SPY: Last week of April Hey everyone!
These are just my thoughts on SPY for next week.
Not advice of course.
Be safe and I hope you all have a great week!
S27 trade ideas
Signs of a possible topBoth spy and vix reached a possible ending target today. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow but right now my feeling is either we topped or there will be one more final squeeze to 5600 tomorrow.
SP500 Entanglement of Macro Price ActionFib interconnectedness of 2 complete macro cycles
Linear coverage of the market derived from the structure:
Dot com bubble cycle ⌒ Low (march '94) ➡️ Peak '00 ➡️ Crisis bottom
Housing cycle ⌒ Low '02 ➡️ Peak '07 ➡️ Low March '09
Spy Squeeze Theory $571The Liquidity Mirage: SPY’s $550 Trap?
SPY closed the day pressing into the $547–$550 zone — a major inflection level. Afterhours strength has sparked interest, but beneath the surface, this may be setting up for a high-stakes trap.
AlphaPulse Thesis:
If SPY opens or pushes above $550, our models signal one of the ugliest liquidity grabs in recent months. The move could extend to $561, even possibly squeezing to $571. But the velocity and volume behavior at these levels screams manipulated exit ramp.
Trade Expectation:
After this fake breakout move, we anticipate a sharp retrace targeting the $525–$520 zone, where true value buyers may re-emerge.
Indicators Flashing Red:
Volume Surge Divergence
MACD Overextension
Z-Score Volatility Spike
Options Flow: Put Walls Below $530
Watchlist Trigger Level:
Short Bias: Above $550
Breakdown Confirmed: Below $543
Target: $522 initial, $520 extended
Strategy Summary:
This is a classic liquidity run — institutions baiting breakouts to dump heavy bags. Be nimble, stay informed, and let JoeWtrades guide your precision.
— JoeWtrades, AlphaPulse Terminal™
SPY in Focus: Tactical Day Trading Amid a Bullish RecoveryAs of early May, SPY consolidates around $560–$570, testing former support-turned-resistance.
On the daily chart, the market is pausing after a rapid rally, with $610 as major resistance and $540–$485 as key support. The 1-hour chart reflects a solid uptrend with recent consolidation between $555–$568, while the 15-minute chart shows intraday weakness with critical support at $560.
Three trading strategies emerge: (1) Bullish breakout, buying above $564–$568 with targets up to $580;
(2) Bearish breakdown, shorting below $560 with downside to $545; and
(3) Range trading, buying/selling within $558–$568 using tight stops. Confirmation via volume and candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing or hammer) is essential.
Short-term bias is bullish, but with caution—if SPY holds $560, it could retest $570 or break higher. A drop below $556 invalidates the bullish outlook.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 8, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 8, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing concerns over rising inflation and economic risks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans for policy changes.
🤝 U.S.-China Trade Talks Scheduled
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief negotiator Jamieson Greer are set to meet China's economic head He Lifeng in Switzerland, marking a potential step toward resolving trade tensions. The announcement has positively influenced global markets.
📈 Record $500 Billion Share Buyback Plans
U.S. companies have announced a record-breaking $500 billion in share buybacks, reflecting growing hesitation to make capital investments amid economic uncertainty driven by President Trump's trade policies. Major contributors include Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ), and Visa ( NYSE:V ).
⚠️ Recession Warnings from Economists
Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff warns that a U.S. recession is likely this summer, primarily driven by President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. He suggests that markets are overly optimistic and not adequately accounting for the risks.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 8:
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET: Continuing Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Productivity (Q1 Preliminary)
8:30 AM ET: Unit Labor Costs (Q1 Preliminary)
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March Final)
10:30 AM ET: Natural Gas Storage
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Spy Game Plan for today If the market continues its bullish momentum, we could see a retest of the 200-day moving average around $570. This level will act as key resistance, and a breakout above could open the door for new highs. However, if Powell’s tone leans hawkish or the minutes reflect a more cautious stance on rate cuts, we could see AMEX:SPY crack below its current trendline. In that scenario, look for potential support and a bounce around the low $550s—specifically in the $552–$550 zone.
480 Was Our Low This YearTrading Fam,
In my last post, I speculated that there were (2) two great areas to start your DCA back into this market. The first was at SPY 505 and I postulated that if we dropped lower, we could hit SPY 460. Not quite. Looks like our downward trajectory reached it's bottom exactly at that ascending white support line. Now here's the interesting part. That trendline was actually started way back in March of 2020, the Covid-19 crisis, when Trump was also president. I should have seen this trend but I don't think I had it drawn in until more recently. This trendline has obviously proven extremely significant and I'd advise that you draw it into your charts as well. We now have something to watch closely. I suspect that if price breaks down from here, it won't be pretty. This year, I don't think that will happen. I believe we saw our low this year upon the touch of that trendline at 480. So, if you didn't get your money started back in at the 505 level, you were not given much of a chance afterwards.
