SPY: End of March/Start of April Hey everyone,
Going to keep this short because I feel like, between projections and levels, I have a good idea of what is going to happen next week.
The chain of events seem to be gap down/ or sell towards 550 / 549, then up to 557 (which is also our reference target, that yellow line in the chart) where we see rejection to sub 550.
I am a little shook that this is moving super quick, but the last correction in a Trump era was fairly swift, tumbling over 20% in the span of maybe 3 months if I remember correctly (2018). But it was a complex market because there was an initial collapse, then a choppy grind up to highs, then an even deeper sell. I am hoping that this does not repeat because that would be annoying.
Here is the forecast:
The red line is the best fit projection.
Looking at the forecast overlaid with the levels for next week it does really align well with the move to 557.
If we are to break over 557, then I would be looking for a cap at 559.
The best fit low is 546, which means dropping below previous support.
The ultimate target as of right now is a move back to the quadratic mean in the 490s. Though we could find support on the upper confidence level.
If we are doing a very fundamental correction, 472 is SPY's mean based on the US money supply:
As of right now the target to really just care about is 546.
And as a side note, there was a ton of volume uptick in that 555 range. We only hit it on Friday, but over the last 5 days, 555 comprised the HIGHEST volume, all selling, to the point of being SPY's 5 day POC. That is pretty intense for a new low on the week achieved Friday a few hours before market closed for the weekend to comprise the most volume and it being 95% in one direction. This stark EOW volume generally would lead to gap in the direction of the volume, which was bearish, so hence I do expect a bit of a gap down.
Anyway, those are my thoughts, keeping the idea fairly simple this week because I'm tired haha.
Safe trades, enjoy your weekend!
P.s. Thank you as always to Tradingview for allowing people to do plots with pinescript on public ideas! 🙏🙏🙏
