and see and in the meantime point out this arguably curious unfolding similarity. (1) (2) www.investopedia.com
AMEX:GLDLong
by iGoddard
1