Today we can see that our price is back above numerous levels of resistance which will now act as support. Firstly, that 505 level. Next, the VRVP point of control (yellow horizontal line). Third, that pink ascending trendline. That was huge and we have confirmed the move above it now on the daily. If we stay above it by market close on Friday, we're good. That will be enough to also provide us weekly confirmation.. Finally, we are sitting right on support at 563, that pink horizontal line. All of these bullish breaks show me that price should remain above our white ascending trendline started in March of 2020 for some time, and I am guessing the rest of the year.
I remain steadfast in my bias towards my SPY Target #3 at 670-700 before sometime next year. Two targets hit so far. One to go. I am fairly confident we will hit it. At which point, it will be time to make some serious decisions about what to do next.
✌️Stew
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 1 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 1st, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
SPY - short-term analysishi traders,
Let's have a look at SPY on 1h time frame.
As we can see the price created a double bottom and with the catalyst (Trump paused tariffs), the price pumped 11%.
It's approaching the resistance area and bulls are not out of the woods yet.
I expect a short-term pullback.
RSI is very overbought in 15 15-minute time frame which confirms this thesis.
Entry, target, and stop loss are shown on the chart.
Risk-reward ratio: 3,13
12pm updateThe move up looks finished. If it's correct that a C wave is next we will have minimal bouncing down to around 540 on SPY. Vix is now showing 4 hour bullish divergence, so an attempt at 28 resistance is expected (as of now)
Candlestick Patterns + Trend and Momentum: A Perfect CombinationCandlestick patterns provide valuable insights into price action, showing potential reversals, continuations, or market indecision. However, to significantly improve their effectiveness, combining candlestick analysis with trend and momentum indicators is essential. Here’s how you can use these combinations to trade with more confidence and accuracy.
1. Why Candlestick Patterns Matter
Candlestick patterns visually represent traders’ psychology through price movements, including four key prices: Open, Close, High, and Low. Some of the most common and useful patterns include:
Doji: Indicates market indecision and potential reversals.
Hammer & Hanging Man: Signals possible trend reversals at support or resistance.
Engulfing Pattern: Often marks the beginning of a significant reversal.
Morning/Evening Star: Combination patterns that strongly suggest a trend reversal.
2. Adding Trend and Momentum Indicators
Candlestick patterns alone might lead to false signals or confusion. By pairing them with other technical tools, such as moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), you gain crucial context to confirm the reliability of the patterns.
Here’s how:
Trend Alignment:
Using moving averages, such as the 20 or 50-period EMA, helps confirm whether a bullish candlestick pattern appears in an uptrend (strengthening the signal) or countertrend (potentially weaker signal).
Momentum Confirmation:
Oscillators like the RSI or MACD can confirm the underlying momentum behind a candlestick pattern. For instance, a bullish engulfing pattern becomes more reliable if it coincides with RSI moving upward from oversold territory or MACD showing a bullish crossover.
Volume Analysis:
Higher volume on the candle that forms the pattern typically confirms increased market interest and strengthens the validity of the signal.
3. Practical Example: Bullish Engulfing + RSI
Imagine you spot a bullish engulfing pattern forming at a clear support level after a downtrend:
Step 1: Identify the Pattern: Confirm the bullish engulfing visually.
Step 2: Check RSI: Ensure RSI is below 30 or rising, signaling oversold conditions and potential bullish momentum.
4. Why This Approach Works
Enhanced Accuracy: Combining candlestick signals with trend and momentum indicators increases signal reliability.
Improved Risk Management: Clearer signals mean more confident entries and better-defined stop-loss levels.
Reduces False Signals: Multiple confirmations reduce the risk of false breakouts or reversals.
5. Final Tips
Always look for multiple confirmations (trend, momentum, volume) before making trade decisions based solely on candlestick patterns.
Be patient—waiting for full confirmation can help avoid premature trades.
Regularly backtest and practice recognizing these combined signals to strengthen your trading strategy.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Q1 GDP Contraction Raises Recession Fears
The U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years, down 0.3% in Q1. Weaker government spending and a rise in imports ahead of Trump’s tariff policies are weighing on growth outlook.
📈 Big Tech Lifts the Market
Strong earnings from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) have boosted sentiment. Meta’s revenue guidance and capex surge point to aggressive growth positioning in AI and infrastructure.
🏛️ Treasury Refunding Outlook in Focus
Markets are watching the quarterly refunding announcement for clues on upcoming bond issuance. This could influence rate volatility as the Treasury balances deficits and market demand.
🌐 Risk-On Mood Despite Macro Headwinds
Global stocks notched a 4-week high as traders bet on resilient earnings and central bank policy steadiness, even as U.S. macro data softens.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 1:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
Tracks new unemployment filings – a key gauge of near-term labor market stress.
📈 Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
Measures ongoing unemployment benefit recipients, reflecting persistent joblessness.
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET)
Reports monthly change in total construction outlays — a direct measure of real economy investment.
