S27 trade ideas
$SPY - Recap of Last Week
Last week we had a from bottom of the week on Monday to top of the week on Friday an 8.25% move
We opened the week with a gap down and dropped hard on Monday - and then up from there.
Tuesday gap up
Tuesday was TSLA earnings in after-hours.
Gap up Wednesday then drop back down to the 35EMA and a pretty solid squeeze into the end of the week.
So do we get violently slapped out of that gap?
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 28 – May 2, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 President Trump's 100th Day in Office: Wednesday marks President Trump's 100th day of his second term. His administration's protectionist tariffs continue to influence global markets and political landscapes, with notable impacts observed in Canada, Australia, and the UK.
📉 Trade Tensions and Economic Indicators: Investors are closely monitoring the effects of recent U.S. tariffs on economic performance. Key data releases this week, including GDP and employment figures, will provide insights into the economy's resilience amid these trade policies.
💼 Major Corporate Earnings: This week features earnings reports from major companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, and McDonald's. These reports will offer a glimpse into how large corporations are navigating current economic challenges.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 28:
🏠 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (10:00 AM ET):
Provides data on rental and homeowner vacancy rates, offering insights into housing market dynamics.
📅 Tuesday, April 29:
📈 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET):
Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March.
📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions.
💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand.
📅 Wednesday, April 30:
📈 GDP (Q1 Advance Estimate) (8:30 AM ET):
Provides an early estimate of economic growth for the first quarter.
💳 Personal Income and Outlays (10:00 AM ET):
Includes data on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
🏭 Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Assesses business conditions in the Chicago region, reflecting manufacturing sector health.
📅 Thursday, May 1:
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Reports total spending on construction projects, indicating economic activity in the sector.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Measures the number of new filings for unemployment benefits, reflecting labor market
conditions.
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Provides insight into the manufacturing sector's health through a survey of purchasing managers.
📅 Friday, May 2:
👷 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET):
Reports the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.
📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET):
Indicates the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking
employment.
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Measures the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
WHERE WILL THE STOCK MARKET GO FROM HERE? (April 27, 2025)In this video, we take a quick look at AMEX:SPY weekly chart to determine what's next for the overall stock market
$SPY Devastating Weekly NIRVANA BEAR trap!GIANT FIBONACCI RARE HARMONIC PATTERN
Im going for a 100k with 7 cons and shares at 20k i want to multi bag 10x
All will be shared here step by step just DROP A LIKE FOR ME!
Spy Squeeze Theory $571The Liquidity Mirage: SPY’s $550 Trap?
SPY closed the day pressing into the $547–$550 zone — a major inflection level. Afterhours strength has sparked interest, but beneath the surface, this may be setting up for a high-stakes trap.
AlphaPulse Thesis:
If SPY opens or pushes above $550, our models signal one of the ugliest liquidity grabs in recent months. The move could extend to $561, even possibly squeezing to $571. But the velocity and volume behavior at these levels screams manipulated exit ramp.
Trade Expectation:
After this fake breakout move, we anticipate a sharp retrace targeting the $525–$520 zone, where true value buyers may re-emerge.
Indicators Flashing Red:
Volume Surge Divergence
MACD Overextension
Z-Score Volatility Spike
Options Flow: Put Walls Below $530
Watchlist Trigger Level:
Short Bias: Above $550
Breakdown Confirmed: Below $543
Target: $522 initial, $520 extended
Strategy Summary:
This is a classic liquidity run — institutions baiting breakouts to dump heavy bags. Be nimble, stay informed, and let JoeWtrades guide your precision.
— JoeWtrades, AlphaPulse Terminal™
SPY Watchlist 4/28 - 5/2The Goal here is to analyze how price will react. We are already heading into the gap meaning our targets are around $563.19.
We must always wait for a confirmation candle when approaching and heading into higher highs from the previous dump
what goes down quick must come up quicker, when it comes to ETFs. This is what Majority of the working class have their 401ks.
SPY: Last week of April Hey everyone!
These are just my thoughts on SPY for next week.
Not advice of course.
Be safe and I hope you all have a great week!
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 550.55
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 532.22
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
I SPY an opportunity to riseThe "macro" environment has an extreme bearish tone. There is a great deal of uncertainty still. So let's look to the charts to see what's the deal. Monday morning was a spill over from Trump's tantrums and we bounced at the end of the day Monday with a wick. Interesting note... big tech earnings was beginning. What a perfect time to see some rise on the charts.
