SPY put looks like every month within the first couple of day SPY has a pull back and I'm expecting the same this November especially with the uncertainty of the election and FOMC.
S27 trade ideas
Trading Plan for Tomorrow (October 23, 2024)Trading Plan for Tomorrow (October 23, 2024):
1. Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
The overall bias is neutral-to-bullish, with the 60-minute chart showing a continuation of the upward trend, despite potential near-term weakness in momentum.
Expect some consolidation between 583 and 585, with the potential for upside breakouts if SPY manages to hold above 583.
2. Entry Strategy:
Preferred Buy Zones:
On pullbacks near 581-582, you can look for a reversal pattern on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart. A confirmed buy signal in these areas, supported by a cross-up in the MACD, will be ideal for entering a long position.
If SPY pulls back to the 578-580 range, this would offer a better risk-to-reward entry point, especially if support holds near these levels.
Breakout Buy:
If SPY closes above 585, you may consider a breakout buy, especially if confirmed by strong momentum indicators (e.g., positive MACD histogram on the 5-minute chart and strong volume).
3. Exit Strategy:
Profit-Taking:
For a long position entered around 581-582, consider taking partial profits near 585 or scaling out if resistance appears strong at this level.
If SPY breaks above 585, trail your stops to lock in gains around 586-587.
Stop-Loss:
Use a stop-loss slightly below the nearest support, around 580, if entering a long position around 581-582. This keeps the risk tight while allowing for volatility.
For more aggressive entries, like breakouts above 585, place stops near 583 to protect against false breakouts.
4. Indicators to Watch:
MACD Crossovers on the 5-minute and 30-minute charts will provide timely buy/sell signals, especially for short-term entries.
Volume and Volatility: If volume increases on a breakout above 585, it will confirm a bullish continuation.
RSI: Watch for divergences on the 5-minute chart. If the RSI dips into oversold levels (below 30), it could signal a strong rebound opportunity.
Conclusion:
The strategy for tomorrow should focus on watching key levels: 583 (current price action), 585 (resistance), and 580 (support).
Positioning should favor the upside unless key support levels break, but be prepared for volatility around these levels.
Use the 5-minute chart for refined entry and exit points, while the 30-minute and 60-minute charts guide the overall trend and momentum.
Daily Recap - Will the Market Ever Go Down?A recap of today's action and opportunities I saw. I posted several ideas earlier and a lot of them have already triggered and worked so that's nice. It's been fairly easy to just buy dips lately because VX stalls every chance it gets, but I believe things are going to get a lot more dangerous soon.
I have been speculating about a big market crash for a few months, but as I've noted, we just haven't had the VX strength for a significant move down that lasts. That is beginning to change now. ES and NQ are near all time highs, meanwhile VX is nowhere near the all time low. VX was completely crushed this summer and spent most of it making new all time lows. Now it has become extremely elevated relative to ES in my opinion and it has lasted for weeks, but has been kept in check so far.
VIX is near 18 and has routinely traded near and above $20 while SPY is sitting near ATH. That is extremely unusual and should cause everyone to throw some caution flags up. That being said, this is why VX is so important to me here at 18.40. If it can't hold, it will likely go back in decay mode like this summer and then I'd be more optimistic for equities. VX has a long way to fall at the moment, but it hasn't yet.
In addition to elevated VX and VIX, we have interest rates and DXY soaring along with gold and silver. There could not be a bigger warning signal than what we are seeing right now with interest rates spiking straight up after a 50bps cut. Not to mention global tensions, bank failures, and whatever else might happen for a catalyst. It's coming and couldn't be more obvious. It may not happen until after the election, but it will be swift.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Rally ContinuationThis quick update related to my SPY/GOLD cycle patterns, and other research/predictions, is to help you plan and prepare for the pending rally phase in the markets.
Based on my research, the markets will likely pause a bit tomorrow, Wednesday, and move into a basing/bottoming phase - where price will attempt to develop support.
From that support, I see a fairly strong rally taking place on Thursday and lasting into late- Monday/mid-Tuesday next week.
