Spy is going downIt looks like it from trend analysis. Latest news and trend is pointing for correction move
S27 trade ideas
Rally Over? The Perfect Storm for a Major Pullback—Not Forever
Two years of relentless upside just met its first real threat: 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada, 10% on China, and global backlash that isn’t fading anytime soon. Friday’s pause wasn’t hesitation—it was the market bracing for impact.
I hope I'm wrong but this does seem like the perfect setup for a multi-week (or longer) correction. Most stocks won’t be spared, just some will bleed slower.
While short-term turbulence looks inevitable, the long-term picture remains strong. The U.S. is tackling its debt aggressively, and once the dust settles, we’ll likely see the economy emerge stronger—setting the stage for another leg higher.
#S&P500 #MarketShift #BearishShortTerm #BullishLongTerm
$SPY February 3, 2025AMEX:SPY February 3, 2025
Weekly
We will consider 2 lows.
218 made in 2020 and 348 made in 2022.
Now for the move 218 to 473 to 362.
100% move for the extension i218 to 473 is 612 levels.
That is nearly achieved around 610 levels.
Now for the extension drawn from 348 to 459 to 409 1.618 extension is around 591.
This is also done.
However, in monthly time frame for the extension 218 to 479 to 348 100% extension is at 620 levels. Which is the next target.
At the moment daily is strong.
We have 9,21 and 50 converging.
100 averages are at 586 levels.
So, if any fall I expect good support around those levels.
60 Minutes.
As written earlier AMEX:SPY in a box.
Gaps, long bars need to be sorted out.
200 hourly is at 596 levels being bottom of box.
So, I will dell only below that.
For the rise 575 to 610.78 50% retracement 593 levels.
AMEX:SPY already attempted once that level and bounced back to 609 levels.
So, for the rise 594.64 to 609.96 holding 599-600 is important for uptrend to continue.
SPY: First week of FebruaryI have no opinion on SPY for next week.
The price targets and current trajectory are shared in the video.
As of now, SPY continues to follow the Bullish annual trajectory. All signs remain bullish for the most part.
The only concern is the current economic antics underway between Canada, USA and Mexico.
This situation has happened before and the market responded starkly.
Its best to remain optimistically cautious in my opinion.
That's it for now!
Safe trades everyone!
SPY Move Down Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in an uptrend
So we are bullish biased
Long-term, however the index
Has hit a horizontal resistance
Level of 610.93$ and we are
Already seeing a local bearish
Pullback from the level
So we will be expecting
A further local move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Lookin' For a LowHey traders,
After a large sell-off Friday, the question is, how are we looking going into next week?
We're using all technicals for this one with a sprinkle of economic news. Considering tariffs and deportations, "disruption" of goods, etc. I would say we are looking for more downside with the economic insecurity.
I expect the VIX or UVXY to start climbing, this may even be the start to the much needed 20% correction the market needs, but I'm not quite that ambitious yet.
Opening bell on Monday could be a DCB (Dead Cat Bounce), with a quick pop and drop type scenario. After all, it is the tail that wags the dog.
Looking for the low, long-term trend line dating back to October of 2023 would put us somewhere in the range of 578-581 and by the way, I think we're going even lower. That price, for now, is the target.
I'll keep it short and simple for this one, it's a pretty straight forward analysis. Overhead resistance, bearish sentiment, and a lingering correction.
Thanks for reading. 🙏
Bearish on SPYAfter gapping down last week, we consolidated for the remainder of the week and successfully filled the gap. February is likely to be a bearish month. There’s a possibility that a double top has formed, and if we fail to break last week’s high while dropping below 600, a sharp decline could follow.
Key support levels to watch if SPY moves lower next week:
595
575
567 (a break below this level makes 540 highly probable).
SpyNow turn it around!
2 targets on Spy this week.. the first is 589 gap support.. Also the weekly 20sma is around 589-590 and if you look at your weekly chart fawkery abounds nears the weekly 20.
If we break below weekly 20 which I would say is a 50/50 then price will double to back to 575 or lower trendline like so
Looking at the charts you'll notice something, Spy hit this ATH in Dec led by Tech , this most recent push though was led by Cyclicals, financials, Healthcare.. so let's look at the above
Cyclicals
TVC:NYA - Represents 3000 stocks ..
Triple bottom completed at ATH .. price is overextended and closed with a dark cloud cover Bearish candle
AMEX:XLF
My sell signal really lit up here . Similar triple bottom as NYA..
Daily money flow lit up overbought
Rising wedge here at ATH..
Bearish engulfing candle
Trump election gap is my long term target but the 20/50 is my immediate target at 49.50
AMEX:XLV
Price stopped at a brick wall here. I'm not surprised though. This sector got really extended and when price approaches the 200sma extended it rarely passes .
Resistance areas
148 price action
Daily 200sma
Weekly 50sma
Immediate target pullback is 144 gap close.
So the 3 sectors pushing spy the last 2weeks are showing a pullback coming this week.
