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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance 🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds 💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 24: 10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June) Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-23 : Afternoon UpdateWhat happened to the CRUSH pattern? Everyone wants to know why the CRUSH pattern didn't show up today. Well, I keep telling all of you these SPY Cycle Patterns are based on GANN, Tesla and Fibonacci price structures. They do not take into consideration news, global events, or anything outside of PRICE. They are predictive - meaning they attempt to predict potential price shapes/patterns weeks, months, and years in advance. The markets, obviously, are seeking some normalcy after the Iran conflict. I thought the CRUSH pattern would have been a perfect fit for today - but obviously the markets didn't agree. If you have been following my videos, you know I keep saying the US stock market is acting as a global hedge for risks. Traders are pouring capital into the US stock market as a way to avoid global risk factors. Traders are also pouring capital into Gold/Silver. Demand for physical metals is through the roof right now. Time will tell if my Excess Phase Peak pattern plays out as I expect or if we rally to new ATHs. Obviously, this sideways rollover topping pattern could present a breakaway in either direction. Again, my patterns are not correlated based on news or other events. They are strictly price-based. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
SPY: ASI DIMENTION SHIFT TRADESPY: ASI Dimension Shift Trade Markets are no longer responding to human logic—they're reacting to macro compression and machine foresight. This trade captures the inflection point where AI and capital collide. 📌 Watch: AMEX:SPY holding above 532 = dimension support Breakdown below 518 = confirmation of SMC exit VolanX signal: “Shift registered. Volatility node expanding. Defensive alignment required.” #SPY #VolanX #SMC #AITrading #ASIDimension #MacroBreakout #WaverVanir
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY At Risk as Geopolitical Tensions Rise Jun 23 — What Monday Holds for Bulls & Bears ⚔️📉 🔍 GEX & Options Sentiment Overview: From the daily GEX chart: * Key Gamma Levels: * 📍Call Walls: 597 → 602 (supply zones), strong resistance. * 📍Put Walls: 590 → 587 → 572, significant gamma exposure to the downside. * High Volatility Zone (HVL) at 590 – a trigger level; under this, the market may accelerate downside toward 587 and even 572. * GEX Summary: * PUTS: 80.4% dominance * GEX Net: 🔴 extremely negative * IVR 23.3, still on the lower side but rising * Implication: Dealers are hedging to the downside. Gamma exposure creates risk of accelerated selloff below 590. 📊 Technical Analysis – Daily (1D) * Price: 594.28 (as of Friday close) * Trend: Daily candle broke prior support; new lower high confirmed. * Structure: * Failed to reclaim 597, now acting as local resistance * Next major demand zone: 587 * Trendline from the recent highs shows lower highs; bearish continuation forming. * Volume: Bearish candle closed with strong volume — sign of institutional distribution. ⏱️ Intraday TA – 1H Chart * CHoCH/BOS: Confirmed Break of Structure near 591, then a small rally attempt. * Micro Supply Box: 596.5–597.5 — liquidity trap if SPY rallies into it. * Support Zones: * 593.35 / 594.00 – holding Friday’s bounce. * If fails, expect sweep to 590 → 587. * Trendline Pressure: Downward diagonal trendline rejecting every bounce. Unless a full candle close over 599.50, bias remains bearish. ⚠️ Geopolitical Risk – U.S. Bombs Iran * News: U.S. launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian assets. Market now faces: * Flight to safety: TLT, Gold, and USD may rise. * Oil likely spikes — expect XLE and energy stocks to outperform. * Tech and indexes may open with gap-down risk due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty. * SPY Implications: * Risk-off behavior could amplify sell-off under 590. * Traders may hedge via VIX calls, gold futures, or SPY puts. * Watch for VIX spikes or DXY rally as confirmation of sentiment shift. 🧠 Trade Scenarios – Monday June 24 🔻 Bearish Case (High-Probability if Geopolitical Escalates) * Rejects at 596–597 zone (supply) * Entry: ~595–596 rejection * Targets: 590 → 587 → 572 (extreme GEX) * Stop: 598.5–599.2 above supply box 🔼 Bullish Case (If Market Shakes Off Iran Tension) * Breaks over 597.5, closes above 599.5 (CHoCH confirmation) * Entry: 598–599 breakout * Targets: 602 → 604.5 (2nd Call Wall) * Stop: 596.5 📌 My Thoughts: SPY is sitting on a knife’s edge. GEX is screaming downside, and now geopolitical risk adds another layer of pressure. Monday could open with volatility spikes, and if the market gaps down under 590, it might cascade to 587 fast. Only a reclaim above 599.5 invalidates the bearish structure — and even then, macro headlines might limit upside. Stay nimble. Hedge if holding longs. 🧭 Action Plan for Monday: * Scalpers: Watch the 596–597 rejection zone — quick puts may work well. * Swing traders: Use HVL 590 as pivot. Lose it? Target 587. * Hedgers: VIX calls or GLD may provide cushion. * Macro watchers: Monitor oil (USO), DXY, and bonds (TLT) for risk-on/off cues. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Max Profit: 5.13 ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04% Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
4
Long Trade Idea: SPY (S&P 500 ETF)!🧠 📅 Timeframe: 30-Minute 📈 Type: Long Position 📐 Setup: Tight consolidation breakout + bullish wedge pattern 📍 Trade Details: Entry: $620.39 (breakout from rising wedge) Stop Loss: ~$618.80 (below wedge support) Target 1: $622.34 (minor resistance) Target 2: $624.56 (major resistance zone) 🔎 Technical Breakdown: Price formed a tight rising wedge, squeezing under resistance Bullish breakout confirmed above consolidation Strong uptrend continuation — higher highs + higher lows SPY remains strong despite market hesitation 🎯 Risk/Reward Outlook: Risk: ~$1.59 Reward: Up to ~$4.17 RR > 2.5:1 — ideal structure for breakout traders 💬 Caption (for Social/Chart Post): “SPY breaks higher! 💥📈 Wedge breakout signals bullish momentum 🟢 Clean setup toward $624+ zone 🔓 Watch for continuation above $622.34!” #SPY #LongTrade #BreakoutSetup #S&P500 #ProfittoPath #ETFTrading
