$SPY it's time to consider taking profits.Traders should exercise caution on SPY Longs, as we are approaching the upper area of a range and overbought conditions. A wedge or ascending triangle is forming.
S27 trade ideas
Bull & Bear Options for Week of 11/25 (184-210% Last Week)We are back after another banger week for SPY options. Last week's $590 Call 12/2 confirmed twice off $586 returning intraday gains of 48-67% on Tuesday & Wednesday and reaching highs on Monday 11/25 of 184-210%
Here are this week's options:
Range: $583-$598 ($590 mid-point)
$595 PUT 12/9
Entry: 15-min candle close BELOW $598.67
Targets: $595.50, White trendline
Stop: 15-min candle close ABOVE $598.67
$605 CALL 12/9
Entry: 15-min candle close ABOVE $598.67, 15-min retest and close ABOVE $598.67
Targets: $601, $605
Stop-loss: 15-min candle close UNDER $598.67
$SPY Trade Alert from 11/25 (Update) | 31% ROI TodayOur AMEX:SPY range trading strategy is in full-effect.
We talked on livestream about trading the upside to $600 (from $598) and that trade paid out handsomely.
I think we could expect $605 tomorrow if price action continues to the upside.
I will continue to update as these trades play out, week after week!
~ Nov 26th 2024 - S&P 500 SPY ...new highs begetting new highs..S&P 500 SPY tested and held support at 584 ... now today, Nov 26th ... testing and piercing into new all time high territory again at 600.86 .... could we be into a consolidation period going into the Christmas season or will it break into new highs going into low volume traditional holiday season ... 2024 is by no means a typical year ...
Wait for the drop, seems its 550A great divergence opportunity for SPY or SPX, just a technicals
looking forward
SPY Double Top Triple Top?Possible Double or Triple Top on AMEX:SPY ?
The SPY has been hitting the same resistance level of 600.80 for the past two days. First, on November 24, 2024, and again on November 25, 2024, before pulling back.
This repeated testing of the same level raises the question: are we forming a double or triple top? Will the SPY fail to break through this level, or will it finally push past it?
Only time will tell, but we should be aware of this potential technical pattern.
Double Top
Two consecutive peaks: Two highs occur near the same price level, with a moderate decline between them.
Valley in between: A noticeable low forms between the two peaks, which serves as a support level.
Neckline: A line connecting the valley lows forms the neckline.
Breakdown: The price breaks below the neckline, confirming the Double Top pattern.
Volume: Decreasing volume on the second peak and increasing volume on the breakdown.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next.
Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle.
The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that?
If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure.
The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver.
If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down.
I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen.
So, be prepared just in case.
Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD.
Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024
Black Friday, one of the most anticipated and significant days in retail, falls on the Friday following Thanksgiving in the United States. This day is considered an early indicator of the success of the Christmas shopping season and can serve as a trigger for the so-called "Santa Claus rally" – a period of stock market growth typically observed from late December to early January. Let’s explore how Black Friday might influence the stock markets this year.
Fundamental Analysis
According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Many analysts view stimulating consumer spending as key to sustaining economic activity. Thus, Black Friday sales figures are often seen as a vital indicator of the nation’s economic health.
In 2024, Black Friday takes on added importance amid the Federal Reserve's recent cycle of interest rate cuts. Consumer spending levels during the sales period will reflect the current state of the economy, which could influence the Fed's future monetary policy direction.
Impact on the U.S. Stock Market
From 2001 to 2023, trends in the S&P 500 index around Black Friday have been variable, though generally positive. For example, the S&P 500 gained more than 1% in 2001, 2007, and 2012, while in 2009, it fell by 1.7%. This variability highlights the difficulty of finding a consistent annual pattern.
However, retail stocks often display discernible trends during this period. As noted by Yahoo Finance, some companies’ shares have shown positive momentum in the week before and after Black Friday.
Historically:
- Between 2013 and 2023, the retail sector outperformed the S&P 500 in late November.
- From 2007 to 2017, certain retail stocks within the S&P 500 delivered returns of up to 5%, compared to the index’s average return of 3% during the same period.
Technical Analysis
It’s not always straightforward. A comparison of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) and Walmart (WMT), one of the largest retail corporations, illustrates differing dynamics.
The chart below highlights fluctuations:
- Blue line: S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
- Orange line: Walmart stock (WMT)
Vertical lines mark Black Friday periods in 2022 and 2023.
Key observations:
- In 2022, Black Friday coincided with a market decline. Historically, the stock market was near critical highs, leading to heightened selling pressure.
- In 2023, Black Friday acted as a driver for both Walmart shares and the S&P 500.
