SPY IS REPEATING THIS MARCH 2022 PATTERN !! BOUNCE INCOMING?AMEX:SPY is repeating this exact pattern not seen since March 2022. Here's what's next
S27 trade ideas
SPY: Update for Week of March 17Hey everyone,
A bit of a longer idea, but I had lots to talk about about, I guess.
Here is the summary information for next week:
Summary
Most likely high target 568.21 (probability assigned 18%)
Most likely bear target 552.74 (probability assigned 64%)
Retracement target 557 (probability 71%)
Expected return -0.11% (very conservative this week interestingly enough).
EMA 200 average target 533 range
Weekly Levels
Weekly Forecast
Thanks for watching and reading and as always safe trades! 🚀And not advice!🚫
SPY to Crash to $350s by MayPeople fail to realize how dramatic market crashes can be. Historically bear markets have seen 30%+ declines from peak. We are going to see a 40%-50% decline from peak down to 350s by May.
With 1 or 2 exceptions, rate cutting cycles have always coincided with bear markets, which are 30%+ declines from peak in the S&P 500. We have the largest spike in unemployment since covid, largest drop off in real estate sales, massive AI bubble in tech stocks, Q1 GDP falling off a cliff to -2.8%, the list goes on and on.
SPY: Long Trade Explained
SPY
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long SPY
Entry - 562.78
Sl - 550.29
Tp - 583.92
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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First dead cat bounce in reversing Gamma trend fulfilled SPY/SPXAs the chaos of uncertainty reigns: tariffs on and off again, government shut downs, DOGE hunting down government subsidized industries, we can see a trend change from our general upward long term moves from the past year.
Not only this but we have returned to the bearish channel with many attempts to break and turn resistance to support to no avail. How long will it last? First step is to identify a solid exit out of this channel with a confident market support test on the upper channel.
Until then we will follow this trend with dead cat bounces until the dust settles.
Spy... Where we standWeekly chart...
White line represents Primary trend since 08 housing crisis crash
Blue channel represents price action from 2017 -2025
Now pay attention..
You see the yellow trendlines ? Those represent the up trend from covid crash and 2022 crash.
Those were micro uptrends both lasting 2yrs in length..
So now the market has hit a reset switch and I believe we are headed back to the blue trendlines bottom
Like so -
I think over the next week or so if spy recovers 567 then we will have one more squeeze to 585 before the next leg down
My target by the End of Q2 is 490-500.. basically we are back into 2022 price action
Once we hit channel support I expect An accumulation and consolidation before a new multi yr rally to 700
I know this sell off seems random and tariffs related but it's not! Markets top back in Nov/Dec same as 2022.
To show you what I mean by that just look at the other Indexes and tell me is it a coincidence they all hit their decade long resistance at the same time?
Dow Jones target 38,000
NYA/NYSE (More important then spy)
NASDAQ /Ixic
Notice how NASDAQ , Dow, NYA and Spy all hit resistance at the same time? No Trump tariff , No inflation fears, No interest BS just good ol channel trade.. I know perma bulls want up forever but I suggest waiting for Spy 490-510 for the REAL dip buy..
You're going to see a bunch of charts focusing on the weekly hammer printing this week but I'd like to point out that in 2022 we also had week hammers print
I do think Spy can bounce as high as 585 if it can get over 567 next week..
Bulls are holding the line on SPY!Boost and follow for more 🔥
SPY bulls are holding the line at the weekly trend support line from December 2023, for now bulls still have control and this is just a normal pullback, a rally higher to previous and new highs is likely from here in my opinion..
break of 540 on the weekly timeframe and a lot more blood may come.. but for now its looking like people are buying the dip..
if this post gets some likes ill start posting more SPY updates in the future, this is my first one of the year! its been a while
SPY - rally or bounce?Analysis of SPY, a very clear idea of what should happen if the bulls will keep going or the bears are about to attack.
SPY Market Analysis - 14/3/2025
The bears got a tight bear channel down which means persistent selling.
The current leg down is in the form of a 9-bar bear microchannel. There could be sellers above the first pullback.
The selling pressure has been stronger (big bear bars, consecutive bear bars) as compared with the weaker buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying).
The bears want a measured move to around 5400 in the SPX which is just 100 points away fro yesterday's low.
If the market trades higher, the bears expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg low (Mar 13).
The bulls see the move down as climactic.
They hope to get a reversal from a parabolic wedge.
The problem with the bull's case is that the bull bars have no sustained follow-through buying.
They need to create consecutive bull bars trading near their high to convince traders that they are back on control.
The move down has been strong. The market remain Always In Short.
If there is a pullback, odds favor a second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg extreme low (Mar 13).