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET)
Provides a snapshot of U.S. factory activity. Readings below 50 suggest contraction.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 30 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 30, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 29 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 29, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
Leaving Breadcrumbs For A Swing Or Setting A Trap?In my previous idea, I explained why I think the price could rise to the $580s and just wanted to provide a brief update on what I’m watching for this week. The market has felt lethargic recently despite rising roughly 8.25% over the last five sessions. The days of fretting over incremental movements feels like a distant memory. Fortunately, major data releases and large cap earnings should energize the market. While “C” waves are not required to meet specific sub-wave retracements, and can go straight to their targets without a significant pullback, we should still be prepared for the possibility of being faced with market whiplash. Taking all of this into account, I think there could be a pullback - especially after noticing an important clue right in front of me.
AMEX:SPY has been rising higher for the last five sessions in a jerky uptrend from last week’s lows and is close to filling a gap/imbalance at the $555 level on the daily chart. There is also a gap from $529-$534, however the price is much closer to filling the upper gap.
Other things I’m taking note of on the daily chart are the declining volume and a MA cross confirmation. The moving averages I’m using here are HMA (13; pink) EMA (34; yellow) and SMA (200; green), and I have found the Hull Moving Average crossing the Exponential Moving Average to be a fairly reliable indicator of a reversal. HMA will cross up on Tuesday if the price stays above the EMA.
For a different perspective, the 1000R ($10) chart shows the price action a little more smoothly. I noticed that for the month of April, each time the price swung lower, it did so by around $35. If it is assumed that this pattern continues for one more swing lower in what would be wave (b) of C, the next question would be: to which retracement level it would go?
There are a lot of people on the boards who think the price will move lower on Tuesday. If the price were to fall from around Monday’s close of $550, a $35 drop would take the price back to around $515, which would result in an approximately 80% retracement of wave (a). There is nothing wrong with this, and the price could reverse and extend to $580 from there, however I think such a deep retracement into wave (a) is the less likely scenario since the goal of this larger corrective wave is to keep the momentum moving higher to sell before the market tanks. I still charted it above to show what that would look like.
Alternatively, I am expecting SPY to move higher on Tuesday and pull back Wednesday and Thursday to continue printing what appears to be clean and proportional movements here in the first major corrective wave of the bear market.
The week ahead will have several events that could determine the market’s direction. The most important news should come from GDP and Core PCE data being released before the open on Wednesday. Regardless of how the market reacts, we can assume with relative confidence that the news will contribute to a large movement in price. Since I’m suggesting a $35 move down will happen at some point, I am anticipating Wednesday will start this movement.
Above the $555 gap there is an order block that the price should be gravitating towards. This would be an ideal area to absorb buy orders before SPY gets sent down. Taking an educated guess, $565 could be a key level that marks the end of wave (a). A $35 reduction from there would see the price retrace 61.8% (0.382 level on the chart) to $530. Since there is another gap around this level, it should be a logical area for the price to move next before beginning its final rise to around $580.
…
This idea makes more assumptions than my last one, so please trust your own instincts and form your own opinions. The market can be unpredictable, so patterns can fail at any time. This is why it is important to stay vigilant.
With that being said, I expect Tuesday to be another low volume day that could take the price in any direction; including sideways. Since Wednesday’s data should be a major driving force for price activity this week, it is important to assess which level the market is targeting just before the news comes out. We’ll see what happens, but I think institutions are going to look to prolong this corrective wave while they still can and offload shares at a good price, because the next time this sells off it will go much lower.
I appreciate all of the feedback I received on my last post, and if you enjoyed this one I’d love to know what you think. Good luck to all.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 28 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 28, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
SPDR Q2FY25 : WEB OF LIESprice will reverse at one of the points
-33% worst case
this is just a continuation to my recession post
$SPY Devastating Weekly NIRVANA BEAR trap!GIANT FIBONACCI RARE HARMONIC PATTERN
Im going for a 100k with 7 cons and shares at 20k i want to multi bag 10x
All will be shared here step by step just DROP A LIKE FOR ME!
WHERE WILL THE STOCK MARKET GO FROM HERE? (April 27, 2025)In this video, we take a quick look at AMEX:SPY weekly chart to determine what's next for the overall stock market
V-shaped Recovery SPY to 570-580 We formed a diamond bottom last week and had a false breakout to the downside that quickly turned bullish after it was revealed that Trump was just "trolling" when he mentioned wanting to fire Powell. Once we broke the soft 536 resistance we moved right to the downward trendline (drawn in yellow) hovered there briefly and then cracked through it.
We ended last week with a bullish engulfing on the weekly chart and spent these first 3 days at the high.
Good earnings kept the market bullish and in the last hour a mineral deal was signed with Ukraine.
The bears have little left in the tank, Tariffs look like they are going to be solved in the near future and fear is decreasing. Promising news on Ukraine is turning the wall of worry into a wall of excitement.
This is not feeling like a bear market rally, this is looking like the next phase of a bull market.
The decline trendline from march can be flipped to bullish and we are climbing steadily on that new line, this recovery is V shaped.
I expect resistance in the 570-580 range.