As far as tech goes , you can check out my QQQ post..
10yr chart and VIX look prime for a explosive move next week. Both are showing a bullish falling wedge
TVC:TNX 10yr chart
TVC:VIX
If by surprised price gaps up .
Entries
1hour chart 20/50sma + 5min 200sma + trendline = good short Entry 603-605.. stop loss over 607
If price gaps down.. short below 599.00 stop loss 602.00
Bearish Engulfing Reaction on First Round of New TariffsTrump plans new tariffs: 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods, starting Saturday (Feb 1, 2025). Citing fentanyl and immigration concerns, the move threatens $1.6 trillion in North American trade, shaking markets and weakening regional currencies.
Trump's tariffs during his first term caused significant market volatility. Major tariff announcements, particularly against China, led to sharp declines, such as the Dow's 724-point drop in March 2018. Stocks of companies with China exposure, like Caterpillar and Boeing, were hit hardest. Conversely, signs of trade agreements or de-escalation often led to market rebounds, highlighting investor sensitivity to trade policy uncertainty.
Right now I believe we are in the beginning phase of the tariff dispute where retaliation ("tit for tat") headline risk remains heightened as we wait for the official response from Mexico, Canada, and China. This I believe will put continued pressure on AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM until there is a de-escalation off-ramp.
SPY bear target to 590.
Plan Your Trade : Behind The Scenes - Learning PerspectiveI created this video to help answer a question from a follower.
One of the biggest concerns for traders is how to use my research/info in a way that benefits them.
My Plan Your Trade videos are based on Daily & Weekly price patterns/cycles. I won't delve into the Intraday research much because it is almost impossible to predict 2 to 10-minute price bars/action throughout the day when new hits and external price data may dramatically change how price moves throughout the day. I would have to continue making videos every 30 to 45 minutes to help you understand the dynamics of intraday price action.
Either way, watch this video to learn a bit more about my research and why I'm trying to help traders learn to make better decisions.
I'm really not here to tell you what to trade - or when to trade. I'm here to help you learn to make better trading decisions ON YOUR OWN.
I try to help you learn to become a more knowledgeable and skilled trader by sharing some of my advanced research and demonstrating patterns, setups, price levels, and Cycle Patterns.
The only thing I can do to help you become a better trader is to help you learn better skills and techniques. If you treat trading like gambling, you'll go broke (often). If you understand trading as a process of grabbing profits when efficient and limiting risks, you'll survive and grow your account over time.
It's really that simple.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Rising WedgeIf SPY fails to break ATH today, you will see a pattern open for drawback. With tariff news and jobs report looming into next week, it will be possible to see sub-600 prices next week.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Jan 31 : GAP PotentialAs we move into the end of January 2025, I'm still watching for technical failure near these higher levels. On Monday, we saw a huge breakdown in the markets just days after my Jan 21-23 Top prediction. Now, as we are moving into the Feb 9-11 DeepV base/bottom pattern - I've been expecting the markets to move into a downward trending phase - which has not happened yet.
The way I see the markets right now and how I would offer a general interpretation of the trend is "struggling to find/set a new trend".
In other words, the markets are really congested in a wide range. I believe the markets will attempt to move downward after today's opening GAP higher.
I believe the markets are going to continue to struggle to find support and trade in a downward-sloping consolidated price range until Q3/Q4:2025.
I believe the markets are reacting to earnings and continued support right now, but that will ultimately resolve as a breakdown phase over the next 60+ days - leading to the multiple BASE/BOTTOM patterns my cycle research suggests will happen.
So, I continue to explain what I see in the context of the broader cycle phases.
Gold and Silver may rally a bit today - but we have a CRUSH pattern on Monday - so try not to carry any positions over the weekend.
BTCUSD is struggling to move away from very strong consolidation. It is also setting up multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns. I believe we need to be patient as BTCUSD struggles to find a new trend. Right now, I see more downside potential than upside potential.
I would offer one warning about today. Today's opening GAP will likely prompt a breakdown in price (moving downward) as we head into next week.
I believe next week will be very volatile. Buckle up.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Cycles & TA: 1/30/25Today I focus on the general stock market using the SPY to get an idea of where we are and were we are going. Things are looking bearish AF and a possible surprise crash is now day or weeks away. Many warnings in this video.
SPY Technical Analysis: for Jan. 31Market Structure Analysis:
SPY is trading within a symmetrical wedge, suggesting consolidation with a potential breakout approaching. Recent price action indicates higher lows, creating an upward bias, but resistance around $610 needs to be cleared for confirmation of further upside.
Support and Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Support: $600
* Key Support: $590 (aligned with the PUT Support Zone)
* Immediate Resistance: $610
* Major Resistance: $620 (Gamma Wall with strong Call resistance)
Indicators Analysis:
* MACD: Momentum is slightly bullish but flattening, signaling caution for overextension.
* Stochastic RSI: Currently overbought, which could lead to a short-term pullback or pause in the rally.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Insights:
* Positive Gamma is dominant, with the highest Call Resistance at $620.