There could be sellers above the first pullback from the 9-bar bear microchannel.
For now, traders will see if the weekly candlestick will close with a long tail below (like the last 2 weeks).
Or will the market retest yesterday's low and close the week near its low instead?
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 14, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
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Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
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Need any other charts daily, comment on this.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-14-25: Temp BottomToday's Cycle Pattern is a Temporary Bottom pattern. I suspect the markets may attempt to move a bit lower in early trading before attempting to find a new base/support level.
Yesterday's low may prove to be very important depending on what the markets do today. Initially, I thought yesterday's low was the Temporary Bottom pattern (one day early). But, I do believe the markets will continue to be volatile in early trading today and may move downward to retest lows before trying to move higher - setting up the Temporary Bottom pattern.
Gold and Silver will likely continue to melt upward unless there is some big news that disrupts the US Dollar's downward slide. I see Gold trying to rally above $3200 very quickly over the next 15+ days.
Bitcoin is still consolidating and is currently in a short upward price phase (much like the SPY/QQQ). In fact, the SPY/QQQ and Bitcoin are all in an EPP consolidation phase.
So, that means even though we may see a volatile type of price move over the next 15-30+ days, price is ultimately trapped in a consolidated price range and will/should attempt to break downward into the Ultimate Low.
Therefore, if we get a moderate pullback/rally phase over the next 5+ trading days, be aware that the rally upward will end near March 21-24 and turn downward very sharply before the end of March (based on my research).
You have lots of opportunity if this base sets up for a moderate rally in the SPY/QQQ, but play it cautiously as I don't believe we'll see new ATHs anytime soon.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
$SPY - Trading Levels for March 14 2025Are you guys ready?
The 35EMA - is a BEAST
Is today the day we break above it for a swing? Grab this chart and let's GO!!! It’s Friday and no matter what happens I’ll be playing one of these sides at these strikes.
3/14/2025 SPY reversal or just a lil' bit more before a bounce? Key Observations:
1. Significant Downtrend:
• The recent price action shows a notable decline from its highs, suggesting strong selling pressure.
• The price has fallen to a major support zone around $551.42, close to a longer-term uptrend line (green line).
2. Support & Resistance Levels:
• $563.91 – A previous support level turned resistance after the recent decline.
• $551.42 – Currently being tested as a support level.
• $539.44, $518.36, and $510.27 – Potential next support levels if price continues downward.
3. Trendline Test:
• The long-term uptrend line is being tested right now. If it holds, SPY could see a bounce.
• If it breaks below, it might lead to a deeper correction towards $539.44 or lower.
4. Indicators:
• Stochastic RSI (middle panel):
• Currently in oversold territory, suggesting that selling momentum is strong, but a potential bounce could occur.
• MACD (bottom panel):
• The histogram is deeply negative, showing strong downward momentum.
• The MACD lines are still bearish but may start flattening, which could indicate slowing bearish momentum soon.
Prediction for Tomorrow & Near-Term:
• Bullish Scenario:
• If $551.42 and the trendline hold, SPY may attempt a bounce toward $563.91 resistance.
• Confirmation would require bullish momentum on lower timeframes and increased volume.
• Bearish Scenario:
• If SPY breaks below $551.42 and the trendline, expect further downside to $539.44 and possibly $518.36 in the coming days.
• A continued negative MACD and weak Stoch RSI would reinforce this bearish outlook.
Conclusion:
• Critical level to watch: $551.42.
• If SPY closes above it, we could see a short-term rebound.
• If it breaks below, expect more downside pressure toward $539.44 and $518.36.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 14, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸⚠️ Potential U.S. Government Shutdown ⚠️: The United States faces a potential government shutdown on March 14 if lawmakers fail to agree on the 2025 budget. This impasse could lead to the closure of government agencies and furloughs of federal employees, impacting various sectors and potentially affecting market sentiment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, March 14:
🛒 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:This index measures consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power, providing insights into consumer sentiment.
Forecast: 64.0
Previous: 64.7
🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's health.
Previous: 592
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Mind blowing 507 and 337 Price Targets Signal Trouble AheadI’m not here to throw out wild price targets—I’m just following the technicals, and they’re telling me one thing: this market looks weak. Whether we hit 507 first or head straight to 337, my stance remains the same—I’m bearish until proven otherwise. In this video, I’ll break down the charts, key levels, and the risks I see playing out. No predictions—just pure technical analysis. Feel free to tell me your opinions.
SPY/S&P500 price retracement targets based on fractals 478-482
The chart above looks at stock market retracements since the 2008 bottom. Retracements are simple Fibonacci ratios. In my observation, except for COVID-19 19 which was an outlier, every time the stock market crashed, it found bottom around .236 Fib ratio. This means that if this crash continues, the market will most likely find bottom around SPY 482 - 478.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update for 3-13-25What a crazy day. The markets certainly decided to burn the longs almost all day.