As I have urged traders to stay cautious over the next 15+ days (elections and liquidity issues), this may be a great time to play the last rally phase before the 3-5 day pullback just before the US elections.
Watch this video. Follow my research.
If you are new to what I'm doing, then watch my Plan Your Trade videos for a week or two. See if you like my style of analysis and if it helps you improve your trading.
My objective is to help as many traders as possible. I'm not 100% accurate in my predictions - but I believe my research is uncomparable to others in what I'm capable of presenting/sharing with all of you.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Short Term Bullish Options PlayI believe this chart represents a short term spike to the upside within the channel this week.
Positions:
$3000 of SPY $584 Call expiring this Friday
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - SPY Falling WedgeNice falling wedge/bull flag here on the 15m. Price is currently near the middle of the recent range from about $577 to $585. We have short term support below near 580 and the wedge trendline.
Watching for a wedge breakout to head back up to ATH again or for a failure below $580 for a short back to the $577 and potentially $575ish area.
Reaching possible top before election?
The RSI Cyclic, which has accurately indicated previous pullbacks, is now signaling the start of another. The 579 level remains solid support, but if it breaks, the uptrend may be over for now, and a deeper pullback could follow.
Over the past two years, SPY hasn’t experienced a 10% pullback, and it's uncertain if it will this time. However, current conditions seem to support the possibility of a 10% decline:
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are at an all-time high.
The U.S. election is becoming a tight race, raising uncertainty, especially if the Democrats win, as Trump is unlikely to concede quietly.
Although the economy shows strength, inflation continues to affect middle and lower-income households.
A spike in oil prices could reignite inflation.
China might take advantage of this global distraction to act on Taiwan, though this is highly speculative.
On top of this Gold is going higher, why ? Strange time a head
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 10-22: Gap Reversal In Counter-TrendToday's Gap Reversal in Counter Trend mode should resolve as a moderate downward early price trend - possibly transitioning into a base/bottom and turning higher near the end of the trading day today.
Looking at the charts, it appears price is actually leading my SPY Cycle Patterns by about 12+ hours right now. Why?? I don't actually know why - but it appears price is anticipating the cycle patterns a bit early.
Given the heightened sense of concern related to the elections, price may be rolling through stages of liquidity and volatility with only about 15 days to go before the elections.
Either way, as I suggested, this week is going to be tough to trade with the markets moving into a pause phase ahead of the elections. Most traders are trying to position assets away from the markets or are planning on riding things out past the elections right now.
I continue to suggest traders scale back allocation levels this week and next because of the issues related to liquidity in the markets.
Look for the SPY/QQQ to attempt to find a base and try to melt upward near the end of trading today.
Gold & Silver should stay rather muted today.
Bitcoin is consolidating - just as I suggested.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY October 22, 2024AMEX:SPY October 22, 2024
15 Minutes.
The downward bias target 580 was done yesterday.
AMEX:SPY bounced back with a good bar with close near top of bar once 580 was done.
This was 9 averages in daily.
For the fall 585.39 to 581.60 AMEX:SPY retraced 61.8% to 583.5 levels.
For the rise from 565.27 to 586.12 AMEX:SPY has retraced 23.6% levels.
So today holding 580 is crucial for furter uptrend to continue.
Buy is above 585 levels and sell below 580 levels for a possible target 573-575 levels.
This is not a chart to short for more than 3 to 5$ targets as of now.
If draw an extension from 566.6 to 585.27 to 578.54 first target is 588-590 levels for a buy above 585.
I expect a good move today or tomorrow as all numbers near moving averages in chart in 15 minutes time frame.
Time for a sideways consolidation move with bias towards upside.
SPY Technical Analysis for Oct. 22, 2024Key Levels:
Resistance levels:
586.30: This is a significant resistance level that has been tested recently.
585.35: Another near-term resistance level.
583.55: A third resistance point that is currently closer to price action.
Support levels:
582.12: Immediate support just below the current price.
578.51: A lower support zone that could provide a bounce if price drops.
