Close above daily anchored vwap on $spyI’m leaning long on AMEX:SPY after intraday close above daily anchored vwap with target towards 542
I bought calls near close on Friday will mange them on Monday morning
S27 trade ideas
$SPY Sharp Decline?! $503 Target, $493 possible 8/21, then $520Thats right folks. Your's truly with another quick thought on where I think we're headed, and FAST!! Assuming we repeat the First Half of 2022, I want to say that the next 10 days will produce a dump and a bounce. Do be careful if you're long this market. All signs point to a flash crash to $493 and then a mean bounce to retest $520. Don't forget, cash is a position. I like to keep things simple with my charts for the most part. ATM, I am looking at the 10D chart. I like the 10D chart because it has hidden divergences on RSI that prove extremely useful. As the days go on, it will get easier. Those that doubt will always learn the Hard way. Paytience will always prevail. After $520 bounce, I would assume a slow bleed to $480 into the election for a new low, followed by an Election Rally back to $530 before we come back crashing down. All of this will come with time and I'm writing it down so you can see my thought process. Everything takes time.
Drop to $503-$494
Hard Bounce to $520
Slow Bleed to $480, Previous ATH Winter 22'
Bounce to $530 for a Retest of Previous Support should we break. Good Luck out there
SPY IS A BUY+++ At $528 and $520 bounce to $527We are oversold on charts under 4 hours, and the 4 hour. One day chart has a way to go and for cloud support at $522. .5 Fib support is $528.51 was touched Friday. We should bonce to $547 then likely resume the decline based of fundamentals of a bubble economy surviving on printed money for decades and the irresponsible deficit spending since covid by both parties. I think we could have a final flush on Monday then bounce but we'll see.....
SPX: Stock Market Continues to Fall. The stock market on July 25, 2024, experienced significant movement, similar to the major trendline break in January 2022. Both periods saw heightened market volatility and uncertainty driven by macroeconomic factors.
In January 2022, the break was due to surging inflation and anticipated aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to a sharp correction across major indices. By July 2024, although inflation had moderated, it continued to influence market sentiment. Persistent inflationary pressures can lead to higher input costs, squeezing corporate profit margins and dampening earnings growth.
Uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy was pivotal in both periods . In 2022, the market grappled with the pace and magnitude of rate hikes. In 2024, despite a potential shift towards rate cuts, the uncertainty about timing and extent added complexity to market dynamics.
Investor sentiment in both periods was characterized by heightened caution. In January 2022, fears of a prolonged tightening cycle led to significant sell-offs. By July 2024, concerns shifted to the sustainability of earnings growth and potential economic slowdown.
High valuations faced pressures in both periods. In January 2022, valuations became untenable amid rising interest rates, leading to corrections. In 2024, although valuations adjusted, concerns about whether earnings growth can sustain current levels persist. If earnings do not meet expectations, further downward adjustments in stock prices could occur.
Economic slowdown fears loom large. In 2022, the fear was that aggressive rate hikes could excessively slow the economy. In 2024, despite hopes for rate cuts, concerns about a broader economic slowdown impacting corporate profits and market performance remain.
External factors such as geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties add to the risks, potentially increasing market volatility and investor caution.
While there are differences between January 2022 and July 2024, the similarities highlight potential risks for further downturns. Investors should remain vigilant and consider appropriate hedging strategies to navigate potential market volatility and downside risks.
SPY forming Head and ShouldersSPY experienced worst week since 2020. SPY is currently forming a head and shoulders pattern indicating a further selloff towards 500. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
SPY: Forecast & Trading Plan
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the SPY pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move up.
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SPY friday close practice prior to 8.5 Pre MarketBearish wedge however I feel as though earning and FOMC was catalyst. See how weekend news goes
$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.
Three Potential outcomes for the S&P 500We are seeing a clear correction in the market that has potential to turn into a full blown bear market due to a number of reasons such as rising unemployment, looming debt crisis, and geopolitical tensions. From my experience and analysis I see 3 possible outcomes in the coming weeks and months for the AMEX:SPY
The price starts to recover after another minor red day on August 5th, bouncing off support around 524.60, and will start to normalize back with the long-term bullish trend.
A head and shoulders pattern forms on the weekly chart, starting with a move down to 495, retracing back to 524.60, and then forcing a large downward move that stops just short of entering a bear market/ recession at the 200EMA (around the 450 price level), starting a new bull run as it recovers.
The events of situation 2 unfold the same way, however, price fails to bounce off the 200EMA, and we enter a full-blown recession, fueled by high unemployment, destabilization of the geopolitical climate, and civil unrest from the results of the US 2024 elections.