I got a few messages from traders who continued trying to pick bottoms in this downtrend. FYI, that can be very dangerous.
If you are a short-term trader and are trying to pick a base/bottom all day today - you have to have a limit in terms of how much you are willing to risk within a single day.
I've seen dozens of traders blow up their accounts in a big, trending market.
Please learn from your actions. Develop a STOP POINT related to your trading decisions.
There is no reason to continue to try to execute "bounce" trades when the markets are trending as strongly as they are today.
This video should help you understand what I see as the potential over the next 5+ days.
We are still trying to hold above critical support near the 50% retracement level on the SPY.
Everything depends on what happens in DC and how the markets perceive risks.
Gold/Silver rallied very strong today. This is FEAR related to risks.
If the US government enters a shutdown, Gold and Silver could skyrocket much higher.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Inverse cup and handle update!! Saw this earlier at lunch time and now the handle is complete we can see a slow trend down tomorrow. But I highly see a falling knife. Let’s see how it plays out.
The 3pm sessionanalysis of the market at different times during the hour. I stayed short. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX #ES_F
Real GDP vs SP500Real GDP and the S&P 500 are interconnected indicators of economic health, though they measure different aspects of the economy. Real GDP reflects the total value of goods and services produced, adjusted for inflation, and serves as a broad measure of economic growth. The S&P 500, on the other hand, represents the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies and is often seen as a barometer of corporate profitability and investor sentiment. Generally, when Real GDP grows, it signals a healthy economy, which can boost corporate earnings and drive stock prices higher, positively impacting the S&P 500. Conversely, a decline in Real GDP, such as during a recession, can weigh on corporate profits and lead to declines in the S&P 500. However, the relationship isn't always direct or immediate. For example, the S&P 500 is forward-looking and often reacts to expectations of future GDP growth rather than current data. Additionally, factors like monetary policy, interest rates, and global market conditions can influence the S&P 500 independently of Real GDP trends. In periods of economic uncertainty, the S&P 500 might rally on hopes of stimulus or recovery, even if Real GDP data remains weak. Thus, while Real GDP and the S&P 500 often move in tandem over the long term, their relationship can diverge in the short term due to market sentiment and external influences.
SP500 vs fedfundsrateThe interest rate and the S&P 500 share a complex yet significant relationship in financial markets. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing typically increases for companies, which can reduce their profits and, in turn, put downward pressure on S&P 500 stock prices. Additionally, higher rates make bonds and other fixed-income assets more attractive compared to stocks, potentially leading to a shift of capital away from the equity market. Conversely, when interest rates are low, companies can borrow more cheaply, which tends to boost earnings and, consequently, the performance of the S&P 500. However, other factors such as economic growth, inflation, and market expectations also play a role in this dynamic, making the relationship neither linear nor entirely predictable.
1pm sessionAnalysis of AMEX:SPY at 1pm March 13, 2024 and my reasoning for holding shorts into the close. If anything changes I will stop out
AMEX:SPY SPX #ES_F
A Huge Technical Re-Test of This Important TL Has Just Occurred!Trading Family,
Tariff FUD is recking traders rn. After breaking important support which started in Nov. '24, I knew the SPY was in trouble. My first target down was 563. We hit that and broke it. My second target down was 550. We are there right now! Will it hold? I don't know. TBH, I don't think any analyst that is honest knows. Investors have never seen Tariffs levied like they have been recently by the Trump admin. Noone really knows how this is going to impact the current economy, which is now global (big diff from the last U.S. tariff econ in the late 1800's).
But I can say that this is a big support which is the neckline of our large long-term Cup and Handle pattern started all the way back in Jan. of 2022! We did have one retest already. Usually, this is all that is needed. But apparently, the market wants another. Though the support is strong, remember, every time it is tagged, it weakens. Thus, if it can't hold this current downturn, I suspect it will drop hard from here should it break, possibly dropping all the way to 460. Be prepared for this and watch your trendline closely!
On the other hand, if it holds, I see a huge bounce incoming! We'll probably then go all the way back up to test the underside of that support (red with two with lines) that we broke. Hold on to your hats! We are living in unprecedented times with unprecedented market volatility.
The last item to note is that, once again, this all seems to be occurring at the same time that U.S. congress and senate are voting on a continuing resolution. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation however, in this case, I would suggest that should a U.S. gov't shutdown occur, our support will break and down we'll go. Should a CR pass, big bounce incoming. Stay tuned and watch the news closely for this. It seems to be a news driven event.
✌️ Stew