Black Friday 2023
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), approximately 200 million people shopped during Black Friday 2023, spending an average of $321.41 per person – a historic record.
Major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target benefited primarily through their online platforms and effective marketing strategies, as more consumers opted for the convenience of e-commerce.
What Should Traders Expect from Black Friday 2024?
NRF forecasts suggest that in 2024:
- About 34% of Americans will shop on Black Friday.
- Spending is expected to reach another record high, with a 3% increase compared to 2023.
Furthermore, 71% of consumers surveyed by Deloitte indicated they plan to shop online, underscoring the ongoing shift toward e-commerce.
However, predicting the exact market behaviour around Black Friday 2024 is challenging. Each year is shaped by unique political and economic factors. While rising consumer spending could boost company earnings and lead to an upward trend in the S&P 500, individual factors will play a significant role. Traders will need to focus on macro trends and specific company performance indicators.
FAQ
Does Black Friday Have a Positive Impact on the Stock Market?
Black Friday's impact on the U.S. stock market is mixed. While it offers valuable fundamental data to analyse broader economic trends and consumer sentiment, its overall effect on the market is hard to track. However, Black Friday often has a more noticeable impact on retail stocks, as strong sales volumes directly influence their financial performance.
Are Stock Markets Open on Black Friday?
In 2024, Black Friday falls on 29 November, and U.S. stock markets will close earlier than usual. You can find more detailed information here.
Where Did the Term "Black Friday" Originate?
The term "Black Friday" has two main origins. The first is linked to a financial crisis in the United States in 1869 when a collapse in gold prices caused widespread market turmoil. The second explanation comes from 1960s Philadelphia, where local police coined the term to describe the chaos caused by large crowds of shoppers and tourists during the annual Army-Navy football game weekend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$SPY November 26, 2025AMEX:SPY November 26, 2025
Gap up was not sustained.
HL is still maintained.
For the rise 587.42 to 600.86 need to hold 594-596 levels for uptrend to continue in 15 minutes.
That retracement will also be 100 averages in 15 minutes.
Assuming 587.43 to 600.86 as wave 3, being a long one I expect wave to be small move from 601-603 levels.
Provided 594 is held.
Still for me not a chart to short. At the moment.
$SPY Trading Range for 11.26.24So tomorrow’s trading range is pretty straightforward. We have the 35 EMA underneath us
The implied move for tomorrow is between 594 and 601 and the only level in tomorrow’s trading range is the 35 EMA so definitely that should be on your radar and then at the very top of the implied move is all or just underneath the top of the move.
In my opinion for tomorrow, 601–602 bear call spreads are likely a good play if we break the 35 EMA the bottom of the implied move is at 594.
And 594 593 bull put spreads also look attractive to the downside. Especially since that 30 minute two and removing average is coming up underneath the bottom of the implied move.
Market bullish looking like maybe pull back then 607.Guys markets volatile nearing holiday and inauguration coming
Short week then can squeeze 607
Bull & Bear $SPY Weekly OptionsAMEX:SPY
We expect the next two weeks through Thanksgiving to be quiet before we continue on this rally into the end of year through all-time highs. This week we are focusing on the range from $583 up to $598. We have weaker levels at $586 and $591.70.
Here are our weekly options contracts for both sides of the trade. For confirmation, we use 15-30 minute candle closes over/under our entry level.
$590 CALL 12/2
Entry: Retest Confirmation OVER $586 or $583.56
Targets: ($586), $588, $591
$584 PUT 12/2
Entry: Retest Confirmation UNDER $583.56
Targets: $580.90, Long-term trendline
S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit.
Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600.
Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week.
✌️ Stew
SPY 11/22 PlanUntil we are able to break above the trendline, We will continue to chop
Look at where they closed yesterday, right at it, and rejected.
We have to be patient, the move will come...
One thing to notice though was the retest of the trendline, as of now the retest was able to close above the trendline, but we need to see volume coming in for this move to happen.
If we go below 592 again, i believe we retest 589 fast.
$SPY Trading Range for TodayAll right so today’s implied move is between 592 and 599 and add open. We capped up above 599 above previous all-time highs made new ones and pulled back down.
Tonight I’m gonna try and get these trading ranges in the videos. I’m traveling right now so it’s a little bit difficult but good luck today and I’ll see you guys tonight.
The 35 EMA is on the right side of the trading range today and be careful if it does come up into the green. I would expect pullback at that point.
SPY Might Dump MassivelyIt may be an unpopular opinion, but we see the SPY and thus the SP500 dumping massively.
This hidden bearish divergence is enormous and it would almost be a miracle if it is resolved without a sudden, sharp price drop.