* Put support is strong around $590, creating a likely floor unless broader market sentiment shifts.
Trade Setup Suggestions:
1. Bullish Breakout:
* Entry: Above $610
* Target: $620
* Stop Loss: Below $600
2. Bearish Rejection:
* Entry: Below $600
* Target: $590
* Stop Loss: Above $610
Outlook:
Today, SPY is likely to test the upper boundary of the wedge. A breakout above $610 could lead to strong bullish momentum targeting $620. However, if rejected, SPY may retrace towards $600 or even $590, especially if market sentiment weakens.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
forecast S & P 500 / The peak will be soonMethods of building and temporary cycles, a forecast for SPY is built
The probability of correction is more than 75%
Spy Road To $615You bet we are in this lol!!! What you thought is was that quick..... I don't think so, i will be updating accordingly, will Chinas A.I. destroy ours or is it hype we will see but in the meantime lets go bulls, Good Luck Traders and safe Trades
Where we headed?! Spy looking to fill gap up? Or fall?Spy could retest Demand zone back at 588 range, soon as ga fills just be mindful of the rug pull down unless we breakout and test 610 and up to 613-615 range top of the channel and for a new ATH. Rock with me see where he headed!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 1-30 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will attempt a minor rally in early trading, possibly targeting the 605 resistance level, then shift/rollover into a downward price trend (the TOP pattern) and being to move downward into the pre-DeepV low levels I've suggests (possibly near 585-588).
At that point, I suspect we'll get a few days of consolidation before we see the DeepV breakdown take place near Feb 11-13 (which may actually start on Friday the previous week).
Overall, I'm expecting the markets to roll into downward trending over the next 7 to 10+ days.
Gold and Silver are moving higher - which is great to see (finally). Maybe all Gold needed was to roll to the newer contract to finally break above the $2820 level. lol
Who knows.
This is the start of the BIG RALLY (Expansion Phase) in metals that should last almost all year. If my research is correct, Gold and Silver will reach a peak level near July-October 2025.
Bitcoin has moved into an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern that may prompt a rally up to resistance near $108,450.
At this point, the inverted EPP pattern is in the consolidation phase and I'm watching for it to break above $105,500 (moving to the ultimate high), or below $100,270 (as an invalidation breakdown move).
The next 5+ trading days should be very interesting for everyone.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersAll right today is the day after FOMC and some big earnings and because we had big earnings yesterday we have a pretty wide trading range today so just because we are options are we could have a more volatile day
The expected move on today’s contract is between 596 and 608. We did close underneath 35EMA and we have a red signal line.
If we get about the 35 EMA today which future so far are taking us above, we do have a down gap from yesterday and then a down gap from Monday that we haven’t completely filled yet. We also have an up gap from last Wednesday and they do overlap. It’s a little bit hard to see but right around 603 is the overlap .
To the downside, we have the 50 day moving average so far that has been our support this week. You could see on Monday. We did see that balance and underneath that the 30 minute two and removing average and the one hour 200 moving average those levels have been supporting us With some nice technical bounces
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Today & Tomorrow (FOMC)35EMA Underneath us, island gap above us, top of the expected move on the day is 610 above that all-time highs and 612 on tomorrow’s contract. If I was looking at bear call spreads I’d probably do 611 612. Bottom of the move on the day 599 and underneath all of that is that 50 day moving average with the 30 minute and one hour 200 Bearily positioned underneath that. Let’s go 🙌
Bearish divergenceBearish divergence between December 2024 and February 2025. Watching. No positions.
$SPY January 30, 2025AMEX:SPY January 30, 2025
15 Minutes.
We had AMEX:SPY between 604 and 599. But no trade as setup was difficult.
We have too many long bars inside the box.
Foe the fall 610.78 to 594.93 AMEX:SPY is between 599 and 605 which represents23.6% and 61.8% retracements.
So, sell is below 598 and buy above 606 only.
For the day for the fall 605.38 to 599.22 604.5 need to cross for a target 606-607 levels.
If the box breaks on either side, we should get a 4 to 5 $ move.
Symmetrical Triangle Formation – Breakout Imminent?📊 Chart Analysis:
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the chart, signaling a potential breakout soon. This pattern is characterized by lower highs and higher lows, converging into a tightening range. Such formations indicate price consolidation before a strong directional move.
🔍 Key Observations:
The price is approaching the apex of the triangle, where a breakout or breakdown is likely to occur.
Volume contraction suggests that a significant move is on the horizon.
The previous trend was bullish, increasing the probability of an upward breakout, but confirmation is necessary.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above the upper trendline with strong volume could trigger a continuation of the uptrend.
Potential targets can be calculated by measuring the height of the triangle and projecting it upwards.
Target if breaks above: $610
📉 Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown below the lower trendline may indicate trend reversal or a deeper correction.
Watching for volume confirmation and key support levels will be crucial.
Target if it breaks below: $585