577.01: Major support based on the recent low.
Trend and Price Action:
There's a visible descending trendline forming, which suggests a downtrend in the medium term. The price has tested this trendline several times but has not been able to break it.
The chart shows that volatility is starting to decrease based on the tightening price range.
SPY is trading around the middle of its recent price range, suggesting possible consolidation before the next move.
Volume:
The volume is relatively low, which could mean that the current move lacks strong momentum. However, low volume could precede a breakout or breakdown.
Indicators:
The MACD below the chart indicates potential indecision, with crossovers occurring but no strong momentum in either direction. This could signal that tomorrow might be a day for more cautious trading, waiting for confirmation of direction.
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
If SPY manages to break above 585.35, it could aim for the 586.30 resistance level and potentially higher if the breakout is strong.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown
If SPY falls below 582.12, it could find support at 578.51 or even test the 577.01 level. A breakdown from there could signal further bearish momentum.
Recommendation:
Long positions could be considered if SPY breaks above 585.35 with volume confirmation.
Short positions could be entered if SPY breaks below 582.12 with volume, targeting the lower support levels.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should only invest funds you can afford to lose. Always perform your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
SPY: Immediate thoughts/Analysis A bit of a longer video, but its in response to some questions.
The cliff's notes is that I am not personally sure which way SPY goes from here. I know the targets we will see at some point this year (which is covered in the video) but I don't know the immediate direction SPY will choose.
A bit of a longer video, covering both the short term and longer ish term targets.
As always, safe trades and leave your questions below!
Thanks for watching!
SPY trading plan for October 22, 20241. Market Overview:
Price Closed at 583.71: SPY closed near its recent highs, suggesting overall bullish momentum, but the presence of the sell signal on the chart indicates a potential short-term pullback.
Momentum Slowing: Both the MACD and the yellow histogram bars are showing a decline in momentum, which indicates caution in the short term.
Major Support Levels: The key support to monitor is around 581.50, which has held throughout the previous sessions.
2. Bullish Scenario:
Trigger for Long Entry:
Look for a bounce above 583.50–584.00: If the price finds support above the red moving average (around 583.50), or even better, if it clears the recent high of 584.00, this could be an indication of strength, signaling a potential long entry.
Buy Signal Confirmation: Use shorter timeframes like the 5-minute chart or 15-minute chart to confirm if a new buy signal appears. Ensure MACD or momentum indicators on shorter timeframes show rising strength before entering.
Trade Entry: Buy around 583.70–584.00 only if momentum reverses upwards.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 586.00 (Recent highs) – set a profit target around this level if the market continues to rise.
Second Target: 588.00 (Extension target) – If momentum picks up, you can aim for 588.00, but be cautious as this could be a stretch.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Place a tight stop-loss around 581.00. This level is near the dynamic support of the red moving average and the previous session's support.
Trailing Stop: If the price exceeds 584.00 and shows strength, consider using a trailing stop of 1.00 point to lock in profits while protecting against pullbacks.
3. Bearish Scenario:
Trigger for Short Entry:
Watch for Weakness Below 581.50: If the price breaks below 581.50, and the 30-minute signal chart confirms a sell signal, it would be an indication to enter a short position.
MACD Confirmation: Ensure that the MACD on the 30-minute chart stays negative, or check for a sell signal on the 5-minute chart to confirm momentum is moving downward.
Trade Entry: Enter a short position around 581.50 with confirmation of a bearish setup from multiple timeframes.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 579.00 – This level marks the next major support zone if the market pulls back significantly.
Second Target: 576.50 – If the downward momentum is strong, this would be the next major area to consider for taking profits.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Place your stop-loss around 583.00 if entering a short position. This gives some room in case of minor fluctuations above the breakdown level but protects against a full reversal back into bullish territory.
Trailing Stop: Consider using a 0.75 point trailing stop to manage risk as the price moves in your favor.
4. Intraday Strategy:
Morning Setup (9:30 AM – 12:00 PM):
Observe the Opening Price Action: The first 30 minutes will be key to understanding if the market continues the bullish momentum or begins to retrace from the recent highs.
