3/14/2025 SPY reversal or just a lil' bit more before a bounce? Key Observations:
1. Significant Downtrend:
• The recent price action shows a notable decline from its highs, suggesting strong selling pressure.
• The price has fallen to a major support zone around $551.42, close to a longer-term uptrend line (green line).
2. Support & Resistance Levels:
• $563.91 – A previous support level turned resistance after the recent decline.
• $551.42 – Currently being tested as a support level.
• $539.44, $518.36, and $510.27 – Potential next support levels if price continues downward.
3. Trendline Test:
• The long-term uptrend line is being tested right now. If it holds, SPY could see a bounce.
• If it breaks below, it might lead to a deeper correction towards $539.44 or lower.
4. Indicators:
• Stochastic RSI (middle panel):
• Currently in oversold territory, suggesting that selling momentum is strong, but a potential bounce could occur.
• MACD (bottom panel):
• The histogram is deeply negative, showing strong downward momentum.
• The MACD lines are still bearish but may start flattening, which could indicate slowing bearish momentum soon.
Prediction for Tomorrow & Near-Term:
• Bullish Scenario:
• If $551.42 and the trendline hold, SPY may attempt a bounce toward $563.91 resistance.
• Confirmation would require bullish momentum on lower timeframes and increased volume.
• Bearish Scenario:
• If SPY breaks below $551.42 and the trendline, expect further downside to $539.44 and possibly $518.36 in the coming days.
• A continued negative MACD and weak Stoch RSI would reinforce this bearish outlook.
Conclusion:
• Critical level to watch: $551.42.
• If SPY closes above it, we could see a short-term rebound.
• If it breaks below, expect more downside pressure toward $539.44 and $518.36.
