Get started
SPDR S&P500 US$SPDR S&P500 US$SPDR S&P500 US$

SPDR S&P500 US$

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview Analysis Holdings News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

S27 trade ideas

Self-Sacrifice That Seems Like Self-Destruction… But Toward What🔻 SPY down 21% | IWM down 29% from ATHs as of April 7, 2025. After months of tracking the Trump tariff narrative and comparing it with the 2018–2019 playbook, we're now living the sequel. But this time, it's happening on steroids, faster and with more chaos. 🧠 Context: Why This Isn’t Just Another Correction It’s not purely about macroeconomic numbers or earnings calls anymore. The market's volatility is now emotionally and politically driven — centered around one dominant voice: Donald Trump. He’s not just reacting to the market — he’s orchestrating the market. And every tweet or announcement can change the direction of the S&P in real time. 🔁 2018–2019 vs. 2025: Chart Overlay Insights 📉 In 2018, the first round of tariffs triggered a -20% drop in SPY — followed by a powerful reversal. 📉 In 2025, the same pattern repeats — another ~-21% drop from highs. SPY printed a nearly identical two-bottom structure This sharpens my conviction that we may have already bottomed — barring another external macro event outside the tariff story. 🧩 The Tweet Timeline Initial Setup Tweet: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" A tweet that initially seemed random, but now clearly was a setup. The Main Policy Drop: On the same day, hours later, Trump officially dropped the real bomb: a massive 125% tariff hike on China, coupled with a 90-day relief for all other nations. 📈 The market exploded: SPY ended the day +10.5% — one of the biggest intraday reversals in recent history. Fake Tweet Incident: Just a few days prior, a fake “90-day pause” tweet circulated, reportedly backed by a journalist referencing a major bank. It turned out to be false — but it caused a sharp 20-minute rally, followed by a dump when it was denied. 🪙 That wasn’t the “Golden Tweet.” But it was what I call a Silver Tweet — a smaller catalyst that injected brief optimism. 👉 Silver Tweets bring air back into a suffocating market. But the real bounce… needs a Golden Tweet. 🧨 And Then the Wildcard: Despite the massive selloff, the 10-year yield went up, not down — likely the result of a powerful player dumping bonds to counter Trump’s objective of yield suppression. But that’s not the only possible force at play: Hedge funds are now facing margin calls. This has triggered forced liquidations across equities, bonds, and even certain safe-haven positions. That’s why we’re seeing the unusual combination of rising yields and rising gold — while broader equity markets were still heading aggressively lower. This suggests: A hidden battle of titans Broad rebalancing under pressure And that Trump may no longer be fully in control of the chaos he set in motion. 🔭 Trade Zones 📌 IWM Entry: $179–185 Short-Term Target: $195–205 Mid-Term Target Target: $270–280 (or Retest ATH) Max Downside Estimate: -5 to -7% Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $171 📌 SPY Current Level: $517.99 Short-Term Target: $548–556 Mid-Term Target: Retest ATH ($612+) Max Further Downside Estimate: -3 to -5% from low Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $485 📌 Note: Volume on reversal was highest since Covid crash, signaling serious accumulation. 📉 What This Could Mean Trump’s pressure campaign is likely aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates. The 90-day pause was meant to cool global reaction — while keeping pressure on China. However, if yields keep rising and inflation picks back up, the Fed might get stuck, causing even more market instability. This isn't just a tariff tantrum — it's a chess match with real capital on the line. 🔮 Final Word We're in the middle of the unraveling, and the market is still testing the gains made during the relief rally. But I’m more confident than ever in my thesis — unless another macro shock comes into play. 📉 We now have: 2 matching 20%+ drops (2018 + 2025) Matching double bottoms Trump-driven catalysts unfolding 📲 The markets will react more to Trump's feed than to Powell’s tone or CPI reports. That said, this isn't a guarantee. If Trump loses control of this chaos, or geopolitical escalation spills over — the downside isn't out of the question. The only certainty right now: The market is watching one man. #TrumpIndex #SPY #IWM #MacroNarrative #GoldenTweet #SilverTweet #MarketCycle #Fibonacci #Tariffs #TradingViewIdeas
AMEX:SPYLong
by Papi_Jammin
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 10, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariff Pause and Increased Tariffs on China: President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most trading partners but increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. This move led to a surge in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 rising by 9.5% and the Dow Jones by 7.9%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Retaliatory Tariffs: In response, China imposed additional tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods, escalating trade tensions and impacting global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 0.1%​ Previous: 0.2%​ Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, indicating inflation trends. ​ 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 219,000​ Previous: 225,000​ Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions. ​ 🗣️ Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Testifies to Senate (10:00 AM ET): Provides insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on economic conditions and monetary policy. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Is SPY Positioned for a Rebound or Continued Decline?Data Speaks About SPY: 1️⃣ Trading above key support zone (480/495): The stock is holding above critical levels, which suggests a potential for stability or a rebound if these levels hold. 2️⃣ Below 10-day MA: Currently trading below the 10-day moving average, indicating short-term bearish sentiment and lack of upward momentum. 3️⃣ Failed attempt to re-enter downward channel after sharp decline: Despite a brief attempt to recover, the price failed to re-enter the downward channel, signaling persistent selling pressure. 🔽 Outlook: While the stock shows oversold conditions, the bearish momentum is still intact. However, as long as it stays above the 480/495 support zone, there’s potential for a rebound.
AMEX:SPY
by Quantific-Solutions