If the price stays above 583.50 in the first hour and signals align with buy indicators on the shorter timeframes (5-minute chart), consider entering a long trade.
If the price starts to break below 581.50, be ready for a potential short opportunity and follow through with the short strategy outlined above.
Midday Trading (12:00 PM – 3:00 PM):
Monitor Consolidation: SPY may consolidate between 581.50–583.50 in the middle of the day. Look for momentum signals and volume increase as indicators of the next move.
Use Smaller Timeframes: Focus on the 5-minute or 15-minute charts to spot any changes in trend or breakouts from this consolidation range.
Afternoon Setup (3:00 PM – 4:00 PM):
The last hour of trading can often bring increased volatility. If a breakout occurs in either direction, enter a trade using the strategy of either buying above 584.00 or shorting below 581.50.
5. Additional Considerations:
Look for Divergences: Pay attention to any divergences between the price and the momentum indicators (e.g., MACD or RSI). For example, if the price reaches a higher high but momentum is lower, this could signal a false breakout.
Monitor Broader Market Sentiment: Keep an eye on overall market sentiment and external factors that could affect SPY’s direction, such as macroeconomic news, earnings reports, or changes in interest rates.
Summary of October 22, 2024, Trading Plan:
Bullish Trade: Buy around 583.70–584.00 if upward momentum is confirmed, with targets at 586.00 and 588.00. Set stop-loss at 581.00.
Bearish Trade: Short below 581.50 if weakness is confirmed, with targets at 579.00 and 576.50. Set stop-loss at 583.00.
Morning and Afternoon Focus: Watch opening price action and volatility towards market close for optimal trade execution.
Quick Thoughts on Today's Open and Plans Moving ForwardI didn't have time to do as much analysis as I wanted this weekend, but getting caught up now. Here's a quick summary of my thoughts on the market after the first few hours of trading this week. Overall fairly flat and directionless, but I think that will change soon.
SPY Trading Plan for Monday, October 21, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, October 21, 2024
Based on the SPY research report and technical analysis, this plan outlines strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements while managing risk effectively. The focus is on taking advantage of tactical opportunities within SPY's current range and being prepared for breakouts or reversals.
Key Price Levels to Monitor:
Resistance: $588.91
Support: $571.26
Current Price: $584.59 (as of October 18, 2024)
Market Context:
SPY has shown signs of consolidation following a strong uptrend. Technical indicators, including overbought conditions on the hourly and 5-minute charts, suggest that while momentum remains positive, we may see a pullback or breakout soon.
Pre-Market Actions:
1. Review Overnight Futures Data:
Monitor SPY futures during pre-market hours to gauge market sentiment.
If bullish, be ready for a potential breakout above resistance.
If bearish or flat, prepare for possible consolidation or a pullback.
2. Check for Macro News and Earnings:
Be mindful of any macroeconomic releases or earnings reports that could impact the market direction.
Unexpected news could shift the market's movement, so adapt the strategy accordingly.
Primary Trading Strategy: Tactical Buy on Dips
1. Buy at Key Support Levels:
Entry Price: Initiate long positions if SPY pulls back to the $575 - $571 range (key support).
Target 1: $584 (return to current price range).
Target 2: $588 (resistance level).
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $570 to manage downside risk in case SPY breaks below support.
Rationale: SPY remains above key moving averages and the broader trend is bullish. Buying near support levels allows for entry during a potential bounce within the uptrend.
2. Monitor 5-Minute Signals for Buy Confirmation:
Use the 5-minute signal chart to refine entry points throughout the day. A buy signal at key support adds strength to the long position.
Combine with volume analysis: Look for increased buying volume near support as confirmation of a reversal to the upside.
Breakout Strategy: Buy on Break Above Resistance
1. Entry for Breakout Above $588.91:
Entry Price: Buy if SPY breaks above $588.91 with strong volume.
Target 1: $590
Target 2: $595
Stop Loss: Place a stop at $586 to manage risk if the breakout fails.