Two of the three predictions lead to more pain for bulls. Let’s hope situation #1 is what will happen.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and all statements made are for informational purposes formed from of my own opinion and should not be considered as investment advice.
SPY 531-524 $hello everyone, Hope you're having a good Friday. I expect spy to find support next week in the 531-524 range obviously spy has been selling off greatly due to worsening data not just inflation staying the same. What we know from Wednesday with Powell is Sept. rate cuts might not happen. This week brought a needed correction to the market along with bad earnings with a lot of companies. a lot of people have a consenus that the market goes up and down but it does not always work like that. Worsening data and concerns for our economy's future means fear. With all that bad news being said Spy has key levels in the 531- 524 and should look to hold the market for awhile in this price range. The bearish tone is weakening. AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:NVDA
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade 8-2 - The Kamala-Crush ContinuesIt's been quite a while since I've seen -3%, -4%, or even -6% on my screens.
These are HUGE price swings, and I'm still having trouble identifying why the global markets feel a major crisis has suddenly hit (unless it is all related to Kamala Harris).
This update shows you why I believe the US markets must attempt to find support near this 50% pullback range. If we can't find support at the levels I highlight on this video - then all bets are off and we could enter a much deeper price correction.
I'm still looking at the data, earnings, and other news. I see nothing that says CRASH.
I see US companies preparing for a tough summer - but still making profits.
I see the US moving into a hotly contested election.
I see consumers still spending (moderately).
I just don't see a CRASH event yet. So, I believe this is all a large panic move.
More later.
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08/02 SPY ATR Levels and RangeThere are my lines for the day, yesterday totally blew the levels out of the water, the ATR on the SPY is holding steady, but high due to the downside drips and falls we have been getting. Papa Powell has taken all need for us to go any higher off the table until mid August, my opinion. So anything that happens today in the way of upside could be associated to a new month, new positions being opened and that we are on FAFO Friday with the 0DTE Degen option buyers.... I suspect we are not out of the bleeding yet. Fear&Greed is lower at a 33 midway to falling into Extreme fear. The Geo political and domestic world is on fire, Trump cant keep himself from saying stupid comments and Harris still hasnt gotten her footing yet (my opinion)
For SCALP I am looking for quick moves through the SPOP to SR1 maybe see SR2 and breach into the STANDARD ranges at open and then quickly recced past the lower ranges past SBREAK into the S1 and S2 of the STANDARD levels.
SR2 536.90
SR1 536.16
SPOP 535.43
LAST PRICE 534.69
SBREAK 533.95
SS1 533.22
SS2 532.48
R2 542.05
R1 539.22
POP 537.52
BREAK 531.89
S1 529.65
S2 528.16
RETROGRADE SPY 8.2 BEAR MONTH Aug / Could be Bull day but definitely BEAR MONTH. You will see I’ve shown what it needs to cross to become bullish. Pre mkt it was clearing a MONTHLY single print zone if it falls below that purple zone again it’s short to 520 zone. Mercury retrograde starts Sunday 4th so choose your trades cautiously and make trade plans days in advance so the retrograde doesn’t fog up your approach.
SPY - Another Leg DownCould be just a little correction in this larger leg down. A 1 to 1 relationship between the expected wave and the first shows that SPY would find support around 523.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-2 : Breakaway In Carryover ModeAs we have all experienced over the past 6+ days - outside news events can (and often do) disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns.
I've talked about the Kamala-Crush event (just 10+ days ago) that disrupted market trends after Biden stepped down from running for POTUS in 2024.
I've talked about how capital would shift away from risks because of the sudden shift in expectations.
I've talked about how this shifting capital would likely benefit the US market and what I call (major global economies) - where capital may rush into areas considered safer than most of the rest of the globe.
Then, we saw a bloody attack on Israeli children turn the world upside down with the threat of an Israel/Iran conflict.
We are now seeing Japan really become an issue with the BOJ attempting to manage risk factors related to their economy.
In my opinion, the past 10+ days have been a series of minor crisis events (some a bit more major than minor) that have played out to disrupt the US/Global markets with huge volatility.
We don't normally see 2.5 to 5.5% price swings - EVER. These types of price swings are MASSIVE.
We are living through a disruption that may go down in history related to a global shift in expectations.
But, at the same time, we've only seen the US markets fall 3.5% from the recent highs. Certainly not a CRASH event (yet).
Honestly, I don't expect my SPY Cycle Pattern to play out very well today. I believe these outside factors are really driving price action and I've clearly tried to highlight that in this video.