NFLX already had us anticipating some positive movement b/c of their Good Friday earnings. So most people were focused on the play of 1000-1100. So many people took a position.
Back to SPY... Trump stated after hours after during TSLAs awful earnings call that he was not going to fire JPowell and TSLA began rallying as well as other big tech companies (interesting). The rallies held overnight. There were selloffs after the earnings, creating HL (higher lows) that held across many charts. The week proceeded and we slowly rose the rest of the week.
I'm recalling that Trump initiated a 90 day pause. & though their is still negative chatter and uncertainty with the final outcome; it's enough to have bullish thoughts for the remainder of the earnings season (esp big tech and major companies) while we chop.
Cautiously viewing the charts one day at a time; watching for candlestick patterns to assist with plays. If the pattern is bullish, looking for a bullish play. if the pattern is bearish, looking for a bearish play. Or... just pick a side and wait for what you connect to. My notes on candle recognition below over the next week will be below.
Tootles
SpyApril seasonality finally showed its self this past week.. You can always tell when seasonality takes over because of the volume and the fact that news doesn't matter anymore.
Example - March, Sept and sometimes May are bearish seasonality.. In these months you'll notice that no matter how good the news or earnings stock still stumble...
Nov, Dec, April are bullish and most of the time no matter the bad news things just pump or get bought up for no reason.
I think spy goes for 565.00 this week, which is only another 3% higher. To put this in perspective, Spy was 536 on 4/23 and melted up 3% in two days on no volume ..
At 565 I think there will be a very nice short opportunity where I think spy will pull back to to 540-545.. I wouldn't short this before 565, and this only becomes bearish again if spy closes next week below 535.00!
Now here's the chart
TVC:DJI
Very low key late this week.. contrary to qqq the dji has not broken above its trend line resistance but I think that will happen this week and it most likely will off set any draw done from big tech.. imagine a day where dow jones is up 400pts and nasdaq down 150pts; this price action would lead spy to chop in the middle FAWKERY.
The upside target here is APRIL 2ND gap close
NASDAQ:QQQ
Yellow trendline is breakout
White trendline is April 2nd gap close
Red line is - 20sma
So like I said above, qqq is leading the way up to April 2nd gap close. This gap close at 476 is about 5% aways from the 20sma.. I think once qqq tags 476 it will begin a pullback to 465-468.. during this pullback you will see them pump the dow. As long as 465 holds then 488 is next or weekly 50ma. If we lose 465 then a full 20ma retest is incoming..
To keep it simple, long qqq early to 476 then wait for a pullback or short it back down to 465-468.. if those areas hold then switch back long and ride it up to 480+
Vix
Minor falling wedge showing at gap support 24.80 .. if this pattern plays out thin Vix could pop back up to 31 or 20sma which could see markets start the week in the red but unless vix can reclaim 32.00 then this is just a dead cat bounce that will give you a good entry to long equities
I won't go into the tech Sectors but the overall picture I think is a melt up to the WEEKLY 50MA on Sectors and indexes
I still can't see this market overall making significant ground to ATH.. the leading INDEX TVC:NYA is showing a Decade long Rising wedge which is the biggest I've ever seen.
Since 2010 this resistance has not broken and If spy pushes back up near 600 then NYA will tag this again which means we are headed back down before the summer is out. Once this rising wedge is broken will make new lows and break below 400
In closing... Spy supports are
547 (Price action)
543 ( 1hour 200ma)
537( 20ma daily)
I don't think spy will lose 543 before 555 comes... once you see NASDAQ:QQQ tag 476 be weary of being long, wait for the pullback then long NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY to their weekly 50ma
Opinion
Job numbers are released this week Friday which is the beginning of "SELL in MAY " seasonality.
All of the fed speakers have said that if jobs come in strong than they won't vote for a cut.
Feds don't cut on May7th and Trump throws a tantrum and market sells again..
This scenario is the reason I think the market will maximize these big tech earnings to get the upside move out of the way before early may. Also next month the economic data (Ppi,cpi,pce,pmi) will give the first glimpse of what damage the tariff are doing / will do.
So buckle up come May
SPY EARNINGS WEELY AAPL AMZN MSTR METASPY WEELY - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta will report earnings.
This week we have important earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta. We believe there could be a strong move in the SPY driven by the earnings reports, as well as by key economic data like unemployment figures, GDP, and Consumer Confidence. Based on these factors, we expect high volatility and see the potential for the SPY to move within the range of 530–520 on the downside and 560–580 on the upside.