Rationale: A breakout above $588.91 indicates renewed bullish momentum. Given the potential weakening in the MACD, confirmation with volume is essential to validate the move.
Alternative Strategy: Short on Rejection at Resistance
1. Short at Resistance Levels:
Entry Price: Consider shorting SPY if it fails to break above $588.91 and shows signs of reversal (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, weakening volume, or 5-minute sell signals).
Target 1: $580
Target 2: $575
Stop Loss: Place a stop at $590 to manage risk in case of a sudden upward reversal.
Rationale: Overbought conditions and weakening momentum indicators increase the likelihood of a short-term pullback if SPY fails to break above resistance. A failed breakout could offer a tactical short trade.
Risk Management:
1. Position Sizing:
Follow the 1-2% rule: Risk no more than 1-2% of your total portfolio per trade to minimize losses.
Maintain smaller position sizes in a consolidating market to manage risk amid potential volatility.
2. Hedging:
Consider hedging long positions by buying put options or using inverse ETFs like SH (ProShares Short S&P 500) if SPY shows weakness and starts trading below $571.
3. Volatility Watch:
Monitor the VIX index: A spike in the VIX signals increased market fear, which could precede a downside move in SPY. Tighten stops if VIX increases sharply.
Contingency Plan:
Gap-Down Open Below $571: If SPY opens significantly lower, avoid initiating long positions until the price stabilizes or shows clear reversal signals.
Gap-Up Open Above $590: If SPY gaps above $590, trail the stop loss tightly to manage a possible reversal after the initial upward move.
Unexpected Market Shocks: If the market experiences unexpected negative news or shocks, consider exiting all open positions and re-assessing the technical landscape before entering new trades.
End of Day Review:
At the close, review open positions and the overall market direction. If SPY remains within the $571 - $588 range, hold long positions as appropriate. If a breakout or breakdown occurs, adjust positions based on the target and stop levels outlined in the trading plan.
Conclusion:
For Monday, October 21, 2024, the primary strategy will be to trade within the range of $571 to $588 with a bias toward buying on dips. However, be prepared for potential breakout or rejection signals. Implement strict risk management, including position sizing, stop losses, and hedging to navigate the session's volatility effectively.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SPY Research Report for the week of October 21 - October 25Investment Summary:
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) continues to trade within a well-established uptrend, showing resilience amid broader market volatility. However, short-term technical indicators suggest caution as overbought conditions and a slight weakening in momentum raise the possibility of consolidation or a pullback in the near term. SPY is currently trading at $584.59 (as of October 18, 2024) after gaining 2.24 points (+0.38%) on the day.
For the upcoming week, we expect SPY to trade within the $571 - $588 range, with key resistance at $588.91 and support at $571.26. A break above this range could lead to continued upside, while failure to sustain current levels might trigger a retracement to stronger support areas.
Technical Analysis Overview:
Price: $584.59 | 1-Week Target: $590 | 1-Month Target: $600
Recommendation: Hold / Tactical Buy on Dips
Key Observations:
Bullish Price Trend: SPY remains in a well-established uptrend across medium to longer-term timeframes. The price is comfortably above the 200-hour EMA and hugging the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. This implies continued momentum to the upside, but the price nearing resistance around $588 suggests that near-term gains may be capped unless significant catalysts emerge.
Overbought Conditions: The Stochastic Momentum indicator is signaling overbought conditions on both the 30-minute and hourly charts. While the overall trend remains positive, such signals typically precede a period of consolidation or correction. Investors should prepare for short-term volatility.
MACD Trend Weakening: The MACD on the hourly and shorter timeframes has started to flatten out, signaling a potential loss of momentum. A cross below the signal line would further validate the possibility of short-term weakness, leading to a consolidation phase or pullback.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $588.91 A break above this level could fuel further upside momentum toward $590, and if sustained, could lead to a push toward the $600 level over the next few weeks. However, failure to break this level would likely lead to consolidation within the current range.
Key Support: $571.26 Should SPY retrace, the $571 level offers solid support, aligning with mid-range Bollinger Bands and prior consolidation levels. A break below $571 could increase downside risks, with further support at $553.62.