The "Bearish" Short-term Outlook on the marketI apologize - this video was made mid-market yesterday and took a while to download for some reason. So we did subsequently close below the gap and continue downward wherein we closed the multi-day cup at the former low. I am shorting this overnight and allowing for the subsequent liquidity build to happen (if necessary) before shorting again. There is plenty of more room to the downside if our strong selling was proven (which it seems it was with the incoming gap down). Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by ReigningTrades
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 9, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of New U.S. Tariffs: As of April 9, the U.S. has imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. 🛢️📉 Oil Prices Decline Sharply: In response to escalating trade tensions, oil prices have fallen nearly 4%, reaching their lowest levels since early 2021. Brent crude dropped to $60.69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $57.22. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: 0.8%​ Indicates the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers, reflecting supply chain dynamics.​ 🗣️ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET): Remarks may shed light on economic conditions and policy perspectives.​ 📝 FOMC Meeting Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET): Provides detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy deliberations from the March meeting.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 8, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Release: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release its Small Business Optimism Index for March at 6:00 AM ET. This index provides insights into the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the U.S. economy. 🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches: ​San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak at 8:00 AM ET. ​ ​Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver remarks at 7:00 PM ET. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET): Forecast: 100.7​ Previous: 102.8​ Assesses the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the economy. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 7–11, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 New U.S. Tariffs Begin April 9: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — 10% on all imports, 25%+ on key sectors — could stir volatility. 🇨🇳📦 China Retaliates April 10: A 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods raises trade war fears and inflation concerns. 🏦💰 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will report. Markets will watch closely for financial health signals. 📉📊 March CPI Report Coming April 10: Inflation data could sway the Fed’s rate path. Forecasts call for a 0.1% increase. ⚠️ Volatility Alert: Piper Sandler projects a possible 5.6% move in the S&P 500 this week — up or down. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 7: 🗣️ Fed Gov. Kugler Speaks (10:30 AM ET) 💳 Consumer Credit (3:00 PM ET) — Forecast: $15.5B | Prev: $18.1B 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Biz Optimism (6:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 100.7 🗣️ Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks (8:00 AM ET) 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.4% | Prev: 0.8% 🗣️ Fed’s Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET) 📝 FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📉 Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 219K 📊 CPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.1% | Prev: 0.2% 🗣️ Fed Gov. Bowman Testifies (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Friday, April 11: 🏭 PPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.2% | Prev: 0.0% 🗣️ Fed’s Musalem Speaks (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY going down down downI just make simple technical charts, and have no idea about matters at play from leaders in plain sight as well as those behind the curtains. Things can only crash when they have been inflated. So far SPY is still in long term uptrend. Only when it drops below the thick blue lower line and stay below, it will be a down trend to me. RSI on the daily hangs around 23. Switch to the monthly chart and the RSI is only at 50 yet. Plenty of room to go down! Remember, the all time highs of 2021 and 2023 were around 450. Fridays close was at 505!
AMEX:SPYShort
by REDDLINER
1
Post-Liberation Day Sell-Off – Crash or Correction?Liberation Day has turned into a dramatic "blow the markets back out" day for the SPY , with a significant daily drop of nearly 6%, slicing decisively below the critical 200-day moving average at $574.46. Historically, breaking below the 200-day MA is a strong bearish signal, indicating potential further downside momentum. The previously identified key bearish pivot, the "Best Price Short" at $565.16, served as a crucial resistance level from which sellers aggressively stepped in, intensifying today's sell-off. Given the current bearish sentiment, the next immediate downside targets without a significant bounce (dead-cat bounce) include: Half 1 Short (Momentum target): $505.28 (already tested) High Vol Momentum Target 1a: $497.66 Half 2 Short (secondary bearish momentum): $486.41 Extended Momentum Target (HH Vol Momo Target 2a): $475.16 For traders who missed the initial move, look to re-enter shorts if there's a modest retracement toward the previously broken "Weeks High Short" at $520.16, maintaining tight risk control with stops ideally set just above the "Best Price Short" ($565.16). Critical levels summary: Ideal Short Re-entry Zone: $520.16 Profit Targets: $497.66, $486.41, and ultimate $475.16 Stop Loss Area: Slightly above $565.16 Major Broken Support (Resistance now): 200-day MA at $574.46 Today's significant volume spike further reinforces bearish conviction. RSI is deeply oversold at 23.24, suggesting caution for potential short-term bounce, but any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless there's a substantial political or economic pivot soon. These levels are algorithmically defined, designed to remove emotions from trading. Trade responsibly, adhere to your strategy, and protect your capital.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
Market Falls comparison of the last 25 yearsBetween 2000-2019 the market had 7 big falls. Since the Pandemic in 2020, the market has fallen 2 times and currently experiencing the 3rd big fall. Although the current and last two falls seem big, percentwise have not been as big as the ones from 2000 and 2008. Get ready for the current market to continue falling for the next 2-3 months and it will still only feel like a 20% correction, nowhere as big as the 3 biggest falls from the last 25 years.
AMEX:SPYShort
by abner.amador