$SPY April 28, 2025AMEX:SPY April 28, 2025
15 Minutes.
We had 3 days without any gap issues.
So, Some consolidation.
So, if we take the low 508.46 as bottom for the last fall then for the extension 508.46 to 544.44 to 533.8, we have 557 as initial target.
A retracement to 538-542 levels will be good as averages will converge slightly for a move towards 563.
For this holding 533-534 is very important.
SPDR Q2FY25 : WEB OF LIESprice will reverse at one of the points
-33% worst case
this is just a continuation to my recession post
Will this holdI published this yesterday as note and it didn't update my 509ish idea:
Seems to be a battle
Into the Close, the bull and bear casesA longer video of what may be possible. Remember, the bias is up and so any bearish ideas are only that for now. There does appear to be a larger wedge/triangle forming, I talk about it towards the end of the video. Have a great weekend.
$SPY "Hidden" Bear FlagLooking at price action on multiple time frames with a focus on today's price action + volume bearish divergence within a "hidden" bear flag.
SPY Tech Brkdown: Bullish Momentum Building into Key Resistance
SPY Technical Breakdown: Bullish Momentum Building into Key Resistance Zones
Analyzing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on the 4-hour timeframe. As of the latest candle, SPY trades at $547.37, up 0.15%, and is showing signs of sustained bullish momentum after a recent pullback. For swing and short-term traders, this setup could present a strategic opportunity.
🔍 Price Action and Volume Analysis
SPY has shown a textbook recovery from April lows, bouncing cleanly from support around the S2 pivot at $515.50. Volume is also increasing on up candles, indicating institutional buyers may be stepping in. The 4-hour chart structure suggests a healthy uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
🎯 Key Fibonacci Pivots and Resistance Zones
This chart includes weekly Fibonacci pivots, providing clear areas to watch:
R1: $530.33
R2: $545.15
R3: $554.32
Currently, SPY is trading just above R2. If it breaks and holds above this level, the next target lies at R3, which could act as a resistance zone and potential area for profit-taking.
🧠 Indicator Insights: VWAP and Bollinger Band Strategy
The lower chart panel features a strategy combining VWAP and Bollinger Bands, labeled "BBofVWAP with entry at Pivot Point." It triggered a +40 signal recently near the VWAP-Pivot level, reinforcing the bullish thesis. The slight expansion in Bollinger Bands hints at rising volatility, possibly paving the way for a bigger move.
📈 Bullish Scenario
If SPY maintains strength above $545.15, we may see a continuation toward $554.32 (R3). A strong close above R3 could signal a bullish breakout with potential to test new highs.
🔻 Bearish Case to Watch
On the flip side, failure to hold above R2 and a breakdown below $530.33 could indicate a bull trap. In this scenario, $515.50 or even $506.34 (S3) could come back into play.
ORB Breakout PullbackWaiting for SPY to break my 15 min ORB on the 5 and/or 15 min time-frame then I'll enter on pullback if it holds, especially if it hold at the 9 EMA, Volume supports and the VIX is inline as well. If VIX up SPY down and vice versa. Also, will confirm on 30 min timeframe for more confirmation. Let's see. Patience is key.
SPY Trade Plan – April 25 Saw a triangle forming on the 5 and 15 min charts. My plan is to wait for the breakout at 549, then catch the pullback to 547. I wanted the 9 EMA to hold and a green candle to confirm before getting in.
I got my entry at 548.50, stop at 547, and my first take profit at 550, second at 552.
The whole point of this trade for me is to being patient. I didn’t want to chase. I wanted to follow my rules:
✅ Wait for pullback
✅ Respect the 9 EMA
✅ Confirmation candle
Opening (IRA): SPY June 20th 375 Short Put... for a 3.74 credit
Comments: High IVR/>21 IV. Starting to ladder out here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Will generally look to roll up at 50% max to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit if >45 DTE remain in the expiry and IVR/IV remains sufficient to collect 1% of the strike price in credit at 16 delta or less.
Opening (IRA): SPY May 16th 385 Short Put... for a 4.04 credit.
Comments: High IVR, >21 IV. Sticking a little pickle in here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit which is quite a bit out of the money at the 8 delta.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 380.96
Max Profit: 4.04
ROC at Max: 1.06%
50% Max: 2.02
ROC at 50% Max: .54%