Outlook and Scenarios:
Bullish Case: SPY continues to exhibit resilience and bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential if market conditions remain favorable. A confirmed break above $588.91 would set the stage for a rally toward $590-$595 in the coming week. This scenario is supported by broader market sentiment, as SPY remains well above key moving averages.
Base Case (Neutral): In the event of consolidation, SPY is likely to trade within the $571 - $588 range for the next several sessions. Given current overbought signals and flattening MACD indicators, it is likely that SPY will consolidate before making any further moves to the upside. Traders can expect heightened volatility in this range, offering tactical trading opportunities.
Bearish Case: In a risk-off scenario, if selling pressure accelerates, SPY could break below $571, leading to a broader retracement toward the $553.62 level. A shift in macroeconomic conditions or a significant external shock could trigger this downside move. Investors should watch for a breakdown in technical support levels, which would confirm this scenario.
Investment Guidance:
Tactical Strategy:
Buy on Dips: Investors with a medium- to long-term horizon should consider adding to positions if SPY pulls back toward the $575-$571 range, where technical support is likely to hold.
Breakout Strategy: Traders should consider entering positions if SPY breaks above $588.91 with strong volume, targeting the $590-$595 range in the short term. Use tight stops to manage risk given the possibility of volatility.
Risk Management:
Trim Positions Near Resistance: If SPY struggles to break above $588 and begins to exhibit signs of weakness, consider trimming positions or using options to hedge.
Downside Hedge: For more risk-averse investors, consider hedging exposure if SPY closes below the $571 support level. This could indicate a deeper correction and warrant reducing exposure to broader equity markets.
Macro Factors:
Federal Reserve Policy: The recent Fed interest rate cut in September 2024 has provided a supportive backdrop for equities, including SPY. However, if macroeconomic data disappoints or if inflationary pressures re-emerge, this could lead to increased volatility. Investors should monitor upcoming Fed commentary closely.
Earnings Season: As earnings season progresses, SPY constituents' performance could drive additional volatility in the ETF. Strong corporate earnings could provide an upside catalyst, while any disappointments would likely weigh on the broader index.
Conclusion:
SPY remains in a strong uptrend, though short-term overbought conditions and weakening momentum suggest the possibility of a pullback or consolidation before further upside. Investors should focus on tactical buy-on-dip opportunities around $575-$571 and be prepared for a break above $588 to signal further gains. Risk management remains key, with downside support levels providing critical areas to monitor in the coming week.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SPY Trading Plan 10/21583.85 open. ATR 5.26 as of now. Low could be 578.63. High could be 589.09. Looking to get long at 579 with a target of 584.
S&P Bulls Hold Strong, But Is a Market Cooldown Coming?Last week wasn't particularly remarkable. Despite two bearish attacks (on Tuesday and Thursday), buyers still managed to push the market to a new historical high. It was somewhat concerning that they couldn’t sustain the high for even an hour after the open, but since the bearish movement didn’t gain momentum on Friday, the bulls still have the upper hand. We may see some consolidation in the upcoming weeks, as there are signs that the rally is approaching exhaustion (weakening of upthrust, weekly RSI entering the overbought zone, weakness in XLK). However, this market has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience and ability to exceed expectations.
The long-term outlook remains bullish, but given these signals, it would be prudent for buyers to downsize their positions and refrain from selling PUTs.
Mind TSLA report on Wednesday as it can cause some volatility and act as a trigger.
Are we setting up for a 5-10% pullback pre-election?AMEX:SPY looks exhausted here and everyone is extremely bullish at the highs. Sentiment is at extremes and we have demark combo 13s that triggered at the end of last week. On top of that, we've been moving up in a rising wedge that looks set to break down.
Also, if we look at the chart, there's an imbalance in price action as we have largely gone straight up since the August 5th low and the area I've highlighted hasn't been retested at support.
All this leads me to believe that we should see a 5-10% pullback in the next couple of weeks prior to the election. Why in the next two weeks?