If & when the markets settle and move back into more normal types of price trending (away from outside factors driving price trend) - the SPY Cycle Patterns will likely fall back into a better predictive mode.
As I stated, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. The past 10-15+ days have been very unusual (to say the least). We've seen a series of events that are really unprecedented (starting with the Kamale-Crush).
Buckle up. Today could be a very interesting day if support holds. We may see the SPY attempt to rally back above $552-554 at some point.
Get some.
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$SPY August 2, 2024AMEX:SPY August 2, 2024
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY was not able to hold 554 555 levels.
So, it gave a chance to said earlier it closed below 21 moving averages.
For the day taking the fall 554.86 to 539.43 then 546-548 will be a good level to short.
So, holding 541 -542 today I will try for a sell on rise.
On other side if close below 539 as said earlier I will aim first for 536 levels which is at the moment 200 average in 180-minute timeframe.
I spy $600Hi everyone - I wanted to make a quick post with my thoughts on the next moves for AMEX:SPY using Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Price/Time levels. I’m on my phone so I apologize if the chart screenshot looks cluttered.
AMEX:SPY is currently in a Primary W5 that should conclude in August. Yesterday we saw a spike after CPI came in cooler than expected, which completed the Minor W5/Intermediate W3 at $542.46.
The market also received disappointing news that the fed is only planning on one rate cut this year. This type of news bolsters the argument that we are entering an Intermediate W4.
I do not think this wave will last long and it could be choppy since Intermediate W2 saw a sharp move down after the extended W1. I will not go short on this trade and will wait to go long near the bottom of the channel ($530) around June 24th. As you can see on the volume profile, there is significant buying pressure at this level which will propel us into Intermediate W5.
The fifth wave will need to reach the Primary 1.618 price level and Primary 1.618 fib time marker. These levels cross on August 6th at $594. I think there will be psychological pressure to hit $600 since we’ll be in a PW5/IW5/MW5 wave. From there, I predict we enter a bear market that could also carry a negative news catalyst.
If the bear market is primarily technical without fundamental support, I predict the market will pick back up next year.
$SPY Trading Range for Friday, August 2ndll right, so tomorrow’s implied move is really big. It is $6.87 in each direction, so the implied move is between 536 and 551. The implied move on Monday’s contract is between 534 and 553. The 50-day moving average is cutting right across the trading ranges for the next two days, and we have been shopping violently around that level. Above the trading range, we have the 30-minute two moving average and the one-hour two moving average. Those are both pointing down, and actually, the one-hour two moving average is pretty flat. Then we have the four-hour two moving average underneath our trading range and right towards the bottom of the implied move for tomorrow. We do have the remainder of that gap from June. That was June when we also had CPI and PPI right around that time as well. That gap could act as support if we drop down to it tomorrow, as it has held us up for the past two weeks.
SPY BUY for bounce to $554Spy held cloud support at $536 and is trading above Fib .236 we have overhead resistance at $548 I expect it to break through and test $551 ad high as $554
SPY no mans land but look out below!It appears SPY hit it's head hard on overhead resistance and has flirted with support several times on the one day. I believe if we tap support again around $538 we will break through it to the downside. If SPY can get over the $555 resistance on a few daily candles we could test a new all time high, but that's a long shot fundamentally all companies are citing a weak consumer.
SPY: Wave 3On my AMD analysis I mentioned the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, so tomorrow's unemployment rate could signal this indicator. I was thinking we'd fill the gap at 562, but based on further analysis, it appears that we are beginning wave 3 down and today's gap fill at 554 signaled the top of wave 2. This VIX is showing signs of a breakout to the upside with the monthly chart on SPY, as well as many other stocks, is showing more selling ahead. I think META is going to be the big winner for PUT buyers since there is a sizeable gap that was created after earnings. I will post a chart on META next.
SPY PT1 is 527 and PT2 519
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle.
Currently, we have the following disposition:
1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control.
2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave.
3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength.
From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend.
A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Full Send Incoming - Through The Van Allen Radiation Belt We Go!Put on your oxygen masks ladies and gentlemen. The U.S. stock market is about to go ballistic.
You all know from my daily chart, we nearly hit the target of my inverse head and shoulders pattern to the dollar. Target was 570. One of my recent posts indicated that I was selling half at 560, taking my profit, and parking it in cash. But now, I will take that cash and pack my bags again as the market is getting ready to blow minds.
Literally, everyone is predicting a market crash soon. And that may happen. But not before a rocket launch to the moon that will rip faces off.
Pack your bags and BTFD folks. Ticket sales will be on fire for this rocket ride.