AMEX:SPYLong
by ProfittoPath
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Remains Under Pressure The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May—still in contraction territory. Tariff-induced uncertainty and rising input costs continue to weigh on factory activity, with new orders still weak and employment contracting 📈 Global Factory Rebound Led by India & Europe While U.S. factories struggle, India hit a 14-month high in its manufacturing PMI at 58.4, and euro‑zone factory orders stabilized at 49.5—the first sign of recovery in over three years. Asia-Europe divergence may shift global capital flows . 🏦 Powell Says Tariffs Are Delaying Rate Cuts Fed Chair Powell warned at the ECB forum in Sintra that elevated inflation—driven in part by Trump-era tariffs—has postponed the timeline for U.S. rate cuts. The Fed’s dot-plot now indicates only two cuts for 2025, with markets adjusting accordingly 💵 Dollar Nears 3½-Year Lows The U.S. dollar weakened further, trading near a three-and-a-half-year low amid soft PMI data, a dovish Fed tilt, and renewed optimism over U.S.–Canada trade talks 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 2: (No major scheduled U.S. economic data) Market focus shifts to upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3, Powell's remarks, and trade-talk headlines. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #manufacturing #Fed #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Mounts Decline on Fed Credibility Concerns The U.S. dollar dropped to a 3½-year low against the euro after reports that President Trump is considering replacing Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. The move fueled market concern about the Fed’s independence and prompted traders to raise the likelihood of a July rate cut to 25%, with nearly 64 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end 📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of Powell’s Testimony Traders remain on edge as Fed Chair Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony continues. He reiterated caution, noting inflation risks tied to tariffs despite growing calls for easing, keeping interest-rate expectations in limbo . 📈 S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs in Second-Biggest Bi‑Monthly Rally The S&P 500 has notched its second-largest May–June rally on record (6.2% in May, further gains in June), bolstered by cooling inflation, easing Middle East tensions, and strong AI earnings momentum led by Nvidia. Bull-case scenarios could push the index to fresh highs 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 26: (No major U.S. economic release—markets are focused on Powell’s remaining testimony and global risk dynamics.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #geopolitics #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY- Premarket readPre-Market Read – June 23 AMEX:SPY Premarket High: 595.15 Premarket Low: 592.15 Bias: Leaning Bearish Price got rejected again at that 600–602 zone — that’s been a wall. All the EMAs (9/50/200) are stacked tight, which usually means something’s brewing. Institutions bought heavy down around 572–579 — they’re already green, so they might start selling into strength. I’m expecting chop between 593–595 off the open. I’ll probably wait out the first 15 min and let the ORB build. If we break out, I’m watching both sides, but I lean put.
AMEX:SPYShort
by davekclinton76
579 spy incoming?I posted this a week or so ago. I think we are finally going to have the momentum, or lack thereof, to make it down to fill the rest of that gap. I have noticed that large gaps that leave a small gap below(you must adjust the indicator to show it) almost always get filled before continuing up. This 579 level also matches up perfectly with the 20ema on the weekly which should provide further support. I will be looking for this level all week while being aware of any short squeezes that could occur on the way down. Will definitely go long at this 579 level as I think we will have a very green July.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Fraggle_Rock
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment 🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction 📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses 🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile ⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 23 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June) 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May) 📅 Tuesday, June 24 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June) Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress 📅 Wednesday, June 25 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May) 📅 Thursday, June 26 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate) 📅 Friday, June 27 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Low frequency trading (LFT) vs HFTHey fellow tarders and financial mojol, I've got some insider info that's going to blow your minds! 🤯 According to my top-secret sources (aka my pet parrot who squawks numbers at me), low-frequency trading algorithms have finally figured out the true fair price of the S&P 500. Drumroll, please... It's $550! That's right, folks, all those high-frequency trading bots are currently aiming for this magical number as we speak. But wait, there's more! The next step in this thrilling financial adventure involves radiowaving all the way down to $400. Yes, you heard it here first. We're talking about some serious next-level trading strategies that involve actual radio waves. Who needs fiber optics when you've got good old-fashioned radio, right? So, buckle up and get ready for the ride of your life. The market's about to take a trip back to the good old days when $550 was the dream and $400 was just a stone's throw away. Happy trading, and remember, if your broker gives you weird looks, just tell them you're tuning into the market's frequency! 📡💸
AMEX:SPYShort
by protarder