From a candlestick perspective, we're starting a new 2D, 3D, 2W, 3W candle today which leaves the possibility open of a trend change to start today. I expect the move to play out before the election.
I'm playing this idea solely through volatility calls which I averaged into Wednesday-Friday last week.
Let's see if it plays out.
Trades - SPY, BTCFor ease of reference for my Copiers, the chart shows current and historical trades of my trading strategy. Updated with a time lag. Bookmark the page for updates.
🫰 Happy Trading
🐆 MrStocky
Short-Term Trader
AMEX:SPY , TVC:SPX , COINBASE:BTCUSD , AMEX:GBTC
Not Financial Advice
Historical Performance Not Indicator of Future Returns
SPY Technical Analysis for Oct. 21, 2024Technical Analysis Overview
Trendline and Ascending Channel:
SPY appears to be respecting an ascending triangle pattern, as shown by the diagonal trendlines sloping upwards.
It is consolidating near the upper boundary (around 586.30), which could signal potential strength if it breaks through. This is often seen as a bullish continuation pattern.
Support and Resistance Levels:
586.30: Acting as a key resistance level, tested multiple times without a breakout yet. A break above this could open up new highs.
584.81: A visible support level within the range. If this level holds, it would confirm buyer interest.
583.84 and 582.35: Additional nearby supports; a move below these levels could trigger a deeper retracement, potentially dragging SPY towards 578.55-578.53 (lower support zone).
Volume and Order Blocks:
There's a volumized order block (green zone) sitting between 582–584. This suggests significant buying activity in that zone, providing a buffer for price to bounce higher if tested.
MACD Indicator:
The MACD histogram and signal lines show a mild bullish crossover below the zero line, hinting that momentum might be shifting towards the bulls but still lacks strength.
The bars indicate weak momentum, suggesting that SPY might need a catalyst for stronger movement.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Case: If SPY breaks above 586.30 with volume, expect a possible run-up towards 590.
Bearish Case: If it fails to hold 584.81, a drop towards the lower support levels (582 or 578) is likely. Breaking below 578 would shift the bias towards bearish.
My Thoughts & Strategic Viewpoint:
Given the narrowing price action, SPY looks poised for a breakout or breakdown soon. I would lean towards bullish bias, given the upward trendline and multiple touches on resistance.
However, the lack of strong volume and a weakening MACD suggests that the breakout may not be explosive without more volume or a fundamental trigger (e.g., economic news or earnings).
For scalping, I’d suggest:
Entry on breakout above 586.30, ideally with volume confirmation.
Stop loss just below 584.81 to manage risk.
A short trade opportunity might arise on rejection from resistance or a breakdown below 583.84, aiming for the 582-578 zone.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and it's essential to manage your risk appropriately. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor if needed.
SPY Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 584.57 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 577.22
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SPY Outlook for OCT 21, 2024AMEX:SPY headed into this week is an inside bar / 1 / harami.
Means an explosive move is coming.
Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday.
The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs.
There's no real catalyst ' yet ' for a big bearish move.
I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ
There still a GAP downside that was not completely filled last week.
#SPY is in this rising wedge pattern and been respecting the TL (Green/Red).
The pivot for SPY will be 583.99 - 584.55.
If the bulls hold above that, you will see 585.39 get taken and then potentially 586.12. Failure by the bears to stop the move up and 587/587.35/588 will be on the path.
If the bears take control and break the pivot zone, then you will see 583.67 / 583.2 / 582.6 / 582.33 and 581.82 / 581.5 / 580.9
Market Structure starts to change with a break of 582.16.
A true MSS comes at 565 break.
Keep in mind, there is a divergence between NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY
This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE!
#SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
Channel Thinning OutWeek of the 20th October 2024. I am partially Bullish for $SPY. I expect a push upward around 588 to the tip of the channel and then a flush towards mid 575, then we begin a new momentum towards 600 before a final EOY flush to lower high. High of the week is 588 and Maximum low of 562.
Trade cautiously. This is not financial advice!!
